MLB 2018 Season

[Lennys Tap]

I've been wondering if the Yanks, Sox, and Astros are really that great or just playing an overall weak AL.  Probably a mixture of both.

The American League is a little down this year. That said, they have been the dominant league for a long, long time. Since inter league play began in 1997, the AL has won that contest 17 of 21 years, including the last 14 in a row. All told the AL was 316 games over .500 vs the NL beginning this year. In that same time the AL has won 18 All Star games to the NL's 3. World Series are closer, 11-10 in the AL's favor - but AL teams are 64-52 in WS games in that period. So when NL fans call the AL "weak", I smile.

[MerrittsMustache]

Since our bullpen talk 2 games ago...

Cubs relievers: 7.2 IP, 12 H, 6 ER, 1 BSv, 1 Loss

Brewers relievers*: 4.2 IP, 14 H, 11 ER, 1 Loss

Maybe we should all be concerned 


* - not counting position players who pitched

[NWarsh]

Since our bullpen talk 2 games ago...

Cubs relievers: 7.2 IP, 12 H, 6 ER, 1 BSv, 1 Loss

Brewers relievers*: 4.2 IP, 14 H, 11 ER, 1 Loss

Maybe we should all be concerned 


* - not counting position players who pitched

At lease the innings are down.....

[wadesworld]

At lease the innings are down.....

And in the Brewers case Burnes is probably the only reliever who will see meaningful action in games that are still in the balance that gave up any runs the past 2 games, unless it's an extra innings game and you're running thin on pitchers.

[CTWarrior]

The American League is a little down this year. That said, they have been the dominant league for a long, long time. Since inter league play began in 1997, the AL has won that contest 17 of 21 years, including the last 14 in a row. All told the AL was 316 games over .500 vs the NL beginning this year. In that same time the AL has won 18 All Star games to the NL's 3. World Series are closer, 11-10 in the AL's favor - but AL teams are 64-52 in WS games in that period. So when NL fans call the AL "weak", I smile.

The Yankees, Astros and Red Sox have a .649 winning percentage vs. the NL, and a .652 winning percentage against the AL.  I think they're just good.

The NL has won 52% of interleague games this year (115-106), the equivalent of 84-78 over a 162 game season for a single team, which is pretty good.  Season is not over but with way more AL teams selling off because they have no chance, the gap figures to get bigger rather than smaller.  The last 14 years that Lenny mentions are shown below: 

2004  American  252  127  125  .504 
2005  American  252  136  116  .540 
2006  American  252  154    98  .611 
2007  American  252  137  115  .544 
2008  American  252  149  103  .591 
2009  American  252  138  114  .548 
2010  American  252  134  118  .532 
2011  American  252  131  121  .520 
2012  American  252  142  110  .563 
2013  American  300  154  146  .513 
2014  American  300  163  137  .543 
2015  American  300  167  133  .557 
2016  American  300  165  135  .550 
2017  American  300  160  140  .533 

In 2006 the difference between the American League and the National League was about the same as the difference between the National League and Triple A.  (The record translates to 99-63 for a 162 game season).  But that's the beauty of baseball.  The St. Louis Cardinals, who finished 83-78 in perhaps the weakest NL ever, a team that undoubtedly would have finished under .500 in the AL (they were 5-10 in interleague play and were barely over .500 overall), rolled to the World Series title in 5 games over Detroit, who finished 95-67 (including 15-3 against the NL).

These things are cyclical and I think the NL has finally caught up and could widen the gap for the next couple years.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Since our bullpen talk 2 games ago...

Cubs relievers: 7.2 IP, 12 H, 6 ER, 1 BSv, 1 Loss

Brewers relievers*: 4.2 IP, 14 H, 11 ER, 1 Loss

Maybe we should all be concerned 


* - not counting position players who pitched

Since the concern brought up was innings pitched in a season, here are the total innings pitched by the players who gave up runs in the past two games for the Brewers:

Taylor Williams: 42.2
Matt Albers: 30.0
Corbin Burnes: 9.0

[MerrittsMustache]

Since the concern brought up was innings pitched in a season, here are the total innings pitched by the players who gave up runs in the past two games for the Brewers:

Taylor Williams: 42.2
Matt Albers: 30.0
Corbin Burnes: 9.0

It doesn't all come down to innings and you're not wrong. However...

Williams threw 51.3 innings (MLB & AAA) last season after missing both 2015 and 2016 recovery from Tommy John surgery.

Albers missed 6 weeks with a shoulder injury and has allowed 8 ER in 1.1 IP since his return (3 games). He was mentioned in glow's post as part of the bullpen depth.

Burnes also pitched 78.2 innings in AAA, where he's been a starter so innings shouldn't be a big concern for him.


Overworked bullpens aren't specific to the Brewers and I'm not trying to pick on the Brewers. There are a lot of relievers around the league that are overworked and many are going to wear down in August and September. For all the new ways of thinking about starting closers and "bullpen games," etc, starting pitching still matters A LOT for teams in contention.

[buckchuckler]

Albers missed 6 weeks with a shoulder injury and has allowed 8 ER in 1.1 IP since his return (3 games). He was mentioned in glow's post as part of the bullpen depth.

As someone that has watched quite a bit of Matt Albers, I would hate to rely on him on a playoff caliber team.  In my experience watching him, he was defined by stretches of dominance, and stretches of being battered like a perch on Friday.

His career ERA is about a run and a half higher in the second half.  That is an immense difference.  His BAA, SLG and OPS all rise significantly in the second half.  He has a track record of 13 seasons and over 500 appearances.  None of those things state a case for Albers being a dominant (or anything other than average at best) reliever. 

That is why I think Soria was such a great add for the Brewers.  Because between Knebel, Hader, Jeffress, and Soria, they have bullpen depth that can dominate in a playoff game from the 5th or 6th inning.  Still think they should have gotten a starter though... Happ, Lynn, Hamels... none were that expensive.  And of course, Archer would have been instantly penciled in as a Game 1 or Wild Card starter.  But that time has passed. 

[real chili 83]

Go cubs

[MUEng92]

Presented without comment

http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/08/03/the-throw-beat-him-by-a-mile-but-el-mago-does-it-again/

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Presented without comment

http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/08/03/the-throw-beat-him-by-a-mile-but-el-mago-does-it-again/

As of today he's a legit MVP candidate.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

Presented without comment

http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/08/03/the-throw-beat-him-by-a-mile-but-el-mago-does-it-again/

It's cool, but not worth the risk of making the first out at 3rd base.  (Addison Russell just did that to lose a game three days ago).

[real chili 83]

Just a beautiful day at the Friendly Confines. And, a W.

[real chili 83]

Effing 2 hour commute to Burr Ridge.

2 effing hours.

[MerrittsMustache]

It's cool, but not worth the risk of making the first out at 3rd base.  (Addison Russell just did that to lose a game three days ago).

1) Russell was safe. No idea how that call was overturned.

2) They didn’t lose because of that.

3) Maddon doesn’t care about making the first out (or third) at third base. He likes aggressive base-running.

[Lennys Tap]

3) Maddon doesn’t care about making the first out (or third) at third base. He likes aggressive base-running.

I don't believe this is true because anyone who thinks this way lacks any understanding about probabilities within the game. A sabermatrician like Theo would never hire a guy that dense.

Being aggressive is fine. Being aggressive when it hurts your team's chances to score runs is just being reckless - and stupid.

[DegenerateDish]

deGrom WAR 6.5
deGrom wins 5

[#UnleashSean]

The American League is a little down this year. That said, they have been the dominant league for a long, long time. Since inter league play began in 1997, the AL has won that contest 17 of 21 years, including the last 14 in a row. All told the AL was 316 games over .500 vs the NL beginning this year. In that same time the AL has won 18 All Star games to the NL's 3. World Series are closer, 11-10 in the AL's favor - but AL teams are 64-52 in WS games in that period. So when NL fans call the AL "weak", I smile.

What does any of that have to do with this year?

[Lennys Tap]

What does any of that have to do with this year?

It means that an overwhelming long term trend is still in place that says the AL is superior and chances are that the NL's inter league edge this year is an aberration. Maybe not, of course, but the AL already won the All Star game and I wouldn't spend any money you have bet on the NL in the WS just yet.

[#UnleashSean]

It means that an overwhelming long term trend is still in place that says the AL is superior and chances are that the NL's inter league edge this year is an aberration. Maybe not, of course, but the AL already won the All Star game and I wouldn't spend any money you have bet on the NL in the WS just yet.
[/quote
So there's a few good teams in the al and a lot of bad ones this year? Okay? I'm super confused on what 2016 has to do with this year and what the allstar game has anything to do with.

[TallTitan34]

Are we sure a scooper isn’t running the Brewers twitter account?

https://twitter.com/bleachernation/status/1026110271184691201?s=21

[GGGG]

Are we sure a scooper isn’t running the Brewers twitter account?

https://twitter.com/bleachernation/status/1026110271184691201?s=21

I'm 99% certain they were both joking around.  Look at the Rockies entire account. 

[GGGG]

Put it this way, no one running a MLB twitter account is going to legitimately say this:

https://twitter.com/Rockies/status/1025939205891883008

Feel better? As every kindergarten teacher says, “You don’t have to blow out someone else’s candle to make yours shine brighter.”

[wadesworld]

Two teams exchanging jabs at each other on social media. How inappropriate.

[jsglow]

I have 3 observations:

1) The Crws is going to benefit from a lighter than normal schedule the rest of the way.  Only 48 games with at least one off date every week.  They are almost at a point where they could go to a 4 man rotation.  I'd expect Freddy to get skipped a couple of times to keep his innings from getting too high.

2) Has Yelich upped his game so much since the All-Star break that he's become an MVP candidate?  I haven't studied it but it's not crazy talk.

3) Despite what I said 2-3 pages ago, Albers might find himself DFAed if he doesn't get this squared up soon.  If Couns can't count on him with a 6 run lead......