MLB 2018 Season

[GrimmReaper33]

I was going to post on this subject - except from the Brewers side of things. Don't know if you (like me) wanted them to try to sign Darvish or Cobb or Chatwood or Lynn, etc., but Stearns showed why he is where he is and I'm just a schmuck on a message board. Chacin has been the best FA signing of the entire off-season.

Lorenzo Cain says Hi.  Which just goes to show how good Stearns has been..

[MerrittsMustache]

Lorenzo Cain says Hi.  Which just goes to show how good Stearns has been..

JD Martinez, Eric Hosmer and, oddly enough, Jake Arrieta are also waving hello...while Logan Morrison and Alex Cobb are hiding their faces hoping that no one sees them.

Also, let's not get carried away. Chacin has been very good but he's a 30yo journeyman who's on his sixth team in the past 5 seasons and has a FIP of 4.21 during that time. He's a solid #4 or maybe 3 starter but history tells us that his ERA isn't going to be in the mid-3's for all that much longer.

[buckchuckler]

Dylan Covey's last 3 starts were against the first place Brewers, Red Sox and Indians.  His numbers:  1.00 ERA 18 IP, 4 BB, 19 K.  Wins against Chris Sale and Trevor Bauer.

^^^ From a Chuch Garfien tweet.  Covey continues to roll!

The Sox are 15-15 in their last 30.  Get the AL Central title ready.

[Its DJOver]

JD Martinez, Eric Hosmer and, oddly enough, Jake Arrieta are also waving hello...while Logan Morrison and Alex Cobb are hiding their faces hoping that no one sees them.

Also, let's not get carried away. Chacin has been very good but he's a 30yo journeyman who's on his sixth team in the past 5 seasons and has a FIP of 4.21 during that time. He's a solid #4 or maybe 3 starter but history tells us that his ERA isn't going to be in the mid-3's for all that much longer.

The same way the the Brewers are a .500 team that have just had a hot 2 1/2 months?

[MerrittsMustache]

The same way the the Brewers are a .500 team that have just had a hot 2 1/2 months?

Based on their metrics at the time, the Brewers were projected to be about a .500 team but they were 10 games over. They're still playing slightly better than their metrics but it's much closer than it was a month ago. I still don't think they'll win 90 games (and neither does FanGraphs https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings)

Let me ask you this: Do you expect Chacin to have an ERA around 3.50 when the season ends?

[Jockey]

JD Martinez, Eric Hosmer and, oddly enough, Jake Arrieta are also waving hello...while Logan Morrison and Alex Cobb are hiding their faces hoping that no one sees them.

Also, let's not get carried away. Chacin has been very good but he's a 30yo journeyman who's on his sixth team in the past 5 seasons and has a FIP of 4.21 during that time. He's a solid #4 or maybe 3 starter but history tells us that his ERA isn't going to be in the mid-3's for all that much longer.

I didn't say he was the best player.

For the money, he has been the best value so far. I meant to say "among pitchers" in the original post, but......

[Its DJOver]

Based on their metrics at the time, the Brewers were projected to be about a .500 team but they were 10 games over. They're still playing slightly better than their metrics but it's much closer than it was a month ago. I still don't think they'll win 90 games (and neither does FanGraphs https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings)

Let me ask you this: Do you expect Chacin to have an ERA around 3.50 when the season ends?

If he can stay healthy I don't see why not.  His career ERA is 3.89, and if he continues to be in situations where he only has to face the oppositions order twice, which has been the strategy that Couns has been generally sticking with, this should be an above average year for him.  He might not be able to stick in the 3.3s like he is right now, but his pitch count hasn't been as high other quality starters, which suggests that he won't fade as much in the dog days.

[MerrittsMustache]

If he can stay healthy I don't see why not.  His career ERA is 3.89, and if he continues to be in situations where he only has to face the oppositions order twice, which has been the strategy that Couns has been generally sticking with, this should be an above average year for him.  He might not be able to stick in the 3.3s like he is right now, but his pitch count hasn't been as high other quality starters, which suggests that he won't fade as much in the dog days.

Fair enough. You have a solid points though I still disagree. However, as a life-long Cubs fan, I can obviously respect your optimistic fandom.

[jsglow]

JD Martinez, Eric Hosmer and, oddly enough, Jake Arrieta are also waving hello...while Logan Morrison and Alex Cobb are hiding their faces hoping that no one sees them.

Also, let's not get carried away. Chacin has been very good but he's a 30yo journeyman who's on his sixth team in the past 5 seasons and has a FIP of 4.21 during that time. He's a solid #4 or maybe 3 starter but history tells us that his ERA isn't going to be in the mid-3's for all that much longer.

6-0 with a 2.66 ERA over his past dozen starts.  Yep.  Chacin AND the Crew are on the brink of falling apart.  I don't even know why they show up every day.     

[jsglow]

I was going to post on this subject - except from the Brewers side of things. Don't know if you (like me) wanted them to try to sign Darvish or Cobb or Chatwood or Lynn, etc., but Stearns showed why he is where he is and I'm just a schmuck on a message board. Chacin has been the best FA signing of the entire off-season.

Truthfully Jockey, I didn't want a 'big name'.  I was too fearful of another Lohse or Suppan fiasco.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Brewer player or team does better than expected. Merritt says its a temporary hot streak.

Cub player or team does worse than expected.  Merritt says that it's temporary because they know how to win when it matters.

[SaveOD238]

Based on their metrics at the time, the Brewers were projected to be about a .500 team but they were 10 games over. They're still playing slightly better than their metrics but it's much closer than it was a month ago. I still don't think they'll win 90 games (and neither does FanGraphs https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings)

Let me ask you this: Do you expect Chacin to have an ERA around 3.50 when the season ends?

They might come down to earth a little, but I really highly doubt that a team that is 14 over .500 over the first 68 games will play 2 under .500 the last 94.  Fangraphs thinks that the Cardinals, Angels, D-Backs, As, Rockies, Giants, Pirates, Twins, Blue Jays, and Mets all will have better W% than the Brewers for the rest of the season.  Something is wrong with their formula that underestimates what the Crew has and will do.

FiveThirtyEight says 92-70 (and still three behind the Cubs), which seems far more reasonable. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/

[jsglow]

Brewer player or team does better than expected. Merritt says its a temporary hot streak.

Cub player or team does worse than expected.  Merritt says that it's temporary because they know how to win when it matters.

But let's remember not to get too far ahead.  What was it, 2015 when the Crew had won 50 by my birthday at the end of June?  Lots and lots of baseball left.

Anyone heard anything about Nelson lately?  Long tossing?

[jsglow]

They might come down to earth a little, but I really highly doubt that a team that is 14 over .500 over the first 68 games will play 2 under .500 the last 94.  Fangraphs thinks that the Cardinals, Angels, D-Backs, As, Rockies, Giants, Pirates, Twins, Blue Jays, and Mets all will have better W% than the Brewers for the rest of the season.  Something is wrong with their formula that underestimates what the Crew has and will do.

FiveThirtyEight says 92-70 (and still three behind the Cubs), which seems far more reasonable. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/

I thought the same thing too and wondered how their formula was driven because that does seem far fetched, especially after the trading deadline when I think historically winners do more winning while losers do more losing.

[MerrittsMustache]

Brewer player or team does better than expected. Merritt says its a temporary hot streak.

Cub player or team does worse than expected.  Merritt says that it's temporary because they know how to win when it matters.

Forgive me for believing in the team with a young core, 3 straight NLCS appearances and a World Series title while hesitating to buy-in on an inexperienced veteran team that faltered down the stretch last season 

[Jockey]

But let's remember not to get too far ahead.  What was it, 2015 when the Crew had won 50 by my birthday at the end of June?  Lots and lots of baseball left.

Anyone heard anything about Nelson lately?  Long tossing?

Listened to an interview with Brewers announcer Jeff Levering yesterday. He said he does not expect Nelson to pitch this year. I don't know if he has any inside info.

[wadesworld]

Forgive me for believing in the team with a young core, 3 straight NLCS appearances and a World Series title while hesitating to buy-in on an inexperienced veteran team that faltered down the stretch last season 

The team that "faltered" to the tune of 86 wins when they were projected to lose 100 games by Bleacher Report, 90 games by USA Today, 89 games by FanGraphs, etc. going into the season.  And they didn't add anything significant in the offseason or anything.

They had a .555 winning percentage in September (and their 1 game in October) after having a .522 winning percentage going into September and a .549 winning percentage at the All Star break.  Not quite sure where the narrative that they "faltered down the stretch last season" is coming from.

[TallTitan34]

The team that "faltered" to the tune of 86 wins when they were projected to lose 100 games by Bleacher Report, 90 games by USA Today, 89 games by FanGraphs, etc. going into the season.  And they didn't add anything significant in the offseason or anything.

They had a .555 winning percentage in September (and their 1 game in October) after having a .522 winning percentage going into September and a .549 winning percentage at the All Star break.  Not quite sure where the narrative that they "faltered down the stretch last season" is coming from.

They had a 5.5 game lead at the All-Star Break and missed the playoffs. I would say that's faltering down the stretch.

[MerrittsMustache]

The team that "faltered" to the tune of 86 wins when they were projected to lose 100 games by Bleacher Report, 90 games by USA Today, 89 games by FanGraphs, etc. going into the season.  And they didn't add anything significant in the offseason or anything.

They had a .555 winning percentage in September (and their 1 game in October) after having a .522 winning percentage going into September and a .549 winning percentage at the All Star break.  Not quite sure where the narrative that they "faltered down the stretch last season" is coming from.

The Brewers were up 5.5 games in the division at the All-Star Break, lost that lead 12 games later, played .500 baseball for the final 70 games of the season, including a 2-5 stretch in late September and finished 5.5 games back in the division. That's an 11-game swing in 2.5 months. That's where the narrative that they "faltered down the stretch last season" is coming from.

[TallTitan34]

 It's not exactly a hot take to believe the Cubs are going to win the division.

[jsglow]

Forgive me for believing in the team with a young core, 3 straight NLCS appearances and a World Series title while hesitating to buy-in on an inexperienced veteran team that faltered down the stretch last season 

I don't think anyone is selling the Cubs short.  They should win the division.  They could win the Pennant.  And as was just said, the Crew really didn't falter.  They just weren't good enough to quite make the postseason.  Assuming that they continue to play decent ball, this year they very likely will.  That's pretty darn impressive.

[TallTitan34]

Also, MLB took down the video because the CBA with the umpires does not allow for mic'd umpires. They are trying to figure out where the video even came from.

[TallTitan34]

I don't think anyone is selling the Cubs short.  They should win the division.  They could win the Pennant.  And as was just said, the Crew really didn't falter.  They just weren't good enough to quite make the postseason.  Assuming that they continue to play decent ball, this year they very likely will.  That's pretty darn impressive.

No, they faltered.

[jsglow]

The Brewers were up 5.5 games in the division at the All-Star Break, lost that lead 12 games later, played .500 baseball for the final 70 games of the season, including a 2-5 stretch in late September and finished 5.5 games back in the division. That's an 11-game swing in 2.5 months. That's where the narrative that they "faltered down the stretch last season" is coming from.

But honestly, isn't that really more of a story about how the initially struggling Cubs picked up the pace?  The Cubs were 43-45 at the All Star break.  And the Crew had a .555 winning percentage in September as was pointed out.  The Cubs were simply better and played that way in the second half.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Sigh, I was just razzing Merritt a little bit. Didn't mean this to be another pissing match.

The Brewers didn't falter down the stretch. They faltered right after the all star break. They lost 11/14 and then played pretty much even with the cubs the rest of the way