MLB 2018 Season

[MUBurrow]

Pump the brakes a little bit. The Brewers are basically a .500 team according to their metrics (Pythag W-L: 23-21). They've played the 21st most-difficult schedule so far and they also aren't going to continuing winning 64% of their road games. They've been a fun, overachieving team so far but there's still a long way to go.

I very much agree with this - its a weird time to be a Brewers fan.  The Brewers have been a borderline contender for nearly a year and a half now, but they still don't feel good.  Chief culprit is a pitching staff that always feels held together with sticks and glue, yet has been the strength of the team over the past 200 games. Part of that, lead by the Hader, might be part of a more general, leaguewide decline of strong starting pitching that goes deep into games, replaced by extended and creative bullpen usage (Brewers 'pen has been the strength of the team over this run). 

But looking at the farm after the Yelich trade, more than half of the top guys are already here, and there's no real power on the way. Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta and Houser could all contribute to bolster pitching, but with the exception of more table setting help from Hiura or stable OFs in Phillips or Ray, the lineup from within is what it is for this competitive window.  My greater concern isn't whether they Brewers win the division this year, but whether there's enough talent left on the farm (or in the wallet) for this lineup to really instill consistent confidence. To win, the Brewers will almost certainly have to find success in going against the grain, and having high avg and obp guys like Cain, Yelich and maybe Arcia, Phillips, Hiura win in the face of the three true outcomes trend.

[jsglow]

Pump the brakes a little bit. The Brewers are basically a .500 team according to their metrics (Pythag W-L: 23-21). They've played the 21st most-difficult schedule so far and they also aren't going to continuing winning 64% of their road games. They've been a fun, overachieving team so far but there's still a long way to go.

You can cite all the advanced metrics you want.  The fact is that they've played with multiple significant injuries to key position players and have literally lost half of their starting rotation.  Yet somehow, they're in a virtual tie for first place.  I personally believe they'll end up with more wins than last year.  Will it be enough?  Who knows.  But they're absolutely not a .500 team at the 1/4 pole as you or some computer claims.  They're also not 'overachieving'.  They are almost certainly a better team than the one that won 86 games last year.
 

[Plaque Lives Matter!]

This is nuts.

https://es.pn/2wLjQbT

[Jockey]

This is nuts.

https://es.pn/2wLjQbT

I'm just glad Trout doesn't play in NY or Boston, or we would see a dozen stories like this every day.

Despite the fact that he has "only" 2 MVPs thus far, he is clearly the best player in the world. He had his "worst" year last year (7.3 WAR), so it's not surprising to think that his career year will be the best ever.

[MerrittsMustache]

This is nuts.

https://es.pn/2wLjQbT

Also nuts, Trout's most similar batters through age 26...

Frank Robinson
Ken Griffey
Mickey Mantle
Hank Aaron

[jsglow]

Yep, he's pretty damn good.

[buckchuckler]

Also nuts, Trout's most similar batters through age 26...

Frank Robinson
Ken Griffey
Mickey Mantle
Hank Aaron

Are those guys good?

Being able to watch Trout play a couple times a week is worth the MLB.tv subscription.

[MUBurrow]

You can cite all the advanced metrics you want.  The fact is that they've played with multiple significant injuries to key position players and have literally lost half of their starting rotation.  Yet somehow, they're in a virtual tie for first place.  I personally believe they'll end up with more wins than last year.  Will it be enough?  Who knows.  But they're absolutely not a .500 team at the 1/4 pole as you or some computer claims.  They're also not 'overachieving'.  They are almost certainly a better team than the one that won 86 games last year.

Right now the Brewers have the 7th best record in baseball. Do you think they're the 7th most talented team?

[MUfan12]

It depends on what standard you're looking at for the Crew overachieving. Fully healthy, I think they're close to this level. Maybe a game or two worse, given their luck (record in one-run games has been superb). There's due to be some regression there.

But given the injuries, they're definitely overachieving what they should be doing. Soft schedule helps, as does the bullpen being insanely good.

[Jockey]

Right now the Brewers have the 7th best record in baseball. Do you think they're the 7th most talented team?

I texted Denny Green and he said "You are what your record says you are".

Bullpen is as good as any in MLB. OF WAR is better than every team except NYY, Angels, and Bosox. Excellent depth. 2B and Starting pitching are the biggest issues.

I don't know if they are the 7th most talented team, but I would say borderline top 10. And the manager is as good as they come.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

Even with the great start, the Brewers would have to beat Arrieta in a one-game playoff if the season ended May 17.

[cheebs09]

Even with the great start, the Brewers would have to beat Arrieta in a one-game playoff if the season ended May 17.



Can you imagine how how the takes on this board would be in that scenario?

[jsglow]

Right now the Brewers have the 7th best record in baseball. Do you think they're the 7th most talented team?

I don't know.  But over 162 I will.

Even with the great start, the Brewers would have to beat Arrieta in a one-game playoff if the season ended May 17.

Oh, not the Cubs?   

[jsglow]

I texted Denny Green and he said "You are what your record says you are".

Bullpen is as good as any in MLB. OF WAR is better than every team except NYY, Angels, and Bosox. Excellent depth. 2B and Starting pitching are the biggest issues.

I don't know if they are the 7th most talented team, but I would say borderline top 10. And the manager is as good as they come.

Totally fair.  Now perhaps 2B is better than we think it is with Villar and some combo of Perez, Saladino and Sogard.  Plus a rotation that's Anderson, Davies, Chacin, a healthy Nelson (we can hope) and either Guerra or Miley is probably better than average.  Throw in guys like Woodruff, Suter and maybe even Peralta and perhaps there's enough.  A team like MKE can never buy pitching talent except on a 'rental'.  To win long term, they have to 'home grow' it and I count Freddy as home grown because he was acquired so young.  Now if this year's C.C. is out there for the second half?  Maybe I'd bite.  Two months to decide.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

Oh, not the Cubs?   

In fairness, when the season ends, teams play the same amount of games.  Both the Cubs and Brewers have 18 losses.

[jsglow]

In fairness, when the season ends, teams play the same amount of games.  Both the Cubs and Brewers have 18 losses.

 

[MUBBau]

In fairness, when the season ends, teams play the same amount of games.  Both the Cubs and Brewers have 18 losses.

And the Cubs have managed that in 4 less games than the Brewers!

[MerrittsMustache]

I texted Denny Green and he said "You are what your record says you are".

1) RIP, Denny Green

2) That was a Bill Parcells quote. Denny's quote was "They are who we thought they were!" which is actually the opposite of Parcells' quote since Denny didn't think the Bears were actually as good as their record.

 

[cheebs09]

It will be interesting to see if the Brewers offense is not very good, or just off to a cold start. It seems like Shaw and Santana are heating up. We are starting to get some production out of second base with Villar starting to hit better. Braun has been pretty brutal.

Right now we are putting a lot of stress on our pitching staff. If the offense heats up, they could be pretty dangerous. It will be interesting to see how the bullpen holds up during the second half. Stearns is basically using the full 40-man with a rotating bottom of the bullpen. Counsell is pretty quick to pull starters though.

[JWags85]

Even with the great start, the Brewers would have to beat Arrieta in a one-game playoff if the season ended May 17.

Remember when people wanted Kapler fired 20 games into the season?

Are those guys good?

Being able to watch Trout play a couple times a week is worth the MLB.tv subscription.

He's absolutely incredible, especially considering he came up so young.  But I say it every time it comes up...regardless of sport, is Mike Trout the most forgettable superstar of the modern era?  At least the least marketable.

He's won 2 MVPs and a ROY, made the ASG every full year since he's been up, put up consistently absurd numbers, but he doesn't move the needle.  Most casual sports fans probably wouldn't recognize him on the street, his endorsements are basically nil.  Part of this is because the Angels have been trash, only making the playoffs once in his career and getting promptly swept, but also because he really has no personality and charisma off the field.

Again, it has no bearing on his achievements on the field, but given this age of exposure and marketing, its kind of remarkable.

[Jockey]

1) RIP, Denny Green

2) That was a Bill Parcells quote. Denny's quote was "They are who we thought they were!" which is actually the opposite of Parcells' quote since Denny didn't think the Bears were actually as good as their record.

 

Not surprised I mixed up old coaches - dead or alive.

[Skitch]

I'm not really up on these kind of things but how does what Cano took help someone? I take furosimide and all it does for me is make me pee 10 times a day.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I'm not really up on these kind of things but how does what Cano took help someone? I take furosimide and all it does for me is make me pee 10 times a day.

It's a masking agent.

[MUBurrow]

It will be interesting to see if the Brewers offense is not very good, or just off to a cold start. It seems like Shaw and Santana are heating up. We are starting to get some production out of second base with Villar starting to hit better. Braun has been pretty brutal.

Right now we are putting a lot of stress on our pitching staff. If the offense heats up, they could be pretty dangerous. It will be interesting to see how the bullpen holds up during the second half. Stearns is basically using the full 40-man with a rotating bottom of the bullpen. Counsell is pretty quick to pull starters though.

This mirrors my thoughts exactly. How good or bad IS the Brewers offense? They've definitely had slumps, but they're also not built like most other successful offenses that rely entirely on the HR, so maybe they feel worse than they really are? The strikeouts are still a concern, which is a big part of why dealing Santana makes sense. I'm afraid the real Arcia (with the bat) is no better than halfway between this year and last year - and even last year he struckout 100 times. This just sort of is what Braun is now. Kind of a late model Joe Mauer with a little more pop. That can be fine, but tough from a guy who only plays corner OF and 1B.

[jsglow]

The Braun die was cast years ago.  Let's hope he can get healthy and contribute because the buyout isn't until 2021.  But the analysis I have seen indicates that he's actually been a 'good deal' from the club's perspective since it was signed in 2011.