Big East Too Early Preview

[willie warrior]

Which changes nothing about my post or my point. You're whining for no reason and willfully ignoring steady and obvious improvement.

Is it whining to want MU to have success? Must be your idea, huh. Steady and obvious improvement? Debatable. yes we made the tournament, only to lose in the first round as we did in the Beast tourney. 20-13 to 19-13 in past two years is not "steady and obvious improvement." And given the way we played in final two games, it is only a stalemate. Yeah, i am glad we got to the dance, but this year's field was weaker than last year. So the jury is still out on Wojo. Tell you what. Define now what steady and obvious improvement will look like this year as compared to last: in Beast Play; in making the Dance, in the Beast tourney and record. Then we can use that as a basis as the gospel according to you.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

'Nova win and comeback was an aberration.   Name another game not only last year, last 5, or last 10, where they trailed 33-34 minutes, almost entirely by double digits, only to come back and win?   Nobody does that with regularity.  Sure other losses you point out could have easily been flipped to W's, but instead just go into trend of losses we've seen far too often under Wojo. 

I'd give far more weight to argument about giving credit to making NCAA's without HE, were there have been more foundation for their NCAA selection than 7 minutes vs 'Nova.  Rest of their body of work impressed selection committee to nothing more than 1 seed better than Providence, which played in Dayton.  So what do you think committee does with them taking out an aberrational win over team chosen as #1 seed of the entire tournament?!

I agree with progress, and I to believe he has a lot of really nice players who can compete for top of the conference.  I just have serious doubts Wojo will take them another level higher based on current data.  He's had the talent last two seasons to do much more than what results have been.

Yes, everything needed to break just right for the win over Villanova.  But the game at Providence went the other way, where 7 bad minutes cost MU a win. It was 10 bad minutes against Pitt.  The team was great for a half at Butler.

I view building those leads in the first place as a positive.  So while I can't point to any other comeback wins like Nova, I see signs of high level play. Just need to improve consistency and hold leads.

This year, we have several obstacles: Youth, lack of strength for Cain and Elliott, Morrow sitting out as a transfer, Froling out first semester...all things that should be improved on by next year.  I'm viewing this year as a tread water year. 10 BE wins, make the tournament.  Then make another jump next year.  But I realize the BE is tough and it's possible to fall short this year. Will have to see how it plays out.

[GGGG]

'Nova win and comeback was an aberration.   Name another game not only last year, last 5, or last 10, where they trailed 33-34 minutes, almost entirely by double digits, only to come back and win?   Nobody does that with regularity.  Sure other losses you point out could have easily been flipped to W's, but instead just go into trend of losses we've seen far too often under Wojo. 

You are basing too much on one win.  We also swept an eventual Elite 8 team, including giving them a beat down in their own gym.  It was progress.

[Marcus92]

The idea that you can discount our best wins is ludicrous.

Marquette won 10 games in the Big East and tied for 3rd place in the conference. Our 19 wins included 7 against NCAA teams: Creighton (twice), Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, Villanova and Xavier (twice). That's undeniable. And it wasn't due to luck. MU had a Top 10 offense and proved it could beat anybody in the country. In addition, we didn't have a single loss to a sub-Top 100 team.

My expectations for the future are even higher. Marquette clearly needs to improve its defense and consistency. Our defense was the 2nd worst in the Big East. We lost 5 games by 4 points or less — against Butler, Pittsburgh, Providence (twice) and Seton Hall. And we didn't get results in the postseason, where it counts most.

Success isn't all or nothing. Wojo may not have MU in contention for a Big East title or back in the Final Four just yet. But that's no reason to disregard numerous important and encouraging signs of progress.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I am expecting last year and this upcoming year to be relatively similar from a team quality perspective.  Better team defense offset by less experience... 

Like last year our post season fortunes will be likely dictated by the quality of the field (bubble).  I hope for better but that's about all I think you can expect. 

[brewcity77]

20-13 to 19-13 in past two years is not "steady and obvious improvement."

Maybe if you don't actually pay attention to Marquette basketball and just tally numbers come April 1, it wasn't obvious. This team was much better than the year before.

Defining improvement, next year I'd simply say improved defensive efficiency is most important. Get that with relatively comparable offensive efficiency and another push for a NCAA berth and that's progress. Individual improvement from the kids while setting the table for a big 2018-19.

[Marcus92]

2014-15
0-11 against KenPom Top 25
1-16 against KenPom Top 50
1 win against NCAA teams (Providence)

2015-16
0-6 against KenPom Top 25
5-10 against KenPom Top 50
4 wins against NCAA teams (Butler, Providence x2, Wisconsin)

2016-17
1-6 against KenPom Top 25
6-6 against KenPom Top 50
7 wins against NCAA teams (Creighton x2, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Xavier x2)

Marquette's first Top 25 win since 2013. An increase in quality wins by multiple measures, every year that Wojo's been head coach. If you want to deny that's clear progress, go ahead.

Recognizing the facts doesn't mean I have Wojo-colored glasses. It doesn't mean I'm satisfied with just making the tournament, either.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Maybe if you don't actually pay attention to Marquette basketball and just tally numbers come April 1, it wasn't obvious. This team was much better than the year before.

Defining improvement, next year I'd simply say improved defensive efficiency is most important. Get that with relatively comparable offensive efficiency and another push for a NCAA berth and that's progress. Individual improvement from the kids while setting the table for a big 2018-19.

Last season was, arguably, the best offensive team in Marquette's 100 year history. Since stats have been kept in 1948-49, most points per game, most treys made (2nd in % to a team that had a line closer in), best FT% team (no matta but indicative of the shooting ability across eras), and (more modern) highest KPom Adj Orating at 120.8 (versus 2003 at 116.5). Defensively, this may have been the worst MU team in my lifetime, and certainly in the Modern Statistical Age.

[bilsu]

I think this team could actually be better than last year's team and not make the NCAA tournament. Last year MU took advantage of the breaks it got. Who knows what is going happen this year? For example Howard(or another starter) could miss three critical Big East games, which could result in losses instead of wins. Not making the tournament this year is not necessarily a step backwards. It depends on why we did not make the tournament.

[muwarrior69]

Hmm...are we under estimating Sacar's contribution this coming season? Or is he the 11th or 12th guy off the bench? Wojo must see something there to hold on to him.

[brewcity77]

I think this team could actually be better than last year's team and not make the NCAA tournament. Last year MU took advantage of the breaks it got. Who knows what is going happen this year? For example Howard(or another starter) could miss three critical Big East games, which could result in losses instead of wins. Not making the tournament this year is not necessarily a step backwards. It depends on why we did not make the tournament.

Did we take advantage of the breaks we got? Looking back, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Seton Hall away, Butler away, and Providence twice were all games we were in good position to win. I know people are pointing to the Xavier and Creighton breaks, but we were 311th in the country in luck. Last year's team was a lot closer to being +4 in the win column than -4.

[Herman Cain]

Hmm...are we under estimating Sacar's contribution this coming season? Or is he the 11th or 12th guy off the bench? Wojo must see something there to hold on to him.

I believe Sacar he is going to surprise a lot of people. Sacar is a quality young man who worked hard  his season off.  He will definitely be in the mix to earn the 2/3 minutes available now that  JJJ, Katin and Duane have graduated.

[Daniel]

We will have some offensive weapons.  They key will be rebounds no and defense.   So far, we have not seen a god defensive team in 3 years. What will change this year?  Same staff.  No defensive Zoe ialst brought in.  So have to hope new guys play good D and can learn quickly. 

[geps]

2014-15
0-11 against KenPom Top 25
1-16 against KenPom Top 50
1 win against NCAA teams (Providence)

2015-16
0-6 against KenPom Top 25
5-10 against KenPom Top 50
4 wins against NCAA teams (Butler, Providence x2, Wisconsin)

2016-17
1-6 against KenPom Top 25
6-6 against KenPom Top 50
7 wins against NCAA teams (Creighton x2, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Xavier x2)

Marquette's first Top 25 win since 2013. An increase in quality wins by multiple measures, every year that Wojo's been head coach. If you want to deny that's clear progress, go ahead.

Recognizing the facts doesn't mean I have Wojo-colored glasses. It doesn't mean I'm satisfied with just making the tournament, either.

Interesting we played only 12 vs. top 50 this season and 17 a couple years ago. Schedule seemed better this year.

[GB Warrior]

Hmm...are we under estimating Sacar's contribution this coming season? Or is he the 11th or 12th guy off the bench? Wojo must see something there to hold on to him.

I hope so. If nothing else but to provide defense and rebounding. Or to be a 4th-liner type goon to take out the other team's best player.

[Lennys Tap]

Did we take advantage of the breaks we got? Looking back, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Seton Hall away, Butler away, and Providence twice were all games we were in good position to win. I know people are pointing to the Xavier and Creighton breaks, but we were 311th in the country in luck. Last year's team was a lot closer to being +4 in the win column than -4.

In 2015-16, when we ranked #42 in "luck" (12th percentile), you decried how, if not for some bad luck and close losses, we would have been dancing. In 2016-17, when we ranked #279 (79th percentile) but played the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the conference without their best players and went 4-0, we were again victims of bad luck.

Here are the facts:in the past two years we have been remarkably healthy - good luck. And in the last two years combined we've been in the 45.5th percentile in the "luck" quotient, slightly luckier than average. Add to that the benefit from our opponent's injuries and it's obvious that the bad luck you see through the blue and gold glasses over the last two years is in one case wholly and in another largely a good fan twisting the data.

[Marcus92]

Interesting we played only 12 vs. top 50 this season and 17 a couple years ago. Schedule seemed better this year.

We also played 3 games against Seton Hall, who KenPom ranked #51 — just outside the Top 50.

If you look at the big picture, the two schedules were relatively close. In 2014-15 we played 24 of our 32 games against KenPom Top 100 teams. Last season: 23 of 32 games.

[Spotcheck Billy]

They have Georgetown 10th.  Can't say I disagree.

Raise your hand if you thought the season that DePaul did not finish last would be to a "storied program" like Georgetown.

gotta give Ewing 5 years

[brewcity77]

In 2015-16, when we ranked #42 in "luck" (12th percentile), you decried how, if not for some bad luck and close losses, we would have been dancing. In 2016-17, when we ranked #279 (79th percentile) but played the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the conference without their best players and went 4-0, we were again victims of bad luck.

Here are the facts:in the past two years we have been remarkably healthy - good luck. And in the last two years combined we've been in the 45.5th percentile in the "luck" quotient, slightly luckier than average. Add to that the benefit from our opponent's injuries and it's obvious that the bad luck you see through the blue and gold glasses over the last two years is in one case wholly and in another largely a good fan twisting the data.

http://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankLuck

2015-16 we were #53 in luck. We needed 2-3 more wins to be dancing (probably 3, 2 would've been a NIT lock though). Was it bad luck? No, it was that we needed 2-3 more wins. Sure, it could've been the relatively close DePaul, Belmont, and Creighton losses, but that wasn't a great team by any means and their exclusion wasn't down to luck it was down to not having enough around Ellenson.

Last year we had more games go against us on the flip of a coin than go for us. Nova jumps out, but the only other two wins we had by fewer than 8 points were Fresno and Seton Hall at home, and Fresno we were in control the entire game even if they got the score close by the buzzer. We had an 80% probability of winning in the second half against Pitt, at Seton Hall, at Butler, against Providence, and at Providence.

Also...you don't understand how percentiles work. 12th percentile is very, very bad. 45.5th percentile is not above average.

[Lennys Tap]

Also...you don't understand how percentiles work. 12th percentile is very, very bad. 45.5th percentile is not above average.

I understand how percentiles work. Your assertion (for both 2015-16 and 2016-17) was (at least in the past) that we were unlucky. We actually were in the 12th percentile for bad luck in 2015-16 and the 45.5th percentile for bad luck overall for 15-16 and 16-17 averaged. Another way of saying the same thing is we were in the 88th percentile for good luck (really good) in 2015-16 and the 54.5th percentile averaged over the two years (above average).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Nothing really unique to what's already been said enough.

What has been said? I honestly haven't heard many suggestions on how Wojo could have done better over the past few years. Plenty of complaints but little to no suggestions.

[brewcity77]

I understand how percentiles work. Your assertion (for both 2015-16 and 2016-17) was (at least in the past) that we were unlucky. We actually were in the 12th percentile for bad luck in 2015-16 and the 45.5th percentile for bad luck overall for 15-16 and 16-17 averaged. Another way of saying the same thing is we were in the 88th percentile for good luck (really good) in 2015-16 and the 54.5th percentile averaged over the two years (above average).

I said repeatedly that we were 2-3 games away from being a tournament team in 2016. I said repeatedly from before the start of the season that we needed to win 22-23 games to be a tournament team because of our weak non-conference schedule. Had things broken differently in three specific games (Belmont, DePaul, Creighton) we would have been in, but while that is true, I don't believe I categorized it the way you are describing. Feel free to look through my old posts and prove me wrong.

My contention for 2017 is that we were closer to having more wins than we were to having more losses. In terms of "close" games, which I feel is a two possession or OT game, we had a 3-6 record. That doesn't include the 8-point loss at Butler in which we had an 88.3% chance of winning in the second half. If one of the seasons came down to luck, it was last year.

[brewcity77]

Lennys, since you probably won't look it up, I did. Here's a salient portion of a post of mine from March of 2016, when we pretty much knew we would be out:

First of all, the schedule left us with zero margin for error. Tower points out had we beat Belmont, Creighton, and DePaul at home we'd be in. That's probably true, but those are the ONLY three games we lost that were decided by two possessions or less all season.

Marquette went 7-3 in one possession games and 11-3 in two possession games. Because of the weak schedule and subsequently weak RPI and SOS numbers, we couldn't afford to lose any of the games that were decided in the final minute.

You assert I called us unlucky to not be in. You are misremembering. I pointed out that we were very good in two-possession games. I knew exactly how lucky we were that year and that while we may not have been far from the tourney, it was only because of our success rate in close games.

For what it's worth, our winning percentage in two-possession games went from 78.6% in 2016 to 33.3% in 2017. That's a pretty stark difference in terms of luck.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

On paper 7th place seems about right, though I think the difference between 2nd and 7th is going to be pretty slim.

Some things that can't be measured (well) in paper that could push us up or down.

The luck statistic. Despite being a very unlucky team we managed to make tournament last season.  Assuming regression to the mean could help offset some of our losses.

Lower ranked recruits. Recruiting rankings get pretty inaccurate after the top 40 and very inaccurate after the top 100. If our recruits play to their rankings, we are probably a bubble team. If one or two of them are gems we could be talking about a high seed.

Lack of senior leadership or experience. With only one senior on the roster,  and the one not being a team leader (based on what I've been told)  it could have a negative impact on us.

All Wojo guys. Whether you like em or not,  I think it's pretty obvious that Buzz and Wojo have different styles and recruiting priorities.  The buzz guys embraced Wojo but I do think playing for the coach who recruited you is often a positive thing.  Will it translate into better than expected performances on the court?  We will see.

[Windyplayer]

On paper 7th place seems about right, though I think the difference between 2nd and 7th is going to be pretty slim.

Yep, and it's only right that we are tabbed to finish in 7th. #UnderdogsForLife.