What will Sam's usage be next season?

[cheebs09]

Oh, I'm sure they look at them.  But, watching opponent's games will tell them as much.  Sure Markus Howard has a high eFG%.  But that's because he makes a lot of 3s as they already know.  Opponents will try to move him off the line to make him less effective which would result in a lower eFG%.  Give me some significant examples of how advanced stats help coaches in actual games beyond what they already get from scouring those videos of past games and talking to other coaches, etc?

PS, free throws do matta in the grand scheme of things, if not in a general statistical sense.  Off hand given the recent Gaviitt Games news,, had Ric Cobb hit that FT against Purdue 1969, MU would have won that game and moved on in the NCAAs. Yah, yah..one can point to many things earlier in that game; but the game was lost on that shot.  It mattad!  Many, many example of that since then.

Or they could quickly look at some advanced stats to learn a team's tendencies and then watch the film to see how they achieve those tendencies. That seems to be more efficient.

Plus, based on Paint Touches' work with Synergy, there are a ton of stats out there that we don't even look at that coaches are using to build game plans.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Oh, I'm sure they look at them.  But, watching opponent's games will tell them as much.

See,  I just have to look at scoops takes on who our best defenders are to know that the eye is not reliable.  Scoop listed Haanie, Duane,  and Luke as our best defenders. HC was average, Duane and Luke were two of our worst three. Our best defenders were actually Sammy and Katin. Maybe a coaches eye would be better but the average fan?  No way.

[Nukem2]

Or they could quickly look at some advanced stats to learn a team's tendencies and then watch the film to see how they achieve those tendencies. That seems to be more efficient.

Plus, based on Paint Touches' work with Synergy, there are a ton of stats out there that we don't even look at that coaches are using to build game plans.

Yeah, like the other team is known to play at a slow pace and we want to speed the game up.  Did I hear that over 50 years ago? 

[Nukem2]

See,  I just have to look at scoops takes on who our best defenders are to know that the eye is not reliable.  Scoop listed Haanie, Duane,  and Luke as our best defenders. HC was average, Duane and Luke were two of our worst three. Our best defenders were actually Sammy and Katin. Maybe a coaches eye would be better but the average fan?  No way.

Whatever the stats say, Katin was not a good defender.  He may have been better thane others on the team, but he sure had a lot of matador attempts and bigger guys could shoot over him.  Have you heard of the statistician who drowned in a river that averages 6inches in depth? 

Sure the advanced stats may help supplementally in organization for game planning, but they do nothing in-game for basketball.  As I asked someone earlier, give me a significant example of how advanced stats help a coach in-game?  They are nice for aficionados who want to analyze what happened in depth after a game or over a season.

[Marcus92]

As food for thought, consider Steve Novak's progression between his freshman and sophomore seasons:

2002-03
33 G
512 MIN (15.5 MPG)
12-24 2PT (50.0%)
55-109 3PT (50.5%)
31-33 FT (93.9%)
14.6% Usage
71.1% eFG%
143.5 ORtg
17 AST (0.5 APG, 6.1% ARate)
14.3% TORate
220 PTS (6.7 PPG)

2003-04
31 G
916 MPG (29.5 MPG)
29-83 2PT (34.9%)
89-207 3PT (43.0%)
62-68 FT (91.2%)
18.4% Usage
56.0% eFG%
120.6 ORtg
39 AST (1.3 APG, 9.2% ARate)
15.5% TORate
387 PTS (12.5 PPG)

Doubling his minutes had more to do with Steve's increased production than higher usage (14.6% to 18.4%). But he did take more than 3 times as many 2-pointers and upped his assist rate, suggesting a significantly larger role in the offense.

I was surprised to learn that Steve never exceeded 18.6% usage in his Marquette career. My view is that Sam has a more diverse, well-rounded game and can carry more of the offensive load. We'll see if that holds true.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Whatever the stats say, Katin was not a good defender.  He may have been better thane others on the team, but he sure had a lot of matador attempts and bigger guys could shoot over him.  Have you heard of the statistician who drowned in a river that averages 6inches in depth? 

Sure the advanced stats may help supplementally in organization for game planning, but they do nothing in-game for basketball.  As I asked someone earlier, give me a significant example of how advanced stats help a coach in-game?  They are nice for aficionados who want to analyze what happened in depth after a game or over a season.

I didn't say Katin was a good defender. I said he was second best on our team.  He was only average to above average when compared with the rest of division 1. Despite that,  most people here ranked Duane, HC, and a Luke above him despite HC being meh and the other two being abysmal. The eye test isn't reliable. Stats are always reliable... Provided they are calculated and interpreted correctly.... Which they often aren't.

I've never been a coach so I can't tell you a specific example.  I've been in pregame meetings before and I can tell you that they are absolutely used there. I'd imagine that they can be used in play calling. If I know a specific player has a terrible ppp against pick and roll plays,  I know what player to call the pick against. That theoretically could be picked up by the eye test but it can be observed instantly via advanced stats.

Add others have said,  both advanced stats and the eye test are best used together.

[Nukem2]

I didn't say Katin was a good defender. I said he was second best on our team.  He was only average to above average when compared with the rest of division 1. Despite that,  most people here ranked Duane, HC, and a Luke above him despite HC being meh and the other two being abysmal. The eye test isn't reliable. Stats are always reliable... Provided they are calculated and interpreted correctly.... Which they often aren't.

I've never been a coach so I can't tell you a specific example.  I've been in pregame meetings before and I can tell you that they are absolutely used there. I'd imagine that they can be used in play calling. If I know a specific player has a terrible ppp against pick and roll plays,  I know what player to call the pick against. That theoretically could be picked up by the eye test but it can be observed instantly via advanced stats.

Add others have said,  both advanced stats and the eye test are best used together.

Advanced stats identify pick and roll plays?   That's not a stat.  That's an observation.

[Jay Bee]

Advanced stats identify pick and roll plays?   That's not a stat.  That's an observation.

Oh, it's a stat, bud.

[brewcity77]

Advanced stats identify pick and roll plays?   That's not a stat.  That's an observation.

No, it's not. When analyzed dozens of times, that's a stat. Just like eFG% or rebounding numbers.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Advanced stats identify pick and roll plays?   That's not a stat.  That's an observation.

No, they identify how many points per possession a defender allows when a pick and roll is run against them.  Will help a coach identify who to call the pick on and who to set up the roll for.

[wildbillsb]

omg.....This message replies to almost all the posts at this time.  WTF are you people tallking about?
I don't care the ROI is, i only care that that my beloved alma mater is gaining in making this world better to those whose who follow, and closer to what  achieving the future that what is next to come.

Thanks

bu

[Slim]

So, like FT% no Matta usage by itself no matta. It is a useless stat unless efficiency is examined. Also I find it interesting that turnovers increase your usage %. Therefore usage is useless without evaluating turnover rate as well.

I appreciate these discussions on advanced stats.

[Stretchdeltsig]

The chances of Sam Hauser making the NBA, much less being a lottery pick, are quite remote.  Very skillful, but not terribly athletic.

I mean, do you *watch* the NBA?

Disagree.  Sam is very smooth.  Remember that he was a freshman last year.  Sam can shoot, rebound and at effortless ball.  He is the kind of 6'8" player that you can win with.  Thank God he is a Warrior.  Love his game.

[MUDPT]

I actually think his Ortg will take a step back and will be around 112.  Katin range.

[Marcus92]

I actually think his Ortg will take a step back and will be around 112.  Katin range.

Could be. But I think Sam is a truly elite shooter on another level from Katin — whose career 3-point percentage is 37%, with a career high of 38.6% at USC.

Sam, meanwhile, shot 45.3% from 3-point range in his freshman year, among the Top 10 single-season performances in Marquette history. Sam and Markus could even challenge Steve Novak's all-time school records.

[bilsu]

https://rotogrinders.com/lessons/what-is-usage-rate-919038

This is a very flawed statistic. Haanif cutting down his turnovers reduced his usage rate.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This is a very flawed statistic. Haanif cutting down his turnovers reduced his usage rate.

Why does that make it flawed?

[Jay Bee]

This is a very flawed statistic. Haanif cutting down his turnovers reduced his usage rate.

Flawed? No, it means the stat is working appropriately - it measures possessions used by an individual. If you turn it over, you used a possession

BTW, Haanif's %shots went from 19.5% to 17.0%

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Why does that make it flawed?

I wouldn't say flawed. I'd say impractical.

I would change usage to get assists and turnovers out of there.  Make it shots and trips to FT line only.  Make assists and turnovers stand alone. Usage would be renamed; I'll call it "shots up percentage".

Example: A player with 27% usage, 18% assist rate, and 14% turnover rate would become 18.3% shots up, 4.9% assist rate, 3.8% turnover rate.

Now you know exactly what happened. Per 100 possessions, the player had 18.3 shots+shooting fouls, 4.9 assists, and 3.8 turnovers. I think that is clearer than saying 27 times resulted in one of 3 things, and 18% of those 27 times there was an assist, and 14% of those 27 times was a turnover, leaving you to still figure out that 68% of 27 times a player shot/went to FT line.

[Jay Bee]

I wouldn't say flawed. I'd say impractical.

I would change usage to get assists and turnovers out of there.  Make it shots and trips to FT line only.  Make assists and turnovers stand alone. Usage would be renamed; I'll call it "shots up percentage".

Example: A player with 27% usage, 18% assist rate, and 14% turnover rate would become 18.3% shots up, 4.9% assist rate, 3.8% turnover rate.

Now you know exactly what happened. Per 100 possessions, the player had 18.3 shots+shooting fouls, 4.9 assists, and 3.8 turnovers. I think that is clearer than saying 27 times resulted in one of 3 things, and 18% of those 27 times there was an assist, and 14% of those 27 times was a turnover, leaving you to still figure out that 62% of 27 times a player shot/went to FT line.

%shots is a separate stat... as are assist rate, turnover rate, or%, etc. usage brings it together, similar to ORtg. ORtg / usage combo view is especially helpful. From there, you drill down into the components to better understand

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

%shots is a separate stat... as are assist rate, turnover rate, or%, etc. usage brings it together, similar to ORtg. ORtg / usage combo view is especially helpful. From there, you drill down into the components to better understand

Thanks JB. Very helpful to know and I appreciate the info. I'll have to look at more stats to grow my understanding of the big picture of the stat picture.

[MU82]

I wouldn't say flawed. I'd say impractical.

I would change usage to get assists and turnovers out of there.  Make it shots and trips to FT line only.  Make assists and turnovers stand alone. Usage would be renamed; I'll call it "shots up percentage".

Example: A player with 27% usage, 18% assist rate, and 14% turnover rate would become 18.3% shots up, 4.9% assist rate, 3.8% turnover rate.

Now you know exactly what happened. Per 100 possessions, the player had 18.3 shots+shooting fouls, 4.9 assists, and 3.8 turnovers. I think that is clearer than saying 27 times resulted in one of 3 things, and 18% of those 27 times there was an assist, and 14% of those 27 times was a turnover, leaving you to still figure out that 62% of 27 times a player shot/went to FT line.

My head just exploded.

Going back to PPG, RPG and APG. If I really wanna get bold, A/TO ratio and eFG%!

But don't worry. I'll never mention FTs again!!!

[bilsu]

I wouldn't say flawed. I'd say impractical.

I would change usage to get assists and turnovers out of there.  Make it shots and trips to FT line only.  Make assists and turnovers stand alone. Usage would be renamed; I'll call it "shots up percentage".

Example: A player with 27% usage, 18% assist rate, and 14% turnover rate would become 18.3% shots up, 4.9% assist rate, 3.8% turnover rate.

Now you know exactly what happened. Per 100 possessions, the player had 18.3 shots+shooting fouls, 4.9 assists, and 3.8 turnovers. I think that is clearer than saying 27 times resulted in one of 3 things, and 18% of those 27 times there was an assist, and 14% of those 27 times was a turnover, leaving you to still figure out that 68% of 27 times a player shot/went to FT line.

However, it still does not count the plays where Sam draws a defender out opening up the middle for someone else. Sam may not even touch the ball, but in reality he is being used within a designed play. The statistic ignors players like Sam who help the team in other ways and rewards players like JJJ and Reinhardt, who were going to shoot no matter what. I am gald Sam is back and JJJ and Reinhardt are gone.

[brewcity77]

However, it still does not count the plays where Sam draws a defender out opening up the middle for someone else. Sam may not even touch the ball, but in reality he is being used within a designed play. The statistic ignors players like Sam who help the team in other ways and rewards players like JJJ and Reinhardt, who were going to shoot no matter what. I am gald Sam is back and JJJ and Reinhardt are gone.

Hmm...except during conference play, both Reinhardt (19th) and JJ (25th) were top-25 in the league in assist percentage. Only Howard and Rowsey were better on our team. Sam wasn't ranked.

I'm not saying Sam doesn't do a lot of little things, but both JJ and Katin were also doing things to make their teammates better. I'd love another year of Reinhardt, especially.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

However, it still does not count the plays where Sam draws a defender out opening up the middle for someone else. Sam may not even touch the ball, but in reality he is being used within a designed play. The statistic ignors players like Sam who help the team in other ways and rewards players like JJJ and Reinhardt, who were going to shoot no matter what. I am gald Sam is back and JJJ and Reinhardt are gone.

I could be reading it wrong, but it seems like you think high usage is good and low usage is bad. That's not the case. Usage tells you about a player's role not how good they are. If usage reflected everything you are suggesting than every player would have a usage of 100%. Every player has a role on every play even if they weren't apparently involved.

And as Brew pointed out, you have selective memory on JJJ and Katin. They were some of the best assistmen on the team.