2017-2018 OOC Schedule

[brewcity77]

VCU also brings in two transfers. They both put up monster numbers for terrible teams (Maine and Longwood). Hard to know how they'll translate to a higher level of competition.

I forgot all about Isaac Vann. He was on the Maine team that lost at the BC to Marquette with Ellenson a couple years ago, but he didn't play in that game. He led that team in PPG (16.4) but you are definitely right, it was an awful team he played for.

[lessthannick11]

So...looking at VCU. They return their two leading scorers in JeQuan Lewis and Justin Tillman. Both of them are potential all-conference players in the A-10 and I expect should be enough to propel them to 20-25 wins. But after that...woof. They only have one other player on the roster that averaged 13+ mpg or 5+ ppg. 5 freshmen coming in, but none rated in the top-200 composite on 247. They lost three important seniors (Alie-Cox, Brooks, & Burgess) while also seeing two key players transfer out (Hamdy, Doughty).

The good news is that there's enough talent there to win games, but playing them early in the season means that talent likely won't have acclimated to the new system or the new pieces. They have a shot at a tourney berth because Dayton will be down and after Rhode Island there's a lot of parity for what should be 3-4 bids from that league. I see us as the favorite, though expect we'll end up with the loser of the ND/Michigan game because I can't see any way we get past that monster Wichita State team.

I thought Lewis was in the draft and eventually signed with the Bucks for summer league?

[RJax55]

I thought Lewis was in the draft and eventually signed with the Bucks for summer league?

You're correct. He's done at VCU

http://www.nba.com/bucks/roster/summerleague/jequan-lewis

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Do we know game time?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I thought Lewis was in the draft and eventually signed with the Bucks for summer league?

Correct Lewis is gone. They bring back two starters, Jonathan Williams and Justin Tillman. They lost three staters (Lewis, Doughty,  and Allie-Cox). They also lost the first three guys off the bench (Burgess, Brooks,  Hamdy-Mohammed). That's a lot to lose. Their freshmen aren't terribly exciting.  It will come down to how their transfers perform.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Do we know game time?

Yes,  we're the early game.  930 am in Maui.

[muguru]

Do we know game time?

1:30

[We R Final Four]

A matchup of Shaka Smart's former schools. It's like an NCAA Tourney storyline.

I'm sure 82 will have a comment on the subject.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Yes,  we're the early game.  930 am in Maui.

Beauty. Plenty of time to drink mai tais by the beach all afternoon.

[brewcity77]

Correct Lewis is gone. They bring back two starters, Jonathan Williams and Justin Tillman. They lost three staters (Lewis, Doughty,  and Allie-Cox). They also lost the first three guys off the bench (Burgess, Brooks,  Hamdy-Mohammed). That's a lot to lose. Their freshmen aren't terribly exciting.  It will come down to how their transfers perform.

Wow, that's big. I saw a few articles that said Lewis stuck around, but that must've been referring to him not transferring.

On a mostly-unrelated scheduling note, I just took a look at Wisconsin's non-conference schedule today. It looks brutal:

• Xavier (H)
  
• Baylor (N)
  
• Creighton/UCLA (N)
  
• Virginia (A)
  
• Temple (A)
  
• Marquette (H)
  
• Yale (H)
  
• Western Kentucky (H)

While I know that last one might not look impressive, the Hilltoppers have a top-10 recruiting class and two of the top grad transfers in the country. They also play two conference games in this time. If the Badgers are down, and with 4 graduating starters that could be the case, their non-conference slate could look similar or worse than Bo's last year when they went 8-5 in non-con play.

[muguru]

Wow, that's big. I saw a few articles that said Lewis stuck around, but that must've been referring to him not transferring.

On a mostly-unrelated scheduling note, I just took a look at Wisconsin's non-conference schedule today. It looks brutal:

• Xavier (H)
  
• Baylor (N)
  
• Creighton/UCLA (N)
  
• Virginia (A)
  
• Temple (A)
  
• Marquette (H)
  
• Yale (H)
  
• Western Kentucky (H)

While I know that last one might not look impressive, the Hilltoppers have a top-10 recruiting class and two of the top grad transfers in the country. They also play two conference games in this time. If the Badgers are down, and with 4 graduating starters that could be the case, their non-conference slate could look similar or worse than Bo's last year when they went 8-5 in non-con play.

And they still freaking managed to make the tourney that year. I thought for sure after that Non con, you could stick a fork in them. I hope it's not one of those years AGAIN for UW. 

[GGGG]

Wow, that's big. I saw a few articles that said Lewis stuck around, but that must've been referring to him not transferring.

On a mostly-unrelated scheduling note, I just took a look at Wisconsin's non-conference schedule today. It looks brutal:

• Xavier (H)
  
• Baylor (N)
  
• Creighton/UCLA (N)
  
• Virginia (A)
  
• Temple (A)
  
• Marquette (H)
  
• Yale (H)
  
• Western Kentucky (H)

While I know that last one might not look impressive, the Hilltoppers have a top-10 recruiting class and two of the top grad transfers in the country. They also play two conference games in this time. If the Badgers are down, and with 4 graduating starters that could be the case, their non-conference slate could look similar or worse than Bo's last year when they went 8-5 in non-con play.

Coached by former Mississippi State coach Rick Stansbury.  I can't figure out why his name wasn't out there more for coaching search last year.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Coached by former Mississippi State coach Rick Stansbury.  I can't figure out why his name wasn't out there more for coaching search last year.

Rick $tan$bury has a reputation for being a tad bit dirty. I don't think high majors want to touch him.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

http://www.richmond.com/sports/college/schools/virginia-commonwealth-university/vcu-will-play-marquette-in-first-round-of-maui-invitational/article_ab45e146-55f1-50e7-8313-fecceb35b861.html

Richmond Paper's article on the first round matchup. Completely unremarkable, except for one epic typo:

VCU will be making tits second appearance

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Marquette will play VCU according to Jon Rothstein

Done deal.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

http://www.richmond.com/sports/college/schools/virginia-commonwealth-university/vcu-will-play-marquette-in-first-round-of-maui-invitational/article_ab45e146-55f1-50e7-8313-fecceb35b861.html

Richmond Paper's article on the first round matchup. Completely unremarkable, except for one epic typo:

That reminds me of two of my favorite Freudian slips in local TV news:

In Madison, WI: Rhythm and Boobs instead of Rhythm and Booms (a fireworks show)

In Wausau, WI:  Big Full Balls Blues Fest instead of Big Bull Falls Blues Fest

[mu03eng]

Can't find the clip but my favorite blooper was female news anchor tossing to the weatherman who forecast a large snowstorm the night before that didn't materialize with the following: So [weather guy's name] where were those nine inches you promised me last night?

[Jay Bee]

Can't find the clip but my favorite blooper was female news anchor tossing to the weatherman who forecast a large snowstorm the night before that didn't materialize with the following: So [weather guy's name] where were those nine inches you promised me last night?

I still cry hearing some of *my station's* bloopers...

https://youtu.be/Ie_Ik5OJa0s

https://youtu.be/3qDPReZyBPI

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/notre-dame-and-marquette-to-play-in-maui-invitational-bracket-is-set/

Here's the Chicago Tribune article on the Maui lineup. What's striking is how we are pretty much given equal billing with ND. That could be a good sign for Chicago area coverage. I always thought we got the short end of the stick despite being 90 miles away.

[The Lens]

Has there been any forecast for RPI or SOS based on what we know about our current Non Conf Sked?

Obviously results matter and the 2nd and 3rd games of the Maui matter but is there any models out there that compare where we are in August of 2017 vs. August of 2016?

[Jay Bee]

Has there been any forecast for RPI or SOS based on what we know about our current Non Conf Sked?

Obviously results matter and the 2nd and 3rd games of the Maui matter but is there any models out there that compare where we are in August of 2017 vs. August of 2016?

Yes. I have, how U say, all the answers

[brewcity77]

Has there been any forecast for RPI or SOS based on what we know about our current Non Conf Sked?

Obviously results matter and the 2nd and 3rd games of the Maui matter but is there any models out there that compare where we are in August of 2017 vs. August of 2016?

Okay...so I'm not at all a prognosticator, but first let's look at last year:

Code Select Expand

Team          Kenpom          RPI
Mt St Mary's    209           150
Purdue           19            19
VCU              48            22
MAUI 2           ??            ??
MAUI 3           ??            ??
EIU             220           265
Chicago St      335           317
Georgia          61            52
Vermont          63            46
UW-Madison       21            36
NIU             205           239
American        307           310

Next, a quick team by team breakdown with my expectations for next year. I'm just estimating teams categorically, so consider everyone to be about +/-25 in terms of where they'll end up. Here we go:

• Mount St. Mary's (250/200): Best players transferred, but Jamion Christian has kept them competitive & has always had a winning conference record, which leads to solid RPI.
  
• Purdue (25/25): Losing Swanigan hurts, but they're still a solid team and should safely be dancing.
  
• VCU (75/50): Will likely take a step back, but look like a bubble team that will have a solid RPI thanks to a mediocre conference.
  
• Maui 2 (25/25 or 100/100): Win and it's probably Wichita State, who's likely at worst top-10 in both rankings. Lose and it's Cal, who's not nearly as good.
  
• Maui 3 (25/25 or 100/100): Most likely a solid ND or Michigan side in the winner's bracket, LSU in the loser's. If it's Chaminade, they have no impact.
  
• Eastern Illinois (225/275): Return some, lose some, I'll put them about the same as last year.
  
• Chicago State (325/325): They've been consistently bad under Tracy Dildy. No reason to predict otherwise this year.
  
• Georgia (50/50): Likely bubble team again. Most everyone but Frazier is back. Expect about the same, maybe a touch better.
  
• Vermont (75/75): Probably take a step back, but will still rack up wins in the America East.
  
• Wisconsin (50/50): Losing 4 starters hurts. Still see them as a bubble team and a quality game on the resume.
  
• Northern Illinois (175/200): I see them a little better despite losing two starters. They have experienced bench players ready to step up.
  
• American (325/325): Four transfers and two seniors gone almost certainly means a step back.

So in terms strictly of numbers, that estimates us at:

• Kenpom Home: 25, 50, 75, 175, 225, 250, 325, 325
  
• Kenpom Neutral: 75, 25, 25 OR 75, 100, 100
  
• Kenpom Road: 50
  
• RPI Home: 25, 50, 75, 200, 200, 275, 325, 325
  
• RPI Neutral: 50, 25, 25 OR 50, 100, 100
  
• RPI Road: 50

Okay, that's all for now. Will get back to this later.

[Gopher+RamFan]

Been a while since I checked, but I think the last time VCU had an RPI of 50+ it was 2004-2005.

OOC for VCU is tough, likely to keep the RPI low even while playing in the A10.

OOC games: UVA, @SHU, Texas, Maui, ODU (not tough).

Sidenote, VCU plays UVA on the East Coast the friday night before the Monday Maui game. Tried to move it to Thursday but UVA said no. Advantage MU.

[jsglow]

Been a while since I checked, but I think the last time VCU had an RPI of 50+ it was 2004-2005.

OOC for VCU is tough, likely to keep the RPI low even while playing in the A10.

OOC games: UVA, @SHU, Texas, Maui, ODU (not tough).

Sidenote, VCU plays UVA on the East Coast the friday night before the Monday Maui game. Tried to move it to Thursday but UVA said no. Advantage MU.

Wow.  Those guys will be hurtin'.

[wadesworld]

Wow.  Those guys will be hurtin'.

Ehh. It won't hurt MU's chances and is an interesting note, but these guys are 18-23 year old kids most likely flying charter. I'd expect them to be fresh, but that is a quick turnaround.