Archie Miller to IU

[wadesworld]

Crean's success came at the hands of a once in a lifetime player at a better program than where Archie had success.

[brewcity77]

Crean's success came at the hands of a once in a lifetime player at a better program than where Archie had success.

I know that's the default false narrative, but it's just such a silly assertion. He won consistently in the Big East without Wade. He did it in a much tougher league than Archie did. I mean, the last three seasons, which also happen to be Archie's three most successful, the A-10 has had an average of 7.7 teams per year that were sub-100 per Pomeroy (and never fewer than 7). The A-10 isn't terrible, but there's more bad teams than there are good ones. Crean also averaged a higher seed in his last three years at MU than Archie did at Dayton despite Dayton playing a comparably cupcake conference schedule.

If both 2008 Tom Crean and 2017 Archie Miller were both available right now, Crean would be the better hire and it wouldn't even be remotely close.

[wadesworld]

I know that's the default false narrative, but it's just such a silly assertion. He won consistently in the Big East without Wade. He did it in a much tougher league than Archie did. I mean, the last three seasons, which also happen to be Archie's three most successful, the A-10 has had an average of 7.7 teams per year that were sub-100 per Pomeroy (and never fewer than 7). The A-10 isn't terrible, but there's more bad teams than there are good ones. Crean also averaged a higher seed in his last three years at MU than Archie did at Dayton despite Dayton playing a comparably cupcake conference schedule.

If both 2008 Tom Crean and 2017 Archie Miller were both available right now, Crean would be the better hire and it wouldn't even be remotely close.

Of course Crean averaged a higher seed in the Tournament his last 3 years at MU. MU played in the BE. It's a lot easier to get a high seed in the BE than it is in the A10.

Archie Miller won 6 NCAA Tournament games in 6 years while recruiting to the A10 and Dayton and never having had a future NBA (and college) HOF player fall into his lap.

Tom Crean won 5 NCAA Tournament games in 9 years at Marquette and 4 of those came with a future NBA (and college) HOF player that fell into his lap. He also was recruiting players to play in the BE his last 3 years and to a Marquette program with a lot more history and resources than Dayton.

Marquette missed the NCAA Tournament the last 2 years they were in CUSA, a fairly comparable conference to the A10. Archie's Dayton team hasn't had anything like that dropoff since he established the program.

If you think it was easier to win at Dayton than it was at Marquette I'm not really sure what else to tell you.

[brewcity77]

If you think it was easier to win at Dayton than it was at Marquette I'm not really sure what else to tell you.

I think a lot of people forget what the expectation was when we joined the Big East. Coming off two non-tourney seasons, joining that league, we weren't exactly the prize of C-USA. Winning in the A-10 with Dayton is much easier than to win in the Big East with...well...anyone.

Brian Gregory won in the A-10 with Dayton. Hell, Oliver Purnell won in the A-10 with Dayton. They have their league's best fan support, they play in a softer league, it's not exactly tough to win 20+ games there. In the 12 years before Miller, Gregory and Purnell did it 9 times.

Maybe Miller's a better coach than the last two guys who racked up gaudy win totals in a soft A-10, but if Gregory and Purnell can win there, I certainly think Tom Crean would be able to absolutely kill it there.

[4everwarriors]

Upside ta Miller is infinitely grater. T-Cube had maxed out and shot his load at MU, hey?

[GGGG]

Why the narrative that Wade fell into Crean's lap?  Crean recruited him. It wasn't happenstance.

Obviously they are hoping that Miller has an upside higher than Crean's. That's the basis for the hire. He hasn't achieved more than Crean did at the time.

[Tugg Speedman]

Why the narrative that Wade fell into Crean's lap?  Crean recruited him. It wasn't happenstance.

Obviously they are hoping that Miller has an upside higher than Crean's. That's the basis for the hire. He hasn't achieved more than Crean did at the time.

His upside better be because they just fired a coach that had them ranked in the top 10 earlier this year before key injuries, took the to the S16 and a top 10 ranking last year, and had them as high as #1 a few years ago.

Like I said before, if Miller finished next year ranked #18 and goes to the second round of the NCAA, that is not even better than Crean last year.

IU's problem is unrealistic expectations, not their coaches personality.

[wadesworld]

Why the narrative that Wade fell into Crean's lap?  Crean recruited him. It wasn't happenstance.

Obviously they are hoping that Miller has an upside higher than Crean's. That's the basis for the hire. He hasn't achieved more than Crean did at the time.

Because high major conferences didn't allow partial qualifiers.  He fell into Crean's lap.

Archie has won more consistently at a much worse program than what Crean did at Marquette.

I have yet to see an article or listen to anyone that says that this was a poor move and/or if they were going to wind up with Archie they should've just stuck with Crean.  In fact, I listen to one college basketball podcast and they have been saying for weeks that unless you know for certain you can get one of Archie, Marshall, or Alford you don't fire Crean.  Archie was a name that was brought up for all the biggest job openings, and many thought he'd stick around at Dayton until a blue blood offered him, which it did.

[GGGG]

No. He recruited Wade as allowed per the rules. "Fell into his lap" is a false narrative that you are using to advance your argument.

[wadesworld]

No. He recruited Wade as allowed per the rules. "Fell into his lap" is a false narrative that you are using to advance your argument.

Who said he didn't recruit him as allowed per rules?

He also didn't have to compete with anybody above the level of DePaul in his recruitment of Wade.  There is no false narrative.  There are facts.

[GGGG]

And I am not saying they should have stuck with Crean. Just that assuming that Miller will be better is an act of faith and not based on objective evidence. Crean's upside is known. Miller's isn't.

[GGGG]

Who said he didn't recruit him as allowed per rules?

He also didn't have to compete with anybody above the level of DePaul in his recruitment of Wade.  There is no false narrative.  There are facts.

That's not "falling into his lap."  That's the false narrative.

[wadesworld]

That's not "falling into his lap."  That's the false narrative.

We'll just have to disagree.  Not many programs could bring Wade in.  Fortunately for both Marquette and Tom Crean, Marquette could.

Even if you don't consider it falling into Crean's lap and give Crean all the credit in the world for Wade being Wade, Archie still won more consistently without future NBA players (HOF or not...Novak, Diener, Matthews, Lazar) at a worse program and in a worse conference than Crean did at Marquette.  6 NCAA Tournament wins for Archie at Dayton in 6 years.  5 NCAA Tournament wins in 9 years at MU for Crean.  Once both had established their programs (so taking out the first couple years), Crean had years of missing the NCAA Tournament while Archie never did.

Now Archie is at a program that he will be able to recruit future pros to.  And, heck, Archie took friggin Dayton further in the NCAA Tournament than Tom Crean ever took II, II.

[B. McBannerson]

Because high major conferences didn't allow partial qualifiers.  He fell into Crean's lap.

Respectfully, this is not an accurate statement.  The Big Ten changed their rules in 1992 to accept partial qualifiers.

This article in 1999 outlined all the major conferences that allowed partial qualifiers. Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC all allowed them, but some conferences put limits on the number each school could have.

http://www.dailynebraskan.com/academic-qualifications-vary-between-conferences/article_4bd9d7eb-17fc-5cdb-9b47-fbb43722cdce.html

[B. McBannerson]

Why the narrative that Wade fell into Crean's lap?  Crean recruited him. It wasn't happenstance.

Obviously they are hoping that Miller has an upside higher than Crean's. That's the basis for the hire. He hasn't achieved more than Crean did at the time.

Crean benefited from the Wade recruitment partly because Wade was a late bloomer. He was considered more of a football player his sophomore year and played sparingly on the basketball team.  His junior year he didn't start right away, prime recruiting time, but he started to blossom was considered a mid major type player, ranked 10th in the state.  By the end of his senior year, after he already committed to MU, he was 1st team all state and arguably the best player in the state.  Worked out great for us. 

In looking at Miller's success, his team had an elite 8 run a few years ago. Their first two wins were by 1 and 2 points.  If they lose that first game, is Miller a big time candidate? No NCAA deep run, just a guy at an A-10 school that is good enough to get to the tournament, but not advance.

The fortunes of coaches and players can hinge on a few plays here and there that change perceptions and can launch or kill careers in a few seconds.

[MU82]

I'm not a Crean fan (or Crean hater), but I say it's silly to say somebody he recruited hard "fell into his lap." He "earned" Wade, who did have other choices. He also surrounded Wade with several players who made it possible for the FF run. I don't think Diener, Novak, Merritt and Jackson ALL fell into Crean's lap, and I don't think MU gets to the S16 to be carried by Wade without the contributions of all the guys not named Wade.

It would be like saying Curry fell into McKillop's lap at Davidson. No. McKillop took advantage of other schools not seeing the potential in Curry early enough and he stayed on Curry. He "earned" Curry.

As for Miller ...

It's probably true that the 08 Crean was a "better" candidate for a blue-blood opening than the 17 Miller. But that doesn't mean Miller won't turn out to be the superior coach. Miller is regarded by most observers as a real up-and-comer and he has unquestionably done a nice job at Dayton. If I were an IU fan, I'd be very excited about him going to Bloomington.

Would I rather have had Billy Donovan? Yes, if I was convinced Donovan really wanted to come back to college basketball. Otherwise, looking at the pool of available candidates, I'd be very happy with Archie Miller. I sure as shyte would rather have him than Alford.

As to whether Miller will do better next season than Crean would have ... sometimes, change for the sake of change is good. It really can be good for Crean, too.

I don't know how hiring perhaps one of the best - if not the best - available candidates somehow "proves" that Indiana is suddenly no longer "elite."

Besides, I would argue Indiana stopped being elite when it let Bobby run roughshod over the university in the late-90s. As he got more and more belligerent and abusive, he did more damage to the IU basketball brand than anybody. The man won a grand total of 2 NCAA tournament games in his last 6 years there because talented kids (including top Indiana kids) began to realize, "Hey, I can get great coaching without getting choked, so I'll go elsewhere." Bobby got 'em to the tourney because he was still a gifted game coach, but he didn't have the horses to compete for anything important. Once they finally fired him, it was too late, and the coaches who followed were anywhere from bad to good (I'll give Crean "good") - but miles from elite.

[wadesworld]

I'm not a Crean fan (or Crean hater), but I say it's silly to say somebody he recruited hard "fell into his lap." He "earned" Wade, who did have other choices. He also surrounded Wade with several players who made it possible for the FF run. I don't think Diener, Novak, Merritt and Jackson ALL fell into Crean's lap, and I don't think MU gets to the S16 to be carried by Wade without the contributions of all the guys not named Wade.

It would be like saying Curry fell into McKillop's lap at Davidson. No. McKillop took advantage of other schools not seeing the potential in Curry early enough and he stayed on Curry. He "earned" Curry.

As for Miller ...

It's probably true that the 08 Crean was a "better" candidate for a blue-blood opening than the 17 Miller. But that doesn't mean Miller won't turn out to be the superior coach. Miller is regarded by most observers as a real up-and-comer and he has unquestionably done a nice job at Dayton. If I were an IU fan, I'd be very excited about him going to Bloomington.

Would I rather have had Billy Donovan? Yes, if I was convinced Donovan really wanted to come back to college basketball. Otherwise, looking at the pool of available candidates, I'd be very happy with Archie Miller. I sure as shyte would rather have him than Alford.

As to whether Miller will do better next season than Crean would have ... sometimes, change for the sake of change is good. It really can be good for Crean, too.

I don't know how hiring perhaps one of the best - if not the best - available candidates somehow "proves" that Indiana is suddenly no longer "elite."

Besides, I would argue Indiana stopped being elite when it let Bobby run roughshod over the university in the late-90s. As he got more and more belligerent and abusive, he did more damage to the IU basketball brand than anybody. The man won a grand total of 2 NCAA tournament games in his last 6 years there because talented kids (including top Indiana kids) began to realize, "Hey, I can get great coaching without getting choked, so I'll go elsewhere." Bobby got 'em to the tourney because he was still a gifted game coach, but he didn't have the horses to compete for anything important. Once they finally fired him, it was too late, and the coaches who followed were anywhere from bad to good (I'll give Crean "good") - but miles from elite.

Curry didn't have the issue of qualifying to play like Wade did.  Wade's choices were Marquette, Illinois State, DePaul, and Bradley.  DePaul went with a different guard and Wade's final 2 were Marquette and Illinois State, not because he was too small, too weak, or not talented enough to get looks from other schools, but because he didn't have the grades to get him into those schools.  Wade said Michigan was his dream school and was contacting him...until they found out about his grades.  Competing with Illinois State for one of Illinois's best high school basketball players is a Godsend.  He fell into Crean's lap.

[Golden Avalanche]

Crean's success came at the hands of a once in a lifetime player at a better program than where Archie had success.

Ridiculously juvenile and simplistic. But no surprise.

[wadesworld]

Ridiculously juvenile and simplistic. But no surprise.

Yeah it is pretty simple. Tom Crean won a whopping 1 NCAA Tournament game at Marquette without some guy named Dwayne Wade on the roster.

[reinko]

Yeah it is pretty simple. Tom Crean won a whopping 1 NCAA Tournament game at Marquette without some guy named Dwayne Wade on the roster.

Tom Crean won zero NCAA tourney games with a guy named Dwayne Wade on the roster.

[wadesworld]

Tom Crean won zero NCAA tourney games with a guy named Dwayne Wade on the roster.

Oh no.  Not an iPhone autocorrect misspelling!

[reinko]

Oh no.  Not an iPhone autocorrect misspelling!

So you agree, Tom Crean won zero NCAA games with Dwayne Wade on his team?

Cool.

[Pakuni]

Curry didn't have the issue of qualifying to play like Wade did.  Wade's choices were Marquette, Illinois State, DePaul, and Bradley.  DePaul went with a different guard and Wade's final 2 were Marquette and Illinois State, not because he was too small, too weak, or not talented enough to get looks from other schools, but because he didn't have the grades to get him into those schools.  Wade said Michigan was his dream school and was contacting him...until they found out about his grades.  Competing with Illinois State for one of Illinois's best high school basketball players is a Godsend.  He fell into Crean's lap.

With all due respect, there was way more to Wade's situation than just academics.
Fact is, Wade was a good, but not great, player in his junior year of high school and then spent the summer on an absolutely loaded AAU team where guys like Darius Miles (straight to NBA), Matt Lottich (Stanford), Brett Melton (Illinois) and Todd Townsend (who was considered a better player at that age) stole shots, minutes and attention. It wasn't until Dwyane's senior year in high school that people got a glimpse at the player he would become, and by then Crean had built a relationship with him and let him know MU would be there whether he qualified or not. Dwyane has said many times that was one of the reasons he stuck with MU after he blew up.
It's silly to think that bigger programs knew what DW would become, but didn't recruit him solely because of Prop 48.

Crean deserves loads of credit for recognizing Wade as a top tier talent and building the relationship that would bring him to Marquette. There's plenty of entirely valid reasons to criticize and make fun of Crean. No need to invent reasons to invalidate the successes he did have at MU.

[wadesworld]

With all due respect, there was way more to Wade's situation than just academics.
Fact is, Wade was a good, but not great, player in his junior year of high school and then spent the summer on an absolutely loaded AAU team where guys like Darius Miles (straight to NBA), Matt Lottich (Stanford), Brett Melton (Illinois) and Todd Townsend (who was considered a better player at that age) stole shots, minutes and attention. It wasn't until Dwyane's senior year in high school that people got a glimpse at the player he would become, and by then Crean had built a relationship with him and let him know MU would be there whether he qualified or not. Dwyane has said many times that was one of the reasons he stuck with MU after he blew up.
It's silly to think that bigger programs knew what DW would become, but didn't recruit him solely because of Prop 48.

Crean deserves loads of credit for recognizing Wade as a top tier talent and building the relationship that would bring him to Marquette. There's plenty of entirely valid reasons to criticize and make fun of Crean. No need to invent reasons to invalidate the successes he did have at MU.

In Wade's own words his dream school was Michigan and they were interested in him until they found out his grades.  He couldn't go to the high major schools due to his academic issues.  Props to Crean for letting Wade know he was going to stand by him no matter what his grades word, which allowed him to beat out the powerhouse Illinois State for Wade's services.  There is no debate that if Wade's academics were perfectly in order throughout his high school career his recruitment is a lot different than it was.  Does he still end up at Marquette?  Thankfully we'll never have to find out.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I guess my main question with Miller is that by any measurement, at the time of hire, he's a step down from Crean. Both had one NCAA run, Crean went to the Final Four, Miller went to the Elite Eight. Both had success in their league, Crean did it in the Big East, Miller did it in the A10. Both had solid recruits, but Wade/Diener/Novak/Matthews were all more successful long-term than any of Miller's Dayton recruits.

Crean came in as a better recruiter, with a better track record, from a better league. Miller is basically like hiring a mini-Crean all over again. I don't think there's any way one could argue this as anything but an obvious step back for Indiana. Maybe Miller ends up having success, maybe he knocks it out of the park there, but strictly based on what the coach brings to the table at the time of hire, Crean is hands-down the better candidate and they aren't even in the same zip code. Hell, I'm not even sure they're in the same country.

According to your specific, backward-looking metrics, maybe you're right.

One thing Archie does not have a reputation for, however, is possessing the personality of a complete tool.

Butler, ND, and Purdue have shown you can be highly & consistently successful if you can recruit Indiana high schools well. Hell, even Crean with Zeller and that early crew proved that. However, he proved himself time and time again to be entirely off-putting to the very people he needed to be tight with. Found himself shut out of the Indiana HS circuity completely. Archie's no phony, and he's no idiot. You immediately establish those relationships with a sense of mutual respect, and the talent will flow like the salmon of Capistrano. And he can be picky with how that talent fits with roster complexion and the system he wants to run, too. That's one thing, regardless of recruiting class rankings, that I thought Crean was very poor at.

Sometimes cultural fit is just as important as (if not more important than) what the metrics say. On metrics, I'd say they're a push. Culturally, Archie wins in a landslide. People actually like him. Crean's ultimate demise was/is that he's an insufferable human being that overcompensates with arrogance and buffoonery. Plain and simple.