Hubris

[GGGG]

I went into this season believing that MU was an NIT team...and occasionally they still do look like an NIT team but, despite this season's ups and downs it appears highly likely that MU will be dancing. To go from 13 wins with basically an 8-man roster to making the NCAA Tournament is an accomplishment and shows that MU is trending in the right direction. 10-seed, play-in game, it doesn't matter. MU will be there and that's what matters at this point.

Last year's team was better than Wojo's Year 1 team (thankfully!) and despite losing its best player, this year's team is better than last year's team. Wojo also appears to have improved as a coach over that time. Much like the team, he still has areas where he needs improvement but he's grown and I feel confident that he'll get there.

There were a lot of coulda, woulda, shouldas this season but no one can present a strong case against the notion that the program has improved greatly since Wojo took over.

Here is what the Scoop collective thought in this topic before the year.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=52524.0

"If Scoopers are correct...

After a 20-10 regular season record, our Warriors will fall in the Big East Tournament Quarters, dropping to 20-11 and sitting squarely on the bubble heading into Selection Sunday.

A 10-8 conference record, including three road wins (DePaul, St. John's, Providence), will be good enough for 5th in the Big East.  The resume will be padded with three big non-con victories over Vandy, Pittsburg/SMU, and Georgia, alongside a close loss to Michigan at MSG.  Further boosting optimism on the morning of March 12th will be the lack of 'bad losses' for Marquette, with a mere three losses all season at the BC (Wisconsin, Xavier, Nova) and a flawless 7-0 against non-conference 'cupcakes' (although Fresno State hardly deserves the 'cupcake' moniker, as taking down the Bulldogs will prove more difficult than four Big East games).

In the end, the Warriors will have slightly better than coin-flip odds to punch Wojo's first NCAA Tournament Ticket, with ~55% of Scoopers predicting Marquette will go dancing."


So we nailed the conference record, was one off on the overall record, nailed the first round BET loss, and will likely exceed our thoughts for post-season.

We are actually pretty smart when we stop talking out of our a$$.

[MUfan12]

If they hang on v. Pitt it's dead on. Wild.

[MerrittsMustache]

Here is what the Scoop collective thought in this topic before the year.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=52524.0

"If Scoopers are correct...

After a 20-10 regular season record, our Warriors will fall in the Big East Tournament Quarters, dropping to 20-11 and sitting squarely on the bubble heading into Selection Sunday.

A 10-8 conference record, including three road wins (DePaul, St. John's, Providence), will be good enough for 5th in the Big East.  The resume will be padded with three big non-con victories over Vandy, Pittsburg/SMU, and Georgia, alongside a close loss to Michigan at MSG.  Further boosting optimism on the morning of March 12th will be the lack of 'bad losses' for Marquette, with a mere three losses all season at the BC (Wisconsin, Xavier, Nova) and a flawless 7-0 against non-conference 'cupcakes' (although Fresno State hardly deserves the 'cupcake' moniker, as taking down the Bulldogs will prove more difficult than four Big East games).

In the end, the Warriors will have slightly better than coin-flip odds to punch Wojo's first NCAA Tournament Ticket, with ~55% of Scoopers predicting Marquette will go dancing."


So we nailed the conference record, was one off on the overall record, nailed the first round BET loss, and will likely exceed our thoughts for post-season.

We are actually pretty smart when we stop talking out of our a$$.

So despite all of the hemming and hawing and complaining...




RIP, Denny

[connie]

We are actually pretty smart when we stop talking out of our a$$.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

20 wins is a hellavu lot less important than RPI. And another game against a cupcake would have dropped our RPI. The scheduling wasn't bad this year. Some of our cupcakes underperfromed but that worst one, Howard, wasn't our decision.

I am now consigned to having to decide that full comprehension of what i stated is a stretch for you. 
Where did i state that we should pick up another 300+ cupcake?  In fact, half of the complaint was the fact that we were playing as many 300+ as we did.  I mean come on. 
Our peers were able to schedule 31 and not have as bad an ooc sos, undeniable.  Average performance of ones job produces a full schedule that doesnt consist of all those dogs.  Look at the other 10-8 BE teams all higher sos n rpi.  No different way to cut it than that department deserves an F n fully failed the players.  Bubble talk or potentially missing falls equally on them.

[wadesworld]

I am now consigned to having to decide that full comprehension of what i stated is a stretch for you. 
Where did i state that we should pick up another 300+ cupcake?  In fact, half of the complaint was the fact that we were playing as many 300+ as we did.  I mean come on. 
Our peers were able to schedule 31 and not have as bad an ooc sos, undeniable.  Average performance of ones job produces a full schedule that doesnt consist of all those dogs.  Look at the other 10-8 BE teams all higher sos n rpi.  No different way to cut it than that department deserves an F n fully failed the players.  Bubble talk or potentially missing falls equally on them.

So go ahead and, as of right now, formulate an adequate schedule for next year.  If it's that easy to know which low major teams are going to come to Milwaukee to take a loss but are going to do well enough next season to not give our SOS a hit, go ahead and make up or 2017 OOC schedule, please.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

So go ahead and, as of right now, formulate an adequate schedule for next year.  If it's that easy to know which low major teams are going to come to Milwaukee to take a loss but are going to do well enough next season to not give our SOS a hit, go ahead and make up or 2017 OOC schedule, please.

That is not my job.  However, one only need look at the ooc sos for marquette the last two years to ascertain that ours is woefully inadequate relative to our peers.  I mean we cannot even schedule the full amount of games.   And our peers have all the same difficulties/issues that we do with a lesser budget. 

[drewm88]

We are actually pretty smart when we stop talking out of our a$$.

That's a lot to ask.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I am now consigned to having to decide that full comprehension of what i stated is a stretch for you. 
Where did i state that we should pick up another 300+ cupcake?  In fact, half of the complaint was the fact that we were playing as many 300+ as we did.  I mean come on. 
Our peers were able to schedule 31 and not have as bad an ooc sos, undeniable.  Average performance of ones job produces a full schedule that doesnt consist of all those dogs.  Look at the other 10-8 BE teams all higher sos n rpi.  No different way to cut it than that department deserves an F n fully failed the players.  Bubble talk or potentially missing falls equally on them.

Because when you schedule a home and home with a high major (Utah) and they pull out at the last minute, all that's left are cupcakes. That's what you don't seem to get.

I'm curious what your definition of "many 300+ cupcakes" is. Because we played two. One of those, we didn't schedule, they were scheduled for us by the Legends Classic. The other has a former Marquette player as its head coach, so I don't mind having them be our one awful cupcake.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I agree the schedule making needs work.  I don't really think anyone can really deny that. Our awful luck in what looked like some decent cupcakes turning into cowpies changed a bit towards the end of the year when a few of them started to play better, but we do still need to work on scheduling better buy games, and hopefully filling out our schedule with an additional neutral site or road game against a high major. 

[Newsdreams]

I agree the schedule making needs work.  I don't really think anyone can really deny that. Our awful luck in what looked like some decent cupcakes turning into cowpies changed a bit towards the end of the year when a few of them started to play better, but we do still need to work on scheduling better buy games, and hopefully filling out our schedule with an additional neutral site or road game against a high major.

We host a Gavitt game so that helps. Scheduling is hard we only have certain dates we can play with at home.

[brewcity77]

Howard crapped the bed, though could still make the tournament. Western Carolina had their worst season in over a decade. SIUE we knew would be bad.

Past that, St Francis, IUPUI, and Houston Baptist were pretty okay. Their individual RPI weren't great, but RPI doesn't care about your individual RPI.

What people don't get is that the problem with our schedule wasn't so much the cupcakes (though two underachievers hurt) but the high majors. Vandy is going to lose 15 games. Pittsburgh lost 17 games. Wisconsin losing 5/6 late hurt our RPI. If Vandy, Pitt, and Georgia win 20 games, it helps a ton. Of Wisconsin doesn't crap the bed, it helps. Honestly, our non-con schedule was hurt more by the failures of high majors than the cupcakes.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

We host a Gavitt game so that helps. Scheduling is hard we only have certain dates we can play with at home.

I remember a Broeker quote when Buzz was coach that said essentially that scheduling is easy when your coach is willing to take on anyone - anywhere. 

It can't be that hard as many have a higher SOS than us and don't have any inherent advantages.

[Benny B]

That's a lot to ask.

The smart part or the talking out the ass part?

[Dr. Blackheart]

I hear the committee reads scoop.

And therein lies the answer. The "missing 20th win" was just unshrouded in the corner of Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis date "October 30, 2016, attn: Dayton".

[Herman Cain]

That is not my job.  However, one only need look at the ooc sos for marquette the last two years to ascertain that ours is woefully inadequate relative to our peers.  I mean we cannot even schedule the full amount of games.   And our peers have all the same difficulties/issues that we do with a lesser budget.

We really need to hope that Broeker gets hired away. I am so sick of the pathetic lame  excuses from his office year after year.  We have too much invested for this kind of mediocrity. This would have been the year to do a 3 for 1 with UWM. We could have done the 1 part at their place which would have been a road win , which is worth something in RPI world and we would have gotten the 20th win.  Then in the future it is a home game for 3 years, when hopefully they would be better. I am certain they could have found an open date at the arena.

[MerrittsMustache]

We really need to hope that Broeker gets hired away. I am so sick of the pathetic lame  excuses from his office year after year.  We have too much invested for this kind of mediocrity. This would have been the year to do a 3 for 1 with UWM. We could have done the 1 part at their place which would have been a road win , which is worth something in RPI world and we would have gotten the 20th win.  Then in the future it is a home game for 3 years, when hopefully they would be better. I am certain they could have found an open date at the arena.

What would that have accomplished? UWM's RPI is currently 256. There's nothing to gain from that. Should MU have gone on the road to play St. Francis or Western Carolina? It would have accomplished the same thing.

[brewcity77]

What would that have accomplished? UWM's RPI is currently 256. There's nothing to gain from that. Should MU have gone on the road to play St. Francis or Western Carolina? It would have accomplished the same thing.

It would have hurt us to play UWM. No benefit to playing them this year.

[wadesworld]

We really need to hope that Broeker gets hired away. I am so sick of the pathetic lame  excuses from his office year after year.  We have too much invested for this kind of mediocrity. This would have been the year to do a 3 for 1 with UWM. We could have done the 1 part at their place which would have been a road win , which is worth something in RPI world and we would have gotten the 20th win.  Then in the future it is a home game for 3 years, when hopefully they would be better. I am certain they could have found an open date at the arena.

Hashtag @ScoopTakes!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We really need to hope that Broeker gets hired away. I am so sick of the pathetic lame  excuses from his office year after year.  We have too much invested for this kind of mediocrity. This would have been the year to do a 3 for 1 with UWM. We could have done the 1 part at their place which would have been a road win , which is worth something in RPI world and we would have gotten the 20th win.  Then in the future it is a home game for 3 years, when hopefully they would be better. I am certain they could have found an open date at the arena.

I personally like Broeker a lot and think he's done a lot of great things for our program. You're certainly entitled to your own opinion of him but us missing this magical 20th win is not a good reason IMHO.

I wouldn't mind a 3 for 1 with UWM or UWGB but I don't pretend to know the finer points of basketball budgeting. I've always been told that the money is better for straight up buy games and we are no longer willing to give that up. I have no idea how much of a $$$ difference it is, but if that difference had to come out of the recruiting budget, would you be okay with that?

[fjm]

Here is what the Scoop collective thought in this topic before the year.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=52524.0

"If Scoopers are correct...

After a 20-10 regular season record, our Warriors will fall in the Big East Tournament Quarters, dropping to 20-11 and sitting squarely on the bubble heading into Selection Sunday.

A 10-8 conference record, including three road wins (DePaul, St. John's, Providence), will be good enough for 5th in the Big East.  The resume will be padded with three big non-con victories over Vandy, Pittsburg/SMU, and Georgia, alongside a close loss to Michigan at MSG.  Further boosting optimism on the morning of March 12th will be the lack of 'bad losses' for Marquette, with a mere three losses all season at the BC (Wisconsin, Xavier, Nova) and a flawless 7-0 against non-conference 'cupcakes' (although Fresno State hardly deserves the 'cupcake' moniker, as taking down the Bulldogs will prove more difficult than four Big East games).

In the end, the Warriors will have slightly better than coin-flip odds to punch Wojo's first NCAA Tournament Ticket, with ~55% of Scoopers predicting Marquette will go dancing."


So we nailed the conference record, was one off on the overall record, nailed the first round BET loss, and will likely exceed our thoughts for post-season.

We are actually pretty smart when we stop talking out of our a$$.

Whoa... we are awesome! One damn game away. I'll take that!

[chapman]

We really need to hope that Broeker gets hired away. I am so sick of the pathetic lame  excuses from his office year after year.  We have too much invested for this kind of mediocrity. This would have been the year to do a 3 for 1 with UWM. We could have done the 1 part at their place which would have been a road win , which is worth something in RPI world and we would have gotten the 20th win.  Then in the future it is a home game for 3 years, when hopefully they would be better. I am certain they could have found an open date at the are

Running the RPI Wizard sensitivity analysis:

Current RPI: 59
Current SOS: 40

If we had scheduled and won against UWM on the road:

RPI: 59 (unchanged)
SOS: 55 (-15)

So, it would not have had an impact on our RPI, as their W/L was bad (first input to the RPI calculation), offset by being on the road.  The trade-off was one win (road, RPI 200+ bucket, #20) for 15 places in the SOS rankings.

Without boring everyone too much with the various scenarios I tried:

Playing one game against another cupcake also had very little RPI impact and negative SOS impacts. 

Playing a team near our RPI (KSU or Illinois) had little SOS impact and minimal movement each way on RPI based on win/lose. 

Deleting our "worst win", SIU-Edwardsville, improves our RPI minimally 57 (+2) and SOS to 31 (+9). 

If we would have been able to hold on against Seton Hall on the road, our RPI is 49 (+7) and SOS 41 (-1).  Or if Butler, 34 (+15) and 40 (NC).  If we didn't crap the bed at Georgetown, RPI 53 (+6), SOS 41 (-1).

If we win yesterday, and lose to Nova today: RPI 44 (+5), SOS 31 (+9).

[jesmu84]

Hashtag @ScoopTakes!

I love that account

[Herman Cain]

It would have hurt us to play UWM. No benefit to playing them this year.

I was saying play them this year as a road game. Road wins are weighted at 1.4 versus 0.6 for home games. So yes we would have benefited.

[wadesworld]

I was saying play them this year as a road game. Road wins are weighted at 1.4 versus 0.6 for home games. So yes we would have benefited.

You are wrong.

But it's all about the @ScoopTakes.