Who are the Bid Thieves?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

There's been some chatter from the talking heads and here on scoop about us not being a lock. Personally, I think we are locked up barring an unprecedented amount of bid thieves.

So that got me wondering, who actually are the possible bid thieves?

There are only 9 conferences left that even have the possibility of stealing a bid:

1. A10 (122 potential bid thieves)
2. CUSA (111potential bid thieves....but its unclear that MTSU would get an at large if they lost, especially in the quarters or semis)
3. AAC (92 potential bid thieves)
4. SEC (91 potential bid thieves)
5. PAC 12 (81 potential bid thieves)
6. Big 10 (71 potential bid thieves)
7. Big 12 (52 potential bid thieves)
8. Big East (31 potential bid thieves)
9. ACC (2 potential bid thieves)

Really to knock Marquette out, you would need at least 4, probably more like 5 or 6 of these conferences to steal a bid. After a quick look, here are some of the most likely bid thieves with the most likely path they would take to a tournament championship:

1. Rhode Island: Likely path: St. Bon, Dayton, VCU Moved into field, no longer a bid thief
2. Houston: UConn, Cincy, SMU
3. Utah: Cal, Oregon, Arizona
4. Richmond: George Washington, VCU, DaytonRhode Island
5. UCF: Memphis, SMU, Cincy
6. Memphis: UCF, SMU, Cincy
7. California: Oregon State, Utah, Oregon, Arizona
8. Ole Miss: AuburnMizzou, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky
9. Alabama: Mississippi State, South Carolina, Kentucky, Florida Arkansas
10. St. Bon: UMass, Rhode Island, Dayton, VCU
11. Kansas State: Baylor, West Virginia, KansasIowa State
12. Indiana: Iowa, Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue
13. Iowa: Indiana, Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue
14. Texas Tech: Texas, West Virginia, Baylor, Kansas
15. Colorado: Washington State, Arizona, UCLA, Oregon
16. Texas A&M: Vanderbilt, Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky
17. TCU: Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa State, West Virginia
18. Davidson: LaSalle, Dayton, Rhode Island, VCU
19. Pittsburgh: Virginia, Notre Dame, Florida State, North Carolina
20. Georgia: Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida

Really, all this is to say, that stealing a bid....let alone 4-6 of them....is an extremely tall order. The AAC, P12, and A10 seem like the most likely produce a bid thief. The Big East, ACC, Big 12, and Big 10 just have too many tourney worthy teams for it to be likely to have one of the cellar dwellers win it. That leaves the SEC and CUSA as wildcards. If MTSU loses but gets an at large, that's one less spot on the bubble. Even with that, to keep Marquette out, you would need the SEC, AAC, P12, and A10 to all have surprise champions.

In short, get your dancing shoes ready. Because it would take a bubble nightmare the likes of which have never been seen to keep Marquette out.

[warriorfred]

Tip of the Cap - Excellent work.

[brewcity77]

I think the Pac-12 and AAC might actually be pretty safe. The gulf between the top few teams and the rest of the league is huge. If it's one dominant team, like CUSA, then all it takes is one off night, but I don't see (for example) Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA all falling.

To me, the A10 is the most likely. I picked URI to win that one and there's just a ton of parity in that league. I could maybe see 2-3 bid thieves here, but no way we get pushed off the bubble.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think the Pac-12 and AAC might actually be pretty safe. The gulf between the top few teams and the rest of the league is huge. If it's one dominant team, like CUSA, then all it takes is one off night, but I don't see (for example) Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA all falling.

To me, the A10 is the most likely. I picked URI to win that one and there's just a ton of parity in that league. I could maybe see 2-3 bid thieves here, but no way we get pushed off the bubble.

I don't disagree at all. That's part of the point of this post. Bid thieves just aren't very likely.

[Big Papi]

10-8 in one of the top 4 conferences.  Lots of top 50 wins. A win over #1 Villanova.  2 somewhat bad losses.  We look good on the eye test.  Very soft bubble.  We are a lock and this coming from a man who never wagers, I would bet the farm on it.

[GoldenDieners32]

Middle tennessee will take one

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Middle tennessee will take one

Possible, but not a guarantee. As of now, they would be in the Last Four In if they were to not get the autobid. A loss in the quarters or semis to  a bad team? That could be enough to knock them off, especially if a team like Rhode Island or Kansas State does well in their tournament. Plus, the committee has a long history of snubbing mid-majors with good computer numbers for high major teams. I wouldn't feel comfortable as Blue Raider fan unless they won the CUSA tourney.

[GoldenDieners32]

Would MT be a 11 seed if they won their conference tourney

[Clam Crowder]

10-8 in one of the top 4 conferences.  Lots of top 50 wins. A win over #1 Villanova.  2 somewhat bad losses.  We look good on the eye test.  Very soft bubble.  We are a lock and this coming from a man who never wagers, I would bet the farm on it.

Is our second bad loss Pittsburgh or Georgetown? Pittsburgh won last night, GTOWN probably wins tonight which end of the day somewhat helps us in terms of RPI as well. Neither of those PC bad with losses to Depaul and BC.

Iowa if they get to the final 4 of the big 10 could get a bid with how hot they are, IU could win that whole tourney. Sad for me to say but I have to kinda root for the Badgers to not let something like that happen.

I don't see URI getting past Dayton but we will see. I don't think URI has a chance to get a bid with anything other than an A10 championship.

Biggest games for MU tonight all in the ACC: Pitt vs Virginia (it wont happen but would give MU some RPI bump), Wake vs Buzz...A win for Wake may push them above MU or at least into the last 4 byes I would think, Clemson/Duke-Gotta kill Clemson's hopes of somehow getting a bid and then Cuse vs Miami...A loss for Cuse should put them in bad shape for the bubble IMO. They still probably make it cuz its Syracuse and the ACC but we will see.

[burger]

Middle tennessee will take one

I think Bonaventure would be the most likely on this list.....

But I think you are talking 2 or 3.....and a few of those may be already on the bubble or in......

[BM1090]

Would MT be a 11 seed if they won their conference tourney

Probably, but that's irrelevant to being a bid thief.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think Bonaventure would be the most likely on this list.....

But I think you are talking 2 or 3.....and a few of those may be already on the bubble or in......

You think St. Bonaventure having to win 4 in a row, including 3 against the top 3 in their conference is more likely than Rhode Island/Richmond having to win 3 in a row in the same conference?

[MUBigDance]

Thanks for the work on the post.

As for Bonaventure, my late dad went there so always rooting for them to get in.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

This bid has been locked up since the X road win.

[GB Warrior]

Outstanding post. Way to take those questions that we all wondered but were collectively too lazy to research and put them in writing.

[muwarrior97]

Cuse and Clemson bubbles are flat now

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I updated my original post. Now only 8 conference have even the possibility of stealing a bid. The original most likely bid thief, Rhode Island is now in the "Last Four In" per bracketmatrix. As such, they are no longer a bid thief, just a potential at large team. A lot of yesterday was early round bid thief vs. bid thief matchups. Today is when the magic really starts to happen.

[jsglow]

Make that 7 with the Johnnies losing.  No stolen bid in the BEast.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Updated the original post. All big thief games are done for the day.

Lots of damage done to bid thieves. Big East eliminated all of its potential bid thieves. Both the PAC 12 and Big 10 are down to a single thief. MTSU made it to the semis without a challenge.

Most intriguing conference is obviously the B12. They seem to be allergic to chalk. They had a chance to eliminate all their potential thieves but TCU and KState pulled off huge upsets. Going to be pulling for Marquette West and Huggy Bear to shut that down tomorrow.

Even with the loss, I honestly don't think MTSU can raise above Marquette. They'll either be an autobid or win one more crap game and lose a crap game. There's really only 6 conferences left that can steal Marquette's bid. Would need at least three to happen before I get nervous.

[EaglesNest]

If Rhode Island can get by St. Bonneventure to the semis of the A10 Tourney I can see them beating Dayton. They've blown both their games against Dayton this year when they were leading almost the entire game. Pretty tough to beat a team 3 times in the same year. They would probably see VCU in the A10 title, who they just beat a week ago.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If Rhode Island can get by St. Bonneventure to the semis of the A10 Tourney I can see them beating Dayton. They've blown both their games against Dayton this year when they were leading almost the entire game. Pretty tough to beat a team 3 times in the same year. They would probably see VCU in the A10 title, who they just beat a week ago.

Certainly possible. And if they did, they wouldn't be a bid thief. Because they are considered in the field already by most brackets, and would certainly be in the field if they beat the Bonnies and Dayton.

[bilsu]

All of this is assuming the committee thinks we are as good as we think we are. What you really do not want to be in the last four in group, because then you are really going to get scrutinized.

[cheebs09]

All of this is assuming the committee thinks we are as good as we think we are. What you really do not want to be in the last four in group, because then you are really going to get scrutinized.

I really think we are at the moment. I think Xavier and Creighton beating two good teams last night helped tone down the "4 of their Top 50 wins are against teams missing their PG" asterisk. Our RPI is in range for an at-large team. Our Non-Con SOS is the biggest negative, but we did beat two top 50 teams away from home.

We need the Big 12 to not have KState or TCU win that tournament. A-10 is another to watch. I'll be a little anxious until the bubble teams or bid stealers are eliminated, but I think worst case is Dayton now. I think we have too strong a resume to be left out compared to the teams that would have to be in instead of us.

[fjm]

All of this is assuming the committee thinks we are as good as we think we are. What you really do not want to be in the last four in group, because then you are really going to get scrutinized.

I believe our current RPI is 58?

We are 8-7 vs top 50. Thaaaats one of the top 15 in the country in wins and games played vs top 50 teams.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

All of this is assuming the committee thinks we are as good as we think we are. What you really do not want to be in the last four in group, because then you are really going to get scrutinized.

This is not assuming that we are as good as we think we are. Its about analyzing how good 130 experts in the field think we are.