Seton Hall

[Silkk the Shaka]

Hall has mastered the ability to look amazing for five minutes, average for 32 1/2 minutes leading to a two possession game in the final 90 seconds only to have the opposing team miss shots and get fouled themselves every time down the court on offense. It's been a dumpster fire end to the season for a dumpster fire program.

The way MU is running offense right now there is every bit of expectation they can bomb the Hall out of MSG.

They won 4 games in a row to probably lock up a bid... I admit I haven't paid a ton of attention to them this year outside of the 2 times we played them, but dumpster fire end to the season? Not sure I see it.

[GoldenDieners32]

Maybe.  Maybe a 10.  Maybe an 8 or 9.  I think we're going to be surprised by our seed, and I honestly think there are at least a dozen teams between us and the bubble.

You never know what those 12 teams could do between now and sunday though

[brewcity77]

What intrigues me most about this matchup is that while in many ways they are a bad matchup for us (size up front, tough rebounders, good at getting to the line), we are also a bad matchup for them (marginal 3-point defenders, foul too much, poor shot blockers, don't force turnovers).

My initial thought is that tempo would dictate a game like that, but both teams like to play the same way in terms of offensive and defensive matchups. Marquette likes to run and get shots early in the clock, SHU likes to limit time of possession on offense. On defense, they take more time and our defense tries to harass teams into long possessions.

Honestly, it's just a great matchup. My guess is we win simply because we are a better shot-making team. In two previous games, it came down to big rebounds, but we were generally in control the last 5 minutes and the Pirates escaped, once with a win and once with overtime. This time I think we salt it away in regulation.

[Benny B]

Someone on twitter pointed out that this is a Title Belt match-up.  We won it earlier this year vs Creighton and gave it up a week later.

goo.gl/hTISK6

Go figure... MU actually defended the belt against the #1 team.  I'd venture to say that hasn't happened much.

[g0lden3agle]

Someone on twitter pointed out that this is a Title Belt match-up.  We won it earlier this year vs Creighton and gave it up a week later.

goo.gl/hTISK6

Very cool idea.  Do you own that document?  It'd be cool to get a little more in depth in terms of seeing which conference has owned it the most, how many days a team owned it before giving it up, etc.

[Golden Avalanche]

If winning 4 in a row and 7/9 is categorized as a dumpster fire, where do I sign up?  Don't let your hatred for a program cloud your vision of what is a pretty solid team.

My vision is clear.

Willard averages seven conference wins a season at Seton Hall.
He hasn't played a post-season game in four of seven seasons in South Orange (assuming their bid this year).
He loses, on average, two players a season to "mysterious" circumstances.
He openly allowed his starting backcourt from two seasons ago to be harassed by teammates (which resulted in zero discipline).
He quietly allowed one of those backcourt players to be robbed by two people on the "pretty solid team" you describe above (which resulted in zero discipline).

It was a smoke and mirrors finish for a program that excels in flaming small spaces. I live in New Jersey. I know the Hall program from the inside. Everything they do is a dumpster fire. But I wouldn't expect anyone in the Upper Midwest to know what's below the surface of wins/losses so you're only partially at fault for being misguided.

[Bocephys]

Very cool idea.  Do you own that document?  It'd be cool to get a little more in depth in terms of seeing which conference has owned it the most, how many days a team owned it before giving it up, etc.

I do not own this, I saw it linked from someone replying to Paint Touches on twitter.  I am only a consumer in this world, I add no value.

EDIT: I'm helping! http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=40365

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

My vision is clear.

Willard averages seven conference wins a season at Seton Hall.
He hasn't played a post-season game in four of seven seasons in South Orange (assuming their bid this year).
He loses, on average, two players a season to "mysterious" circumstances.
He openly allowed his starting backcourt from two seasons ago to be harassed by teammates (which resulted in zero discipline).
He quietly allowed one of those backcourt players to be robbed by two people on the "pretty solid team" you describe above (which resulted in zero discipline).

It was a smoke and mirrors finish for a program that excels in flaming small spaces. I live in New Jersey. I know the Hall program from the inside. Everything they do is a dumpster fire. But I wouldn't expect anyone in the Upper Midwest to know what's below the surface of wins/losses so you're only partially at fault for being misguided.

[bilsu]

My vision is clear.

Willard averages seven conference wins a season at Seton Hall.
He hasn't played a post-season game in four of seven seasons in South Orange (assuming their bid this year).
He loses, on average, two players a season to "mysterious" circumstances.
He openly allowed his starting backcourt from two seasons ago to be harassed by teammates (which resulted in zero discipline).
He quietly allowed one of those backcourt players to be robbed by two people on the "pretty solid team" you describe above (which resulted in zero discipline).

It was a smoke and mirrors finish for a program that excels in flaming small spaces. I live in New Jersey. I know the Hall program from the inside. Everything they do is a dumpster fire. But I wouldn't expect anyone in the Upper Midwest to know what's below the surface of wins/losses so you're only partially at fault for being misguided.

Maybe true, but what does this have to do with their next game?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

You never know what those 12 teams could do between now and sunday though

Conference tournament games aren't as valued by the committee as regular season games. Mostly they are used for tiebreakers in seeding.

Fans underestimate the difficulty of moving up and down the bubble. Single game results don't move the needle unless they extraordinary results like beating Nova or losing to Depaul.

Bracket Matrix has 10 teams behind us before the cut off. 1 of those is Illinois State. They literally can do nothing to help themselves moving forward. Another is MTSU. Either they get an autobid or they beat some crap teams and lose to 1 crap team. Three of the teams behind us are all in the Big East. They can't all have good trips to NYC.

So really, there's not much the teams behind us can do.

[Loose Cannon]

I'm impressed with all the Knowledgeable Nerds on this thread.  Thank you.

[Marcus92]

I think we win take the lead early (somewhere during the first 5 minutes), never give it up and win by 8 to 12.

Against Xavier, from the time we broke a 10-10 lead at the 14-minute mark of the first half, we never trailed. We led by 12 at half, and Xavier never got closer than 8 the entire rest of the way. In other words, X was never really in the game.

A similar story against Creighton. We led for all but 1 minute and 26 seconds of the game. Up 10 at half. The Bluejays got within 5, but no closer.

We're a much better team than when we first played Seton Hall. We finished the regular season outscoring opponents 431-372 (86.2 to 74.4 ppg) in our last 5 games. That included four victories against good teams with an average winning margin of 16 points.

[muwarrior69]

I think we win take the lead early (somewhere during the first 5 minutes), never give it up and win by 8 to 12.

Against Xavier, from the time we broke a 10-10 lead at the 14-minute mark of the first half, we never trailed. We led by 12 at half, and Xavier never got closer than 8 the entire rest of the way. In other words, X was never really in the game.

A similar story against Creighton. We led for all but 1 minute and 26 seconds of the game. Up 10 at half. The Bluejays got within 5, but no closer.

We're a much better team than when we first played Seton Hall. We finished the regular season outscoring opponents 431-372 (86.2 to 74.4 ppg) in our last 5 games. That included four victories against good teams with an average winning margin of 16 points.

....and the Hall are a much better team when they played us last, winning 5 of their last 6 games. Yes we are better, but so are they.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

....and the Hall are a much better team when they played us last, winning 5 of their last 6 games. Yes we are better, but so are they.

Maybe. I think we have improved more than they have. Look at their last 6 games a little closer:

6 point win vs. CREI at home (we won by 8)
22 point loss vs. NOVA at home (we won by 2)
7 point win vs. X at home (we won by 22)
3 point win vs. DEP on the road (we won by 13)
3 point win vs. GTWN at home (we won by 10)
6 point win vs. BUT on the road (we lost by 8)

Honestly, the only game where I think they were impressive was @Butler. The rest were underwhelming results against middle of the conference competition. Seems kind of like Creighton post Mo Watson honestly.

So will the Hall team that beat Butler on the road show up? Or will the Hall team that barely escaped Depaul and Georgetown show up?

[wadesworld]

Maybe. I think we have improved more than they have. Look at their last 6 games a little closer:

6 point win vs. CREI at home (we won by 8)
22 point loss vs. NOVA at home (we won by 2)
7 point win vs. X at home (we won by 22)
3 point win vs. DEP on the road (we won by 13)
3 point win vs. GTWN at home (we won by 10)
6 point win vs. BUT on the road (we lost by 8)

Honestly, the only game where I think they were impressive was @Butler. The rest were underwhelming results against middle of the conference competition. Seems kind of like Creighton post Mo Watson honestly.

So will the Hall team that beat Butler on the road show up? Or will the Hall team that barely escaped Depaul and Georgetown show up?

Margin of victory hardly matters at all, especially when you're trying to do it while comparing how you did against similar opponents.

[MuMark]

Margin of victory over the long run against similar opponents will give you a good indicator. All of the best computer ranking models use margin of victory in some shape or form.

If 2 teams played the same exact schedule and team A was 10-10 but in the wins won by 20 and in the losses lost by an average of 3 and team B also went 10-10 but won by an average of 3 in the wins but lost by an average of 20 in the losses it would tell you that team A is likely better then team B

[wadesworld]

Margin of victory over the long run against similar opponents will give you a good indicator. All of the best computer ranking models use margin of victory in some shape or form.

If 2 teams played the same exact schedule and team A was 10-10 but in the wins won by 20 and in the losses lost by an average of 3 and team B also went 10-10 but won by an average of 3 in the wins but lost by an average of 20 in the losses it would tell you that team A is likely better then team B

All about matchups. Team A could beat team C by 20 because they match up well against them while team B could beat team C by 2 in overtime. Means nothing towards what would happen between teams A and B.

We've played Seton Hall twice. Both games came down to the wire. We're very close to each other, regardless of how we've faired against common opponents.

If we want to decide who's been playing better as of late compared to early in the conference it'd be better to compare our results with teams we played early in the year and then late in the year.

[Stretchdeltsig]

Marquette's archers will prevail.  Start raising the flag.

[MuMark]

I agree we are very close to SH but we will in all likelihood be favored by something close to the Pomeroy projection of 4 points.

Certainly a game either side could easily win.

[forgetful]

Very cool idea.  Do you own that document?  It'd be cool to get a little more in depth in terms of seeing which conference has owned it the most, how many days a team owned it before giving it up, etc.

Don't ask me why I did this, but the ACC has owned it the most, followed by the combined total of non power conferences.  The Big East is a close 3rd.  Most interesting aspect, the Pac12 has only owned it for a grand total of ~36 days since 2001.  I say approximate because I wasn't very strict on accuracy, and can't be certain on when the season started each year (I didn't include offseason days in holding the title).

For comparison sake, Duke has held it for ~300 days, far longer than anyone else, and longer than the entire SEC, entire Big10, entire Big12 and Pac12. 

Only the BE has held it longer than Duke.

That's kind of crazy.

[muwarrior97]

We need to shoot well. We will not win the game, if we are throwing up klunkers. What concerns me is that I believe we are 0-3 in the Garden this year. I think that is where we played Michigan and Pitt.

Time for us to go 3-0 @ Da Garden 

[thekahoona]

[Johnny B]

That crazy thing is what if were all wrong and were not a lock. Lots say us vs SH is a play in game but idk whose wrong or right here. both should be in really.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Margin of victory hardly matters at all, especially when you're trying to do it while comparing how you did against similar opponents.

If your premise is that matchup is an important part of the puzzle, I would agree with you. I would also agree that margin of victory alone can't give you the whole picture, not even close. But it is relevant data.

Margin of victory mattas.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That crazy thing is what if were all wrong and were not a lock. Lots say us vs SH is a play in game but idk whose wrong or right here. both should be in really.

Its not us who would be wrong. It would be 129 out 130 bracketologists who would be wrong.

The talking heads say that about any team who isn't a stone cold lock. At this point, we would need beyond extraordinary results from conference tournaments to not be included in the tournament.