Trying to Stay Optimistic

[brewcity77]

First off, I am massively disappointed with the recent stretch. As I stated elsewhere, having one or two of these losses as anomalies I could accept, but stringing 4 disappointing performances, especially after the tone we had on January 24, that's cause for concern. I won't say I'm not concerned. I am. We are playing like absolute dogcrap right now. The defense is a shambles, the offense isn't as crisp, there's very little in terms of positives to take away from this stretch (beating DePaul, not much of a positive). But I'm trying to keep perspective. Here's why:

1: We're Not This Bad

We also aren't as good as we looked January 24. We're around an average high-major team right now. Probably end up somewhere between 8-10 and 10-8, where most of us felt we'd be to start the season. It's a massive letdown after winning the Championship Belt on January 24 and feeling like we could compete with anyone, but it's better than where we were a year ago when we weren't even in the bubble conversation.

2: Recruiting

Wojo and his staff have an eye for talent. He landed Henry, Howard, and Hauser, who all look like excellent potential players at this level. Even with the disappointment we've seen with Cheatham of late, we've had immediate meaningful minutes from him and Traci, while Heldt at the least looks like he can give meaningful minutes as a rotation player. Wojo really hasn't had any recruit of his own that looked out of his element. Maybe Anim, but we knew he'd be a project. If he can recruit defensive stoppers (we'll find out next year) as well as he can recruit shooters, there's hope on the back end. He's also done well with the grad transfers he landed.

3: Short Term Hope

If we were to torpedo Wojo, I have no doubt the roster next year would look worse than the one Wojo inherited. There's no reason to think the incoming recruits would stick. When Wojo took over, the only kid he kept was the Wisconsin local, and there are none of those in this class. We have two graduate transfer eligible seniors, keeping one would be lucky. Howard and Cheatham came a long way for this staff, would they stay in Milwaukee for a new staff? It's entirely possible that next year's roster would be Hauser, Anim, Heldt, Froling, and whatever else the new coach could coddle together. It would get worse before it got better. And forget about Branden Bailey as well.

Right now even the pessimists can hold out hope for a NIT bid this year and the tournament next year. Make a change and the soonest we'd be able to even consider a tourney bid would be 2019, and that would take a near miracle (or John Calipari). If Wojo can get these guys back on the same page, there is still a chance of the NCAAs this year and a full roster for next year.

4: Sunk Cost Fallacy

The counter to the above is that if Wojo isn't the guy, no amount of short term hope justifies a long-term commitment. I agree with this. However, I also feel it's still too soon to know he's not the guy. He deserves to see his first class become upperclassmen. He deserves more than 4 months of Howard and Hauser. He deserves to get a chance with the type of roster he wants to build, which means letting John, Eke, and Cain get here.

As much as the past couple weeks have sucked, there's no guarantee that replacing Wojo with Kevin Keatts, Archie Miller, Will Wade, or anyone else will fix things any faster. More likely, we'd be having these same discussions about them for the next three years before we started to figure out if the new guy could coach.

5: Reasonable Expectations

The first year was a throwaway. We had a terrible roster. I'm willing to write that off. Last year, we at least competed. 20 wins, 8 in league, that's progress. No, it wasn't postseason good, but it was better than the 2014-15 trainwreck. This year, my hope was the postseason. Obviously the NCAA is the goal, but even making the NIT would be clear and demonstrable progress. I still feel invited postseason play should be the goal for this year. After 'Nova, I had us penciled into a NCAA berth, but NIT would still be better than last year. That said, NCAA should be a must next year, and being back to being a competitive (top-4 in the league, routinely ranked, and stringing together consistently encouraging performances win or lose) program in 2018-19 is where I feel we should reasonably be.

That takes Wojo to year 5. I think that's the most fair time to judge, but if this downward spiral continues and we also miss the tournament next year without clear progress, I'd be happy to report to the Al with my pitchfork and torch at whatever appointed time we determine.

6: Building a Program Ain't Easy

It's easy to point to Coach K, Jay Wright, Bill Self, Rick Pitino, and others who took years and sometimes multiple jobs before they started winning big. But look at our own program. It took Al 3 years to get to the NIT and 4 to get to the NCAAs. It took O'Neill 4 years to reach the NCAAs. Crean needed 3 years. The only guys that really won early were Hank, Deane, and Buzz, who inherited strong programs from the aforementioned coaches.

I'm not at all saying Wojo will be an all-time great. But every time people talk about this needing to go faster, I ask for examples of guys who turned a program around from scratch in less time. I can't recall one example of a guy who did it in a year or two with a roster as bad as the one Wojo started with. In the grand scheme, another year or two isn't that long of time, and will be a more complete gauge than we have now.

_____
___________
_____

Conclusion

At the end of the day, we all want Marquette to be an elite program. We want to be competing for league crowns, Final Fours, and national titles. Maybe not every year, but often enough that those goals never become stale or unreachable. Right now, they feel that way. I am not convinced Wojo is the answer, but think about the progress we have seen. Divorce yourself from the emotion and just think about the actual facts. First McDonald's All-American since Kerry Trotter. From 13 wins in 2015 to 20 wins in 2016. Three wins over top-10 teams (one less than Buzz in his 6 years here). Our first ever regular season win over #1.

There are questions. If we don't make an invite tourney this year, that's a huge blemish. The roster construction has been a problem, though we've belabored the downsides to recruiting Henry and how it impacted Wojo's ability to recruit and retain length. The defense is terrible, and that's probably me being nice. But what if Howard can become the player he's shown himself to be in flashes? What if the Hausers both end up here and do the same? What if the athletic length next year starts to fix the defensive problems? What if the current offensive issues are the outlier and we routinely have a top-10 offense? I fully feel that in 1-2 years, we will have a much better idea of the answers to those questions than we do now. Not making the tournament this year won't answer any of those things decisively.

In 2003, Jay Wright had a losing record in his second year. In 2004, he went to the NIT with a .500 record. In 2005 he made the Sweet 16 enroute to 12 NCAA appearances in 13 seasons, with a National Title, Final Four, and Elite Eight sprinkled in. If Wojo isn't our Jay Wright, then we fire him in 2018 or 2019. But if he is, doesn't he deserve the same chance Jay got?

[1SE]

"That takes Wojo to year 5. I think that's the most fair time to judge, but if this downward spiral continues and we also miss the tournament next year without clear progress, I'd be happy to report to the Al with my pitchfork and torch at whatever appointed time we determine."

I agree with most of this. And the above means that if we do miss NCAA (and NIT?) this year. it needs to be at least a warm seat next year. Part of the problem with this team - no sense of "do or die" -maybe their coach needs that mentality before he can impress is on his players.

[B. McBannerson]

Takes 4 to 5 years.  Wojo took over a non NIT program with not very good players with the exception for Burton, who did not want to be here. 

Kevin O'Neill in year three against a very weak MCC, didn't make the NIT.  Crean in year 3, lost in the first round of the NCAAs.  Short memories here.  We continue to get better each year. 

Howard has run into the freshman wall, he is lost right now.  Too many guys playing for themselves, not for team. Some of them will not be on this team next year.  Stay positive.

[nyg]

Alot of what if's in your conclusion Brew, but nice opinion.   

Bottom line is first year     4-14
                     second year 8-10
                     third year    6-7 so far with capability of going 8-10 or worse.
                     fourth year will be Wojo's hot seat if under 500% in BE

Next year MU, without an addition of a quality grad PF or center, you have Heldt starting probably the first ten games or so, then an unproven Froling coming in.  Really like Hauser.  Howard will develop, but has not played to the likes of lets say Ponds/Lovett duo to date, he has hit some sort of wall lately.  Cheatham has digressed so much, its just mind boggling following his freshman season.  Rowsey will be a scorer off the bench, as will Duane Wilson.  The majority remaining players are all freshmen none of whom are top rated recruits, and next year the excuses will again return to the "we are too young" again. 

I presume the starters will be:

Howard PG
Cheatham SG
Cain  SF ( can't start Duane, just too small)
Hauser PF
Heldt C

I too try to be optimistic, but looking at the above lineup, pessimism has taken over.  Losing Luke, JJJ and Reinhardt might be fine for some, but losing them, especially Luke will hurt.  I just have the outlook as grim for next year and its a shame, but still root for the team. 

[brewcity77]

Next year MU, without an addition of a quality grad PF or center, you have Heldt starting probably the first ten games or so, then an unproven Froling coming in.  Really like Hauser.  Howard will develop, but has not played to the likes of lets say Ponds/Lovett duo to date, he has hit some sort of wall lately.  Cheatham has digressed so much, its just mind boggling following his freshman season.  Rowsey will be a scorer off the bench, as will Duane Wilson.  The majority remaining players are all freshmen none of whom are top rated recruits, and next year the excuses will again return to the "we are too young" again.

Next year, barring some rash of injuries or freak occurrences, shouldn't really allow for any excuses. We will be young, but the defense has to improve. The added length needs to pay off. With the exception of Duane, next year's roster will be 100% Wojo's construction. In a pie in the sky world, next year we might have enough defense to give all our shooters the cushion they need to fight for the top-4 of the league.

But if the freshmen don't get over the wall, if Haanif doesn't find his way out of the rut, if Froling is a step too slow and the freshmen are too green to slow down the drivers we've seen an endless stream of, if this team isn't clearly moving toward contention, then I can't see continuing to stand by the staff.

I'm patient and I'm an optimist, but there are limits to both.

[Goose]

4or5

One difference with KO, at this point of his time here there was not a soul not optimistic about the future. He created excitement on and off the court and folks were excited. At this point it seems that most optimistic folks out here are trying to make case for folks to get excited.

I get things do not happen overnight but I sense little real excitement around the program and this is three weeks after beating #1.

I watched the game in a sports bar yesterday and I did not hear a positive word said. That is understandable and I get that. What concerns me was the general lack of interest or confidence in the program.

[muguru]

Idk, though it's progress i suppose, a program like MU should NEVER be satisfied with making NIT's. Mike Deane thought that was a good goal for the program. It really is all about making the dance. Recruits don't much care if you make the NIT or not. Fans don't. I'm just having a really hard time stomaching that the program has fallen this far this quickly. I'd have never in a million years thought it would get this bad this quickly after it was close to breaking into elite status just 5 years ago.

Plus, we cite examples above of how long it has taken Coaches to rebuild...sure Crean lost in the 1st round in year 3, but he got there, and let us not forget in his 4th year he had MU in the Final Four. MU is nowhere near that level currently.

[DegenerateDish]

What frustrates me is MU is consistently a top 5 spender in hoops. Understanding things can't change overnight, here in year 3, I'd like to see better progress. If MU is going to continually invest over $10 mil a year, I'd like to see us trending upward instead of stuck in the middle. Wojo has resources at his disposal, why is the staff around him not better? I'll surely give him another year, but if after year 4 there's no NCAA bids, and MU is spending still like Duke/Louisville, that's a big problem.

[muguru]

In letting Wojo off the hook some...a lot of this is on the admin and their academic requirements now. Wojo can only recruit certain kinds of players. Nothing like hamstringing your basketball coach. It's obvious they care more about their academic reputation and their reputation then they do winning basketball games. Get good kids, they graduate, results are secondary. What a joke.

[MUBigDance]

Giving up on Wojo now I think a bit cynical. Its possible there's someone else out there long term but we're a couple of years away from knowing that.

I think he has an eye for the right type of player. I don't know anything about the recruits considering MU except the links you guys post in the recruiting threads...but I like the potential.

There's still unrealized potential on the horizon...will it pan out we shall see. I'll give a thumbs up/down on Wojo end of March, 2019.

Note: I think he honestly hoped HE would stick another year...and learned a lesson. (So did I and a lot of hindsight 20-20 scoopers methinks).

[GoldenDieners32]

It takes time. We got spoiled with all the sweet 16s we got to. We'll be back in no time. WE ARE MARQUETTE

[GGGG]

It's obvious they care more about their academic reputation and their reputation then they do winning basketball games.

Good.

[muguru]

Good.

Wrong! I could care less about the academic reputation of the school..not an alum. I care only about the BB program and how much they win. If they aren't going to care about that anymore, then stop investing so much in it, and be content being a mid major. And if you as a fan are okay with that...not sure what to say.

[GGGG]

Wrong! I could care less about the academic reputation of the school..not an alum. I care only about the BB program and how much they win. If they aren't going to care about that anymore, then stop investing so much in it, and be content being a mid major. And if you as a fan are okay with that...not sure what to say.

Stop acting as if a quality basketball program and a solid academic reputation are mutually exclusive.  They aren't.

[tower912]

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.   Going into the season, I thought the lack of size was going to be an Achilles heel, but I assumed it would be a rebounding issue, not a defensive issue.
  MU has two great wins.  Bottom line, this team has to shoot well to win.  And those other coaches aren't dummies.  Now the scout is out.
  Am I optimistic going forward.  On a 1-10 scale, I am a 6.  For the following reasons.

1.  Size is coming.
2.  JjJ is leaving.
3.  Markus will be 18 and the kid wants to lead.
3a.  Sam will be 15 lbs stronger.
4.  I believe Wojo has the capacity to learn and grow.
5.  Still going to have some shooters.
6.  Froling knows he can't get by on talent any more.

IF MU fires Wojo, the only way to prevent a complete player exodus and roster carnage is if they promote Johnson.  And the program will still be in the hands of an unproven assistant.   And that is the best case scenario.

We had a stud coach.  That relationship soured.  Any hire is a dice roll.   The best short and medium range hope for MU hoops is to stick with Steve.  I'm not convinced he is the one, but I see the building blocks and blueprint.  And if MU were to pull the trigger and roll the dice again, it is equally likely we are in the same place 3-4 years from now.

FWIW, I worried when Crean left that MU was one bad hire from becoming Depaul.  I still think Wojo can become the coach MU needs.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

4.  I believe Wojo has the capacity to learn and grow.

What wojo does with his staff in this offseason will confirm/deny this for me.  Also will be telling on his sense of urgency to improve.

[GoldenDieners32]

What wojo does with his staff in this offseason will confirm/deny this for me.  Also will be telling on his sense of urgency to improve.

Wojo has to want to learn. We have some good pieces coming in next season. Froling,Cain,eke,Theo. We have sacar coming back, hopefully he used the redshirt year right. Hopefully we can land Greg Elliot to finish the recruiting class. Next season I see us a step forward from this season. Hopefully the defense is better and I hope wojo keeps recruiting long athletic players for 2018

[Herman Cain]

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.   Going into the season, I thought the lack of size was going to be an Achilles heel, but I assumed it would be a rebounding issue, not a defensive issue.
  MU has two great wins.  Bottom line, this team has to shoot well to win.  And those other coaches aren't dummies.  Now the scout is out.
  Am I optimistic going forward.  On a 1-10 scale, I am a 6.  For the following reasons.

1.  Size is coming.
2.  JjJ is leaving.
3.  Markus will be 18 and the kid wants to lead.
3a.  Sam will be 15 lbs stronger.
4.  I believe Wojo has the capacity to learn and grow.
5.  Still going to have some shooters.
6.  Froling knows he can't get by on talent any more.

IF MU fires Wojo, the only way to prevent a complete player exodus and roster carnage is if they promote Johnson.  And the program will still be in the hands of an unproven assistant.   And that is the best case scenario.

We had a stud coach.  That relationship soured.  Any hire is a dice roll.   The best short and medium range hope for MU hoops is to stick with Steve.  I'm not convinced he is the one, but I see the building blocks and blueprint.  And if MU were to pull the trigger and roll the dice again, it is equally likely we are in the same place 3-4 years from now.

FWIW, I worried when Crean left that MU was one bad hire from becoming Depaul.  I still think Wojo can become the coach MU needs.

Stan would be an awesome replacement for Wojo. I am confident he could get restore us to the Cream/Buzz standard. He has all the relationships with the recruits and he knows how to motivate.

[GoldenDieners32]

Stan would be an awesome replacement for Wojo. I am confident he could get restore us to the Cream/Buzz standard. He has all the relationships with the recruits and he knows how to motivate.

He might be able to recruit and motivate but can he actually coach when it comes down the wire?

[brewcity77]

Stan would be an awesome replacement for Wojo. I am confident he could get restore us to the Cream/Buzz standard. He has all the relationships with the recruits and he knows how to motivate.

I'd pass on Johnson. He's a great recruiter, but if the answer to fixing the defense was on the staff, it would have happened by now. Right now, we've invested ourselves in Wojo. If he can't fix what ails this team in the next two years, the last thing we should do is hand it over to an assistant who was at his side for almost all of that time.

[GoldenDieners32]

I'd pass on Johnson. He's a great recruiter, but if the answer to fixing the defense was on the staff, it would have happened by now. Right now, we've invested ourselves in Wojo. If he can't fix what ails this team in the next two years, the last thing we should do is hand it over to an assistant who was at his side for almost all of that time.

I do not think we should fire Wojo like you said because we have invested so much into him. Just give him time

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That's my concern with Johnson as well. Seems like a great recruiter and person, but why would you promote the assistant of the guy you just fired?

[MikeDeanesDarkGlasses]

I do not think we should fire Wojo like you said because we have invested so much into him. Just give him time

Time for what?

The guy can't coach at all.  It's that simple.  You don't coach 3 years and have no defensive identity whatsoever.  Luke Fischer appears to have gotten worse along with Wilson.  Those are traits of someone who doesn't have a grasp of what they're doing.  You can puff your chest out about 4* Rivals recruits coming, but that means nothing when you're tail feathers handed to you by ranked opponents.  Let's call the Villanova win what it was.....an outlier.  MU was going to have a couple of those this year anyways with all the shooters they have.  If several of them get hot and hit the 3, most teams are in trouble.  The problem is that we're not Golden State.  We're Golden Shower State right now.

[Herman Cain]

That's my concern with Johnson as well. Seems like a great recruiter and person, but why would you promote the assistant of the guy you just fired?

My ideal scenario is some desperate Power 5 football school hires Wojo.  We get paid out big money on the non compete clause , step up and hire Stan for entry level coach pay and pocket the difference. We then have the coin to reinstate the MU Rifle team,

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

My ideal scenario is some desperate Power 5 football school hires Wojo.  We get paid out big money on the non compete clause , step up and hire Stan for entry level coach pay and pocket the difference. We then have the coin to reinstate the MU Rifle team,

But again, if we're not happy with Wojo, why would we hire the guy under him?