4-3 down the stretch...

[GoldenZebra]

We went 5-3 in our first 8 games. Those games included Nova, @Butler, @Hall, @NOVA, and @Creighton. 5 of the 6 toughest games on our schedule. Now we think 4-3 in our last 7 is very unlikely? Come on!

Yeah. I think its unlikely, given the recent performance. but who knows, maybe the loss to Prov and SJU were just the bad games MU had to get out of its system after recent success.

[MUBigDance]

i don't get this mentality. We aren't coaches or players. What is wrong with speculating what final record gets us in?

Players should be taking one game at a time. We can do whatever we want.

I agree Coleman

[brewcity77]

I don't even really think we'd be on the bubble at 10-8 and a first round BET exit again either CU, X or Butler.  Unless you consider an 8 or 9 seed the bubble.

I think that might be optimistic, mainly because our RPI would still be around 55-65. I also think if we win 18 or fewer, we're headed to the NIT. You still need enough wins.

That's why I laughed when Wojo said there were 9 teams in the league with a shot at the tourney (or did he just say postseason?). St. John's had 13 losses at the time and dropped another that night. No way they're in the mix for the postseason unless they win out. A 16-15 team isn't going Dancing, and probably isn't going to the NIT either.

[MUBigDance]

My take is 4-3 and a BET loss might do it....BUT what if we win the next 4 and lose the last 3...then lose the first one in the BET? We'll have a losing streak at the end...doesn't smell good.

But in general I agree that 19-12 will get us in...we have quality wins...serious quality. Feel like its been a long time since we could say that.

I also think 3-4 with 2 BET wins also gets us in. 20-13 and even more quality.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think that might be optimistic, mainly because our RPI would still be around 55-65. I also think if we win 18 or fewer, we're headed to the NIT. You still need enough wins.

That's why I laughed when Wojo said there were 9 teams in the league with a shot at the tourney (or did he just say postseason?). St. John's had 13 losses at the time and dropped another that night. No way they're in the mix for the postseason unless they win out. A 16-15 team isn't going Dancing, and probably isn't going to the NIT either.

He said postseason.  There are still 9 alive for postseason play, 8 for NCAA, though PC and Gtown are long shots for the NCAA without big runs.  If SJU pulls out a few more, could see them going to the NIT if what happened to us last year doesn't happen to them.

We'll see on 9-9 vs. 10-8 and what the BET ultimately means, but man, our wins look so much better than the rest of the bubble.  Saturday mixed that up a bit, but I still there we're in good shape.  I honestly still think we could get to Dayton at 9-9, but I definitely would be watching nervously.  A win over Butler/X/Creighton in the first round of the BET after a 9-9 finish I think would punch our ticket.

Here's to hoping we just take care of business the next month and none of this matters.

[mug644]

I feel confident that 19-12 (10-8) would do it. That includes a first-round loss in the Big East Tournament.

If we did that, it would mean at worst, wins over Providence, Georgetown, St. John's, and one of Creighton/Butler/Xavier. That would mean our worst loss on the season was a road game at St. John's (not all that bad) and we'd likely have 3 top-30 wins with only 1 sub-100 loss (and that a road game at a top-150 team).

If we lose any other games (Providence, Georgetown, St. John's) but still get to 10-8, that's more top-30 win(s). We'd be on the bubble and sweating until the end, but I feel confident that will do it.

Further, 10-8 would make it highly likely we end up playing in the 4/5 game. Even if we were to lose that, it would most likely be to Xavier, Butler, Creighton, or Seton Hall, none of which would be a bad loss. We'd take a slight RPI hit, gain a little in SOS, call it a wash and we'd still be in.

People talk about the soft bubble this year, but the simple reality is that with the expansion to 68, the bubble is always going to be soft. This year is no exception. We play in what will be at worst the 3rd strongest conference by pretty much any metric. A winning record when coupled with the specific wins we have will get us in. Even if it's a play-in, 19-12 will do just fine.

I'm buyin' that sound logic. Now, the team just has to go out and prove you right.

[blikemike2]

Its gonna be dang close. I wouldn't be surprised if we only won 1-2 games in the next 7, its very unlikely we even go 4-3. I just don't see it. MU basically only wins if we shoot well and our opponent shoots poorly. Not a recipe for a winning record down the stretch.
MU is almost guaranteed to have another poor shooting night (its happened more than once, granted not often), and doesn't have the defensive ability to get enough stops to compensate for poor shooting.

What a fan   Good grief.

[RushmoreAcademy]

Will definitely be a year to root on the #1 seeds in the mid major tournaments.

[MUDPT]

T-Rank has us at about 30% chance of winning 9 games and about 30% chance of winning 10 games.  It will probably be one of those.  Fortunately, we have 3 "toss up games" at home and 2 on the road.

[muguru]

As Jekyll and Hyde as this season has been for MU thus far, the reality is, they essentially control their own destiny for finishing 2nd in the BE with games still left vs Butler, Xavier(x2) and Creighton. Definitely very doable.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Yeah. I think its unlikely, given the recent performance. but who knows, maybe the loss to Prov and SJU were just the bad games MU had to get out of its system after recent success.

There is some wisdom in looking at recent performances to project going forward. But in most cases, each night is a brand new night. A team could reach its ceiling or floor in any given game regardless of how they did recently. I believe this especially holds true for teams as offense dependent as Marquette.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

I believe the maddening thing about this team is we could go 7-0 or 0-7, or anywhere inbetween.  Maddening for the fans and im sure even more maddening for the coaching staff.  I saw this being the case before the season started n heretofore see no reason it changes.  Therefore , any speculation on where they might finish is an excercise in absolute fultilty.  The only thing this team is consitant in is inconsistancy.

[MUBigDance]

Thinking about 4-2 vs 3-3 down the stretch. Both doable. But 4-2 is very difficult to figure.

More and more I see Butler at home tonight as critical.

With each game we play now the "do or die" component looms larger and larger.

[Loose Cannon]

I believe the maddening thing about this team is we could go 7-0 or 0-7, or anywhere inbetween.  Maddening for the fans and im sure even more maddening for the coaching staff.  I saw this being the case before the season started n heretofore see no reason it changes.  Therefore , any speculation on where they might finish is an excercise in absolute fultilty.  The only thing this team is consitant in is inconsistancy.

Does this mean you will have no more predictions concerning this team?  Only observations?

[jsglow]

Thinking about 4-2 vs 3-3 down the stretch. Both doable. But 4-2 is very difficult to figure.

More and more I see Butler at home tonight as critical.

With each game we play now the "do or die" component looms larger and larger.

It's interesting because trends seem to develop.  In 2010-11, JFB personally carried us to a series of wins down the stretch, some in OT, that took a marginal team in early February to the Sweet 16.  In contrast, Buzz' last team folded like a cheap tent from a similar early February perch.

I guess we'll find out.

[fjm]

It's interesting because trends seem to develop.  In 2010-11, JFB personally carried us to a series of wins down the stretch, some in OT, that took a marginal team in early February to the Sweet 16.  In contrast, Buzz' last team folded like a cheap tent from a similar early February perch.

I guess we'll find out.

Who carries us, if you had to pick.

I think either Fisch, Katin, or Rowsey shoulder the load. One of those 3 will be the one to step up.

And this is nothing against the rest of the guys. I think those 3 are just playing at a higher level right now and know what it takes.

[PGsHeroes32]

It's interesting because trends seem to develop.  In 2010-11, JFB personally carried us to a series of wins down the stretch, some in OT, that took a marginal team in early February to the Sweet 16.  In contrast, Buzz' last team folded like a cheap tent from a similar early February perch.

I guess we'll find out.

I think that's kinda a mixture of both teams jimmys last two years

[Galway Eagle]

Who carries us, if you had to pick.

I think either Fisch, Katin, or Rowsey shoulder the load. One of those 3 will be the one to step up.

And this is nothing against the rest of the guys. I think those 3 are just playing at a higher level right now and know what it takes.

I'm not sure someone being the only one shouldering the load is actually beneficial for this team. This teams best weapon is that 8 of their players could go off at an absurd rate during any given game. Making it so one player tries to be that go to guy would result in failure I believe.

[jsglow]

I think that's kinda a mixture of both teams jimmys last two years

You're right! Those road OT wins were in 09-10, Jimmy's breakout year.  Both those years we were on the brink (or worse) in mid February.  JFB really was THE MAN.

[jsglow]

Who carries us, if you had to pick.

I think either Fisch, Katin, or Rowsey shoulder the load. One of those 3 will be the one to step up.

And this is nothing against the rest of the guys. I think those 3 are just playing at a higher level right now and know what it takes.

Or ALL of them.  Wojo needs to look each of them in the eye.  NOW son.

[brewcity77]

I'm not sure someone being the only one shouldering the load is actually beneficial for this team. This teams best weapon is that 8 of their players could go off at an absurd rate during any given game. Making it so one player tries to be that go to guy would result in failure I believe.

Agreed. On any given night, we could get a SOTG performance out of almost anyone on the roster. I'd rather let the hot hand step up than feel we have to rely on the same guy night in and night out.

[Loose Cannon]

I'm not sure someone being the only one shouldering the load is actually beneficial for this team. This teams best weapon is that 8 of their players could go off at an absurd rate during any given game. Making it so one player tries to be that go to guy would result in failure I believe.

Yeah, I'm thinking the same, absolutely agree one of our most strong points is the 8 players capable of being game changers.  Look on The SoG Tally and all the discussions as to the many close call in deciding who it will be.

[Bocephys]

Agreed. On any given night, we could get a SOTG performance out of almost anyone on the roster. I'd rather let the hot hand step up than feel we have to rely on the same guy night in and night out.

I think this does limit our ceiling somewhat, though it obviously raises our floor as well.

[Folks,,,]

Thinking about 4-2 vs 3-3 down the stretch. Both doable. But 4-2 is very difficult to figure.

More and more I see Butler at home tonight as critical.

With each game we play now the "do or die" component looms larger and larger.

Maybe because there are 7 games left on the schedule?