4-3 down the stretch...

[Coleman]

...and are we a lock? Or does that leave work to do in NYC?

[brewcity77]

Yes. 4-3 will do it.

[Marquette4life]

I really think we need 20 wins to get in.

[brewcity77]

I really think we need 20 wins to get in.

19-12 (10-8) would do it.

[Marquette4life]

Are u sure brew, team rankings says we need 20

[muwarrior69]

Well let's actually win 4; then we can talk.

[KampusFoods]

Are u sure brew, team rankings says we need 20

Another year, maybe. But this year's bubble is super duper weak.

[NotAnAlum]

4-3 Does it.  But it isn't going to be easy to get to 4-3.  While none of the remaining 7 are games that I think we are overmatched and very unlikely to win; neither are any of them games where I can confidently predict a win.  Back when everyone was despondent after the Wisconsin lost I posted that in the 2nd true year of a rebuild we needed to just look for improvement and enjoy the ride.  Now that we're close I've got to remember that again.  Go out there and play our game and hopefully the ball bounces our way in at least 4 games.  Expect them all to be very close.

[goldeneagle91114]

Well let's actually win 4; then we can talk.

Agree, i'm nervous about the rest of the games from here on out.

[GoldenZebra]

Its gonna be dang close. I wouldn't be surprised if we only won 1-2 games in the next 7, its very unlikely we even go 4-3. I just don't see it. MU basically only wins if we shoot well and our opponent shoots poorly. Not a recipe for a winning record down the stretch.
MU is almost guaranteed to have another poor shooting night (its happened more than once, granted not often), and doesn't have the defensive ability to get enough stops to compensate for poor shooting. 

[Coleman]

nvm

[Coleman]

Well let's actually win 4; then we can talk.

i don't get this mentality. We aren't coaches or players. What is wrong with speculating what final record gets us in?

Players should be taking one game at a time. We can do whatever we want.

[Herman Cain]

To assure our position , we need 4-3 plus at least 1 win in the BET.  Also will be interesting to see how the teams currently below us finish out the regular season.

Obviously the players take it one game at a time.

[jsglow]

Its gonna be dang close. I wouldn't be surprised if we only won 1-2 games in the next 7, its very unlikely we even go 4-3. I just don't see it. MU basically only wins if we shoot well and our opponent shoots poorly. Not a recipe for a winning record down the stretch.
MU is almost guaranteed to have another poor shooting night (its happened more than once, granted not often), and doesn't have the defensive ability to get enough stops to compensate for poor shooting.

Very unlikely?  Like a 10-15% chance?

[Buzz Williams' Spillproof Chiclets Cup]

MU basically only wins if we shoot well and our opponent shoots poorly.

[wadesworld]

Just beat Butler tomorrow and go from there.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Its gonna be dang close. I wouldn't be surprised if we only won 1-2 games in the next 7, its very unlikely we even go 4-3. I just don't see it. MU basically only wins if we shoot well and our opponent shoots poorly. Not a recipe for a winning record down the stretch.
MU is almost guaranteed to have another poor shooting night (its happened more than once, granted not often), and doesn't have the defensive ability to get enough stops to compensate for poor shooting.

We went 5-3 in our first 8 games. Those games included Nova, @Butler, @Hall, @NOVA, and @Creighton. 5 of the 6 toughest games on our schedule. Now we think 4-3 in our last 7 is very unlikely? Come on!

[brewcity77]

Are u sure brew, team rankings says we need 20

I feel confident that 19-12 (10-8) would do it. That includes a first-round loss in the Big East Tournament.

If we did that, it would mean at worst, wins over Providence, Georgetown, St. John's, and one of Creighton/Butler/Xavier. That would mean our worst loss on the season was a road game at St. John's (not all that bad) and we'd likely have 3 top-30 wins with only 1 sub-100 loss (and that a road game at a top-150 team).

If we lose any other games (Providence, Georgetown, St. John's) but still get to 10-8, that's more top-30 win(s). We'd be on the bubble and sweating until the end, but I feel confident that will do it.

Further, 10-8 would make it highly likely we end up playing in the 4/5 game. Even if we were to lose that, it would most likely be to Xavier, Butler, Creighton, or Seton Hall, none of which would be a bad loss. We'd take a slight RPI hit, gain a little in SOS, call it a wash and we'd still be in.

People talk about the soft bubble this year, but the simple reality is that with the expansion to 68, the bubble is always going to be soft. This year is no exception. We play in what will be at worst the 3rd strongest conference by pretty much any metric. A winning record when coupled with the specific wins we have will get us in. Even if it's a play-in, 19-12 will do just fine.

[Coleman]

I feel confident that 19-12 (10-8) would do it. That includes a first-round loss in the Big East Tournament.

If we did that, it would mean at worst, wins over Providence, Georgetown, St. John's, and one of Creighton/Butler/Xavier. That would mean our worst loss on the season was a road game at St. John's (not all that bad) and we'd likely have 3 top-30 wins with only 1 sub-100 loss (and that a road game at a top-150 team).

If we lose any other games (Providence, Georgetown, St. John's) but still get to 10-8, that's more top-30 win(s). We'd be on the bubble and sweating until the end, but I feel confident that will do it.

Further, 10-8 would make it highly likely we end up playing in the 4/5 game. Even if we were to lose that, it would most likely be to Xavier, Butler, Creighton, or Seton Hall, none of which would be a bad loss. We'd take a slight RPI hit, gain a little in SOS, call it a wash and we'd still be in.

People talk about the soft bubble this year, but the simple reality is that with the expansion to 68, the bubble is always going to be soft. This year is no exception. We play in what will be at worst the 3rd strongest conference by pretty much any metric. A winning record when coupled with the specific wins we have will get us in. Even if it's a play-in, 19-12 will do just fine.

This makes sense, and I agree. I'd sure hate to have our first NCAA appearance in 4 years be a play-in game though. If we lost and didn't even get to play on the first real day of the tournament, that would be disappointing. 

So does 20 wins mean we avoid a play-in?

[1SE]

This team could just as easily go 6-1 as 1-6.

Just no one bring up "must win" until we need to win out to 19!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Y'all. Illinois State is in the tourney right now.

These are their five best wins (RPI):
Wichita State (57)
New Mexico (84)
Tulsa* (111)
@Southern Illinois (135)
St. Joe's (138)

These are their five worst losses:
@Murray State (223)
@Tulsa (111)
San Francisco* 104
@Wichita State (57)
@TCU (43)

Compare that to us:

5 best wins:
Villanova (2)
@Creighton (16)
Seton Hall (37)
@Georgia (50)
Vanderbilt* (56)

5 worst losses:
@St. John's (119)
Michigan* (79)
Providence (67)
Pittsburgh* (55)
@Seton Hall (37)

The bubble is REAL REAL soft. We have some room to fall.

[GoldenDieners32]

Y'all. Illinois State is in the tourney right now.

These are their five best wins (RPI):
Wichita State (57)
New Mexico (84)
Tulsa* (111)
@Southern Illinois (135)
St. Joe's (138)

These are their five worst losses:
@Murray State (223)
@Tulsa (111)
San Francisco* 104
@Wichita State (57)
@TCU (43)

Compare that to us:

5 best wins:
Villanova (2)
@Creighton (16)
Seton Hall (37)
@Georgia (50)
Vanderbilt* (56)

5 worst losses:
@St. John's (119)
Michigan* (79)
Providence (67)
Pittsburgh* (55)
@Seton Hall (37)

The bubble is REAL REAL soft. We have some room to fall.

I rather convincingly make the tourney than just making it because the bubble is soft

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I rather convincingly make the tourney than just making it because the bubble is soft

Well I'd rather have sex with Mila Kunis because she finds me attractive rather than me being the last man on Earth but I'd take it either way!

[GoldenDieners32]

Well I'd rather have sex with Mila Kunis because she finds me attractive rather than me being the last man on Earth but I'd take it either way!

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I feel confident that 19-12 (10-8) would do it. That includes a first-round loss in the Big East Tournament.

If we did that, it would mean at worst, wins over Providence, Georgetown, St. John's, and one of Creighton/Butler/Xavier. That would mean our worst loss on the season was a road game at St. John's (not all that bad) and we'd likely have 3 top-30 wins with only 1 sub-100 loss (and that a road game at a top-150 team).

If we lose any other games (Providence, Georgetown, St. John's) but still get to 10-8, that's more top-30 win(s). We'd be on the bubble and sweating until the end, but I feel confident that will do it.

Further, 10-8 would make it highly likely we end up playing in the 4/5 game. Even if we were to lose that, it would most likely be to Xavier, Butler, Creighton, or Seton Hall, none of which would be a bad loss. We'd take a slight RPI hit, gain a little in SOS, call it a wash and we'd still be in.

People talk about the soft bubble this year, but the simple reality is that with the expansion to 68, the bubble is always going to be soft. This year is no exception. We play in what will be at worst the 3rd strongest conference by pretty much any metric. A winning record when coupled with the specific wins we have will get us in. Even if it's a play-in, 19-12 will do just fine.

I don't even really think we'd be on the bubble at 10-8 and a first round BET exit again either CU, X or Butler.  Unless you consider an 8 or 9 seed the bubble.