Bubble Watch

[nyg]

Well on ESPN right now Lunardi says Providence is in Dayton, and MU is still avoiding Dayton.  So, methinks Mr. Sand-Knit is just making crap up again.

Saw that Michigan State dropped also to the byes in front of us.

Knew X, Prov or MU had to go to play in. We'll see.......

[BM1090]

So the rumored opponent is St Mary's.

Anyone know anything about them?

Lol what do you mean the rumored opponent

[Loose Cannon]

Well on ESPN right now Lunardi says Providence is in Dayton, and MU is still avoiding Dayton.  So, methinks Mr. Sand-Knit is just making crap up again.

Yeah, kind of like a weather Vane.

[mayfairskatingrink]

Lol what do you mean the rumored opponent

Homer tweeted about MU playing St Mary's.

[GGGG]

Homer tweeted about MU playing St Mary's.

He's just reading what Lunardi posted.

[Benny B]

I don't think we'll be in Dayton. I've said as much elsewhere.

On what, single v double digit seed? Position on S-Curve? Dayton v bye?

One thing to remember, there's a chance Creighton, Marquette, Seton Hall, Xavier, and Providence are all on the 7-10 lines. That could force seed movement to avoid conference matchups.

I know everyone loves Lunardi because he's on the mothership, but he's never been great at seeding, just great at the field. I wouldn't look to him (or Palm) when it comes to seeds.

As mentioned previously... if you take teams' RPI off their resumes, MU's resume stacks up quite well against other 7&8 seeds.

If this is the year the SC finally gets past RPI, MU is an easy 8 and very much in the running for a 7.  No miss whatsoever.

[MU82]

Don't start scouting opponents until we get one unless you really have so much time on your hands you don't know what else to do. We'll have a real opponent to scout soon enough ... unless Mrs. Sand-Knitwit is right and we miss the tourney, miss the NIT and have next season canceled due to Wojo being the worst coach in basketball history.

[amen426]

Kind of strange that Providence went from being ahead of us to behind us on Lunardi's bracket...

This is why I never care for the up-to-the-minute analysis for Bracket Matrix or individual bracketologists.. Providence and Marquette haven't played in days, but they flip flopped spots overnight - where Providence is now in Dayton.

Not sure what would really cause that. Whether he's getting word from the committee, or a change of opinion..

As most have mentioned, seeding Providence/Marquette/Xavier will prove to be very difficult. Would not be surprised if we were in Dayton. Also wouldn't be shocked if we were in the 8-9 game..

If I had to predict.. i'll say the seeding will go like this for the Big East..

1 - Nova
4 - Butler
6 - Creighton
7 - Seton Hall
10 - Providence
11 - Marquette
11 - Xavier (Dayton)

Honestly have no idea on the last 3. But I do think Seton will be higher than the other 3, even though they are all currently projected in the 10-11 range.

Anything outside of Dayton and I'll be pumped. And hopefully they somehow get a game in Tulsa on Friday, so I can try and make that 3-4 hour drive from Dallas to see the game..

[BM1090]

Kind of strange that Providence went from being ahead of us to behind us on Lunardi's bracket...

This is why I never care for the up-to-the-minute analysis for Bracket Matrix or individual bracketologists.. Providence and Marquette haven't played in days, but they flip flopped spots overnight - where Providence is now in Dayton.

Not sure what would really cause that. Whether he's getting word from the committee, or a change of opinion..

As most have mentioned, seeding Providence/Marquette/Xavier will prove to be very difficult. Would not be surprised if we were in Dayton. Also wouldn't be shocked if we were in the 8-9 game..

If I had to predict.. i'll say the seeding will go like this for the Big East..

1 - Nova
4 - Butler
6 - Creighton
7 - Seton Hall
10 - Providence
11 - Marquette
11 - Xavier (Dayton)

Honestly have no idea on the last 3. But I do think Seton will be higher than the other 3, even though they are all currently projected in the 10-11 range.

Anything outside of Dayton and I'll be pumped. And hopefully they somehow get a game in Tulsa on Friday, so I can try and make that 3-4 hour drive from Dallas to see the game..

Lunardi also has us ahead of X but has X as a 10 seed and us as an 11. So who knows.

[MU82]

The only BE "lock" I think has to be behind us is X. We beat the crap out of them twice, beat the likely overall No. 1 seed (which beat the crap out of them twice) and have a better record in the same conference. I'd understand PU and obviously SH being ahead of us. X would be a real head-scratcher to me.

[nyg]

The only BE "lock" I think has to be behind us is X. We beat the crap out of them twice, beat the likely overall No. 1 seed (which beat the crap out of them twice) and have a better record in the same conference. I'd understand PU and obviously SH being ahead of us. X would be a real head-scratcher to me.

If RPI is a big factor, then X has us by a bunch.  Currently X is 36 and MU is 60. 

[brewcity77]

Also...part of my expectation of an 8/9 is pessimism, because what I really want is to play in Indy, but for that we'd almost certainly have to be on the 7/10 line.

[T-Bone]

I'm going 7. Every year when I have thought 9/10, it's been higher. And there's no money on the line.

[wadesworld]

We'll see whether the committee disregards conference tournaments like some here say or if they overvalue them like others here say.  My stance has always been they value them for what they are, 1-4 games in a 30-35 game season.  Of course most teams are going to stay roughly right around where they were projected to be going into the conference tournament, because there aren't a ton of "needle moving" wins or losses in these tournaments.  Most teams will do roughly what is expected of them.

BUT.  When you are a team like Michigan that is projected around an 8 seed going into the conference tournament and then you beat Purdue, Minnesota, and Wisconsin in a 3 day span, or you're a team like Duke that's projected as a 4 seed going into your conference tournament and beat Clemson, Louisville, North Carolina, and Notre Dame in a 4 day span you're going to be moving up multiple lines.  Heck, even Iowa State who was projected around a 7 seed will move up, and their only "needle moving" win was against West Virginia given that Baylor and Kansas were upset before either got to Iowa State.

[amen426]

We'll see whether the committee disregards conference tournaments like some here say or if they overvalue them like others here say.  My stance has always been they value them for what they are, 1-4 games in a 30-35 game season. 

I've had that same stance, throughout. Always though a Big East tournament game would mean just as much as a win over X or Creighton down the stretch..

The tough thing is - no one really knows what the committee thought of teams on the bubble prior to the conference tournament.

Some think Vanderbilt is a good example.. Most had them out going into the SEC tournament. Beat A&M, Florida, then got stomped by Arkansas. If they jump all the way to a 9 or 10 (like Lunardi is showing), it would be hard to ignore that they at least value Tournament games the same as Regular season games...

[muguru]

I'm thinking/hoping, if seeding comes down to a "tie" between PC, Xavier, SH, MU, that MU's win over Nova will trump everything else. That could end up being a HUGE feather in MU's cap.

[MU82]

If RPI is a big factor, then X has us by a bunch.  Currently X is 36 and MU is 60.

Fair enough. I guess we'll see shortly how they value RPI compared to all the stuff I mentioned.

[Eldon]

Guys, guys, guys, Lunardi is good...but let's remember that he's not actually on the selection committee.

[amen426]

Guys, guys, guys, Lunardi is good...but let's remember that he's not actually on the selection committee.

True, but he's certainly somewhat connected.

That last minute move of Providence from ahead of MU & Xavier, to behind both and in the play-in game was a little telling to me.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This is why I never care for the up-to-the-minute analysis for Bracket Matrix or individual bracketologists.. Providence and Marquette haven't played in days, but they flip flopped spots overnight - where Providence is now in Dayton.

As someone who checked bracketmatrix pretty frequently, I can tell you that Providence was never ahead of Marquette. X hasn't been ahead of Marquette since the regulars season ended. The only flip flopping that occurred Seton Hall passing Marquette after they won in the BET.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

True, but he's certainly somewhat connected.

That last minute move of Providence from ahead of MU & Xavier, to behind both and in the play-in game was a little telling to me.

Yah definitely interesting. He must've been tipped off.