Bubble Watch

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

What am I missing? We get a Top 50 road win and Lunardi only has us as last four bye? That doesn't seem to be much of a reward.

[cheebs09]

What am I missing? We get a Top 50 road win and Lunardi only has us as last four bye? That doesn't seem to be much of a reward.

Isn't the thought with Lunardi that his teams are usually right, but seeds are usually off? Personally, I think we are a high 10 or low 9 on the strength of our top 50 wins. I still hate to say lock, but think we are in a good spot.

[bradley center bat]

Middle Tennessee escapes with a 3 point home win against an awful FIU team.

At this point I fully expect MTSU to get an at large if they win their final conference game but lose in the CUSA tourney, but man, I don't know if they should.

I'm not sure they will get an at large. Wins over Ole Miss and Vanderbilt who will not make it. Are they hanging their hat on UNCW and Belmont.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

I didnt watch the top 16 show from a few weeks back what did they say? 
Did they make specific references to the top 50 wins?  And to not ising the rpi as much?  Those two topics seem to be brought up alot.  Its interesting beacause i have always been amazed by how much the commitee has basically deferred to the RPI.  Which is a big reason i have concerns, we seem to be good everywhere but rpi. 

[cheebs09]

I didnt watch the top 16 show from a few weeks back what did they say? 
Did they make specific references to the top 50 wins?  And to not ising the rpi as much?  Those two topics seem to be brought up alot.  Its interesting beacause i have always been amazed by how much the commitee has basically deferred to the RPI.  Which is a big reason i have concerns, we seem to be good everywhere but rpi.

I didn't see it, but remember no Big Ten teams included. Lack of Top 50 wins was a big reason. There's been a few articles about the going away from the RPI. There was a summit of sorts with people who developed other type of rankings (Pomeroy, BPI, Glockner).

[bilsu]

At that point Villanova was 1 and Butler 16. They did not have Wisconsin in the top 16 and the commentators found that hard to believe. Since then Wisconsin has lost 4 or 5 games. The committee certainly had sound insight when it came to Wisconsin. They were not a top 4 seed when they were leading the Big 10, so I wonder were the committee would put them now.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

At that point Villanova was 1 and Butler 16. They did not have Wisconsin in the top 16 and the commentators found that hard to believe. Since then Wisconsin has lost 4 or 5 games. The committee certainly had sound insight when it came to Wisconsin. They were not a top 4 seed when they were leading the Big 10, so I wonder were the committee would put them now.

Did they give a reason? Like say lack of top 50 wins cuz we are putting an emphasis on this?

[forgetful]

At that point Villanova was 1 and Butler 16. They did not have Wisconsin in the top 16 and the commentators found that hard to believe. Since then Wisconsin has lost 4 or 5 games. The committee certainly had sound insight when it came to Wisconsin. They were not a top 4 seed when they were leading the Big 10, so I wonder were the committee would put them now.

8 vs. 9 game against Marquette.

[bilsu]

I could see Wisconsin easily being in the 8/9 game. I can see MU also being there, if we beat Creighton. However, I think the committee tries not to match you against a team you already played in the first round and tries hard not to have it happen in the second round.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

What am I missing? We get a Top 50 road win and Lunardi only has us as last four bye? That doesn't seem to be much of a reward.

People overestimate how much a team can move up or down on the bubble. That's why our position is so solid. Even if we lose to Creighton and Wake Forest wins at Virginia Tech, they won't move ahead of us on the bubble.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I didnt watch the top 16 show from a few weeks back what did they say? 
Did they make specific references to the top 50 wins?  And to not ising the rpi as much?  Those two topics seem to be brought up alot.  Its interesting beacause i have always been amazed by how much the commitee has basically deferred to the RPI.  Which is a big reason i have concerns, we seem to be good everywhere but rpi.

The general message was the RPI was a lot less important than it used to be, and top 50 wins are more important than they used to be.

[drewm88]

Cal getting absolutely smoked by Utah.

[Sharpie]

The general message was the RPI was a lot less important than it used to be, and top 50 wins are more important than they used to be.

If they're going away from RPI which they should - are they using top 50 kp wins, top 50 sag wins, top 50 bpi wins, or top 50 rpi? I think it's off to use top 50 rpi wins if they're going away from using. Rpi is much more flawed than any of the other metrics used. The rpi is our only downfall at this point so here's to hoping it really is on its way out.

[Big Papi]

If they're going away from RPI which they should - are they using top 50 kp wins, top 50 sag wins, top 50 bpi wins, or top 50 rpi? I think it's off to use top 50 rpi wins if they're going away from using. Rpi is much more flawed than any of the other metrics used. The rpi is our only downfall at this point so here's to hoping it really is on its way out.

The articles that I read was that the rpi could be used less starting next year and replaced with other metrics.  I think the rpi is still an important tool for them this year.

[Sheriff]

Vandy, GA and SH now with RPIs of 47, 49 and 50, respectively.  Precariously close to no longer being top 50 wins but also on the bubble with MU.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Vandy, GA and SH now with RPIs of 47, 49 and 50, respectively.  Precariously close to no longer being top 50 wins but also on the bubble with MU.

Ga RPI is 51. If you include then in top 50, MU has 7 top 50 wins, not 6.

And regarding what metric used for top 50/100 wins, my understanding is they're still going to use RPI for that, but less as a raw metric. Meaning no silly cut offs if a teams RPI is in the 70s but body of work and other metrics are strong. I think RPI will continue to be used to some degree, but they also realize that there are stronger metrics out there at this point.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Vandy, GA and SH now with RPIs of 47, 49 and 50, respectively.  Precariously close to no longer being top 50 wins but also on the bubble with MU.

Careful where you get your RPI numbers. ESPN is consistently wrong. Georgia is not quite top 50 yet.

Also RPI doesn't go up or down simply because you win or lose. That helps but its much more complicated than that. With Vanderbilt playing Florida and Seton Hall playing at Butler, there is little to no chance that their RPI goes down if they lose those games. At the end of the regular season, they will be top 50 wins.

[Windyplayer]

ESPN Bubble Watch:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Marquette [18-11 (9-8), RPI: 59, SOS: 68] Look out, world: Marquette can score the basketball. This has been the case all season, but this week's 95-points-in-71-trips power outage at the Cintas Center might have been the best the Golden Eagles have played on that side of the floor all season, and that's saying something. The problem, of course, is defense, but if Marquette could guard folks it wouldn't be anywhere close to the bubble, and how much fun would that be? (Not that much, we say. Marquette fans might disagree.) Anyway, the Golden Eagles have a real chance of beating Creighton at home Saturday, and what's already looking like a bracket-worthy team could get an even more significant boost in advance of the Big East tourney.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Meh. Doesn't hurt, but it doesn't make much difference one way or the other. A win for Wisco may bump our RPI a tiny bit. Iowa isn't getting an at large.

I find it interesting that Iowa could end up 10-8 in the BIG? but not get an At-large, that would be a lock in the BEast. Further evidence of a down year in the BIG?.

[Windyplayer]

I find it interesting that Iowa could end up 10-8 in the BIG? but not get an At-large, that would be a lock in the BEast. Further evidence of a down year in the BIG?.

Yes, I think on average the Big Ten's highest seed is a 5.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I find it interesting that Iowa could end up 10-8 in the BIG? but not get an At-large, that would be a lock in the BEast. Further evidence of a down year in the BIG?.

Look at Iowa's non-conference:

Wins:
Iowa State (RPI 27)
Northern Iowa (RPI 152)
North Dakota (RPI 178)
Kennesaw State (RPI 258)
Savannah State (RPI 280)
UT-Rio Grande Valley (RPI 322)
Stetson (RPI 328)
Delaware State (RPI 330)

Losses:
Virginia (RPI 16)
@Notre Dame (RPI 23)
Seton Hall (RPI 49)
Memphis (RPI 117)
Nebraska Omaha (RPI 140)

[BM1090]

Bracket Matrix Update:

Average seed: 10.18
Projected In: 104/109 Brackets
Highest/Lowest: 7 seed/12 seed
8th last team in (last four byes)

All 5 brackets that have us out have us as the first team out. Two of them are solely computer generated.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The writing is on the wall, gentlemen.

[VegasWarrior77]

Caught this AP writer's article this morning in our local paper:

https://www.usnews.com/news/sports/articles/2017-03-03/big-east-eyeing-7-ncaa-tournament-bids

Big East Eyeing 7 NCAA Tournament Bids
The Big East is in good NCAA Tournament shape at the top, with Villanova, Butler and Creighton.

By JOHN MARSHALL, AP Basketball Writer

The Big East has been strong at the top, led by defending national champion Villanova.

The second-ranked Wildcats (23-3, 14-3 Big East) won the regular-season conference title and will be the No. 1 seed in next week's Big East Tournament regardless of what happens Saturday against Georgetown.

No. 13 Butler (23-6, 12-5) is in good shape for the NCAA Tournament and Creighton (23-7, 10-7) should be as well despite dropping out of the AP Top 25 this week.

The other four Big East teams on the NCAA bubble may still have some to work to do — or at least avoid a bad loss.

Seton Hall (19-10, 9-8) avoided a misstep in one of those can't-lose games by beating Georgetown. The Pirates can help their resume by beating No. 13 Butler, but still should be in good NCAA shape barring a quick exit in the conference tournament.

Providence (19-11, 9-8) had a similar win by beating DePaul this week, but can't afford losing to St. John's on Saturday or an early conference tournament exit. The Friars already lost to St. John's once this season, one of several bad losses already on their resume.

Marquette (18-11, 9-8) has proven it can score and has a win over then-No. 1 Villanova on its resume. The Golden Eagles have trouble on the defensive end, though, which has put them on the bubble.

Marquette beat fellow bubble team Xavier on Tuesday and has a big potential booster on Saturday, facing Creighton in Milwaukee.

Xavier (18-12, 8-9) was once among the elite teams in the conference. Then point guard Edmond Sumner went down with a torn ACL, sending the Musketeers into a tail spin.

Xavier also had to play without Trevon Blueitt in two games and had its losing streak stretched to six with the loss to Marquette. The Musketeers end the season against DePaul, a game they can't afford to lose.

___

ON THE RISE

Northwestern. The Wildcats' long wait to finally reach the NCAA Tournament may be over. Northwestern (21-9, 10-6 Big Ten) had a rough go two weeks ago with losses to Illinois and Indiana, but followed that up with a win over fellow bubbler Michigan. Still, when you've never been to the big dance, the wait is going to be nerve-wracking.

Nevada. The Wolf Pack (24-6, 13-4 MWC) have bounced back from two losses in three games with a five-game winning streak. They face a big game against Colorado State and may have to hope the Mountain West is a two-bid conference if they don't win the MWC Tournament.

Michigan State. Even with a loss to Illinois this week, the Spartans (18-12, 9-7 Big Ten) appear to be in decent shape in a season that looked lost early. A loss to Maryland on Saturday and an early exit in the conference tournament could change that.

Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons (17-12, 8-9 ACC) were in dire need of a marquee win and got one on Wednesday, knocking off No. 8 Louisville 88-81. A win over Virginia Tech on Saturday could help even more.

___

FADING HOPES

California. The Bears (19-10, 10-7 Pac-12) were already teetering on the bubble and a 30-point loss to Utah Thursday night is not going to push the needle forward. Cal may need to beat Colorado and a deep Pac-12 Tournament run to reach the dance.

VCU. The Rams (23-7, 13-4 A10) appeared to be a lock, then last week happened. Losses to Rhode Island and Dayton put a lot more importance on Saturday's home game against George Mason; they still appear to be on the right side of the bubble thanks to a strong RPI, but can't afford to lose this one.

Houston. The Cougars (20-9, 11-6 AAC) failed on a chance for a resume-boosting win this week, losing 65-47 to No. 18 Cincinnati. Now Houston likely has to avoid losing to East Carolina and make a deep run in the conference tournament to have a shot.

Tennessee. The Vols (15-15, 7-9 SEC) may need to win the SEC tournament after losing six of their last eight games, including LSU on Wednesday.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Illinois up 2 at a Rutgers inside 4 minutes. A loss who eliminate them from at large consideration.