Bubble Watch

[Newsdreams]

They just need to get to 10. Doesn't matter how.

9 probably doesn't do it w a loss to DePaul tho. 9 May do it with some other combos of wins / losses.

This and if we win 10 we should end up 4th or tied for 4th. Obvious more than 3 teams will get in.

[brewcity77]

Lets say we lost to either Depaul saturday or St johns again would you think we would need to beat X both times?

10 wins. That's all it comes down to. Whatever the losses are, as long as we have 10+ Big East wins, we're dancing.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

10 wins. That's all it comes down to. Whatever the losses are, as long as we have 10+ Big East wins, we're dancing.

I think so, but I wonder if losing to Depaul would be a bad enough loss that it could keep us out with 10 wins.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I think so, but I wonder if losing to Depaul would be a bad enough loss that it could keep us out with 10 wins.

No, because there would be an extra win vs Butler, Creighton, or Xavier to offset it.

MU already has two top 25 wins.  Getting to 10 wins means at least one more, and at least two more if we lose to DePaul.  No way a team with 4 top 25 wins gets left out with the soft bubble.

[brewcity77]

I think so, but I wonder if losing to Depaul would be a bad enough loss that it could keep us out with 10 wins.

Here's my expectation of likelihood of remaining games:

v St. John's
@ DePaul
@ Providence
v Xavier
@ Georgetown
v Creighton
v Butler
@ Xavier

If we lose DePaul, that means getting a win against either Creighton or Butler, or getting Xavier on the road. Right now, teams like Georgia Tech (loss at home to Ohio), Kansas State (2 top-100 wins), Clemson (loss to #149 Oklahoma), TCU (1 top-50 win, Illinois State), and Wichita State (Zero top-100 wins) are on the inside of the bubble. We can suffer one road loss even against a bad team, knowing it would offset by a top-20 win.

The bubble is awful. Everyone has some pretty serious blemishes. The St. John's loss is our worst by a wide margin. If we lose to DePaul, then finish 5-2 with 2 of those wins over top-20 opponents, I think we'll be okay.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Here's my expectation of likelihood of remaining games:

v St. John's
@ DePaul
@ Providence
v Xavier
@ Georgetown
v Creighton
v Butler
@ Xavier

If we lose DePaul, that means getting a win against either Creighton or Butler, or getting Xavier on the road. Right now, teams like Georgia Tech (loss at home to Ohio), Kansas State (2 top-100 wins), Clemson (loss to #149 Oklahoma), TCU (1 top-50 win, Illinois State), and Wichita State (Zero top-100 wins) are on the inside of the bubble. We can suffer one road loss even against a bad team, knowing it would offset by a top-20 win.

The bubble is awful. Everyone has some pretty serious blemishes. The St. John's loss is our worst by a wide margin. If we lose to DePaul, then finish 5-2 with 2 of those wins over top-20 opponents, I think we'll be okay.

Yup.  This is exactly why I think 9-9 may actually get us in. 9-9 with a loss to Depaul seems less likely, but say we go 4-4 in the rest of the way with wins @ Depaul, vs. SJU, and any of the other two games you listed....our Nova and Creighton wins are still going to look so much better than anyone else around the bubble.  I don't want to test this logic, but I still think MU has at least a 50/50 chance to dance at 9-9. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Just FYI - all but three of the updated brackets since the SJU loss still have MU in the field. 

Still an 8 seed overall.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

[fjm]

Here's my expectation of likelihood of remaining games:

v St. John's
@ DePaul
@ Providence
v Xavier
@ Georgetown
v Creighton
v Butler
@ Xavier

If we lose DePaul, that means getting a win against either Creighton or Butler, or getting Xavier on the road. Right now, teams like Georgia Tech (loss at home to Ohio), Kansas State (2 top-100 wins), Clemson (loss to #149 Oklahoma), TCU (1 top-50 win, Illinois State), and Wichita State (Zero top-100 wins) are on the inside of the bubble. We can suffer one road loss even against a bad team, knowing it would offset by a top-20 win.

The bubble is awful. Everyone has some pretty serious blemishes. The St. John's loss is our worst by a wide margin. If we lose to DePaul, then finish 5-2 with 2 of those wins over top-20 opponents, I think we'll be okay.

DePaul- W

Beat providence, St. John's, and Georgetown.

Steal another 1 at home and that is 10 conference wins.

I honestly think 9-9 sneaks us in. May be a 10 seed but 9-9 gets you inthis year.
The problem is this year the big east is as competitive as I remember. Every game is a chance to lose or win.

[fjm]

Just FYI - all but three of the updated brackets since the SJU loss still have MU in the field. 

Still an 8 seed overall.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

9 seed over all today. And 5 spots away from the "last 4 in"

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

9 seed over all today. And 5 spots away from the "last 4 in"

That hasn't been updated since yesterday am. Not that our DePaul win does much, but it was such a crazy day in CBB that it's worth mentioning.

[fjm]

That hasn't been updated since yesterday am. Not that our DePaul win does much, but it was such a crazy day in CBB that it's worth mentioning.

True. Just looked up yesterday's schedule. A lot of teams took it on the chin.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

DePaul- W

Beat providence, St. John's, and Georgetown.

Steal another 1 at home and that is 10 conference wins.

I honestly think 9-9 sneaks us in. May be a 10 seed but 9-9 gets you inthis year.
The problem is this year the big east is as competitive as I remember. Every game is a chance to lose or win.

I'm confident about St. John's at home. Not particularly confident about either Georgetown or Providence on the road. Georgetown seems to be playing a lot better. Hopefully we can steal one of those.

I actually think we'll need to get two out of the Butler, Xavier, and Creighton home games. Beating Butler on Tuesday would give some breathing room.

[Jay Bee]

No, because there would be an extra win vs Butler, Creighton, or Xavier to offset it.

MU already has two top 25 wins.  Getting to 10 wins means at least one more, and at least two more if we lose to DePaul.  No way a team with 4 top 25 wins gets left out with the soft bubble.

The flaw here is that you're assuming Butler, Creighton and X will all be top 25 teams as of Selection Sunday. It's possible... but certainly not a given.

[fjm]

The flaw here is that you're assuming Butler, Creighton and X will all be top 25 teams as of Selection Sunday. It's possible... but certainly not a given.

fair. But atleast two of them will be. 
It will be nova and a combo of the other 2. Get one or 2 more wins there and you're between 2 & 4 wins vs top 25

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

The flaw here is that you're assuming Butler, Creighton and X will all be top 25 teams as of Selection Sunday. It's possible... but certainly not a given.

Dorsnt matter, quality wins regardless.  Shoot well n we can beat all 3

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We are 3-0 in return games this season. If that continues we're going at least 6-1 the rest of the way! #noseriessweeps

[Jay Bee]

Dorsnt matter, quality wins regardless.  Shoot well n we can beat all 3

When the metric is "top 25 wins" then yes, it dors (sic) matter. The post said, "No way a team with 4 top 25 wins gets left out with the soft bubble."

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

When the metric is "top 25 wins" then yes, it dors (sic) matter. The post said, "No way a team with 4 top 25 wins gets left out with the soft bubble."

You could also take it to mean no way a team with wins for Nova, Creighton, X and Butler are left out of the tournament. Which is true. Don't always have to take things so literally.

You could also look at top 25 as the RPI top 25. That probably means more to the committee than AP rankings anyways. And there is very little chance those four teams drop out of the RPI top 25.

[Jay Bee]

You could also take it to mean no way a team with wins for Nova, Creighton, X and Butler are left out of the tournament. Which is true. Don't always have to take things so literally.

You could also look at top 25 as the RPI top 25. That probably means more to the committee than AP rankings anyways. And there is very little chance those four teams drop out of the RPI top 25.

Oh, I thought he WAS talking about RPI top 25. I disagree that there's very little chance those four drop out.

[SaveOD238]

I actually think we'll need to get two out of the Butler, Xavier, and Creighton home games. Beating Butler on Tuesday would give some breathing room.

20-11, 10-8 in conference, wins against Nova, Xavier, Butler, and @ Creighton, no bad losses...that's better than IN, that's a 6-7 seed.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Oh, I thought he WAS talking about RPI top 25. I disagree that there's very little chance those four drop out.

I haven't ran the numbers but at 2,8,12 and 15, they're all pretty safe for now.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

20-11, 10-8 in conference, wins against Nova, Xavier, Butler, and @ Creighton, no bad losses...that's better than IN, that's a 6-7 seed.

Completely agree. Losing at home to Providence really diminished the margin for error. I'd rather not go into Selection Sunday at 9-9.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

20-11, 10-8 in conference, wins against Nova, Xavier, Butler, and @ Creighton, no bad losses...that's better than IN, that's a 6-7 seed.

I believe we only have 30 games this year, chose to schedule 1 less than allowed. Dumb, the potential fifference between 20 n 19 in tge commitees eyes is big imo

[PGsHeroes32]

I'm confident about St. John's at home. Not particularly confident about either Georgetown or Providence on the road. Georgetown seems to be playing a lot better. Hopefully we can steal one of those.

I actually think we'll need to get two out of the Butler, Xavier, and Creighton home games. Beating Butler on Tuesday would give some breathing room.

I'm pretty confident we win at providence.

I do think we lose the Gtown game tho.

So need 2 of Butler, Creighton and X(2).

[SaveOD238]

One of the last teams in on bracket matrix right now is Miami (FL).  Let's compare...

Marquette: 15-8, 6-5, wins Vanderbilt (n), @Georgia, @Creighton, vs Nova, loss @St Johns

Miami: 15-7, 5-5, wins Stanford, Rutgers, NC State x2, UNC, loss @Wake

Crap...was hoping that would be more obvious of a difference when I started typing

How about Michigan?: 14-9, 4-6, wins Marquette (n), Indiana, loss @Illinois

We may only be one game better than Michigan overall, and they did beat us (probably their best win), but we are still several steps ahead of them when it comes to tourney seeding. 

Take care of business, and even if we end up at 9-9 enough other teams like Michigan or Miami will stumble and we'll be ok.