Bubble Watch

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Now in 106 out of 107 brackets. We hopped over Michigan State and are now the top 10 seed. Gonna need a lot of help to jump the entire 8/9 seed line. Tank for the 10 seed?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Now in 106 out of 107 brackets. We hopped over Michigan State and are now the top 10 seed. Gonna need a lot of help to jump the entire 8/9 seed line. Tank for the 10 seed?

Despite the disrespect we'd be receiving, I will be happy with an 11 seed and bye should we lose on Thursday.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

http://sports.yahoo.com/college-basketball/bigboard/

Yahoo does a nice little matrix that shows top 50 wins.  MU top 10 seed.  Next team to match or beat Marquette in top 50 wins?  Have to go all the way up to Butler, as the top 4 seed. 

Knowing how much the committee loves top 50 wins, I think we may be pleasantly surprised with our seed no matter what happens at MSG.

[brewcity77]

http://sports.yahoo.com/college-basketball/bigboard/

Yahoo does a nice little matrix that shows top 50 wins.  MU top 10 seed.  Next team to match or beat Marquette in top 50 wins?  Have to go all the way up to Butler, as the top 4 seed. 

Knowing how much the committee loves top 50 wins, I think we may be pleasantly surprised with our seed no matter what happens at MSG.

I agree. Wouldn't surprise me if the bracket experts are underseeding us. Similar to how the 2010 team was 2-3 lines higher than most everyone expected.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I agree. Wouldn't surprise me if the bracket experts are underseeding us. Similar to how the 2010 team was 2-3 lines higher than most everyone expected.

Plus if we beat SHU, and Georgia sneaks into the top 50, we'd have 9.

Edit: RPI Wizard puts Georgia exactly at 50 with a win over Tennessee and loss to Kentucky in the SEC tournament, so adding them to the top 50 win list is certainly conceivable. 

[MomofMUltiples]

I agree. Wouldn't surprise me if the bracket experts are underseeding us. Similar to how the 2010 team was 2-3 lines higher than most everyone expected.

Ok, once you start talking like this you are really inviting the karma fairies to come screw with us. Just sayin'.

[BM1090]

UNC-W wins CAA tournament. It was unlikely anyways, but no bid thief from the CAA

[TheGreenKnight]

As Mick Cronin said, seeding is a farce designed to create "money matchups." It really doesn't matter where the committee seeds us as our opponent, probably another at large team, may not be any better than us.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

What's up with Eamonn Brennan? No Bubble Watch in 3 days? Does ESPN have one of those "Take as much time off as you need" benefit time policies? Does he think he's a millenial? GET BACK TO WORK!

[RideMyBuycks]

What's up with Eamonn Brennan? No Bubble Watch in 3 days? Does ESPN have one of those "Take as much time off as you need" benefit time policies? Does he think he's a millenial? GET BACK TO WORK!

He tweeted they will be back to daily updates starting tomorrow AM.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

Oh - never mind.



(thx)

[MUDPT]

As Mick Cronin said, seeding is a farce designed to create "money matchups." It really doesn't matter where the committee seeds us as our opponent, probably another at large team, may not be any better than us.

I saw this quote and I see his point, but most of the tournament sites were sold out before the tournament started a few years ago.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I saw this quote and I see his point, but most of the tournament sites were sold out before the tournament started a few years ago.

Tournament committee chair was asked about Cronins comment and he specifically said it has no bearing on bracketing and that 95% of tickets are sold before the bracket is released.

[RideMyBuycks]

Oh - never mind.



(thx)

Also, he's very much a millennial at a sprightly 31 years old

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Another update on bracketmatrix. We are still in the same spot, top 10 seed. We are now in 124/125 brackets. The only bracket we are not in is real time RPI, which I believe exclusively uses RPI to determine the field.

At this point there are only 8 teams outside the field currently appearing on any brackets. There are 10 teams between us and the NIT. 4 of the 8 teams only appear on 5 brackets or less. A fifth team only appears on 9 brackets. A 6th only appears on 13 brackets. It really seems like there are only two teams on the outside with a legitimate shot, Rhode Island and Kansas State. And it won't be at our expense. For fun, here's the resumes side by side compared to Marquette.

Marquette:
Record: 19-11
RPI: 55
KP: 28
SOS: 45
Top 50: 7-6
Top 100: 10-10
Best Wins: NOVA (1), @CREI (27), @XAV (34)
Worst Losses: @SJU (138), @GTWN (96), PITT (70)

Rhode Island:
Record: 21-9
RPI: 42
KP: 51
SOS: 64
Top 50: 2-3
Top 100: 4-7
Best Wins: CINC (13), VCU (23), BEL (61)
Worst Losses: FORD (211), LAS (126), @RICH (85)

Kansas State:
Record: 19-12
RPI: 59
KP: 32
SOS: 53
Top 50: 3-8
Top 100: 5-10
Best Wins: @BAY (6), @OKST (35), WVU (22)
Worst Losses: @OKLA (153), @TTU (106), TCU (79)

Always important to remember, we don't have to outrun the bear. Just our slowest friend. These two represent the slow friend we have to outrun. Feeling pretty good.

[Herman Cain]

Here is a research report prepared by CBS Sports.  They have an analysis of all 7 candidates.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/march-madness-2017-big-east-tournament-field-is-set-seven-could-go-dancing/

[TheGreenKnight]

Tournament committee chair was asked about Cronins comment and he specifically said it has no bearing on bracketing and that 95% of tickets are sold before the bracket is released.

True, however, you can't tell me seeding a middling Michigan State team a little higher to face a Duke or UNC, for example, in order to get better ratings and thus raising TV revenues in the long haul doesn't happen...

[EaglesNest]

How Illinois is still on the bubble after losing to Rutgers confuses me

[amen426]

Same as Providence being in despite losing to Boston College and Depaul..

Vandy lost to Missouri..

Plenty of bad losses on the resumes for bubble teams, and even teams locked into the tourny (like Providence).

Being in the last 4 or 8 out doesn't really mean they are close. They're not.

[MUMonster03]

Finally moved to the teams that should be in on ESPN as well.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

[Benny B]

True, however, you can't tell me seeding a middling Michigan State team a little higher to face a Duke or UNC, for example, in order to get better ratings and thus raising TV revenues in the long haul doesn't happen...

It doesn't happen.  Ever.  Committee has a job to do and that job isn't to maximize revenue for the NCAA. Heck, there isn't even an NCAA rep at the selection table... you think these AD's from all over the country give a damn about ticket sales or ratings in Salt Lake City?

[GGGG]

True, however, you can't tell me seeding a middling Michigan State team a little higher to face a Duke or UNC, for example, in order to get better ratings and thus raising TV revenues in the long haul doesn't happen...

When do you believe this has happened previously?

[StillAWarrior]

Tournament committee chair was asked about Cronins comment and he specifically said it has no bearing on bracketing and that 95% of tickets are sold before the bracket is released.

This response assumes that the NCAA tournament derives its money from ticket sales.  I'm skeptical.  The large majority of the income is from the television rights, not ticket sales.  So, intriguing match-ups that draw eyeballs lead to higher ratings which leads to better broadcast rights deals.

[GGGG]

This response assumes that the NCAA tournament derives its money from ticket sales.  I'm skeptical.  The large majority of the income is from the television rights, not ticket sales.  So, intriguing match-ups that draw eyeballs lead to higher ratings which leads to better broadcast rights deals.

So the committee takes into account potential television ratings for a tournament whose television deal stretches into the 2030s? 

And again, show me an example of when this has occurred.  When has a team been moved among seed lines to set up a television match-up that would draw more eyeballs then it would otherwise?

[forgetful]

So the committee takes into account potential television ratings for a tournament whose television deal stretches into the 2030s? 

And again, show me an example of when this has occurred.  When has a team been moved among seed lines to set up a television match-up that would draw more eyeballs then it would otherwise?

There is always the conspiracy theory that certain matchups were setup, because they have cool story lines.  But the bottom line is that the frequency with which that occurs is well within what one would expect based on random chance.  There aren't that many ways to arrange things and fit all the rules.

People love a good conspiracy theory though.