If the Big 12 expansion raids the AAC to free UConn, would you...

[Marcus92]

We do need them. Not now, but by 2026 (I think that's the year). BEast basketball ratings have been extremely underwhelming. If we don't give Fox more bang for their buck, no way we get anywhere close to this kind of money when we renew our contract. Best things we can do are keep winning (not totally in our control) and add programs that move the needle. UConn moves the needle more than any other program we could reasonably hope for.

There's no question that UConn's on-court success over the past 20 years puts the program in rare company. I'm just not sure how much value that translates into for the Big East in terms of viewership — either in their home market, or nationwide — which is ultimately what drives rights deals.

UConn was 40th in the country in attendance last season, averaging 10,413 per game. That's solid, roughly equivalent to Providence (44th at 9,703) or Georgetown (51st at 8,879). But it's well behind Creighton (10th at 15,941) and Marquette (21st at 13,308) and light years behind the kind of support that Syracuse (2nd at 21,592) or Louisville (3rd at 20,879) draw.

Of course, that's only one measure — one that's of limited value. Duke barely cracks the Top 50 due to playing in a stadium with a capacity under 10,000, but nobody doubts their credentials.

What about market size? Apart from Creighton, UConn plays in a smaller metro area (Hartford ranks 47th) than every school in the Big East. I can't speak to their TV ratings, but I think it's a stretch to say that UConn reaches the NY market (which St. John's truly does).

If I had other data, I'd cite it. But I don't see UConn as a national brand in the same way as other schools. When the Syracuse Orange came to the Bradley Center, you knew it. Their fans were a sizable and noticeable presence, far more than when the Huskies came to town. It's possible that even with four national titles, UConn today is a lot more like Gonzaga — a big fish in a small regional pond that most fans only pay attention to at tournament time — than a true premier program like Duke or Kentucky.

Finally, if UConn was such an unbelievable athletic program, why doesn't any other conference want them? They have earned a reputation for repeated recruiting infractions and scandals — just the kind of attention most schools want to avoid.

Fox Sports made the 12-year, $500 million deal with the Big East knowing that UConn wasn't part of the package. That's a long-term, big-time commitment. Would the Huskies be a good addition to the Big East's basketball brand? Certainly. I'm just not sure they move the needle to the degree you think. Right now, the future looks a lot brighter for the Big East than it does for UConn.

[Dawson Rental]

There's no question that UConn's on-court success over the past 20 years puts the program in rare company. I'm just not sure how much value that translates into for the Big East in terms of viewership — either in their home market, or nationwide — which is ultimately what drives rights deals.

UConn was 40th in the country in attendance last season, averaging 10,413 per game. That's solid, roughly equivalent to Providence (44th at 9,703) or Georgetown (51st at 8,879). But it's well behind Creighton (10th at 15,941) and Marquette (21st at 13,308) and light years behind the kind of support that Syracuse (2nd at 21,592) or Louisville (3rd at 20,879) draw.

Of course, that's only one measure — one that's of limited value. Duke barely cracks the Top 50 due to playing in a stadium with a capacity under 10,000, but nobody doubts their credentials.

What about market size? Apart from Creighton, UConn plays in a smaller metro area (Hartford ranks 47th) than every school in the Big East. I can't speak to their TV ratings, but I think it's a stretch to say that UConn reaches the NY market (which St. John's truly does).

If I had other data, I'd cite it. But I don't see UConn as a national brand in the same way as other schools. When the Syracuse Orange came to the Bradley Center, you knew it. Their fans were a sizable and noticeable presence, far more than when the Huskies came to town. It's possible that even with four national titles, UConn today is a lot more like Gonzaga — a big fish in a small regional pond that most fans only pay attention to at tournament time — than a true premier program like Duke or Kentucky.

Finally, if UConn was such an unbelievable athletic program, why doesn't any other conference want them? They have earned a reputation for repeated recruiting infractions and scandals — just the kind of attention most schools want to avoid.

Fox Sports made the 12-year, $500 million deal with the Big East knowing that UConn wasn't part of the package. That's a long-term, big-time commitment. Would the Huskies be a good addition to the Big East's basketball brand? Certainly. I'm just not sure they move the needle to the degree you think. Right now, the future looks a lot brighter for the Big East than it does for UConn.

The Atlantic Ten would take them in a heartbeat.  G5 athletic conference invites are based on what a school's football program can do for the conference's TV package.  All other sports are small potatoes compared to football and are given little weight when making those decisions.  The only conferences in a position to make any invite based upon a school's prowess in basketball is the Big East (and Atlantic Ten) because it has no TV package for footbal while men's basketball TV rights are its bread and butter and desert.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

There's no question that UConn's on-court success over the past 20 years puts the program in rare company. I'm just not sure how much value that translates into for the Big East in terms of viewership — either in their home market, or nationwide — which is ultimately what drives rights deals.

UConn was 40th in the country in attendance last season, averaging 10,413 per game. That's solid, roughly equivalent to Providence (44th at 9,703) or Georgetown (51st at 8,879). But it's well behind Creighton (10th at 15,941) and Marquette (21st at 13,308) and light years behind the kind of support that Syracuse (2nd at 21,592) or Louisville (3rd at 20,879) draw.

Of course, that's only one measure — one that's of limited value. Duke barely cracks the Top 50 due to playing in a stadium with a capacity under 10,000, but nobody doubts their credentials.

What about market size? Apart from Creighton, UConn plays in a smaller metro area (Hartford ranks 47th) than every school in the Big East. I can't speak to their TV ratings, but I think it's a stretch to say that UConn reaches the NY market (which St. John's truly does).

If I had other data, I'd cite it. But I don't see UConn as a national brand in the same way as other schools. When the Syracuse Orange came to the Bradley Center, you knew it. Their fans were a sizable and noticeable presence, far more than when the Huskies came to town. It's possible that even with four national titles, UConn today is a lot more like Gonzaga — a big fish in a small regional pond that most fans only pay attention to at tournament time — than a true premier program like Duke or Kentucky.

Finally, if UConn was such an unbelievable athletic program, why doesn't any other conference want them? They have earned a reputation for repeated recruiting infractions and scandals — just the kind of attention most schools want to avoid.

Fox Sports made the 12-year, $500 million deal with the Big East knowing that UConn wasn't part of the package. That's a long-term, big-time commitment. Would the Huskies be a good addition to the Big East's basketball brand? Certainly. I'm just not sure they move the needle to the degree you think. Right now, the future looks a lot brighter for the Big East than it does for UConn.

If people don't tune in for UConn, then the Big East should never expand. There is no better option.

You quote UConn's average attendance of 10,413 per game as a problem. But their home stadium has a capacity of 10,167....so they averaged over a sellout while playing in a sh*tty conference. They would do even better in a real conference.

UConn hasn't made other conferences because their football program is a joke. That don't matter to us.

12 years isn't as long of a commitment as you think. 2026 will be here before you know it. And if Fox could go back in time, I think they would offer the Big East significantly less. We robbed them blind.

UConn absolutely moves the needle. Definitely more than any other option. And DEFINITELY more than options like Dayton and SLU.

[Marcus92]

UConn absolutely moves the needle. Definitely more than any other option. And DEFINITELY more than options like Dayton and SLU.

No disagreement here. Then it comes back to two big issues: 1) UConn's long-term strategy of building a major football program and joining a Power 5 conference; and 2) What other school would join alongside UConn.

As long as UConn is committed to football, I don't see them as a realistic option for Big East expansion. Twenty years after stepping up to Division 1A, their commitment is stronger than ever. Even after the departures of Miami, Boston College, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Louisville and Syracuse. Even after the Big East football division imploded. That's the only reason I suggested a school like St. Louis is a better prospect. (Not a great prospect, mind you, just more likely than 0%.)

To the second point, I'd be surprised if the Big East expands by just 1 team. They'll either stay at 10, or expand to 12. The thing is, there isn't a can't-miss candidate out there right now. It could be that St. Louis or another school significantly improves its basketball program by 2026. But the conference won't expand just to expand. It has to make sense financially, and in terms of long-term fit.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

1. Don't matter to us. It does keep uconn from joining so I understand your argument about them not being realistic. But I wouldn't trust that their commitment is stronger than ever. New leadership has introduced some doubt.

2. I think the preference would be 12 but 11 could work

[Marcus92]

But I wouldn't trust that their commitment is stronger than ever. New leadership has introduced some doubt.

I'm curious who exactly you're referring to. UConn's new AD David Benedict comes straight from Auburn, one of the most football-focused universities in the country. He's the son of a football coach and played football at Arizona St.

University president Susan Herbst came to UConn from Georgia, another football-obsessed school. When she hired Benedict, she said, "David understands football, being in the Big Ten and SEC and what it takes to be better and be a winning program. That's attractive...He understands what makes a great program. He believes as all of us do that we're at the level of the Power Five as far as sheer winning and championships."

http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-huskies/hc-uconn-athletic-director-david-benedict-0301-20160229-story.html

I think the preference would be 12 but 11 could work.

Yes, it could work. The Big Ten was at 11 teams for 20 years. But I'm not sure UConn is the same sure-thing to the Big East today that Penn St. was to the Big Ten in 1990 — i.e. national football brand, AAU school, state institution, top market, great geographic fit. Also, Penn St. joined the Big Ten as a full member with no special exemptions (not for all sports except football, for example).

As I've said before, I have no inside knowledge into expansion discussions. It's possible that UConn is a leading candidate. But I'm trying to look at this as objectively as possible. Based on my understanding of the key criteria and current situation at UConn, I don't see the Huskies joining the Big East anytime soon.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

They match key criteria perfectly for us. We don't match theirs currently. Priorities probably don't change for them now but they're closer than they were a great ago.

[Dawson Rental]

If UConn could join the Big East while parking their football in the AAC or even the Big 12, I'd love to have them.  Them becoming all sports members of a G5 conference is a long enough shot that I would like to bet against it, particularly when betting with house money.  Raids on the old Big East meant that other football schools had to be found to replace those leaving with the result that schools with poor men's basketball programs were being added by necessity for football.  That's not the case now.  Should UConn join and later leave, the Big East just goes back to the status quo (while keeping UConn's NCAA shares for a while), that's why I say its playing with house money, there would be no need to replace them.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Regardless of what happens with the Big 12 expansion discussions, I see no conceivable scenario where UConn is still a member of the American in 10 years.  They are either invited to a power conference, or they are a member of the Big East/Atlantic-10 for Olympic sports.  Continuing to play Tulsa, Tulane, SMU East Carolina, UCF, USF, Houston and Memphis is just not feasible or sustainable long term. 

If the Big 12 doesn't extend them an invitation, they are stuck for a long time.  The B1G won't invite them, not only because they are not an AAU school but also because their football is atrocious and they already have one terrible football program in the Northeast in Rutgers.  The ACC won't invite them because of political issues with Boston College, as well as their lack of success in football (which will cause Florida State and Clemson to avoid inviting them.  There's also the big elephant in the room with Notre Dame.  They (the ACC), much like the Old Big East, will continue to hold out hope that they relinquish independence and join as a full-member. 

[GGGG]

Regardless of what happens with the Big 12 expansion discussions, I see no conceivable scenario where UConn is still a member of the American in 10 years.  They are either invited to a power conference, or they are a member of the Big East/Atlantic-10 for Olympic sports.  Continuing to play Tulsa, Tulane, SMU East Carolina, UCF, USF, Houston and Memphis is just not feasible or sustrightble long term. 

I'll take a bet on that.

[SaveOD238]

I've seen several people post that the Atlantic 10 is an option for UConn if they park football and join another conference for all sports.

The Big East CANNOT let that happen.  If UConn is going to leave the AAC and go to a non-power 5 league, it must be to the Big East.  A conference that adds UConn to VCU, Dayton, SLU, Richmond, St. Bona, and St. Joes becomes a competitor to the Big East for tournament bids, tv eyeballs, and most importantly $$$$.  If there are any hints that UConn might go to the A10, we need to snatch them up immediately.

That said, I don't think they're going anywhere...

[Dawson Rental]

I'm curious who exactly you're referring to. UConn's new AD David Benedict comes straight from Auburn, one of the most football-focused universities in the country. He's the son of a football coach and played football at Arizona St.

University president Susan Herbst came to UConn from Georgia, another football-obsessed school. When she hired Benedict, she said, "David understands football, being in the Big Ten and SEC and what it takes to be better and be a winning program. That's attractive...He understands what makes a great program. He believes as all of us do that we're at the level of the Power Five as far as sheer winning and championships."

http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-huskies/hc-uconn-athletic-director-david-benedict-0301-20160229-story.html

Yes, it could work. The Big Ten was at 11 teams for 20 years. But I'm not sure UConn is the same sure-thing to the Big East today that Penn St. was to the Big Ten in 1990 — i.e. national football brand, AAU school, state institution, top market, great geographic fit. Also, Penn St. joined the Big Ten as a full member with no special exemptions (not for all sports except football, for example).

As I've said before, I have no inside knowledge into expansion discussions. It's possible that UConn is a leading candidate. But I'm trying to look at this as objectively as possible. Based on my understanding of the key criteria and current situation at UConn, I don't see the Huskies joining the Big East anytime soon.

Here's the most telling quote in the article you linked for me:

"The way the Connecticut budget is it's really important for us to generate revenues, be self-sufficient and successful and he understands it," Herbst said.

How do you meet that criteria and still build up your football program to the point that a power 5 conference would want it?

[GGGG]

I've seen several people post that the Atlantic 10 is an option for UConn if they park football and join another conference for all sports.

The Big East CANNOT let that happen.  If UConn is going to leave the AAC and go to a non-power 5 league, it must be to the Big East.  A conference that adds UConn to VCU, Dayton, SLU, Richmond, St. Bona, and St. Joes becomes a competitor to the Big East for tournament bids, tv eyeballs, and most importantly $$$$.  If there are any hints that UConn might go to the A10, we need to snatch them up immediately.

That said, I don't think they're going anywhere...

Why would UConn go to the A10?  That makes no sense.

[Dawson Rental]

I've seen several people post that the Atlantic 10 is an option for UConn if they park football and join another conference for all sports.

The Big East CANNOT let that happen.  If UConn is going to leave the AAC and go to a non-power 5 league, it must be to the Big East.  A conference that adds UConn to VCU, Dayton, SLU, Richmond, St. Bona, and St. Joes becomes a competitor to the Big East for tournament bids, tv eyeballs, and most importantly $$$$.  If there are any hints that UConn might go to the A10, we need to snatch them up immediately.

That said, I don't think they're going anywhere...

If UConn goes the non-football conference option for Olympic sports, I don't think that the big East would tell them to pound sand and go to the Atlantic 10.  I believe that the Big East would be the prohibitive favorite from UConn's point of view, as well.

[SaveOD238]

Why would UConn go to the A10?  That makes no sense.

I agree, but people have said "Big East or A10" in previous posts.  I think we can all agree that the Big East cannot let UConn go to the A10.

[brewcity77]

I agree, but people have said "Big East or A10" in previous posts.  I think we can all agree that the Big East cannot let UConn go to the A10.

The only way, the ONLY way UConn would go to the A10 is if we truly didn't want them. Strictly from a financial perspective, there's no way UConn would play the pauper in the A10 when joining the Big East would be a financial upgrade from their all sports (football included) AAC deal.

[GGGG]

I agree, but people have said "Big East or A10" in previous posts.  I think we can all agree that the Big East cannot let UConn go to the A10.

People can be idiots.  That's not happening.

[Marcus92]

The A-10's current broadcast deal (signed in 2012) is for $40 million and 8 years. That's $5 million a year split between 14 schools, or $357,143 per conference member.

The AAC's deal (signed in 2013) is for $126 million and 7 years. That's $18 million a year split between 12 schools, or $1.5 million per conference member.

The Big East's deal (signed in 2013) is for $500 million and 12 years. That's $41 million a year split between 10 schools, or $4.1 million per conference member.

I see no circumstance where UConn joins the A10, whether it's for all sports or everything except football. It makes zero economic sense. The AAC will survive — even if Cincinnati, Houston and Memphis leave. It would still be one of the best college football conferences outside the Power 5 (as sad as that seems). It would still be UConn's best home as long as their goal is building the football program and joining a P5 conference.

UConn doesn't care if it's damaging its basketball brand, because football is more important to them right now. Although the football program is losing money — to the tune of about $20 million a year — the potential long-term payoff of joining a P5 conference is far bigger than the revenue basketball generates. That payoff is what's blinding university trustees and administrators, whether it's realistic or not.

Here's a great article that explores how UConn got to this point, why they're doomed to fail, and why that doesn't matter:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/14/sports/basketball/football-drags-on-uconns-power-5-ambitions.html?_r=0

[GGGG]

The AAC's television deal is puny compared to the P5, but is fairly sizable when compared to the other G5 conferences.

CUSA gets $200,000 per school.
MAC about $600,000
Sun Belt doesn't look like they get anything from national contracts. 

Only the Mountain West makes more than the AAC.  And at $1.6 million it isn't MUCH more.

[Marcus92]

Here's an interesting article questioning whether the Big 12 truly wants to expand. Instead, it suggests that the conference is merely putting pressure on its broadcast partners to sweeten their current deal.

http://newsok.com/article/5513165

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I've seen several people post that the Atlantic 10 is an option for UConn if they park football and join another conference for all sports.

The Big East CANNOT let that happen.  If UConn is going to leave the AAC and go to a non-power 5 league, it must be to the Big East.  A conference that adds UConn to VCU, Dayton, SLU, Richmond, St. Bona, and St. Joes becomes a competitor to the Big East for tournament bids, tv eyeballs, and most importantly $$$$.  If there are any hints that UConn might go to the A10, we need to snatch them up immediately.

That said, I don't think they're going anywhere...

While I agree that letting the A10 swoop UConn would be a mistake - the A10, even with UCONN, is still a long way away from the Big East.  Solid conference, no doubt, but the Big East has 10 good to great basketball programs.  The A10 would then have 3 or 4 good to great programs, 3 of 4 mediocre, and still a pile of crap. 

[We R Final Four]

DePaul is a good to great basketball program??

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

DePaul is a good to great basketball program??

Ok, I revise my statement to 9.

The point still stands.

[Marcus92]

KenPom ranked DePaul #184 last season.

That's not good, mind you. But it's not atrocious — close to middle of the pack for Division I college basketball. St. John's was worse at #222.

Every conference has its bottom dwellers. Check out Missouri in the SEC at #182.  Washington State at #204 in the Pac 12. Boston College at #248 in the ACC. Or Rutgers and Minnesota in the Big 10, ranked at #291 (!) and #223, respectively.

The Big 12's TCU (#145) is slightly more respectable. Not by much, though.

[brewcity77]

So...I'm not sure if this is serious, but Brett McMurphy of ESPN tweeted out this list of SEVENTEEN candidates the Big 12 is targeting. Okay...deep breath...

Arkansas State ( ), Boise State, BYU, Cincinnati, Colorado State, UConn, East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, NIU, New Mexico, San Diego State, SMU, Temple, Tulane, UCF, USF.

This feels like the awkward, overly large high school recruit trimming his list from 29 to 17. Can't wait until they release the top 13!