What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?

[MU82]

^^^^ Heisy on April 30, 2016, when AAPL was at $93.74

Today, AAPL sits at $148.96, up 59% from April 30, 2016.

Thanks, Heisy. What other stocks do you hate?

Smuggles is very sensitive about this and probably will respond by naming a couple of his good calls. Poor baby.

[MU82]

And I'd point out that it's at yet ANOTHER all-time high today, but that would be piling on.

[Golden Avalanche]

And I'd point out that it's at yet ANOTHER all-time high today, but that would be piling on.

Fake news.

[MU82]

Fake news.

And yes ... more of the same news today!

Can you imagine how AAPL's price will soar if the so-called president actually is able to push through the repatriation policy he wants to?

[MU82]

On the move again!

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3267013-apple-plus-1_4-percent-merrill-goldman-boost-price-targets

[tower912]

My son was watching Manchester City vs Leicester city this morning.    LC had a penalty kick and the shooter's plant foot slipped and he actually kicked the ball off of his plant foot and into the goal.   It got waved off due to the soccer rule that does not allow for double touches on penalty kicks.    My son yells "Worst mistake ever."    I replied, "No, selling Apple at $90 was the worst mistake ever."   He had no idea.   

[MU82]

My son was watching Manchester City vs Leicester city this morning.    LC had a penalty kick and the shooter's plant foot slipped and he actually kicked the ball off of his plant foot and into the goal.   It got waved off due to the soccer rule that does not allow for double touches on penalty kicks.    My son yells "Worst mistake ever."    I replied, "No, selling Apple at $90 was the worst mistake ever."   He had no idea.

Great story. Made me chuckle out loud!

[Jay Bee]

Crap. AAPL somehow up to $157.

[MU82]

Crap. AAPL somehow up to $157.

Yep. ANOTHER totally kick-arse earnings report ... and ANOTHER all-time high.

The only thing "wrong with Apple stock" is that I don't own more of it!

It might only be one more positive earnings report away from doubling since Smuggles said not to touch it at 90!

[mu03eng]

Self charging I-phone dubbed the I-phone 10.

If that rumor is true, the stock might be currently undervalued.

Are you talking about inductive charging? If so I've had that on my Galaxy S7 for over a year. Not sure how that changes the game for the iPhone.

[forgetful]

Are you talking about inductive charging? If so I've had that on my Galaxy S7 for over a year. Not sure how that changes the game for the iPhone.

Not exactly the same, but similar.  The technology that is rumored to be afoot would not require you to ever place you phone on anything or anywhere.  It would simply charge itself almost anywhere you can go. 

It has two layers of technology.  1.  Recoup lost battery by using wifi and other local signal to charge itself.  2.  Long-range inductive charging so that devices in a building could inductively charge any phone over large distances, room-building scale distances.

I'm not sure I would call it a game changer though, as most phone providers will be moving to such technology in the next 5-years.

[SoCalEagle]

What am I gonna do with all this dead money???

[MU82]

What am I gonna do with all this dead money???

Well, you could invest it in DIS, which Smuggles also said was doomed back when it was trading around 90. (Full disclosure: I also have concerns about DIS, and I didn't buy it at 90, either.)

[MU82]

Yawn!

ANOTHER all-time high!

But if any of us were really smart back when Smuggles told us not to buy AAPL at 90, we would have instead invested in LMT, NOC, GD, RTN, BA - any and all companies that make bombs and the means to use them. We loves our bombs more than ever!

[JWags85]

Yawn!

ANOTHER all-time high!

But if any of us were really smart back when Smuggles told us not to buy AAPL at 90, we would have instead invested in LMT, NOC, GD, RTN, BA - any and all companies that make bombs and the means to use them. We loves our bombs more than ever!

For what its worth, not that it makes him any less incorrect, but AAPL is being used to artificially prop up the market for the last month or so.  Negative growth in AAPL, earnings and revenue are down over the last 24ish months.  But yet its being used with the VIX to grind the market higher, both SPY and QQQ.  Meanwhile, many stocks are below their moving averages and are actually down on the year despite the market continuing to push higher.  Indicies moving higher but rising tide isn't raising all boats.  Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.

Again, its just noise for those in here who love to crow about buying and holding indefinitely, but I personally don't think its a great time to load any portfolios.

[MU82]

For what its worth, not that it makes him any less incorrect, but AAPL is being used to artificially prop up the market for the last month or so.  Negative growth in AAPL, earnings and revenue are down over the last 24ish months.  But yet its being used with the VIX to grind the market higher, both SPY and QQQ.  Meanwhile, many stocks are below their moving averages and are actually down on the year despite the market continuing to push higher.  Indicies moving higher but rising tide isn't raising all boats.  Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.

Again, its just noise for those in here who love to crow about buying and holding indefinitely, but I personally don't think its a great time to load any portfolios.

I don't know who specifically is "using" AAPL or any other company to prop up the market. There is no Mr. Vix.

But I would agree that now is not the optimal time to buy most stocks, here in Year 9 of the bull. Of course, folks were saying the same a year ago, 2 years ago and 3 years ago. Heck, I remember back in 2012 reading many accounts of the 3-year-old bull run nearing its end! Glad I didn't bail then. (And in fact was doing the opposite: buying.)

The gentle needling of Smuggles is because, well, the man is never wrong about anything. Except the many things he is wrong about. Including AAPL's price prospects back when he started this thread.

Finally, I am mostly a buy-and-hold guy. I have neither the stomach for trading in and out of the market nor the aptitude for it. Those who bought AAPL 20 years ago and held it through its many valleys are pretty darn happy today, and the same can be said of hundreds upon hundreds upon hundreds of high-quality companies. I tip my hat to those who really can time the market accurately, but that's not me.

[Dish]

I noticed SBUX is hovering around its 52 week low. Anyone have thoughts on it?

[MU82]

I noticed SBUX is hovering around its 52 week low. Anyone have thoughts on it?

I own some, and if it pulls back some more, I'll probably buy more. I like owning iconic brands, a practice that has served me well as an investor.

Disclosures: I am just another investor, a buy-and-holdish kind of guy. I am not an investment pro. Unlike a certain smug gentleman who frequents this site, I do not pretend to have all the answers. Also, I do not reimburse others' losses ... but I happily share in others' gains!

[Jay Bee]

Considering ARLP. Any Scoop thoughts? Opened today at $19.00. Huge div yield.

[MU82]

Considering ARLP. Any Scoop thoughts? Opened today at $19.00. Huge div yield.

I don't do MLPs. I try to keep it simple, and there is nothing simple about MLPs, which are very complex energy companies. I also don't like to reach for yield.

If you buy, go in with your eyes wide open. The yield is high for a reason - the risk is high, too! There also are special tax forms that must be filed.

Here's a recent article on the company that might give you pause: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4102806-11-percent-yielder-may-trouble

I wish you good fortune, whatever you decide.

[Tortuga94]

Considering ARLP. Any Scoop thoughts? Opened today at $19.00. Huge div yield.

Coal??...Yikes, not sure that is a commodity I would be investing in.

As MU82 mentioned, MLPs are pretty complex and can screw up your tax returns. You usually have to wait a while until the companies generate the K-1 tax form. It will probably come right around tax day, sometimes even after and you may need to have your return amended.

The advantages are of course, the high yield and that the distributions are generally not taxed, they are seen as a return of capital, so your basis in the MLP gets reduced but you will pay the tax when the MLP is sold.

[MU82]

Coal??...Yikes, not sure that is a commodity I would be investing in.

As MU82 mentioned, MLPs are pretty complex and can screw up your tax returns. You usually have to wait a while until the companies generate the K-1 tax form. It will probably come right around tax day, sometimes even after and you may need to have your return amended.

The advantages are of course, the high yield and that the distributions are generally not taxed, they are seen as a return of capital, so your basis in the MLP gets reduced but you will pay the tax when the MLP is sold.

You are right about both the late-arriving K-1 tax forms and the tax benefits of MLPs. Because of the tax benefits, and some other issues having to do with UBTI, MLPs are best held in taxable accounts.

However, even the tax benefits might prove illusory.

Many MLPs have "general partners" that operate as regular C-Corps. Sometimes, those general partners end up merging with their own MLPs and turning the entire operation into a C-Corp. When that happens, investors who held the MLP in their taxable accounts are responsible for the taxes immediately (or at least the following April).

That most famously happened in 2014 with the Kinder group. KMP was the MLP and KMI was the general partner. There was a major corporate action, and KMP shares were converted to KMI shares for investors. But everybody who held KMP had to pay taxes because it was termed a "sale."

So imagine that you were a KMP investor with a large stake in the company, living happily thanks to all the tax advantages, planning to use profits when you retire or even to eventually turn it to your heirs ... and then - BOOM! - totally without notice, you have to sell it and incur a five-figure tax bill!

Many, many, many KMI shareholders are still bitter about what happened. They became even more bitter after CEO Richard Kinder, who had promised 10% dividend raises through 2020, instead cut the dividend 75%. It even resulted in a new term: "kindered." As in, "Damn it! I got kindered by that effen company!" (Disclosure: I never owned KMP, thank goodness, but I did own some KMI.)

In other words ... please tread carefully with MLPs. I have friends who are very happy MLP investors, and also some friends who have been burned by them. My advice to any potential MLP investor is to know EXACTLY what you're getting yourself into. If you can't explain it in 3 sentences to your spouse or kid or dog, don't even think about buying it.

[MU82]

Wouldn't you know it ... that pesky AAPL just hit ANOTHER all-time high!!!

Thank goodness I followed Smuggles' expert advice and avoided it at 90! I would have hated to have experienced that 86% gain!!

Eh ... no biggie. I probably woulda only used half the profits on hookers and blow (and wasted the rest).

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Wouldn't you know it ... that pesky AAPL just hit ANOTHER all-time high!!!

Thank goodness I followed Smuggles' expert advice and avoided it at 90! I would have hated to have experienced that 86% gain!!

Eh ... no biggie. I probably woulda only used half the profits on hookers and blow (and wasted the rest).

Oh yeah.  But Carl Icahn...oh wait, nm.

[mu03eng]

Wouldn't you know it ... that pesky AAPL just hit ANOTHER all-time high!!!

Thank goodness I followed Smuggles' expert advice and avoided it at 90! I would have hated to have experienced that 86% gain!!

Eh ... no biggie. I probably woulda only used half the profits on hookers and blow (and wasted the rest).

Fun times at Smuggles expense aside (and we should always have fun at his expense), don't you think the Apple Stock is overinflated? I think the market generally is overinflated and would assume a correction in the next 6 months, but I feel like Apple is running out ahead of even the overall market? Thoughts?

I'm starting to get that dot com bust vibe, lot of companies out there with high valuations that aren't really translating it into monitization let alone profit.