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Author Topic: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?  (Read 54520 times)

Jay Bee

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #300 on: October 30, 2017, 10:43:28 AM »
Fun times at Smuggles expense aside (and we should always have fun at his expense), don't you think the Apple Stock is overinflated? I think the market generally is overinflated and would assume a correction in the next 6 months, but I feel like Apple is running out ahead of even the overall market? Thoughts?

Agreed it's ahead of itself now. Now isn't the time to buy. The time to buy was when Heisy emphatically told us not to.

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #301 on: October 30, 2017, 07:25:59 PM »
Fun times at Smuggles expense aside (and we should always have fun at his expense), don't you think the Apple Stock is overinflated? I think the market generally is overinflated and would assume a correction in the next 6 months, but I feel like Apple is running out ahead of even the overall market? Thoughts?

I'm starting to get that dot com bust vibe, lot of companies out there with high valuations that aren't really translating it into monitization let alone profit.

I'm not buying any more right now because it's a little higher than I'd like (I have a $145 limit order in place), but AAPL is not insanely overvalued. Its forward PE is 15, not very much more that its 5-year average PE has been. If iPhone X is a big success, the stock price will probably move higher. The tricky thing with any growth company is that it can have what looks like a kick-arse quarter ... but if it didn't kick arse quite enough, price can get hit.

Here's an interesting take on AAPL's valuation on an investing site I frequent, Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4109306-realistically-make-invested-apple-today

As for the overall market ... it's hard to argue that it isn't way overvalued. However, I have been hearing that at least as far back as 2013, when we were in Year 4 of the bull market and a crash was "imminent." It will happen eventually, it always does. And there will be people who have been predicting it monthly for 3-4 years saying, "I told you so!"

I am being VERY selective with my buying and have been building up a larger cash position than normal for me. But I am still mostly invested. Disclosure: I am a very long-term investor, not a trader.
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Dr. Blackheart

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #302 on: October 30, 2017, 11:03:08 PM »
If you you all invested in STZ and MCD as I told you gamicks back in September, your best friend would be your Capital Gains Advisor.

Any you guys cutting me a check?  MCD up to 166 from 114 in September 2016. STZ up to 213 from 167.

SoCalEagle

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #303 on: October 31, 2017, 02:18:42 AM »
I'm not buying any more right now because it's a little higher than I'd like (I have a $145 limit order in place), but AAPL is not insanely overvalued. Its forward PE is 15, not very much more that its 5-year average PE has been. If iPhone X is a big success, the stock price will probably move higher. The tricky thing with any growth company is that it can have what looks like a kick-arse quarter ... but if it didn't kick arse quite enough, price can get hit.

Here's an interesting take on AAPL's valuation on an investing site I frequent, Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4109306-realistically-make-invested-apple-today

As for the overall market ... it's hard to argue that it isn't way overvalued. However, I have been hearing that at least as far back as 2013, when we were in Year 4 of the bull market and a crash was "imminent." It will happen eventually, it always does. And there will be people who have been predicting it monthly for 3-4 years saying, "I told you so!"

I am being VERY selective with my buying and have been building up a larger cash position than normal for me. But I am still mostly invested. Disclosure: I am a very long-term investor, not a trader.

I think it's right where it should be.  P/E is showing that it's a fair value right now.  The problem is that if the overall market tanks, AAPL will move down with it.  I bought it many years ago and continue to hold it now.  I don't plan on selling even if it dips. 


SoCalEagle

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #304 on: October 31, 2017, 02:33:47 AM »
Any you guys cutting me a check?  MCD up to 166 from 114 in September 2016. STZ up to 213 from 167.

Good call on MCD.  Looks like about a 45% gain.  As for STZ, don't look now but you are trailing the DOW by about about 2% since September 2016.  STZ up 27.5% versus DJI up 29.5%.  Just goes to show that many stocks are up big since September 2016. 


MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #305 on: October 31, 2017, 07:46:14 AM »
Any you guys cutting me a check?  MCD up to 166 from 114 in September 2016. STZ up to 213 from 167.

Nice call, Doc.

MCD is one of my largest holdings. When others were selling, I was buying. The "health food trend" is borderline laughable. All the McDonald's in my area have lines 10 cars long at the drivethrus, especially at breakfast time. Who knew that fat Americans (present company included) were merely long for more opportunities to buy Egg McMuffins?!?!?!

"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #306 on: October 31, 2017, 07:48:53 AM »
I think it's right where it should be.  P/E is showing that it's a fair value right now.  The problem is that if the overall market tanks, AAPL will move down with it.  I bought it many years ago and continue to hold it now.  I don't plan on selling even if it dips.

FWIW (probably not much, but ... ), here was Jim Cramer's take on AAPL last Friday:

There are 3 positives - Market expects a bad quarter which lowers the risk; People are confused whether to buy iPhone 8 or iPhone X; Cramer has been amazed with the features of the new smartphone. "I'm reiterating that you should buy Apple and own Apple, not trade Apple. The stock is cheap," said Cramer.

Yes, Cramer is a trader, and he has made some legendary horrific calls, including an infamous BUY BUY BUY on Bear Stearns about 20 seconds before the financial meltdown. So take this with a grain of salt. We're talking about Apple and I saw this today, so I figured I'd provide it.

BTW, AAPL reports earnings after close Thursday.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Herman Cain

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #307 on: October 31, 2017, 02:47:08 PM »
Wouldn't you know it ... that pesky AAPL just hit ANOTHER all-time high!!!

Thank goodness I followed Smuggles' expert advice and avoided it at 90! I would have hated to have experienced that 86% gain!!

Eh ... no biggie. I probably woulda only used half the profits on hookers and blow (and wasted the rest).
My basis in AAPL is 1.41 a share. Hoping for some tax reform soon.
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mu03eng

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #308 on: October 31, 2017, 02:52:02 PM »
My basis in AAPL is 1.41 a share. Hoping for some tax reform soon.

Tax reform or reshuffling chairs on the Titanic?

In all seriousness, if we are going to reform and rationalize the tax code I think that makes a lot of sense. However, I don't think we can get there in the current environment. As an example, I'm all for simplification of the tax code, but as soon as they started talking about changing pre-tax/post-tax exceptions for 401(k) contributions I freaked out and was all "hey don't touch my tax break". Eventually I thought it through and I'm "ok" with the change assuming its part of a true rationalization. However, there is no way politically that you can build a rationalization plan that steers a clear path where they don't except and amend the crap out of it, and as a consequence all tax payers are going to be all worked up about "their tax breaks".

Thought it was a 70-30 proposition 6 months ago, think that's flipped now.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #309 on: November 02, 2017, 11:08:46 PM »
AAPL totally kicked arse in its earnings report, which was released after market closed today. Up near 174 AH. Looks like another all-time high is imminent. A few percent more and it will be double what it was when Smuggles told us all to avoid it like the plague!
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Herman Cain

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #310 on: November 03, 2017, 08:22:51 AM »
I am looking for dividend growth stocks. Does anyone have any particular favorites? I am looking to redeploy cash from some holdings in my portfolio that were acquired. I like to hold for long term , many of my holding are 15-20 years old.
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B. McBannerson

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #311 on: November 03, 2017, 08:46:30 AM »
Tax reform or reshuffling chairs on the Titanic?

In all seriousness, if we are going to reform and rationalize the tax code I think that makes a lot of sense. However, I don't think we can get there in the current environment. As an example, I'm all for simplification of the tax code, but as soon as they started talking about changing pre-tax/post-tax exceptions for 401(k) contributions I freaked out and was all "hey don't touch my tax break". Eventually I thought it through and I'm "ok" with the change assuming its part of a true rationalization. However, there is no way politically that you can build a rationalization plan that steers a clear path where they don't except and amend the crap out of it, and as a consequence all tax payers are going to be all worked up about "their tax breaks".

Thought it was a 70-30 proposition 6 months ago, think that's flipped now.

Tax reform!!  Especially the corporate rate, is going to be big.  We have to bring that money offshore back to the US to put it to work here.  I agree it is reshuffling for individual users, though the irony that high tax states will get hit higher because you can't deduct state taxes anymore (so sorry California, Illinois, New York), but the corporate rate means $$$$ come back here, where they should be.

jesmu84

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #312 on: November 03, 2017, 09:22:04 AM »
Tax reform!!  Especially the corporate rate, is going to be big.  We have to bring that money offshore back to the US to put it to work here.  I agree it is reshuffling for individual users, though the irony that high tax states will get hit higher because you can't deduct state taxes anymore (so sorry California, Illinois, New York), but the corporate rate means $$$$ come back here, where they should be.

Sigh..

It's been shown time and time again that bringing money back, by cutting corporate tax rates, does not do much of anything. It doesn't lead to worker wage increases. It does not lead to increase in employment. It does not have any trickle down effect. Why are we still purporting this crap?

Go look at Kansas for a good example of what happens when the current GOP tax plan gets put into place

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #313 on: November 03, 2017, 09:45:58 AM »
Sigh..

It's been shown time and time again that bringing money back, by cutting corporate tax rates, does not do much of anything. It doesn't lead to worker wage increases. It does not lead to increase in employment. It does not have any trickle down effect. Why are we still purporting this crap?

Go look at Kansas for a good example of what happens when the current GOP tax plan gets put into place

Don't bother with factual facts, jesmu. The Alternative Facts Crowd doesn't care for them.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #314 on: November 03, 2017, 10:09:11 AM »
I am looking for dividend growth stocks. Does anyone have any particular favorites? I am looking to redeploy cash from some holdings in my portfolio that were acquired. I like to hold for long term , many of my holding are 15-20 years old.

PMed you.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

SoCalEagle

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #315 on: November 05, 2017, 12:56:25 PM »
Don't bother with factual facts, jesmu. The Alternative Facts Crowd doesn't care for them.

He must be right. He read it on the internet you know.

SoCalEagle

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #316 on: November 05, 2017, 01:02:33 PM »
PMed you.

I'm no stock picking guru, but if you are looking for divs, take a look at BP. I bought in when it was yielding 7+ percent, but you can still get nearly 6 percent. It's a bit of a risk since it is still on a rebound, but to me seems like a good risk.

B. McBannerson

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #317 on: November 05, 2017, 03:06:55 PM »
Sigh..

It's been shown time and time again that bringing money back, by cutting corporate tax rates, does not do much of anything. It doesn't lead to worker wage increases. It does not lead to increase in employment. It does not have any trickle down effect. Why are we still purporting this crap?

Go look at Kansas for a good example of what happens when the current GOP tax plan gets put into place

It has?  Economists are split, but based on your ideology you think it's been shown to not have an effect.  Economists also differ on minimum wages and many other things. Sorry, but economics is not black and white, neither is the law. There are differing views.  A number of Nobel prize winning economists think we should lower corporate tax rates to bring in trillions held offshore back to the USA.  A number of Nobel prize winning economists disagree.  That doesn't make your opinion a fact, as you stated. 

jesmu84

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #318 on: November 05, 2017, 03:18:40 PM »
It has?  Economists are split, but based on your ideology you think it's been shown to not have an effect.  Economists also differ on minimum wages and many other things. Sorry, but economics is not black and white, neither is the law. There are differing views.  A number of Nobel prize winning economists think we should lower corporate tax rates to bring in trillions held offshore back to the USA.  A number of Nobel prize winning economists disagree.  That doesn't make your opinion a fact, as you stated.

Okay. I'll agree that economists are split. But when we've lowered corporate rates or given holidays in the past, has it increased bottom 50% wages? Or decreased unemployment? Or trickled down? Economic theory and real life results can be different

Also, Kansas.

B. McBannerson

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #319 on: November 05, 2017, 03:33:24 PM »
Okay. I'll agree that economists are split. But when we've lowered corporate rates or given holidays in the past, has it increased bottom 50% wages? Or decreased unemployment? Or trickled down? Economic theory and real life results can be different

Also, Kansas.

Kansas has nothing to do with corporate tax rates on the global side, why do you continue to use that example?  Economics is difficult, many moving parts, which is why so many economists disagree with one another.  Much like the law, you can have half the Supreme Court say it means X and the other half say it means Y.   But thank you for admitting that what you said was an opinion, and not factual.

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #320 on: November 05, 2017, 06:10:03 PM »
It has?  Economists are split, but based on your ideology you think it's been shown to not have an effect.  Economists also differ on minimum wages and many other things. Sorry, but economics is not black and white, neither is the law. There are differing views.  A number of Nobel prize winning economists think we should lower corporate tax rates to bring in trillions held offshore back to the USA.  A number of Nobel prize winning economists disagree.  That doesn't make your opinion a fact, as you stated.

Nice to know that you agree with everything Obama - a Nobel prize winner - ever said or did. I wouldn't have expected that from somebody like you!
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

wadesworld

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #321 on: November 28, 2017, 10:32:37 AM »
Ron Wayne was 1 of the 3 Apple founders with Jobs and Wozniak. In 1976 he sold his 10% share in Apple for $800. As of November 26 Apple has a market capitalization of $898 billion. Wayne’s 10% stake would be worth $90 billion.

Be like Ron Wayne. Get out while there’s still value to your stock.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2017, 05:36:49 PM by wadesworld »

wadesworld

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #322 on: November 28, 2017, 10:43:17 AM »
Wayne also sold the original Apple company agreement that was signed in 1976 by Jobs, Wozniak, and himself for $500.  In 2011 that was auctioned off at $1.6 million.  Oops?

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #323 on: November 28, 2017, 12:08:54 PM »
I know what you're implying here, wades, but the optimist would say that Mr. Wayne got out with a cool $1,300.

I just plugged that into an inflation calculator, and it says $1,300 in 1976 would be worth $5,655.16 today.

Not quite a bazillion bucks, but enough for a 2010 Hyundai Santa Fe with 75,000 miles! I'm sure Smuggles would have endorsed that.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

mu03eng

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #324 on: November 28, 2017, 01:22:51 PM »
I know what you're implying here, wades, but the optimist would say that Mr. Wayne got out with a cool $1,300.

I just plugged that into an inflation calculator, and it says $1,300 in 1976 would be worth $5,655.16 today.

Not quite a bazillion bucks, but enough for a 2010 Hyundai Santa Fe with 75,000 miles! I'm sure Smuggles would have endorsed that.

There are optimists who think the glass is half full
There are pessimists who think the glass is half full
There are realists who think there is just the right amount for alcohol....think how much good whiskey could be bought for the $1300 in 1976!
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