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Author Topic: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?  (Read 54307 times)

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #25 on: April 30, 2016, 12:11:54 PM »
The reason that the market reacted so strongly to AAPL over the last week is because the market, as a whole, are emotional investors with a weak grasp on technicals.

If you take anything that Icahn says seriously, then I'm disappointed in your critical thinking ability. He uses his wealth as a platform to move equities in a direction that's profitable for himself, nothing more.

The reason the stock reacted so crappy in the last week was the disastrous quarterly report released this week.


Regarding Icahn


Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #26 on: April 30, 2016, 12:17:55 PM »
It's obviously their stock has been in a death spiral since Jobs left. Your method of ignoring dividends seems reasonable.


But... care to explain why the stock outperformed the S&P 500, S&P Tech Index, and the Dow Jones US Tech Supersector Index from FYE13 to FYE 15? The starting point is a year after Jobs... the end point is the most recently completed fiscal year... how in the world did crappy AAPL do so well?



C'mon Jaybee, a BS year old chart is your best argument???

Serious question, how much money do you have to lose before you re-think your position?

Here the same chart updated through yesterday.

Total return (incl dividends) since 9.21.2012 (iphone5 release)

Apple Stock         = 0.79%
S&P 500              = 52.60%
Info Tech Sector = 46.04%

« Last Edit: April 30, 2016, 03:45:40 PM by Heisenberg »

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #27 on: April 30, 2016, 02:24:52 PM »
C'mon Jaybee, a BS year old chart is your best argument???

Serious question, who much money do you have to lose before you re-think your position?

Here the same chart updated through yesterday.

Total return (incl dividends) since 9.21.2012 (iphone5 release)

Apple Stock         = 0.79%
S&P 500              = 52.60%
Info Tech Sector = 46.04%

Factor in the dividends please

Apple pays a healthy one, that's real money.  They're also going to buyback a crap ton of their stock with the money they have on hand, which is going to drive the stock up.  As an Apple stock holder, I'm pleased, but I've been in the stock for a long time.

http://www.dividend.com/news/2016/04/29/apple-increases-dividend-10-raises-stock-buyback-by-35-billion/

GGGG

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #28 on: April 30, 2016, 02:33:14 PM »
Factor in the dividends please

I didn't have my math right.  Ellenson is correct.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2016, 02:37:55 PM by The Sultan of Sunshine »

Ellenson Family Reunion

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #29 on: April 30, 2016, 02:35:03 PM »
Factor in the dividends please

Apple pays a healthy one, that's real money.  They're also going to buyback a crap ton of their stock with the money they have on hand, which is going to drive the stock up.  As an Apple stock holder, I'm pleased, but I've been in the stock for a long time.

http://www.dividend.com/news/2016/04/29/apple-increases-dividend-10-raises-stock-buyback-by-35-billion/

(incl dividends) =  including dividends. They are already factored into the performance shown for that time period. Price performance alone it is down 5% cumulative, not up the 0.79% that Heisenberg references. Argue with the period selected for analysis if you want, but those #'s are accurate.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #30 on: April 30, 2016, 02:36:56 PM »
(incl dividends) =  including dividends. They are already factored into the performance shown for that time period. Price performance alone it is down 5% cumulative, not up the 0.79% that Heisenberg references. Argue with the period selected for analysis if you want, but those #'s are accurate.

Thank you

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #31 on: April 30, 2016, 02:56:45 PM »
First off, the iPhone 5 was announced on 9/12/2012.  I would have used that date, as that starts the run up to the stock...the release date the upside is already built in. 

The annualized return, including dividends, of AAPL stock purchased on 9/12/2012 is 2.19% (assumes DRIP).  1.44% without DRIP.


Your total gain would have been 5.33%




Jay Bee

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #32 on: April 30, 2016, 03:14:57 PM »
C'mon Jaybee, a BS year old chart is your best argument???

Serious question, who much money do you have to lose before you re-think your position?
[/qoute]

No, I could use a a TWO-WEEK OLD chart...

who (sic) much money do I have to lose before I re-think (sic) my position? Who said I'm in AAPL?

(I have no positions in AAPL.)

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #33 on: April 30, 2016, 03:40:34 PM »
First off, the iPhone 5 was announced on 9/12/2012.  I would have used that date, as that starts the run up to the stock...the release date the upside is already built in. 

The annualized return, including dividends, of AAPL stock purchased on 9/12/2012 is 2.19% (assumes DRIP).  1.44% without DRIP.


Your total gain would have been 5.33%
Below is the same chart as above starting on September 12, 2012 (the announcement date versus the release date of Sept 21)

Total Return (Including Dividends) September 12, 2012 to April 29, 2016

Apple Stock = 5.33%
S&P 500 = 55.16%
S&P 500 Tech Index = 49.23%


Jay Bee

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #34 on: April 30, 2016, 04:10:15 PM »
Below is the same chart as above starting on September 12, 2012 (the announcement date versus the release date of Sept 21)

Total Return (Including Dividends) September 12, 2012 to April 29, 2016

Apple Stock = 5.33%
S&P 500 = 55.16%
S&P 500 Tech Index = 49.23%
'

Go to April 15, 2016 and you get 23.44%, a''inal?

Ellenson Family Reunion

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #35 on: April 30, 2016, 04:38:12 PM »
'

Go to April 15, 2016 and you get 23.44%, a''inal?

vs. what performance for the overall market & sector? Heisenberg is correct to show AAPL performance relative to broader market alternatives, it is highly relevant information.

Jay Bee

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #36 on: April 30, 2016, 04:39:48 PM »
vs. what performance for the overall market & sector? Heisenberg is correct to show AAPL performance relative to broader market alternatives, it is highly relevant information.

Substantially the same as above.. it was 2 weeks. AAPL happened to have dropped almost 20% in that time period.

Ellenson Family Reunion

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #37 on: April 30, 2016, 04:43:57 PM »
Substantially the same as above.. it was 2 weeks. AAPL happened to have dropped almost 20% in that time period.

Okay, so it still lagged fairly significantly.

GGGG

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #38 on: April 30, 2016, 04:57:38 PM »
Heisey's larger point is that it really hasn't done anything all that innovative for quite a while.  And I think that is a pretty accurate assessment.  More of a value / income stock than a growth one. 

Jay Bee

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #39 on: April 30, 2016, 05:13:24 PM »
Okay, so it still lagged fairly significantly.

Heisenb's claim was that it's done nothing (actually gone down) because of a series of bad events since Jobs left.

The reality is it's been up over 20% until 2 weeks ago, and still up even after the (relatively) poor earnings release.

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #40 on: April 30, 2016, 05:30:22 PM »
AAPL is one of my smaller holdings. It has become more of an income play than a growth play, which is fine because I primarily invest in dividend growth companies.

I'm not planning to sell as I'm largely a buy-and-hold investor and it's still an outstanding, profitable company with a growing dividend.

I'm not buying any more right now, but maybe I should ... I think DIS is up about 15% since Heisy's "death of Disney" post!
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #41 on: April 30, 2016, 05:52:43 PM »
Heisenb's claim was that it's done nothing (actually gone down) because of a series of bad events since Jobs left.

The reality is it's been up over 20% until 2 weeks ago, and still up even after the (relatively) poor earnings release.

What series of bad events?  I said they have not created a new product in the post Jobs era. The watch is a bust, Apple Music is a bust.

And the last two weeks are not random, it is a response to a horrific quarterly report and Icahn selling (yes, Icahn matters).

If 82 is right it is now an income stock, it is too expensive.  It still has a valuation of a growth company.

Jay Bee

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #42 on: April 30, 2016, 06:29:14 PM »
If 82 is right it is now an income stock, it is too expensive. It still has a valuation of a growth company.

AAPL's current EV/EBITDA says this to you?

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #43 on: April 30, 2016, 06:50:48 PM »
AAPL's current EV/EBITDA says this to you?

Depends on what you think revenues are going to do?  Are they going to keep falling (yes falling) like they have ove rhet last year?  If so, it's very expensive.  Are they going to stabilize?  If so, why (because you need them too?)

How about China? their biggest growth market is a big problem for them.

Why Apple's China problem is likely to get much, much worse
Friday, 29 Apr 2016 | 9:04 AM ET

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/29/why-apples-china-problem-is-likely-to-get-much-much-worse.html

Apple is coming off a 26 percent sales decline in Greater China, the steepest drop among its five regions.
More worrisome: The greatest risks lie ahead.
That's the view of a growing chorus of experts and prognosticators concerned about the unpredictability of the Chinese government.



---------------

I'll ask again, how much money do you have to lose before you stop getting angry, rationalizing and re-assess?


Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #44 on: April 30, 2016, 07:02:20 PM »
AAPL is one of my smaller holdings. It has become more of an income play than a growth play, which is fine because I primarily invest in dividend growth companies.

I'm not planning to sell as I'm largely a buy-and-hold investor and it's still an outstanding, profitable company with a growing dividend.

I'm not buying any more right now, but maybe I should ... I think DIS is up about 15% since Heisy's "death of Disney" post!

And what post would that be? 

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #45 on: April 30, 2016, 07:04:23 PM »
(incl dividends) =  including dividends. They are already factored into the performance shown for that time period. Price performance alone it is down 5% cumulative, not up the 0.79% that Heisenberg references. Argue with the period selected for analysis if you want, but those #'s are accurate.

Actually, they aren't, at least not as they relate to Apple.

Jay Bee

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #46 on: April 30, 2016, 07:06:09 PM »
Depends on what you think revenues are going to do?  Are they going to keep falling (yes falling) like they have ove rhet last year?  If so, it's very expensive.  Are they going to stabilize?  If so, why (because you need them too?)
----
I'll ask again, how much money do you have to lose before you stop getting angry, rationalizing and re-assess?

No, depends on what YOU think the sales and profits are going to do, because you must have a very unique view if you believe they are trading like a growth company today. The EV/EBITDA certainly wouldn't say so. I'm asking what your measurement to come to the conclusion that "It still has a valuation of a growth company."

I haven't lost a dime on AAPL. Not in, as I previously stated. I think our views on AAPL overall are probably very similar -- the layout of your argument and some of the claims are my issue (e.g., "it still has a valuation of a growth company").

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #47 on: April 30, 2016, 07:07:49 PM »
Heisey's larger point is that it really hasn't done anything all that innovative for quite a while.  And I think that is a pretty accurate assessment.  More of a value / income stock than a growth one.

This I would agree with, but a company with that much capital is going to do big things again. 

If you got in 2010, you did 171%.   Along the way, the stock split, the dividends rolled and the value per share exploded.  Timing is everything.  Yes, it's taken a hit the last two weeks, I know I'm not bailing.  Tons of money, buying back stocks, increasing the dividend 10%, they will invest in new technologies and\or buy out successful companies if need be.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #48 on: April 30, 2016, 07:14:38 PM »
This I would agree with, but a company with that much capital is going to do big things again. 

If you got in 2010, you did 171%.   Along the way, the stock split, the dividends rolled and the value per share exploded.  Timing is everything.  Yes, it's taken a hit the last two weeks, I know I'm not bailing.  Tons of money, buying back stocks, increasing the dividend 10%, they will invest in new technologies and\or buy out successful companies if need be.

Ancient history as that all stop in 2012.  They have done nothing since.  No new products (save the bust of the watch and music) and only wishful thinking that they have something coming.

Need to show Tim Cook the door.  He is the male version of Marissa Meyer (Yahoo CEO).

Jay Bee

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #49 on: April 30, 2016, 07:18:32 PM »
Ancient history as that all stop in 2012.  They have done nothing since.  No new products (save the bust of the watch and music) and only wishful thinking that they have something coming.

Need to show Tim Cook the door.  He is the male version of Marissa Meyer (Yahoo CEO).

Mayer vs. Meyer

 

anything