Does our NCAA tourney start Wednesday?

[1SE]

I know this has been done to death, but with only four reg season games left is this worth asking again - if we win out the reg season are we in?  Are we bubbly even in we don't win a BE tourney game?  If we win out and grab at least one at MSG are we pretty safely in?  What's our RPI in those scenarios?  I just think a 21-11 or 22-11 team with wins over Prov x2 , UW, Butler x2 and a #1 'Nova team (I mean 6 top 50 wins) would be hard not to pass the eyeball test (stupid DePaul loss... - but still could be a top-200 loss) .  I wouldn't expect it to happen, but stranger runs have happened.

[1SE]

Although I guess in some ways we could get two bites at the apple.  Win out the regular season and we are (close?) to in.  Win it all in NY and we're in.  I'd say both are about similarly likely?

[1SE]

Or to put in ANOTHER way - can we afford any more regular season losses and still get to the tourney short of winning the BET?  Does 3-1 plus a BET finals get us there? (I suppose maybe if one of the 3 is 'Nova)...

[Dr. Blackheart]

No

[bilsu]

A win is a win. However, we only beat DePaul by 13 with them playing without Garrett and Rycksbosch. We should not think we are playing well because of that win.

[wadesworld]

Starting a new thread about our Tourney hopes after every single win always seems to go well here.  We have polls asking when our next loss will be and listing up to like 6 games down the line, polls asking what our record will be in the next set of X amount of BE games, threads about what we need to do to get into the Tourney after every game we win, etc.  And what inevitably happens every time?  We lose our next game, we go 1-X in the next X games in the BE, we lose to a bad team in our next game and everyone wants Wojo gone, etc.

Let's enjoy the fact that we have a young and exciting team and understand that they're too inconsistent to win 4 straight games against quality teams, so wondering what that would do for our resume doesn't really do a whole lot.

[MU82]

Or to put in ANOTHER way - can we afford any more regular season losses and still get to the tourney short of winning the BET?  Does 3-1 plus a BET finals get us there? (I suppose maybe if one of the 3 is 'Nova)...

I am enjoying the conversation you are having with yourself.

I do that often, although sometimes I bring my dog into the conversation because I respect her viewpoint.

[tower912]

Marquette isn't winning it's next 4 games.   Probably not winning 3.   At this point, breaking even is the goal.   Marquette's only chance of making the NCAA tourney is to get hot at MSG.   Accept it.  Embrace it.   

[brewcity77]

If we win out in the regular season are we in? No. If we win out, our most likely Big East path would be the 4/5 game against Providence, then Villanova, then Xavier in the final. So if we lose to Providence...

21-11 (10-8)
RPI: 82
SOS: 90
Loss to Providence

No team with a sub-70 RPI has made the tournament as an at-large since the 90's. We sure as hell wouldn't be sniffing it with an 82. What if we beat Providence?

22-11 (10-8)
RPI: 70
SOS: 76
Beat Providence, lose to Villanova in the semifinals.

That gives us a slim, slim chance. The RPI would be very low for an at-large, but in an age of weak bubble teams getting in, we'd have a chance. The real strength of our resume would be recency, with a 6-1 record in our last 7, 7-3 in our last 10, and 11-4 in our last 15. Those losses would all be to teams that are top-50 Pomeroy teams with Creighton as the only loss that might not be a tourney team. Now if we beat Villanova and lose to Xavier?

23-11 (10-8)
RPI: 62
SOS: 63
Beat Providence, beat Villanova, lose to Xavier in finals

On paper, it's a much better resume. Personally, I've thought 23 wins was our benchmark for a bid all season long. The only possible problem here is that the Selection Committee often seems to undervalue results in the conference tourneys when it comes to getting a bid. Sure, we'd knock 'Nova down a seed line, but would we move into the field? If we aren't in at 22-11, I'm not sure 23-11 would be viewed any better. If they started putting the field together Saturday, this would make us a lock, but because they'd already have their baseline bracket set by Thursday or Friday, I'd still be nervous come Selection Sunday.

So what about the scenarios with a loss in regular season? I'll assume a loss to Creighton. Why? Because it would actually be less damaging than a loss to Villanova, and frankly, I have severe doubts about our ability to go into Omaha and come away with a win. Anyway...if we lose to Creighton, that likely drops us to the 3/6 game against Seton Hall, followed by Xavier and Villanova. Personally, I'd rather play the Wednesday games if it gave us a chance to avoid Seton Hall. Not sure anyone is a worse matchup for us in the entire league. But I digress...on to scenarios. 3-1 with a loss to Creighton and losing to Seton Hall on Thursday?

20-12 (9-9)
RPI: 95
SOS: 92
Loss to Seton Hall

Not only are we out of the NCAAs with that scenario, but we probably miss the NIT as well. After all the regular season champs get slotted, there probably won't be enough bids to get to the mid-90s, and unlike the NCAAs, the NIT seems to be even more strict in following the RPI. We missed the NIT in 2014 with a better (92) RPI than this. Next scenario, go 3-1, somehow beat SHU, then lose to Xavier?

21-12 (9-9)
RPI: 84
SOS: 80
Beat Seton Hall, Lose to Xavier

The good news, we probably get a NIT berth, but NCAAs? No chance. So how about if we get to the Final?

22-12 (9-9)
RPI: 70
SOS: 67
Beat Seton Hall, Beat Xavier, Lose to Villanova

This puts us squarely in bubble territory, but we probably would be left out. Not only because of the low RPI, but because conference tourney games seem to get less merit than regular season games when it comes to bubble teams.

So what does all this mean? Pretty much that our only hope of getting an at-large bid is winning out the regular season and at least making the semifinals of the Big East Tournament, and for the NIT we probably need to win 4 more total games.

The reality is our NCAA Tourney started on November 13. There were four defining moments that cost us a tourney bid this season:

November 13: Belmont

We blew an 80-79 lead with under 30 seconds to play. I know, it's a narrow lead, but that was a huge moment. You need to finish that at home.

January 20: DePaul

Duane Wilson should have been the hero when he put us up 56-54 with 8 seconds to play. Instead, Billy Garrett drives the floor, gets a layup and a phantom and-one call to beat us with 1 second left. Huge, huge moment.

February 6: at Xavier

We led most of the way before falling behind at the under-8. Still, the team fought back and Cheatham's free throws made it a 1-point game with 2:15 to play. We couldn't finish off the comeback as XU finished the game with a 12-5 run.

February 13: Creighton

We had a 62-60 lead thanks to Duane Wilson, but James Milliken's three with 1:04 to play followed by a poor final minute led to another home loss.

You could just as easily argue the moments against IUPUI, LSU, ASU, Wisconsin, and Providence (twice) were just as important positives as these four moments were negatives, and you'd be right, but had just one or two of those gone the other way, we'd be talking about the tournament. Hell, if all four of those had gone the other way, we could finish 2-2 and lose our first Big East Tourney game and still likely get in. But it is what it is. We had a very slim margin for error this season, and the errors in those four finishes are the difference between a tourney bid and a trip to the couch to watch the NCAAs on TV.

[brewcity77]

Marquette isn't winning it's next 4 games.   Probably not winning 3.   At this point, breaking even is the goal.   Marquette's only chance of making the NCAA tourney is to get hot at MSG.   Accept it.  Embrace it.

This is the reality. Probably our best chance is for us to get to MSG and hope we can slide through with one big upset. Say we play up to the 7-seed and get DePaul in the first game. Beat them, then upset Xavier and hope that Butler as the 6 can knock off Seton Hall. If we beat Butler and end up with anyone but Villanova in the BET final, we'd have a shot.

[WarriorPride68]

Starting a new thread about our Tourney hopes after every single win always seems to go well here.

Right. If we can beat DePaul without Billy Garrett, we can beat anybody

[4everwarriors]

Respect da process, hey?

[MU82]

If we win out in the regular season are we in? No. If we win out, our most likely Big East path would be the 4/5 game against Providence, then Villanova, then Xavier in the final. So if we lose to Providence...

21-11 (10-8)
RPI: 82
SOS: 90
Loss to Providence

No team with a sub-70 RPI has made the tournament as an at-large since the 90's. We sure as hell wouldn't be sniffing it with an 82. What if we beat Providence?

22-11 (10-8)
RPI: 70
SOS: 76
Beat Providence, lose to Villanova in the semifinals.

That gives us a slim, slim chance. The RPI would be very low for an at-large, but in an age of weak bubble teams getting in, we'd have a chance. The real strength of our resume would be recency, with a 6-1 record in our last 7, 7-3 in our last 10, and 11-4 in our last 15. Those losses would all be to teams that are top-50 Pomeroy teams with Creighton as the only loss that might not be a tourney team. Now if we beat Villanova and lose to Xavier?

23-11 (10-8)
RPI: 62
SOS: 63
Beat Providence, beat Villanova, lose to Xavier in finals

On paper, it's a much better resume. Personally, I've thought 23 wins was our benchmark for a bid all season long. The only possible problem here is that the Selection Committee often seems to undervalue results in the conference tourneys when it comes to getting a bid. Sure, we'd knock 'Nova down a seed line, but would we move into the field? If we aren't in at 22-11, I'm not sure 23-11 would be viewed any better. If they started putting the field together Saturday, this would make us a lock, but because they'd already have their baseline bracket set by Thursday or Friday, I'd still be nervous come Selection Sunday.

So what about the scenarios with a loss in regular season? I'll assume a loss to Creighton. Why? Because it would actually be less damaging than a loss to Villanova, and frankly, I have severe doubts about our ability to go into Omaha and come away with a win. Anyway...if we lose to Creighton, that likely drops us to the 3/6 game against Seton Hall, followed by Xavier and Villanova. Personally, I'd rather play the Wednesday games if it gave us a chance to avoid Seton Hall. Not sure anyone is a worse matchup for us in the entire league. But I digress...on to scenarios. 3-1 with a loss to Creighton and losing to Seton Hall on Thursday?

20-12 (9-9)
RPI: 95
SOS: 92
Loss to Seton Hall

Not only are we out of the NCAAs with that scenario, but we probably miss the NIT as well. After all the regular season champs get slotted, there probably won't be enough bids to get to the mid-90s, and unlike the NCAAs, the NIT seems to be even more strict in following the RPI. We missed the NIT in 2014 with a better (92) RPI than this. Next scenario, go 3-1, somehow beat SHU, then lose to Xavier?

21-12 (9-9)
RPI: 84
SOS: 80
Beat Seton Hall, Lose to Xavier

The good news, we probably get a NIT berth, but NCAAs? No chance. So how about if we get to the Final?

22-12 (9-9)
RPI: 70
SOS: 67
Beat Seton Hall, Beat Xavier, Lose to Villanova

This puts us squarely in bubble territory, but we probably would be left out. Not only because of the low RPI, but because conference tourney games seem to get less merit than regular season games when it comes to bubble teams.

So what does all this mean? Pretty much that our only hope of getting an at-large bid is winning out the regular season and at least making the semifinals of the Big East Tournament, and for the NIT we probably need to win 4 more total games.

The reality is our NCAA Tourney started on November 13. There were four defining moments that cost us a tourney bid this season:

November 13: Belmont

We blew an 80-79 lead with under 30 seconds to play. I know, it's a narrow lead, but that was a huge moment. You need to finish that at home.

January 20: DePaul

Duane Wilson should have been the hero when he put us up 56-54 with 8 seconds to play. Instead, Billy Garrett drives the floor, gets a layup and a phantom and-one call to beat us with 1 second left. Huge, huge moment.

February 6: at Xavier

We led most of the way before falling behind at the under-8. Still, the team fought back and Cheatham's free throws made it a 1-point game with 2:15 to play. We couldn't finish off the comeback as XU finished the game with a 12-5 run.

February 13: Creighton

We had a 62-60 lead thanks to Duane Wilson, but James Milliken's three with 1:04 to play followed by a poor final minute led to another home loss.

You could just as easily argue the moments against IUPUI, LSU, ASU, Wisconsin, and Providence (twice) were just as important positives as these four moments were negatives, and you'd be right, but had just one or two of those gone the other way, we'd be talking about the tournament. Hell, if all four of those had gone the other way, we could finish 2-2 and lose our first Big East Tourney game and still likely get in. But it is what it is. We had a very slim margin for error this season, and the errors in those four finishes are the difference between a tourney bid and a trip to the couch to watch the NCAAs on TV.

Hokey smokes, brew, this is thorough! Thanks.

I just want us to finish strong for the sake of finishing strong. Otherwise, where the chips fall is so "out there" that it does me no good to think about it.

If we win two this week, THEN I'll start to contemplate the possibilities.

[mu03eng]

We are playing for an NIT berth, full stop. The only way we get an NCAA berth at this point is if we don't lose until at least the BET finals(so 5-0 in regular season and 2-1 in BET).

Like was said on the podcast, I think we are playing for the 6th seed right now. Avoid having to play a crappy game(we'd most likely win) that did nothing but tire the team out, plus the 6th seed will avoid Villanova until the finals. If we can get 6th then we'd face Seton Hall or Creighton most likely...if we could win that then we'd be looking at Xavier who I feel most confident against weirdly of the top 4 teams....then it would likely be Nova......

We're playing for an NIT berth.

[1SE]

If we win out in the regular season are we in? No. If we win out, our most likely Big East path would be the 4/5 game against Providence, then Villanova, then Xavier in the final. So if we lose to Providence...

21-11 (10-8)
RPI: 82
SOS: 90
Loss to Providence

No team with a sub-70 RPI has made the tournament as an at-large since the 90's. We sure as hell wouldn't be sniffing it with an 82. What if we beat Providence?

22-11 (10-8)
RPI: 70
SOS: 76
Beat Providence, lose to Villanova in the semifinals.

That gives us a slim, slim chance. The RPI would be very low for an at-large, but in an age of weak bubble teams getting in, we'd have a chance. The real strength of our resume would be recency, with a 6-1 record in our last 7, 7-3 in our last 10, and 11-4 in our last 15. Those losses would all be to teams that are top-50 Pomeroy teams with Creighton as the only loss that might not be a tourney team. Now if we beat Villanova and lose to Xavier?

23-11 (10-8)
RPI: 62
SOS: 63
Beat Providence, beat Villanova, lose to Xavier in finals

On paper, it's a much better resume. Personally, I've thought 23 wins was our benchmark for a bid all season long. The only possible problem here is that the Selection Committee often seems to undervalue results in the conference tourneys when it comes to getting a bid. Sure, we'd knock 'Nova down a seed line, but would we move into the field? If we aren't in at 22-11, I'm not sure 23-11 would be viewed any better. If they started putting the field together Saturday, this would make us a lock, but because they'd already have their baseline bracket set by Thursday or Friday, I'd still be nervous come Selection Sunday.

So what about the scenarios with a loss in regular season? I'll assume a loss to Creighton. Why? Because it would actually be less damaging than a loss to Villanova, and frankly, I have severe doubts about our ability to go into Omaha and come away with a win. Anyway...if we lose to Creighton, that likely drops us to the 3/6 game against Seton Hall, followed by Xavier and Villanova. Personally, I'd rather play the Wednesday games if it gave us a chance to avoid Seton Hall. Not sure anyone is a worse matchup for us in the entire league. But I digress...on to scenarios. 3-1 with a loss to Creighton and losing to Seton Hall on Thursday?

20-12 (9-9)
RPI: 95
SOS: 92
Loss to Seton Hall

Not only are we out of the NCAAs with that scenario, but we probably miss the NIT as well. After all the regular season champs get slotted, there probably won't be enough bids to get to the mid-90s, and unlike the NCAAs, the NIT seems to be even more strict in following the RPI. We missed the NIT in 2014 with a better (92) RPI than this. Next scenario, go 3-1, somehow beat SHU, then lose to Xavier?

21-12 (9-9)
RPI: 84
SOS: 80
Beat Seton Hall, Lose to Xavier

The good news, we probably get a NIT berth, but NCAAs? No chance. So how about if we get to the Final?

22-12 (9-9)
RPI: 70
SOS: 67
Beat Seton Hall, Beat Xavier, Lose to Villanova

This puts us squarely in bubble territory, but we probably would be left out. Not only because of the low RPI, but because conference tourney games seem to get less merit than regular season games when it comes to bubble teams.

So what does all this mean? Pretty much that our only hope of getting an at-large bid is winning out the regular season and at least making the semifinals of the Big East Tournament, and for the NIT we probably need to win 4 more total games.

The reality is our NCAA Tourney started on November 13. There were four defining moments that cost us a tourney bid this season:

November 13: Belmont

We blew an 80-79 lead with under 30 seconds to play. I know, it's a narrow lead, but that was a huge moment. You need to finish that at home.

January 20: DePaul

Duane Wilson should have been the hero when he put us up 56-54 with 8 seconds to play. Instead, Billy Garrett drives the floor, gets a layup and a phantom and-one call to beat us with 1 second left. Huge, huge moment.

February 6: at Xavier

We led most of the way before falling behind at the under-8. Still, the team fought back and Cheatham's free throws made it a 1-point game with 2:15 to play. We couldn't finish off the comeback as XU finished the game with a 12-5 run.

February 13: Creighton

We had a 62-60 lead thanks to Duane Wilson, but James Milliken's three with 1:04 to play followed by a poor final minute led to another home loss.

You could just as easily argue the moments against IUPUI, LSU, ASU, Wisconsin, and Providence (twice) were just as important positives as these four moments were negatives, and you'd be right, but had just one or two of those gone the other way, we'd be talking about the tournament. Hell, if all four of those had gone the other way, we could finish 2-2 and lose our first Big East Tourney game and still likely get in. But it is what it is. We had a very slim margin for error this season, and the errors in those four finishes are the difference between a tourney bid and a trip to the couch to watch the NCAAs on TV.

Ha - I appreciate it Brew - I realize the RPI is the killer but when you look at a team like Alamaba

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/333/alabama-crimson-tide

who are on the bubble on all the analyst services tt seems like our resume isn't that far off theirs.  Makes those cupcakes so much more frustrating. 

I would be amazed if we go 4-0 but I mean we have realistic shots at Creighton, Gtown and Butler.  Villanova is a tough W but hey - someone gets super hot and it could happen.  HE's showcase game! The trick though is to play at our potential for four (5) straight games.

[brewcity77]

If Alabama splits their last 4 and loses the 7/10 game to Arkansas in the SEC Tourney, they're still looking at a 65 RPI and 39 SOS. I'll be the first to say that RPI is a massively flawed metric, but the only way we beat those numbers is to go undefeated until the Big East Tourney final.

That's why our cupcakes were so disappointing. When you look at our body of work, we've only got one really bad loss (DePaul at home), have quite a few decent wins (LSU, ASU, Wisconsin, Providence x2, Butler), and if we finished even 3-1, you'd have to think a 9-9 league record wouldn't be too damning. Everything about our resume has the look of a solid bubble team that should have a shot if we finish strong, but we're trying to swim with 6 massive anchors tied to our legs.

If we can get to an RPI in the 65-75 range, we might have a shot because we'd be hot late. But anything below that, it'd just be asking the committee to ignore a ton of our resume.

[1SE]

If Alabama splits their last 4 and loses the 7/10 game to Arkansas in the SEC Tourney, they're still looking at a 65 RPI and 39 SOS. I'll be the first to say that RPI is a massively flawed metric, but the only way we beat those numbers is to go undefeated until the Big East Tourney final.

That's why our cupcakes were so disappointing. When you look at our body of work, we've only got one really bad loss (DePaul at home), have quite a few decent wins (LSU, ASU, Wisconsin, Providence x2, Butler), and if we finished even 3-1, you'd have to think a 9-9 league record wouldn't be too damning. Everything about our resume has the look of a solid bubble team that should have a shot if we finish strong, but we're trying to swim with 6 massive anchors tied to our legs.

If we can get to an RPI in the 65-75 range, we might have a shot because we'd be hot late. But anything below that, it'd just be asking the committee to ignore a ton of our resume.

Hopefully will be a wake-up call for next year's scheduling. What was the average RPI of those cupcakes - about 320?  Any way to figure out what our RPI goes to if we say those cupcakes average out at 220?   

[WarriorPride68]

Hopefully will be a wake-up call for next year's scheduling. What was the average RPI of those cupcakes - about 320?  Any way to figure out what our RPI goes to if we say those cupcakes average out at 220?   

Schedule is the killer, no doubt.

0-5 record vs top 25 RPI teams

9-0 record vs 200+ RPI teams

Non conference SOS is 314 right now (out of 351 teams)

[brewcity77]

Hopefully will be a wake-up call for next year's scheduling. What was the average RPI of those cupcakes - about 320?  Any way to figure out what our RPI goes to if we say those cupcakes average out at 220?   

The problem is actually the combined record of the six bad cupcakes, which currently stands at 25-99 (and that's with some overachieving). I know I calculated the difference somewhere by substituting the teams we played for other, better cupcakes that were available to play on the same days we did.

[brewcity77]

Here it is: http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=50537.msg803881#msg803881

I posted that before the loss at home to Creighton, but gives a decent idea of how the RPI and SOS would change had we just scheduled 4 different cupcakes. It also factors in what the RPI would be if we had gone 3-1 in those 4 games.

[1SE]

Here it is: http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=50537.msg803881#msg803881

I posted that before the loss at home to Creighton, but gives a decent idea of how the RPI and SOS would change had we just scheduled 4 different cupcakes. It also factors in what the RPI would be if we had gone 3-1 in those 4 games.

Great stuff - so winning out the regular season would be

21-10 (10-8)
Actual Schedule -- RPI: 74 / SOS: 92
New Schedule -- RPI: 45 / SOS: 39
3-1 Schedule -- RPI: 63 / SOS: 39 **20-11 (10-8)**

That looks like a tourney team.  Even 3-1 over these last four would be on the bubble.  Painful.

[willie warrior]

Right. If we can beat DePaul without Billy Garrett, we can beat anybody

Not only that, but our mammoth win over wisc demonstrates even further our dragon slayer awesomeness. Those two wins alone should make us a lock for the dance.

[1SE]

Not only that, but our mammoth win over wisc demonstrates even further our dragon slayer awesomeness. Those two wins alone should make us a lock for the dance.

Don't know how I end up the MUoptimist here, but come on, we're 4-2 over the last 6 with quality wins against Butler and Providence.  We hung close @Xavier right until the end and were a du-will trey away from OT with Creighton.  I don't think 4-0 is going to happen but we've been playing solid ball over the last 6 games and the only real stretch in this next 4 is 'Nova and, hey, maybe HE decides he wants top 3 money and goes for 30 and 20 on them! :-)

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If we win out in the regular season are we in? No. If we win out, our most likely Big East path would be the 4/5 game against Providence, then Villanova, then Xavier in the final. So if we lose to Providence...

21-11 (10-8)
RPI: 82
SOS: 90
Loss to Providence

No team with a sub-70 RPI has made the tournament as an at-large since the 90's. We sure as hell wouldn't be sniffing it with an 82. What if we beat Providence?

22-11 (10-8)
RPI: 70
SOS: 76
Beat Providence, lose to Villanova in the semifinals.

That gives us a slim, slim chance. The RPI would be very low for an at-large, but in an age of weak bubble teams getting in, we'd have a chance. The real strength of our resume would be recency, with a 6-1 record in our last 7, 7-3 in our last 10, and 11-4 in our last 15. Those losses would all be to teams that are top-50 Pomeroy teams with Creighton as the only loss that might not be a tourney team. Now if we beat Villanova and lose to Xavier?

23-11 (10-8)
RPI: 62
SOS: 63
Beat Providence, beat Villanova, lose to Xavier in finals

On paper, it's a much better resume. Personally, I've thought 23 wins was our benchmark for a bid all season long. The only possible problem here is that the Selection Committee often seems to undervalue results in the conference tourneys when it comes to getting a bid. Sure, we'd knock 'Nova down a seed line, but would we move into the field? If we aren't in at 22-11, I'm not sure 23-11 would be viewed any better. If they started putting the field together Saturday, this would make us a lock, but because they'd already have their baseline bracket set by Thursday or Friday, I'd still be nervous come Selection Sunday.

So what about the scenarios with a loss in regular season? I'll assume a loss to Creighton. Why? Because it would actually be less damaging than a loss to Villanova, and frankly, I have severe doubts about our ability to go into Omaha and come away with a win. Anyway...if we lose to Creighton, that likely drops us to the 3/6 game against Seton Hall, followed by Xavier and Villanova. Personally, I'd rather play the Wednesday games if it gave us a chance to avoid Seton Hall. Not sure anyone is a worse matchup for us in the entire league. But I digress...on to scenarios. 3-1 with a loss to Creighton and losing to Seton Hall on Thursday?

20-12 (9-9)
RPI: 95
SOS: 92
Loss to Seton Hall

Not only are we out of the NCAAs with that scenario, but we probably miss the NIT as well. After all the regular season champs get slotted, there probably won't be enough bids to get to the mid-90s, and unlike the NCAAs, the NIT seems to be even more strict in following the RPI. We missed the NIT in 2014 with a better (92) RPI than this. Next scenario, go 3-1, somehow beat SHU, then lose to Xavier?

21-12 (9-9)
RPI: 84
SOS: 80
Beat Seton Hall, Lose to Xavier

The good news, we probably get a NIT berth, but NCAAs? No chance. So how about if we get to the Final?

22-12 (9-9)
RPI: 70
SOS: 67
Beat Seton Hall, Beat Xavier, Lose to Villanova

This puts us squarely in bubble territory, but we probably would be left out. Not only because of the low RPI, but because conference tourney games seem to get less merit than regular season games when it comes to bubble teams.

So what does all this mean? Pretty much that our only hope of getting an at-large bid is winning out the regular season and at least making the semifinals of the Big East Tournament, and for the NIT we probably need to win 4 more total games.

Thanks for this post Brew. Its definitely a tall task, but I enjoy following along.  To me, making the NCAAs is the difference between a good year and bad, even though there have been enormous strides this year versus last.  The future is bright, but the goal should always be to dance every year.

It's a long shot, but there is still a chance.  Starts on Wednesday.

[brewcity77]

After the last two years, I'd consider the NIT, Vegas, or even CBI to be a step in the right direction. Anything that has us playing beyond Selection Sunday would be a win in my book.