Does our NCAA tourney start Wednesday?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

After the last two years, I'd consider the NIT, Vegas, or even CBI to be a step in the right direction. Anything that has us playing beyond Selection Sunday would be a win in my book.

Step in the right direction, yes.

Success?  Absolutely not.  At least in my book.

[Big Papi]

Here it is: http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=50537.msg803881#msg803881

I posted that before the loss at home to Creighton, but gives a decent idea of how the RPI and SOS would change had we just scheduled 4 different cupcakes. It also factors in what the RPI would be if we had gone 3-1 in those 4 games.

So would the bad scheduling of cream puffs be a Wojo problem or a Broeker problem? 

To have that kind of schedule, no matter what the makeup was of our team, is a huge disappointment.  It made it darn near impossible to be even in consideration of the NCAA from the get go with that type of schedule.  Just adds to the frustration level.

[Big Papi]

Step in the right direction, yes.

Success?  Absolutely not.  At least in my book.

When was the last time MU missed out on any postseason tourney 3 years running?  And this in a day and age when there are more teams going to post season tourneys then ever before.

[WarriorPride68]

When was the last time MU missed out on any postseason tourney 3 years running?  And this in a day and age when there are more teams going to post season tourneys then ever before.

Last 2 years with Deane & first 2 years with Crean I believe for missing the NCAA atleast

[wadesworld]

People are really complaining about the schedule right now?

Sorry, but 8-10 in the BE even with a top 25 SOS wasn't getting us into the NCAAs unless we won the BET.  So, we're in the same spot we would've been if we played a tougher schedule.

Give me the wins and build on it going into next year.  The non-conference schedule achieved what it was meant to achieve.  Successful scheduling job.

[Jay Bee]

The *hope* should be an NIT berth. Absent an amazing BET run or going 4-0 to close out the regular season, we're in a rough spot.

Hopefully will be a wake-up call for next year's scheduling. What was the average RPI of those cupcakes - about 320?  Any way to figure out what our RPI goes to if we say those cupcakes average out at 220?   

No. That scenario doesn't provide the information needed. Your RPI is not based on your opponents' RPI.

A team with a much "better" RPI can be worse on your RPI to play (assuming same location).

[teamdee]

already started

[naginiF]

People are really complaining about the schedule right now?

Sorry, but 8-10 in the BE even with a top 25 RPI wasn't getting us into the NCAAs unless we won the BET.  So, we're in the same spot we would've been if we played a tougher schedule.

Give me the wins and build on it going into next year.  The non-conference schedule achieved what it was meant to achieve.  Successful scheduling job.

[/b]
Totally agree, and kill me if this has been refuted but isn't the major flaw in the "if our schedule had a higher strength our RPI would higher!" argument that we would have the same W-L as we do today?  If our SOS was 100 points higher we'd have, guessing, 2 more losses and our RPI would suffer. 

The complaining would be at the same volume but directed at the performance not the competition.

*note: i've not done the myriad of RPI/Sagrin scenarios of our W-L vs different levels of opposition.

[MU82]

To me, making the NCAAs is the difference between a good year and bad

There's no in-between?

To me, the NCAAs rank No. 1. But after that, it depends on a lot of factors before I make a declaration.

Did we improve? Where were we starting from? Did the team's performance give hope for the future or suggest little hope for the future? Was the team mostly enjoyable to watch?

Based on all of those factors, I would say this was not a "good" season but also was not a "bad" season.

If 2014-15 was "bad" (or even "awful") and 2012-13 was "good" (or even "great"), I would rate this season as "OK."

I enjoyed watching the games again, I got some great "up" moments thanks to wins over Wisconsin, Providence and Butler as well as wins in the 2 games I attended in Brooklyn, and I think the program is on the right trajectory.

That can't be "bad" in my book. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

There's no in-between?

To me, the NCAAs rank No. 1. But after that, it depends on a lot of factors before I make a declaration.

Did we improve? Where were we starting from? Did the team's performance give hope for the future or suggest little hope for the future? Was the team mostly enjoyable to watch?

Based on all of those factors, I would say this was not a "good" season but also was not a "bad" season.

If 2014-15 was "bad" (or even "awful") and 2012-13 was "good" (or even "great"), I would rate this season as "OK."

I enjoyed watching the games again, I got some great "up" moments thanks to wins over Wisconsin, Providence and Butler as well as wins in the 2 games I attended in Brooklyn, and I think the program is on the right trajectory.

That can't be "bad" in my book.

No in between for me. I watch every game and enjoy doing so, but short of making the NCAA the year is a failure in my book.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

People are really complaining about the schedule right now?

Sorry, but 8-10 in the BE even with a top 25 RPI wasn't getting us into the NCAAs unless we won the BET.  So, we're in the same spot we would've been if we played a tougher schedule.

Give me the wins and build on it going into next year.  The non-conference schedule achieved what it was meant to achieve.  Successful scheduling job.

Couldn't disagree with this and the subsequent reply to post more.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

The *hope* should be an NIT berth. Absent an amazing BET run or going 4-0 to close out the regular season, we're in a rough spot.

This I agree with.  We have work to do to get an NIT bid - would be a real disappointment if we don't get one.

[MU82]

No in between for me. I watch every game and enjoy doing so, but short of making the NCAA the year is a failure in my book.

OK. That's fair. You're only speaking to your own opinion and not projecting it onto others.

[brewcity77]

Lots to address...

So would the bad scheduling of cream puffs be a Wojo problem or a Broeker problem?

Neither and both? The athletic department wanted to get wins on the schedule. These guys, along with Scholl, I'm sure, all had a hand in crafting the schedule. I don't think you can point at any one individual.

People are really complaining about the schedule right now?

Sorry, but 8-10 in the BE even with a top 25 RPI wasn't getting us into the NCAAs unless we won the BET.  So, we're in the same spot we would've been if we played a tougher schedule.

Give me the wins and build on it going into next year.  The non-conference schedule achieved what it was meant to achieve.  Successful scheduling job.

In order...I'm not complaining about the schedule. The question was raised as to what difference improved opposition would make. I was simply addressing that. I'm not happy with the schedule, but at this point, it's spilled milk and I'm not crying.

8-10 in the Big East with a top-25 RPI? Hmm...let's see how close I can get to that with the Wizard using teams that played the same nights we played..

DROP: Grambling, Maine, Chicago State, Presbyterian
ADD: at Vanderbilt, at Louisville, at West Virginia, at Maryland (all wins, needed to get to 24 RPI)

In addition, let's say we also won the Belmont and Iowa games. Here's where we'd be at, assuming wins in our final two home games ('Nova and GT) and losses in our final two road games (Creighton and Butler) as well as a first-round BET loss to Seton Hall:

21-11 (8-10)
RPI: 24
SOS: 17
Record v top-25: 5-3
Record v top-50: 8-6
Record v top-100: 14-10
Record v 101-200: 2-1
Record v 200+: 5-0

That wouldn't just get us in, that would probably get us a 6-seed. Undefeated non-con with four top-20 wins, three of those on the road? We'd be a lock. Granted, it would be near impossible to accomplish, but your scenario of 8-10 in league with a top-25 RPI wouldn't just have us dancing, it'd have us in ballet slippers.

But what's done is done. Hopefully the wins get us consideration for some form of postseason play. If we can't sneak into the NIT, I'd love to play in the new Vegas tournament. Anything to prolong the season, and that one would probably be fun.

[/b]
Totally agree, and kill me if this has been refuted but isn't the major flaw in the "if our schedule had a higher strength our RPI would higher!" argument that we would have the same W-L as we do today?  If our SOS was 100 points higher we'd have, guessing, 2 more losses and our RPI would suffer. 

The complaining would be at the same volume but directed at the performance not the competition.

*note: i've not done the myriad of RPI/Sagrin scenarios of our W-L vs different levels of opposition.

I'll point again to this: http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=50537.msg803881#msg803881

The only changes I made to our schedule were four cupcakes. Replacing Grambling, Maine, Chicago State, and Presbyterian with Vermont, Kent State, New Hampshire, and Fairfield. I included in that scenarios for going 3-1 in those four new games. All of those teams played games the same nights we did, so all would have been technically available for us to schedule. Had we gone 3-1 (losing to Kent State), we would still be in much better shape than today, with an average RPI improvement of about 17.8 spots.

Right now, I agree with Jay Bee. NIT should be the goal, and it's at least somewhat realistic. Still a lot to do to get there.

[wadesworld]

Lots to address...

Neither and both? The athletic department wanted to get wins on the schedule. These guys, along with Scholl, I'm sure, all had a hand in crafting the schedule. I don't think you can point at any one individual.

In order...I'm not complaining about the schedule. The question was raised as to what difference improved opposition would make. I was simply addressing that. I'm not happy with the schedule, but at this point, it's spilled milk and I'm not crying.

8-10 in the Big East with a top-25 RPI? Hmm...let's see how close I can get to that with the Wizard using teams that played the same nights we played..

DROP: Grambling, Maine, Chicago State, Presbyterian
ADD: at Vanderbilt, at Louisville, at West Virginia, at Maryland

In addition, let's say we won the Belmont and Iowa games too. Here's where we'd be at, assuming wins in our final two home games ('Nova and GT) and losses in our final two road games (Creighton and Butler) as well as a first-round BET loss to Seton Hall:

21-11 (8-10)
RPI: 24
SOS: 17
Record v top-25: 5-3
Record v top-50: 8-6
Record v top-100: 14-10
Record v 101-200: 2-1
Record v 200+: 5-0

That wouldn't just get us in, that would probably get us a 6-seed. Undefeated non-con with four top-20 wins, three of those on the road? We'd be a lock. Granted, it would be near impossible to accomplish, but your scenario of 8-10 in league with a top-25 RPI wouldn't just have us dancing, it'd have us in ballet slippers.

But what's done is done. Hopefully the wins get us consideration for some form of postseason play. If we can't sneak into the NIT, I'd love to play in the new Vegas tournament. Anything to prolong the season, and that one would probably be fun.



I'll point again to this: http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=50537.msg803881#msg803881

The only changes I made to our schedule were four cupcakes. Replacing Grambling, Maine, Chicago State, and Presbyterian with Vermont, Kent State, New Hampshire, and Fairfield. I included in that scenarios for going 3-1 in those four new games. All of those teams played games the same nights we did, so all would have been technically available for us to schedule. Had we gone 3-1 (losing to Kent State), we would still be in much better shape than today, with an average RPI improvement of about 17.8 spots.

Right now, I agree with Jay Bee. NIT should be the goal, and it's at least somewhat realistic. Still a lot to do to get there.

I meant SOS, not RPI.  If we were to go 8-10 (which at this point is pretty optimistic) in the BE but we changed our non-conference to be much more difficult and finished with a top 25 SOS, our RPI would not be in the top 25.  We are what we are.  A young, inexperienced team who isn't consistent enough to build a resume that warrants an NCAA Tourney at large birth, regardless of whether we played a very difficult schedule or not.

AKA everything about this team stays the same but we played a different early season schedule, we're still not anything close to an at large NCAA Tournament team.  Now if we could keep the experience we have through this point of the season but wipe everything out, start 0-0 today, and play a top 25 SOS schedule then we'd have a shot.  But the reality is the schedule was (smartly) set up to get the young team some wins and build a winning culture.  Going forward this was the best way to set up our schedule, as our team was not ready to compete with top or even mid level teams early in the season (see us losing to a pretty meh Belmont team at home, going to overtime with a horrible IUPUI team, getting completely smoked by a really good Iowa team, getting more or less smoked by a pretty meh Georgetown team for 80% of the game, getting smoked by a pretty solid SH team, etc.).  We simply weren't ready for a tough schedule.  Now we would be, but that's not how things work.

[brewcity77]

I meant SOS, not RPI.  If we were to go 8-10 (which at this point is pretty optimistic) in the BE but we changed our non-conference to be much more difficult and finished with a top 25 SOS, our RPI would not be in the top 25.  We are what we are.  A young, inexperienced team who isn't consistent enough to build a resume that warrants an NCAA Tourney at large birth, regardless of whether we played a very difficult schedule or not.

AKA everything about this team stays the same but we played a different early season schedule, we're still not anything close to an at large NCAA Tournament team.  Now if we could keep the experience we have through this point of the season but wipe everything out, start 0-0 today, and play a top 25 SOS schedule then we'd have a shot.  But the reality is the schedule was (smartly) set up to get the young team some wins and build a winning culture.  Going forward this was the best way to set up our schedule, as our team was not ready to compete with top or even mid level teams early in the season (see us losing to a pretty meh Belmont team at home, going to overtime with a horrible IUPUI team, getting completely smoked by a really good Iowa team, getting more or less smoked by a pretty meh Georgetown team for 80% of the game, getting smoked by a pretty solid SH team, etc.).  We simply weren't ready for a tough schedule.  Now we would be, but that's not how things work.

Okay, that I would agree with. Odds of us sweeping Maryland, West Virginia, Louisville, and Vandy on the road to get to a 17 SOS would be pretty slim

I would have liked to see a slightly tougher schedule (as listed in the linked post above) because I think it would give us a good shot at the NIT, and I think this team could gain a lot from playing in that tournament. I know, it's not the NCAAs that some of us always want, but right now, I'd take that as significant progress. And right now, even in this thread about our NCAA hopes, the reality is we're a NIT bubble team that is currently on the wrong side of that bubble.

[naginiF]

I'll point again to this: http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=50537.msg803881#msg803881

[/quote]
Gracias!  I didn't mean to turn you into the lazy Scooper's search engine.

Good original analysis.

[Loose Cannon]

No in between for me. I watch every game and enjoy doing so, but short of making the NCAA the year is a failure in my book.

In my book a Good year is when Improvement/Development/Record is better than the previous year.  This has been a Good year!

[NCMUFan]

MU needs to play like it is the NCAA tourney.

[brewcity77]

In my book a Good year is when Improvement/Development/Record is better than the previous year.  This has been a Good year!

+1

The past few years have definitely been a case of adjusted expectations. Buzz left the cupboard bare, but there are plenty of indicators we're heading in the right direction. It's not all seashells and balloons, but I think years three and four should continue to show improvement. And honestly, I haven't given up on this year yet. Maybe winning the BET is a bit far fetched, but I'd be very happy even with a NIT or Vegas trip. I just want some form of basketball past Selection Sunday at this point. The past two years have been pretty depressing come mid-March.