K's leash

[MU82]

The man has lost 4 of his last 5 games, including 3 straight to unranked opponents, 2 of them at Cameron Indoor.

He has admitted his team hasn't been well prepared at times. Isn't that the coach's job?

He has admitted that freshman Brandon Ingram -- higher ranked than Ellenson coming out of high school and higher ranked on pretty much every NBA draft board -- often takes one step forward and two steps backward. Isn't it the coach's job to develop his players?

After falling to Miami, he said: “We lost, but our kids weren’t out-competed. I always tell my guys, you play your butts off, compete, and I’m good. So I’m good. I’m good.” Are moral victories now acceptable at Duke?

He also admitted Miami was the better team. Isn't it his job to out-recruit Miami?

Duke has been hurt by an injury to his starting power forward. Isn't it the coach's job to recruit better depth?

His team's 4-4 start in ACC play is its worst in 20 years. Clearly K's program is reeling.

How much longer will Duke's administration settle for this mediocre performance? I can't believe he was given a contract extension not all that long ago!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Wojo to Duke?

[Loose Cannon]

The man has lost 4 of his last 5 games, including 3 straight to unranked opponents, 2 of them at Cameron Indoor.

He has admitted his team hasn't been well prepared at times. Isn't that the coach's job?

He has admitted that freshman Brandon Ingram -- higher ranked than Ellenson coming out of high school and higher ranked on pretty much every NBA draft board -- often takes one step forward and two steps backward. Isn't it the coach's job to develop his players?

After falling to Miami, he said: “We lost, but our kids weren’t out-competed. I always tell my guys, you play your butts off, compete, and I’m good. So I’m good. I’m good.” Are moral victories now acceptable at Duke?

He also admitted Miami was the better team. Isn't it his job to out-recruit Miami?

Duke has been hurt by an injury to his starting power forward. Isn't it the coach's job to recruit better depth?

His team's 4-4 start in ACC play is its worst in 20 years. Clearly K's program is reeling.

How much longer will Duke's administration settle for this mediocre performance? I can't believe he was given a contract extension not all that long ago!

And Wojo falls from the same Tree.....Oh Boy are we in trouble!

[1SE]

And Wojo falls from the same Tree.....Oh Boy are we in trouble!

I promise you that when Wojo has his 5 national championships, 12 final fours and 1000 wins I'll be willing to cut him a bit more slack.

That being said, I think many people would say K has under-performed in the past 15 years - a lot of 1 and 2 seed teams that don't make the third (or even second) weekend.

[brewcity77]

I promise you that when Wojo has his 5 national championships, 12 final fours and 1000 wins I'll be willing to cut him a bit more slack.

That being said, I think many people would say K has under-performed in the past 15 years - a lot of 1 and 2 seed teams that don't make the third (or even second) weekend.

In the past 15 years (2001-2015), Duke has won 3 national championships, been to 4 Final Fours, 5 Elite Eights, and 11 Sweet Sixteens. Anyone calling that underperforming is an idiot. There are programs that have done better in some of those categories (Kansas, UConn, and Kentucky have more Elite Eights, Michigan State has more Final Fours and Sweet Sixteens), but no one has cut down the nets at the finals more times (UConn also has 3) and few teams can even dream of coming close to that.

The only way it could be seen as disappointing is because Duke went to 8 Final Fours in the 15 years before that (1986-2000), but they only won two titles and went to the same number of Sweet 16s in that time. The only people who think K is underachieving are losers, as in they must like losing, because he wins more than anyone (and winningest coach all time factors in there too).

[tower912]

I promise you that when Wojo has his 5 national championships, 12 final fours and 1000 wins I'll be willing to cut him a bit more slack.

That being said, I think many people would say K has under-performed in the past 15 years - a lot of 1 and 2 seed teams that don't make the third (or even second) weekend.

Do you know anything about basketball?

[We R Final Four]

I promise you that when Wojo has his 5 national championships, 12 final fours and 1000 wins I'll be willing to cut him a bit more slack.

That being said, I think many people would say K has under-performed in the past 15 years - a lot of 1 and 2 seed teams that don't make the third (or even second) weekend.

Didnt he win a NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP last year?  That is considered performance in my book.

[Windyplayer]

Didn't he land the top two recruits in the 2016 class? I think he's fine.

[Warrior Code]

Wojo to Duke, Dawkins to MU, Collins to Stanford,  Amaker to Northwestern, Brey to whichever store he buys his little mock turtle necks from. Coach K becomes a "brand ambassador" for Duke. So I decree it.

[Warrior Code]

Wojo to Duke, Dawkins to MU, Collins to Stanford,  Amaker to Northwestern, Brey to whichever store he buys his little mock turtle necks from. Coach K becomes a "brand ambassador" for Duke. So I decree it.

Crean to Harvard, for good measure.

[1SE]

Do you know anything about basketball?

Do you know anything about being an unbiased observer?  Listen - Coach K is a phenomenal coach and anyone anywhere would be thrilled with Duke's success.  That doesn't mean they still haven't under-performed RELATIVE TO EXPECTATIONS.  Just look at a very simple seed-based analysis - over the last 15 years they've overachieved relative to seed thrice (the three national championships), been on the seed expectation twice, and under-performed 10 times.  Again - The last 25 years of Duke basketball have been amazing in their consistency and success, but it's not a crazy argument to say they could/should have achieved more.

But then again I'm talking to the guy that will be happy if we make the NIT again by 2020.

2015   1   -   National Championship    OVER
2014   3   26-9   First Round   UNDER
2013   2   30-6   Elite Eight   ON
2012   2   27-7   First Round   UNDER
2011   1   32-5   Sweet 16   UNDER
2010   1   35-5   National Championship   OVER
2009   2   30-7   Sweet 16   UNDER
2008   2   28-6   Second Round   UNDER
2007   6   22-11   First Round   UNDER
2006   1   31-4   Sweet 16   UNDER
2005   1   27-6   Sweet 16   UNDER
2004   1   31-6   Final Four   ON
2003   3   26-7   Sweet 16   UNDER
2002   1   31-4   Sweet 16   UNDER
2001   1   35-4   National Championship   OVER
2000   1   29-5   Sweet 16   UNDER

[Galway Eagle]

Didnt he win a NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP last year?  That is considered performance in my book.

Yeah but he lost to Mercer and LIU Brooklyn!

That being said, I think many people would say K has under-performed in the past 15 years - a lot of 1 and 2 seed teams that don't make the third (or even second) weekend.

Outside of the loss to Mercer as a 2 seed and Lehigh as a 3 seed when has he truly under performed? Maybe I'd toss in the 2008 loss to WVU.  What do you want a perfect tournament record? I'd say 2 or 3 bad years during that stretch are well earned. 

[Galway Eagle]

Do you know anything about being an unbiased observer?  Listen - Coach K is a phenomenal coach and anyone anywhere would be thrilled with Duke's success.  That doesn't mean they still haven't under-performed RELATIVE TO EXPECTATIONS.  Just look at a very simple seed-based analysis - over the last 15 years they've overachieved relative to seed thrice (the three national championships), been on the seed expectation twice, and under-performed 10 times.  Again - The last 25 years of Duke basketball have been amazing in their consistency and success, but it's not a crazy argument to say they could/should have achieved more.

But then again I'm talking to the guy that will be happy if we make the NIT again by 2020.

2015   1   -   National Championship    OVER
2014   3   26-9   First Round   UNDER
2013   2   30-6   Elite Eight   ON
2012   2   27-7   First Round   UNDER
2011   1   32-5   Sweet 16   UNDER
2010   1   35-5   National Championship   OVER
2009   2   30-7   Sweet 16   UNDER
2008   2   28-6   Second Round   UNDER
2007   6   22-11   First Round   UNDER
2006   1   31-4   Sweet 16   UNDER
2005   1   27-6   Sweet 16   UNDER
2004   1   31-6   Final Four   ON
2003   3   26-7   Sweet 16   UNDER
2002   1   31-4   Sweet 16   UNDER
2001   1   35-4   National Championship   OVER
2000   1   29-5   Sweet 16   UNDER

Your whole argument is based on seeding, you don't see anything wrong with that? When you fill out your bracket do you not call upsets because you think one team may have been seeded too low? The tournament is a crap shoot. Heck I'd be willing to bet if you reseeded the 70s ncaa tournaments that AL probably underachieved too. Nobody's going to be perfect. 

[GGGG]

Do you know anything about being an unbiased observer?  Listen - Coach K is a phenomenal coach and anyone anywhere would be thrilled with Duke's success.  That doesn't mean they still haven't under-performed RELATIVE TO EXPECTATIONS.  Just look at a very simple seed-based analysis - over the last 15 years they've overachieved relative to seed thrice (the three national championships), been on the seed expectation twice, and under-performed 10 times.  Again - The last 25 years of Duke basketball have been amazing in their consistency and success, but it's not a crazy argument to say they could/should have achieved more.

But then again I'm talking to the guy that will be happy if we make the NIT again by 2020.

2015   1   -   National Championship    OVER
2014   3   26-9   First Round   UNDER
2013   2   30-6   Elite Eight   ON
2012   2   27-7   First Round   UNDER
2011   1   32-5   Sweet 16   UNDER
2010   1   35-5   National Championship   OVER
2009   2   30-7   Sweet 16   UNDER
2008   2   28-6   Second Round   UNDER
2007   6   22-11   First Round   UNDER
2006   1   31-4   Sweet 16   UNDER
2005   1   27-6   Sweet 16   UNDER
2004   1   31-6   Final Four   ON
2003   3   26-7   Sweet 16   UNDER
2002   1   31-4   Sweet 16   UNDER
2001   1   35-4   National Championship   OVER
2000   1   29-5   Sweet 16   UNDER

So in other words, the only way he would have met expectations would have been to go to 9 Final Fours in 16 years.

Great analysis.

[1SE]

Your whole argument is based on seeding, you don't see anything wrong with that? When you fill out your bracket do you not call upsets because you think one team may have been seeded too low? The tournament is a crap shoot. Heck I'd be willing to bet if you reseeded the 70s ncaa tournaments that AL probably underachieved too. Nobody's going to be perfect. 

Like I said, I'd be thrilled to be Duke and I think any CBB fan should be.  Just a response to a snarky thread suggesting that my calling out Wojo is like Dukeies calling out K - and, I'm just saying, given expectations it's wouldn't be entirely unrealistic for them to have been unhappy with Duke's performance (this year and at other times in the recent past).  You're right that seeding isn't perfect but the error should be random (i.e. if that's the case one should overpeform as often as they underperform).  There is certainly an argument to be made that Duke gets systematically overseeded, but that's a different argument.

I'm just surprised everyone here are such Wojo homers that even mentioned a possibility of criticizing K is unthinkable because somehow that's then a knock on Wojo.  Next you're all going to tell me Tommy Amaker is just a season or two away from a national champisonship run.

My whole raison d'etre here has just been to point out that at some point might we not think Wojo is under-performing RELATIVE TO EXPECTATIONS.  Many of you don't think so and that's absolutely fine.  But one can certainly make an argument the other way.

[1SE]

So in other words, the only way he would have met expectations would have been to go to 9 Final Fours in 16 years.

Great analysis.

It's certainly a plausible argument.  Like I said just now Duke is probably (almost certainly) over-seeded on a consistent basis - BUT many of those 1 seed years even if they were a 2 they failed to make the Elite 8.  I realize it's a ridiculously high bar of expectation but that still doesn't mean they didn't consistently underperform to that bar.

[Lennys Tap]

The man has lost 4 of his last 5 games, including 3 straight to unranked opponents, 2 of them at Cameron Indoor.

He has admitted his team hasn't been well prepared at times. Isn't that the coach's job?

He has admitted that freshman Brandon Ingram -- higher ranked than Ellenson coming out of high school and higher ranked on pretty much every NBA draft board -- often takes one step forward and two steps backward. Isn't it the coach's job to develop his players?

After falling to Miami, he said: “We lost, but our kids weren’t out-competed. I always tell my guys, you play your butts off, compete, and I’m good. So I’m good. I’m good.” Are moral victories now acceptable at Duke?

He also admitted Miami was the better team. Isn't it his job to out-recruit Miami?

Duke has been hurt by an injury to his starting power forward. Isn't it the coach's job to recruit better depth?

His team's 4-4 start in ACC play is its worst in 20 years. Clearly K's program is reeling.

How much longer will Duke's administration settle for this mediocre performance? I can't believe he was given a contract extension not all that long ago!

Might as well compare Tom Brady to Johnny Manziel (without the booze). Not your best work.

[tower912]

And I would argue that the expectations were the issue relative to wojo.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Do you know anything about being an unbiased observer?  Listen - Coach K is a phenomenal coach and anyone anywhere would be thrilled with Duke's success.  That doesn't mean they still haven't under-performed RELATIVE TO EXPECTATIONS.  Just look at a very simple seed-based analysis - over the last 15 years they've overachieved relative to seed thrice (the three national championships), been on the seed expectation twice, and under-performed 10 times.  Again - The last 25 years of Duke basketball have been amazing in their consistency and success, but it's not a crazy argument to say they could/should have achieved more.

But then again I'm talking to the guy that will be happy if we make the NIT again by 2020.

2015   1   -   National Championship    OVER
2014   3   26-9   First Round   UNDER
2013   2   30-6   Elite Eight   ON
2012   2   27-7   First Round   UNDER
2011   1   32-5   Sweet 16   UNDER
2010   1   35-5   National Championship   OVER
2009   2   30-7   Sweet 16   UNDER
2008   2   28-6   Second Round   UNDER
2007   6   22-11   First Round   UNDER
2006   1   31-4   Sweet 16   UNDER
2005   1   27-6   Sweet 16   UNDER
2004   1   31-6   Final Four   ON
2003   3   26-7   Sweet 16   UNDER
2002   1   31-4   Sweet 16   UNDER
2001   1   35-4   National Championship   OVER
2000   1   29-5   Sweet 16   UNDER

Why is March the only thing you judge a coach on? The man has been a top three seed 14 of the past 15 years. And that one was a six seed. That's damn near perfect for a coach. If you judge solely on postseason success than you would be disappointed by about every coach. The reason k has "underperformed" is because he gets so many 1 seeds that he needs to make the final four to play to seed. According to you K would need 9 final fours, 4 elite 8s, 2 sweet 16s and 1 round of 32 to be performing. Do you see how crazy that is?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

My whole raison d'etre here has just been to point out that at some point might we not think Wojo is under-performing RELATIVE TO EXPECTATIONS.  Many of you don't think so and that's absolutely fine.  But one can certainly make an argument the other way.

Wojo has exceeded my expectations and the administration's expectations. That second one is the only one that matters.

Your expectations were and still are unreasonable.

[1SE]

Why is March the only thing you judge a coach on? The man has been a top three seed 14 of the past 15 years. And that one was a six seed. That's damn near perfect for a coach. If you judge solely on postseason success than you would be disappointed by about every coach. The reason k has "underperformed" is because he gets so many 1 seeds that he needs to make the final four to play to seed. According to you K would need 9 final fours, 4 elite 8s, 2 sweet 16s and 1 round of 32 to be performing. Do you see how crazy that is?

Sure - for a fan or Marquette or 348 other DI teams, yes.  But if you're Duke (or Kentucky) I think it is reasonable for a fan to set the "expectation" bar at "9 final fours, 4 elite 8s, 2 sweet 16s and 1 round of 32" over a 15 year period.  Again, this is all relative to expectation.

Tower - I'm happy to concede that you and I have different view of what the expectation bar should be, and that's perfectly fine (I still do not think it is outrageous to expect NIT in year two given the class we had come in - and if they hit that bar I'm fine).  You don't expect that, and that's fine - but we can have different expectations that are still reasonable.  I just prefer to have higher expectations given our recent success and the amount of resources we invest in MBB.

[1SE]

Wojo has exceeded my expectations and the administration's expectations. That second one is the only one that matters.

Your expectations were and still are unreasonable.

My expectations are NIT (and have been all along).  I'm pretty sure in the pre-season poll that outcome (or better) was well in the majority of the posters here.

[Galway Eagle]

Like I said, I'd be thrilled to be Duke and I think any CBB fan should be.  Just a response to a snarky thread suggesting that my calling out Wojo is like Dukeies calling out K - and, I'm just saying, given expectations it's wouldn't be entirely unrealistic for them to have been unhappy with Duke's performance (this year and at other times in the recent past).  You're right that seeding isn't perfect but the error should be random (i.e. if that's the case one should overpeform as often as they underperform).  There is certainly an argument to be made that Duke gets systematically overseeded, but that's a different argument.

I'm just surprised everyone here are such Wojo homers that even mentioned a possibility of criticizing K is unthinkable because somehow that's then a knock on Wojo.  Next you're all going to tell me Tommy Amaker is just a season or two away from a national champisonship run.

My whole raison d'etre here has just been to point out that at some point might we not think Wojo is under-performing RELATIVE TO EXPECTATIONS.  Many of you don't think so and that's absolutely fine.  But one can certainly make an argument the other way.

The only way it'd make sense if they over performed and underperformed equally is if it was perfectly random and the same situation every year. But it's not, sometimes you have an allstar guard sometimes and allstar forward, if you run into say the Lopez brothers and your team is loaded with all star guards you're going to lose. It's too complex to make a blanket judgement that "one should overpeform as often as they underperform".  Next, we should really have a historical annalysis about how well 1 seeds and 2 seeds generally perform because that would be a better indicator of what to expect from them than the 1 or 2 next to their name. 

I'm not a Wojo homer, I think your argument that K underperforms is crazy because it ignores a million other factors and expects a crazy winning record in the tournament that coaches just don't get. 

[GGGG]

Sure - for a fan or Marquette or 348 other DI teams, yes.  But if you're Duke (or Kentucky) I think it is reasonable for a fan to set the "expectation" bar at "9 final fours, 4 elite 8s, 2 sweet 16s and 1 round of 32" over a 15 year period.  Again, this is all relative to expectation.

Actually those are completely unreasonable expectations for any program.  And why people generally roll their eyes at fans who actually have such expectations.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Might as well compare Tom Brady to Johnny Manziel (without the booze). Not your best work.

Why? If Tom Brady a future HOFer can have a bad stretch of games, why is so unreasonable for Manzeil to have a bad stretch of games?

Coach K, arguably the best basketball coach of all time, has a roster that was ranked in the top 10 preseason, and is still having a really bad stretch of games. Why is it so unreasonable for a much lesser coach with a lesser roster to have one bad game?

Seriously, this board lost its sh*t over one bad loss. Was losing to Xavier, a top 5 team, by single digits a bad loss? Was hanging tough, leading Villanova at half in their hellhole of a home gym, but ultimately losing to a top 5 team a bad loss? No. Losing at Georgetown? No. Losing to Seton Hall? That one stung at home but it is not an unreasonable. Getting blown out by Iowa sucked but their a top 5 team so not a bad loss either. Belmont at home could be called a bad loss but whens its the first game of the season and you have the 4th youngest team and your playing one of the top 20 experienced teams, its understandable.

Really, just one bad loss. Depaul. Which we lost by 1 to because of a phantom foul. It was an ugly loss but its hardly reasonable to crucify a young coach with a riduclously young roster for having one ugly loss the way Wojo and this team have been.

So MU82's post was tongue and cheek and a bit hyperbolous, but I think it puts a good perspective that even the best coaches have bad stretches. Wojo having one ugly loss shouldn't warrant the overreaction that happened here.