Has The Sports Bubble Popped?

[Tugg Speedman]

College football championship television ratings decrease
Despite a quality game between Alabama and Clemson, ESPN’s ratings for the College Football Playoff title game declined.

http://www.si.com/college-football/2016/01/12/college-football-national-title-game-espn-megacast

What the network did not get was viewership numbers even close to those from last year. The national title game drew a 25.7 million viewers on ESPN, down 23% from the 2015 championship. (That game—Ohio State’s 42–20 win over Oregon—drew 33.8 million viewers.) If you factor in ESPN's complete Megacast coverage, the viewership was 26.182 million. Those are disappointing numbers given the quality of the game. The ’16 title game did not have nearly the buzz of last year’s contest, perhaps a byproduct of how badly the College Football Playoff executives bungled New Year’s Eve.

It was not just this national championship game that disappointed

CFP semifinals ratings are an epic flop

http://www.si.com/more-sports/2016/01/03/college-football-playoff-semifinals-ratings-colleen-dominguez-lawsuit

ESPN drew 15,640,000 viewers for its Orange Bowl matchup featuring Clemson’s 37–17 victory over Oklahoma, down 45% in viewership when compared to last year’s first Playoff semifinal (Oregon-Florida State). The primetime matchup featuring Alabama’s 38–0 win over Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl drew 18,552,000 viewers, a drop of 34%  from last year’s equivalent (Ohio State-Alabama).

And not it is not just college football

The NHL Winter Classic ratings hits an all-time low (Canadiens v Bruins from Gillette Stadium)
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/five-reasons-winter-classic-ratings-hit-all-time-low-for-nbc-162025653.html

What’s Wrong With the NBA’s TV Ratings?
Despite the Golden State Warriors’ historic run, the league’s national cable ratings are down again
Dec. 21, 2015
http://www.wsj.com/articles/whats-wrong-with-the-nbas-tv-ratings-1450744363

Now to be fair

NFL Ratings Spike 11% for Opening Weekend of Playoffs
January 11, 2016
http://variety.com/2016/tv/news/nfl-ratings-spike-opening-weekend-playoffs-1201677111/

Except for the NFL all other sports TV ratings (and attendance if you read these stories) seems to be crashing.

So you know what this means ... Chicos buddies at the nets will so completed overpay for the NFL so when it goes over the side they take maximum losses.

Thoughts?

[Benny B]

Hmmmm.... College sports and NBA increasingly being put on second-tier cable channels.

NFL still broadcasts everything (in local market) OTA.

Who'd uh thunk.

[brandx]

The "sky is falling"  again.


Fewer people with cable = fewer viewers. Simple math.

[DegenerateDish]

The CFP title game being down is a silly argument that ignores simple facts.

The South will always watch the CFP, always, no matter who is playing. Last year had a west coast team vs a midwest team. Plain as day to see less interest this year considering who was playing.

[brandx]

The CFP title game being down is a silly argument that ignores simple facts.

The South will always watch the CFP, always, no matter who is playing. Last year had a west coast team vs a midwest team. Plain as day to see less interest this year considering who was playing.

Yup.

[rocket surgeon]

The CFP title game being down is a silly argument that ignores simple facts.

The South will always watch the CFP, always, no matter who is playing. Last year had a west coast team vs a midwest team. Plain as day to see less interest this year considering who was playing.

isn't alabama and clemson considered to be south?  dream teams would come from texas, florida, alabama, georgia, mississippi, louisiana, but this one was pretty close and a great game with a lot of action. 

only thing missing was a.j. mccarren's girlfriend/wife-einer so brent? heyyyyoooooo!!

[Tugg Speedman]

The CFP title game being down is a silly argument that ignores simple facts.

The South will always watch the CFP, always, no matter who is playing. Last year had a west coast team vs a midwest team. Plain as day to see less interest this year considering who was playing.

How does that depress Hockey and NBA ratings?

[ChicosBailBonds]

I'm at a conference with Mark Cuban and we spoke today in the subject.  He was part of a panel withHreg Maffei and several analysts.  Short answer....not even close.

No one else has the money or infrastructure todo it right now.  One analyst said years.  Another, 5 to 7 and that's if they even want to

[rocket surgeon]

I'm at a conference with Mark Cuban and we spoke today in the subject.  He was part of a panel withHreg Maffei and several analysts.  Short answer....not even close.

No one else has the money or infrastructure todo it right now.  One analyst said years.  Another, 5 to 7 and that's if they even want to

you bast...rubbin shoulders with some big dogs again-tell him rocket said hello   i don't care what anyone says, that's pretty cool.  i get all geeked up talking to frankie k

[DegenerateDish]

How does that depress Hockey and NBA ratings?

Hockey game had a Canadian market and the fad of outdoor hockey has faded.

NBA ratings are down because the Lakers are hot garbage, Knicks/Celts/Bulls are average, not spectacular.

[#UnleashSean]

I'm at a conference with Mark Cuban and we spoke today in the subject.  He was part of a panel withHreg Maffei and several analysts.  Short answer....not even close.

No one else has the money or infrastructure todo it right now.  One analyst said years.  Another, 5 to 7 and that's if they even want to

GOOGLE

[Stronghold]

The "sky is falling"  again.


Fewer people with cable = fewer viewers. Simple math.

Count me in this population.  I recently made the switch from having an HD box from TWC with a bazillion channels to just using a digital antenna and high speed internet.  Saves me at least $60 a month and I still get ABC, NBC, CBS, and FOX in HD with my digital antenna so I can watch the news, a few primetime shows, and NFL just fine.  I stream nearly everything else I want to watch.

[Tugg Speedman]

I'm at a conference with Mark Cuban and we spoke today in the subject.  He was part of a panel withHreg Maffei and several analysts.  Short answer....not even close.

No one else has the money or infrastructure todo it right now.  One analyst said years.  Another, 5 to 7 and that's if they even want to

Mark Cuban and Greg Maffei are saying the sports bubble is just fine and expanding.

Do you ask your barber if you need a haircut?

[mu03eng]

I will say this.....I do agree there is a sports content bubble that I think will pop within the next 5-10 years.

There were several very interesting articles around ads for ESPN's New Year's Eve games and in conjunction with the results of the NC its at least something to keep an eye on. Basically, ESPN charges a certain rate for a 30 second spot and in return they "guarantee" X amount of eye balls in the form of ratings. If they don't come through they have to make it up by "giving" advertising in a future instance, and often they will hold some ad time, in say the NC game, as make up. Well, the ratings were so bad that the amount of "make up" they had to do that they exceeded the held back ad time for the NC game plus a lot more....which means they aren't making money on that ad time. It's classic revenue erosion.

http://www.broadcastingcable.com/news/currency/media-buyers-espn-negotiating-20m-bowl-game-ad-makegoods/146777

By no means is this the end times, but there are definitely signs of stress as content rights costs go up and potential ad revenue gets tighter.

[Litehouse]

Count me in this population.  I recently made the switch from having an HD box from TWC with a bazillion channels to just using a digital antenna and high speed internet.  Saves me at least $60 a month and I still get ABC, NBC, CBS, and FOX in HD with my digital antenna so I can watch the news, a few primetime shows, and NFL just fine.  I stream nearly everything else I want to watch.

How do you stream MU games?  FS1 for MU and FSN for the Brewers are the only reasons I keep cable now.

[GGGG]

I will say this.....I do agree there is a sports content bubble that I think will pop within the next 5-10 years.

There were several very interesting articles around ads for ESPN's New Year's Eve games and in conjunction with the results of the NC its at least something to keep an eye on. Basically, ESPN charges a certain rate for a 30 second spot and in return they "guarantee" X amount of eye balls in the form of ratings. If they don't come through they have to make it up by "giving" advertising in a future instance, and often they will hold some ad time, in say the NC game, as make up. Well, the ratings were so bad that the amount of "make up" they had to do that they exceeded the held back ad time for the NC game plus a lot more....which means they aren't making money on that ad time. It's classic revenue erosion.

http://www.broadcastingcable.com/news/currency/media-buyers-espn-negotiating-20m-bowl-game-ad-makegoods/146777

By no means is this the end times, but there are definitely signs of stress as content rights costs go up and potential ad revenue gets tighter.

I will point out that this was 12 months after everyone was praising the ratings of the College Football Playoffs first year.

So did everything change that much in 12 months?  Or was it the boneheaded decision to play the semifinals on New Years Eve followed by a championship game between two southern teams - a region that would watch the game regardless of who is playing but doesn't much interest the east, midwest or west coast. 

[Stronghold]

How do you stream MU games?  FS1 for MU and FSN for the Brewers are the only reasons I keep cable now.

First Row Sports website when I watch them from home.  It isn't HD quality but at least it's there if I want it.  For big games I go somewhere to watch it which is one of the downsides of not having cable.

[mu03eng]

I will point out that this was 12 months after everyone was praising the ratings of the College Football Playoffs first year.

So did everything change that much in 12 months?  Or was it the boneheaded decision to play the semifinals on New Years Eve followed by a championship game between two southern teams - a region that would watch the game regardless of who is playing but doesn't much interest the east, midwest or west coast.

It's a combination of all of that, but I'm not really intending to focus on just the CFP, that's just one of the potential symptoms. I don't think the money being spent on the content is sustainable given the ratings they are likely to generate. Two things at work...ratings for some content just won't go up consistently and there will come a time when other methods of advertising will come in vogue, putting price pressure on ad revenue.

[Litehouse]

It's a combination of all of that, but I'm not really intending to focus on just the CFP, that's just one of the potential symptoms. I don't think the money being spent on the content is sustrightble given the ratings they are likely to generate. Two things at work...ratings for some content just won't go up consistently and there will come a time when other methods of advertising will come in vogue, putting price pressure on ad revenue.

Sustrightble strikes again!

[GooooMarquette]

The CFP title game being down is a silly argument that ignores simple facts.

The South will always watch the CFP, always, no matter who is playing. Last year had a west coast team vs a midwest team. Plain as day to see less interest this year considering who was playing.

That might explain the title game, but not the semifinals (Michigan State).

[GGGG]

That might explain the title game, but not the semifinals (Michigan State).

New Year's Eve was a dumb time to hold the semifinals.  They should have moved to Saturday the 2nd.

[Tugg Speedman]

New Year's Eve was a dumb time to hold the semifinals.  They should have moved to Saturday the 2nd.

would not have mattered.  All the bowl game ratings and even attendance was terrible.  No game or time slot was safe.

College football is over the top and on the downside of ratings.  As I noted before, every sport is seeing sliding ratings except the NFL.


Bowl games take a TV ratings hit
January 11th, 2016 at 8:04pm

http://www.abqjournal.com/704444/sports/bowl-games-take-a-tv-ratings-hit.html


“The Granddaddy of Them All” — the Rose Bowl —in which Stanford pummelled Iowa 45-16 on Jan. 1, had its lowest TV viewership ever.

ESPN/ABC televised 38 bowl games this season. The games had a 2.8 rating and averaged 4,676,000 each.

That’s down from 2014-15, when there were 37 bowl games televised. They had a 3.2 rating with an average of 5,341,000 viewers each.

All bowls this season, except the NY6 (New Year’s Day’s six games), had a  2.1 rating and averaged 3,305,000 viewers.

In  2014-15, all bowls minus NY6 had a 2.2 rating and averaged 3,452,000 viewers each.

[GGGG]

I'm not saying that sports ratings will see a long-term decline.  But last year saw huge CFP ratings.  The two semifinals were called at the time the two most watched cable television shows ever.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/1/2/7481649/rose-bowl-sugar-bowl-2015-tv-ratings

So I attribute this year's declines mostly to short-term issues:  bad match-ups, blowouts and poor scheduling.  Very little to the long-term issue of degradation of sports ratings.

[muwarrior69]

would not have mattered.  All the bowl game ratings and even attendance was terrible.  No game or time slot was safe.

College football is over the top and on the downside of ratings.  As I noted before, every sport is seeing sliding ratings except the NFL.


Bowl games take a TV ratings hit
January 11th, 2016 at 8:04pm

http://www.abqjournal.com/704444/sports/bowl-games-take-a-tv-ratings-hit.html


“The Granddaddy of Them All” — the Rose Bowl —in which Stanford pummelled Iowa 45-16 on Jan. 1, had its lowest TV viewership ever.

ESPN/ABC televised 38 bowl games this season. The games had a 2.8 rating and averaged 4,676,000 each.

That’s down from 2014-15, when there were 37 bowl games televised. They had a 3.2 rating with an average of 5,341,000 viewers each.

All bowls this season, except the NY6 (New Year’s Day’s six games), had a  2.1 rating and averaged 3,305,000 viewers.

In  2014-15, all bowls minus NY6 had a 2.2 rating and averaged 3,452,000 viewers each.

What about the NCAA Tournament?

[RushmoreAcademy]

Personally, the games being on the 31st made it so that I couldn't watch most of the games when I normally would have.   I also now care even less about the regular bowl games now that there is a playoff.... I mean, they never meant anything before, but now that there are more games that do mean something exist, they seem somehow even less meaningful.
But I'm just one man.... one man can't change anything.  Rock the vote!