RPI

[Jay Bee]

Also, worth remembering that our RPI in New York won't go up significantly unless we make the final. Go 0-1 and it drops, go 1-1 and it stays about the same. Strictly from an RPI perspective, you need to win more than you lose to see any marked increase.

Careful... must be delicate with words here.

If we go 10-8 in the BEast and go 1-1 in the BET, our RPI will drop. However, our RPI ranking may improve because so many other teams are losing in the BET and other tourneys. Depending on where our opp's w-l sits heading in, and how we do in the BET, things can improve quite a bit (RPI ranking) even if our RPI goes down slightly (as calculated).

All gets down to the details.

[warriorstrack]

Let's win the whole thing

[warriorstrack]

[Herman Cain]

The way I look at is is the Big East is as good or better than it was last year and we got six bids.
2014-15 Standings prior to NCAA tournament
Villanova     16-2      32-2
Butler     12-6      22-10   
Georgetown 12-6      21-10   
Providence     11-7      22-11   
St John's     10-8      21-11   
Xavier     9-9         21-13   

Xavier won two BET tournament games. So they were 19-12 pre tournament.

I think this years conference dispersion is going to be much tighter. I think 10-8 and 1 BET  tournament win gets us to 22-11 which should be good enough.

[brewcity77]

Careful... must be delicate with words here.

If we go 10-8 in the BEast and go 1-1 in the BET, our RPI will drop. However, our RPI ranking may improve because so many other teams are losing in the BET and other tourneys. Depending on where our opp's w-l sits heading in, and how we do in the BET, things can improve quite a bit (RPI ranking) even if our RPI goes down slightly (as calculated).

All gets down to the details.

Yeah, that's why my pure guess would be that 1-1 ends up about a wash. In terms of the RPI ranking, would probably change no more than 2-3 spots when all's said and done.

Most likely, wherever we stand before the BET wouldn't change if we go 1-1, more likely just solidify that we are whatever they thought.

[Litehouse]

The way I look at is is the Big East is as good or better than it was last year and we got six bids.
2014-15 Standings prior to NCAA tournament
Villanova     16-2      32-2
Butler     12-6      22-10   
Georgetown 12-6      21-10   
Providence     11-7      22-11   
St John's     10-8      21-11   
Xavier     9-9         21-13   

Xavier won two BET tournament games. So they were 19-12 pre tournament.

I think this years conference dispersion is going to be much tighter. I think 10-8 and 1 BET  tournament win gets us to 22-11 which should be good enough.

Xavier finished with an RPI of 28 last year, which helped them get in despite being 6th in the conference. St. John's was 52 at 5th place.  We're going to struggle to get into the 60's with 10 wins, which might not be enough.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Sort of, but not really. The difference of who they are against is incredibly marginal. The number of wins is what matters. You could say "but if we beat Villanova and Xavier" and that'd be great, but you'd have to offset that with two other losses, say to Creighton and DePaul, and suddenly it's not so great.

23 wins is the number for a lock, no matter who they are against, 22 is squarely on the bubble, 21 or less and we're probably waiting for a call from the NIT.

Marginal or not, if you go through all the scenarios, it can mean a 10-8 record each time, but the difference between a 59 and a 71.   I think that's a pretty big spread, despite the records being the "same".

[Benny B]

You guys realize that all of these RPI projections and "wizards" emanate from an extremely flawed model? 

The whole thing is based on simulations run thousands of times for 350 teams who each have roughly 16-18 games left to play.  That's close to 3,000 games in D-I left to play.  And those results are based on KenPom's or Sagarin's models, which aren't perfect themselves.

Someone do the math on how many possible outcomes there are for those 3,000 games and tell me if running 10,000 simulations seems like it would be a fine predictor at this point in a season where all of the pundits are talking about parity.

IOW... Don't be surprised if MU closes the regular season at 10-8 with an RPI in the high 40s/low 50s.  It's not about "simulating" the remainder of MU's schedule... you have to simulate everyone else's schedule too.

[Jay Bee]

You guys realize that all of these RPI projections and "wizards" emanate from an extremely flawed model? 

The whole thing is based on simulations run thousands of times for 350 teams who each have roughly 16-18 games left to play.  That's close to 3,000 games in D-I left to play.  And those results are based on KenPom's or Sagarin's models, which aren't perfect themselves.

Someone do the math on how many possible outcomes there are for those 3,000 games and tell me if running 10,000 simulations seems like it would be a fine predictor at this point in a season where all of the pundits are talking about parity.

IOW... Don't be surprised if MU closes the regular season at 10-8 with an RPI in the high 40s/low 50s.  It's not about "simulating" the remainder of MU's schedule... you have to simulate everyone else's schedule too.

Don't see a high-40's / low-50's being likely under a 10-8 scenario. I think low to mid 60s at 10-8 is a reasonable expectation.

The key in that thinking (and the models) is that our opp's W-L calc is likely to be dragged down by a few very awful %'s... Chicago State looks like a 3-win team.. San Jose State.. maybe 4...

Now, Presbyterian, Grambling St, Maine... they may be able to pick things up a bit from where projected...but they're still going to be bad..

[MU82]

I think our best chance at securing an NCAA tournament bid would be by winning a lot more games.

Thank you. (Drops mic.)

[ChicosBailBonds]

Our RPI forecast right now is 120.  We have a lot of work to do.

[muwarrior69]

I think our best chance at securing an NCAA tournament bid would be by winning a lot more games.

Thank you. (Drops mic.)

We could lose all the rest of our games, but sweep the BET and we're in. It's a crap shoot.

[bilsu]

The Big East could get 7 bids and MU could be one of the the three that does not get a bid.

[oldwarrior81]

Marginal or not, if you go through all the scenarios, it can mean a 10-8 record each time, but the difference between a 59 and a 71.   I think that's a pretty big spread, despite the records being the "same".

I guess I don't follow the math on this.

RPI only takes into account W/L and location when calculating the 25% record portion of the formula.   If MU wins at DePaul and Creighton and loses at Villanova and Xavier, the RPI will be identical when compared to winning at Villanova and Xavier and losing at DePaul and Creighton.

[cheebs09]

I thought a team's actual RPI wasn't what the committee looked at the most. I thought they have been moving towards using it more as a way to quantify quality wins. I think our record against the Top 50 and Top 100 will be more important than whatever our RPI ranking ends up being.

We already are in a good place with the Providence win as far as resume building wins. The bubble isn't great and there were a lot of bad losses early on. Plus, while our non-conference was weak, we did come out with 2 neutral site wins and 1 road win. That's something that will help when comparing resumes.

[Benny B]

Don't see a high-40's / low-50's being likely under a 10-8 scenario. I think low to mid 60s at 10-8 is a reasonable expectation.

The key in that thinking (and the models) is that our opp's W-L calc is likely to be dragged down by a few very awful %'s... Chicago State looks like a 3-win team.. San Jose State.. maybe 4...

Now, Presbyterian, Grambling St, Maine... they may be able to pick things up a bit from where projected...but they're still going to be bad..

But that's just MU's RPI... What matters is the RPI Rank, and that's dependent on 349 other teams to a) determine the 349 other teams' RPI and b) where those 349 teams rank against MU.

Bottom line, too much volatility to make any sort of prediction of the remaining 3,000 games... And that makes RPI (and rank) volatile by extension.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I guess I don't follow the math on this.

RPI only takes into account W/L and location when calculating the 25% record portion of the formula.   If MU wins at DePaul and Creighton and loses at Villanova and Xavier, the RPI will be identical when compared to winning at Villanova and Xavier and losing at DePaul and Creighton.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Marquette.html

What I was saying is what makes up the 10-8 matters to some degree.  Home, away, etc.  As an example, go to the link I have and select MU to win their next 8 conference games and then lose the last 6.  That would make us 10-8 with a RPI of 71.  Now, do one where we lose most of the home games coming up, means a 76 RPI.  Then there are scenarios that bring up around 60.

[Jay Bee]

I guess I don't follow the math on this.

RPI only takes into account W/L and location when calculating the 25% record portion of the formula.   If MU wins at DePaul and Creighton and loses at Villanova and Xavier, the RPI will be identical when compared to winning at Villanova and Xavier and losing at DePaul and Creighton.

Not exactly...because of the opp opp w-l component. (by "not exactly" I mean "no, that's incorrect.")

But that's just MU's RPI... What matters is the RPI Rank, and that's dependent on 349 other teams to a) determine the 349 other teams' RPI and b) where those 349 teams rank against MU.

Bottom line, too much volatility to make any sort of prediction of the remaining 3,000 games... And that makes RPI (and rank) volatile by extension.

Completely disagree (and not just on the faulty 349 figure). The idea that I'm unable to reasonable predict the records of our non-conf opponents and/or any teams in college bball is outlandish. I can, with great confidence, and would put $ on it.

[bilsu]

If we are on the bubble and do not get in, will it be becasue of our RPI or because we lost to Belmont? It would seem to me it would be the loss to Belmont.

[ChicosBailBonds]

If we are on the bubble and do not get in, will it be becasue of our RPI or because we lost to Belmont? It would seem to me it would be the loss to Belmont.

The two are not mutually exclusive

[Herman Cain]

If we are on the bubble and do not get in, will it be becasue of our RPI or because we lost to Belmont? It would seem to me it would be the loss to Belmont.

Under the scenario above , I think it would be lack of signature wins. If we can beat some more of the top teams in the conference we can be in the discussion.

[bilsu]

Under the scenario above , I think it would be lack of signature wins. If we can beat some more of the top teams in the conference we can be in the discussion.

I said"If we are on the bubble" which I am assuming we have at least a 10-8 record in the Big East. Basically, if we are 9-9 or worse we will not be in the bubble consideration. Basically all 10-8 is is that you won one more game on the road than you lost at home. Right now we are even. I road win and ine home loss.

[MUfan12]

This league is a bitch, and I'm not sure this team is good enough to get to double digit wins in it. They don't value the ball and don't finish possessions very well on defense.

It wouldn't surprise me if they won against Nova or Xavier, and lost to DePaul or St. John's. Just the way it goes with a really young team. Trying to project out RPI rankings at this point is premature.

[MarquetteDano]

This league is a bitch, and I'm not sure this team is good enough to get to double digit wins in it. They don't value the ball and don't finish possessions very well on defense.

It wouldn't surprise me if they won against Nova or Xavier, and lost to DePaul or St. John's. Just the way it goes with a really young team. Trying to project out RPI rankings at this point is premature.

Unfortunately I agree.  I think we probably go 8-10 or 9-9.  Hope the warriors prove me wrong.

[MUDPT]

Pomeroy has 3 for sure wins left: DePaul, @St. John's, Georgetown

Probable Losses (7): @Nova, Xavier, @ Seton Hall, @ Xavier, @ Creighton, Nova, @ Butler

That's 9 losses right there.

Toss-Ups, 40-50% chance of winning (4): Butler, Providence, Creighton, @DePaul

So, MU wins all of the first group and all of the last group, that's 9 wins.  And you have to win one of the probable losses to get to 10.  And all of that is without losing one of the for sure wins or toss-ups.  Don't see it happening.  Also, we are currently ranked 29th in "luck" by Pomeroy.  We will probably lose a close game or two in there as well.