RPI

[Lennys Tap]

On my mobile so I can't check, but 10 conference wins would leave us around 100 in the RPI. Between conference and the BET, here's the scenario...

13+ wins: Virtual lock for NCAA Tournament
12 wins: Bubble
11 wins: Bubble, likely out
10- wins: Virtually no chance, need to win conference tourney

12 wins, even if 6 of them come from Creighton, St Johns and DePaul would include 5 more combined against Georgetown, Providence (already have 1), Nova, Xavier, Butler and Seton Hall. I know nothing about RPI (other than it's worthless as a true measure) but I can't imagine that scenario not being a lock. I think 11 gets us in. Sadly, I don't think we'll get 11 - or even 10.

[BM1090]

On my mobile so I can't check, but 10 conference wins would leave us around 100 in the RPI. Between conference and the BET, here's the scenario...

13+ wins: Virtual lock for NCAA Tournament
12 wins: Bubble
11 wins: Bubble, likely out
10- wins: Virtually no chance, need to win conference tourney

11 BE wins and a first round BET loss would put us at 22-10 with an RPI of about 57. I'd be very surprised if we were left out under that scenario.

Ran the RPI Wizard. 11-7 with a first round BET loss to Xavier, Providence, Villanova, or Butler would give us this. We would be in.

Marquette

W-L   RPI*   SOS
22-10   56   77

[Jay Bee]

That wiki crap re: RPI is nonsense; important to remember the first component is based on ADJUSTED win-loss, not "a team's winning percentage."

On my mobile so I can't check, but 10 conference wins would leave us around 100 in the RPI. Between conference and the BET, here's the scenario...

13+ wins: Virtual lock for NCAA Tournament
12 wins: Bubble
11 wins: Bubble, likely out
10- wins: Virtually no chance, need to win conference tourney

10 conference wins in the regular season and we're likely sitting in the 60-70 range. Depending on who we play, one BET win may be enough to put us in...

Right or wrong, I think the conference will help us and I think the wins against "known names" in the nonconference will help us...

Need to avoid bad losses... St. John's, DePaul.. these become big.

[Windyplayer]

That wiki crap re: RPI is nonsense; important to remember the first component is based on ADJUSTED win-loss, not "a team's winning percentage."

So per KenPom, RPI is calculated as such...

Part I (25% of the formula): Team winning percentage. [Beginning in the 2004-2005 season], the NCAA added a bonus/penalty system, where each home win or road loss get multiplied by 0.6 in the winning percentage calculation. A home loss or road win is multiplied by 1.4. Neutral games count as 1.0. More on the effect of these changes can be found here.

Part II (50%): Average opponents' winning percentage. To calculate this, you must calculate each opponent's winning percentage individually and average those figures. This is NOT calculated from the opponents' combined record. Games involving the team for whom we are calculating the RPI are ignored.

Part III (25%): Average opponents' opponents' winning percentage: Basically taking all of the opponents' Part II values and averaging them.

So really Wiki was just missing the adjustment made in Part I.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

On my mobile so I can't check, but 10 conference wins would leave us around 100 in the RPI. Between conference and the BET, here's the scenario...

13+ wins: Virtual lock for NCAA Tournament
12 wins: Bubble
11 wins: Bubble, likely out
10- wins: Virtually no chance, need to win conference tourney

Completely disagree.

13+ wins: Stone cold lock.
12 wins: In comfortably.
11 wins: In.
10- wins: Bubble, perhaps one of last 4 in.
9 wins: Bubble, likely out, without a run to the BE champ, which could put MU back in last 4 in category.

[jsheim]

On my mobile so I can't check, but 10 conference wins would leave us around 100 in the RPI. Between conference and the BET, here's the scenario...

13+ wins: Virtual lock for NCAA Tournament
12 wins: Bubble
11 wins: Bubble, likely out
10- wins: Virtually no chance, need to win conference tourney

If you want to get quoted, say something wrong

top 5 BE are in (maybe 6 depending on circumstances) ... MU in if 10-8 & 1-1 BE. Not sure how you arrive at RPI projections...if we're 10-8 we'll be under 70 even with the playdough non-conf schedule.

quoted from an RPI article...I doubt its perfectly accurate but gives the general idea.
•The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids thru 2012: #67 USC, #64 Marquette (2011), #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007).

[Jay Bee]

So per KenPom, RPI is calculated as such...

Part I (25% of the formula): Team winning percentage. [Beginning in the 2004-2005 season], the NCAA added a bonus/penalty system, where each home win or road loss get multiplied by 0.6 in the winning percentage calculation. A home loss or road win is multiplied by 1.4. Neutral games count as 1.0. More on the effect of these changes can be found here.

Part II (50%): Average opponents' winning percentage. To calculate this, you must calculate each opponent's winning percentage individually and average those figures. This is NOT calculated from the opponents' combined record. Games involving the team for whom we are calculating the RPI are ignored.

Part III (25%): Average opponents' opponents' winning percentage: Basically taking all of the opponents' Part II values and averaging them.

So really Wiki was just missing the adjustment made in Part I.

Well, no. KenPom isn't an appropriate source either and has Part II underdescribed... the calc does not use the opponent's winning percentage individually.. it uses the opponent's winning percentage excluding game(s) against you. Part II on the other hand does not make this adjustment.

[Windyplayer]

Well, no. KenPom isn't an appropriate source either and has Part II underdescribed... the calc does not use the opponent's winning percentage individually.. it uses the opponent's winning percentage excluding game(s) against you. Part II on the other hand does not make this adjustment.

Well, it does. See the last sentence in Part II.

[brewcity77]

If you want to get quoted, say something wrong

top 5 BE are in (maybe 6 depending on circumstances) ... MU in if 10-8 & 1-1 BE. Not sure how you arrive at RPI projections...if we're 10-8 we'll be under 70 even with the playdough non-conf schedule.

quoted from an RPI article...I doubt its perfectly accurate but gives the general idea.
•The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids thru 2012: #67 USC, #64 Marquette (2011), #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007).

Was on my phone and typing a bit quick...what I should have been posting was TOTAL wins, not league wins. 23, 22, 21, 20 were the numbers I should have used. My mistake. Anyway...

Per RPI Wizard...

20-11 (9-9) gets us a 78 RPI
21-10 (10-8) gets us a 65 RPI
22-10 (11-7) gets us a 56 RPI
23-9 (12-6) gets us a 42 RPI

So that means 9-9 and we're out. Highly unlikely we get in with a 78 RPI. 10-8, we're probably out. As you note, teams have got in with lower RPIs, but it's not common. I'd expect us to be out with 21 total wins. Not impossible, but unlikely we'd be in. 22 wins give us a chance. We'd be squarely on the bubble. 50/50 chance we get in at 11-7. 23 or more wins, we're a lock.

Either way, if you want to get quoted, say something wrong. You think 10-8 gets us in comfortably, you're out of your mind. 10-8 likely leaves us out. Assuming your own numbers are correct, only one team with an RPI that low has made it in since 2007, which means there is probably a 95% chance we are out if we go 10-8 in league.

[Jay Bee]

Well, it does. See the last sentence in Part II.

I agree. My mistake.

[Windyplayer]

I agree. My mistake.

I appreciate the initial correction. I had no idea.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Was on my phone and typing a bit quick...what I should have been posting was TOTAL wins, not league wins. 23, 22, 21, 20 were the numbers I should have used. My mistake. Anyway...

Per RPI Wizard...

20-11 (9-9) gets us a 78 RPI
21-10 (10-8) gets us a 65 RPI
22-10 (11-7) gets us a 56 RPI
23-9 (12-6) gets us a 42 RPI

So that means 9-9 and we're out. Highly unlikely we get in with a 78 RPI. 10-8, we're probably out. As you note, teams have got in with lower RPIs, but it's not common. I'd expect us to be out with 21 total wins. Not impossible, but unlikely we'd be in. 22 wins give us a chance. We'd be squarely on the bubble. 50/50 chance we get in at 11-7. 23 or more wins, we're a lock.

Either way, if you want to get quoted, say something wrong. You think 10-8 gets us in comfortably, you're out of your mind. 10-8 likely leaves us out. Assuming your own numbers are correct, only one team with an RPI that low has made it in since 2007, which means there is probably a 95% chance we are out if we go 10-8 in league.

Remember, too, it still depends on who those 10 wins are against.

If we go 10-8 with the 10 wins against (remaining home games and beat SJU and Depaul on road):

We have RPI of  64  (didn't include BET)


If we go 10-8, but with the 10 wins against different teams road \ away

We have RPI of 68 or a few other rankings depending on the combination you wish to choose.

[brewcity77]

Remember, too, it still depends on who those 10 wins are against.

If we go 10-8 with the 10 wins against (remaining home games and beat SJU and Depaul on road):

We have RPI of  64  (didn't include BET)


If we go 10-8, but with the 10 wins against different teams road \ away

We have RPI of 68 or a few other rankings depending on the combination you wish to choose.

Sort of, but not really. The difference of who they are against is incredibly marginal. The number of wins is what matters. You could say "but if we beat Villanova and Xavier" and that'd be great, but you'd have to offset that with two other losses, say to Creighton and DePaul, and suddenly it's not so great.

23 wins is the number for a lock, no matter who they are against, 22 is squarely on the bubble, 21 or less and we're probably waiting for a call from the NIT.

[Marquette_g]

Put me in the 11 win and we are in camp, anything else we are out.

Also the committee seems to put very little value in winning or losing an early round conference tournament game. If you make a deep run (finals) it can help, but the bulk of conference tournament games are meaningless.

[brewcity77]

Put me in the 11 win and we are in camp, anything else we are out.

Also the committee seems to put very little value in winning or losing an early round conference tournament game. If you make a deep run (finals) it can help, but the bulk of conference tournament games are meaningless.

I'm not sure about that, actually seems like the deeper you go, the less the games mean, at least if you're on the bubble. It's easier for them to factor in the games that happen on Wednesday and Thursday than it is weekend games because by then their bracket is starting to take shape.

I can't see any way 23 doesn't make us a lock, and wouldn't hate our chances with 22 wins. But if we come in to the tournament at 20-11 (9-9) winning two may not be enough. It would help the RPI and win count, but by that point, they may already have us pegged as a sub-75 RPI team and not worth looking at if we don't win the conference tourney and force their hand.

[Marquette_g]

I'm not sure about that, actually seems like the deeper you go, the less the games mean, at least if you're on the bubble. It's easier for them to factor in the games that happen on Wednesday and Thursday than it is weekend games because by then their bracket is starting to take shape.

What they could do and what they actually do are often not aligned. The Lunardi's of the world make very few changes based on winning a first round conference tournament game.


I contend that the conference tournament win is the most over-valued component of a season by fans.  Sure winning the whole thing is nice and gives bragging rights (plus the sure bid) but unless that is the only way into the dance, it seems not to have much impact, yet often gets mentioned in threads like this.

They are seeding events (+/- 1 slot) by and large.

[MarquetteDano]

Really hope I am wrong but I just don't see how this team gets in 10 wins in conference.  If you look at the remaining schedule it is really going to be tough.  I have kind of resigned myself to a NIT this year.  Again, hope I am way off the mark.

[jsheim]

Brewcity, sorry if i sounded snarky with the something wrong comment...i was amazed at all the quotes you got...hit a nerve i think...so good post.


But 10 wins and 95%...no way...rpi will sort itself out...committee will be thinking strong conference, winning record, quality wins, home and away.

The tough part of the arguement is they have to finish 10-8 to prove anything....

Fischer made a hook....got to go!

I will say i assume a win in BET and providence doesnt tank

[brewcity77]

Brewcity, sorry if i sounded snarky with the something wrong comment...i was amazed at all the quotes you got...hit a nerve i think...so good post.


But 10 wins and 95%...no way...rpi will sort itself out...committee will be thinking strong conference, winning record, quality wins, home and away.

The tough part of the arguement is they have to finish 10-8 to prove anything....

Fischer made a hook....got to go!

I will say i assume a win in BET and providence doesnt tank

RPI won't "work itself out." I'm not pulling numbers out of the air. 10-8 will give us a sub-60 RPI, which most of the time means waiting for a call from the NIT. We go 10-8 in league and don't win a game at MSG and we'll be virtually guaranteed of watching the tournament on TV.

10-8 means needing 2 at MSG to be a lock. Any less than 10-8 and the only way we get in is the automatic bid. 23 total wins is the magic number.

[forgetful]

RPI won't "work itself out." I'm not pulling numbers out of the air. 10-8 will give us a sub-60 RPI, which most of the time means waiting for a call from the NIT. We go 10-8 in league and don't win a game at MSG and we'll be virtually guaranteed of watching the tournament on TV.

10-8 means needing 2 at MSG to be a lock. Any less than 10-8 and the only way we get in is the automatic bid. 23 total wins is the magic number.

I agree.  10-8 and only 1 at MSG and we are going to be praying for a birth. 

[LAZER]

RPI just fell about 7 spots with the St John's win.

[brewcity77]

Also, worth remembering that our RPI in New York won't go up significantly unless we make the final. Go 0-1 and it drops, go 1-1 and it stays about the same. Strictly from an RPI perspective, you need to win more than you lose to see any marked increase.

[RushmoreAcademy]

RPI just fell about 7 spots with the St John's win.

[martyconlonontherun]

Also, worth remembering that our RPI in New York won't go up significantly unless we make the final. Go 0-1 and it drops, go 1-1 and it stays about the same. Strictly from an RPI perspective, you need to win more than you lose to see any marked increase.

wouldn't most bubble teams rpi percentage decrease since most wins will be by teams in the tourney already so even our rpi actual number goes down our ranking could go up?

[brewcity77]

wouldn't most bubble teams rpi percentage decrease since most wins will be by teams in the tourney already so even our rpi actual number goes down our ranking could go up?

That's why I feel the first two days of conference tournaments are the ones that matter. The bubble teams that at least win 1-2 games. In the past 2 years, 75% of the first four (bubble teams that got in) won at least one in their tourney.