RPI

[MU82]

Just win, baby.

In December, RPI means diddly-do. (Sorry to use such a complicated, technical term.)

[brewcity77]

Win the rest of the cupcakes and go 11-7 in the big east and we're dancing. They aren't leaving out a 21-9 team from one of the best conferences in the country.

It's not that complex.

We'll have at least 32 total games, so at 21-9, we won't even have played Butler yet. But anyway...
.

• 2015: They left out RPI 47 Miami at 21-12 (10-8) from the ACC & RPI 68 Texas A&M at 20-11 (11-7) from the SEC.
  
• 2014: They left out RPI 53 SMU at 23-9 (12-6) from the AAC, RPI 77 Arkansas at 21-11 (10-8) from the SEC, and RPI 67 St. John's at 20-12 (10-8) from the Big East.
  
• 2013: They left out RPI 76 Virginia at 21-11 (11-7) from the ACC and RPI 60 Alabama at 21-12 (12-6).
  
• 2012: They left out RPI 61 Washington at 21-10 (14-4), RPI 63 Oregon at 22-9 (13-5) and RPI 76 Arizona at 23-11 (12-6) from the Pac-12.
  
• 2011: They left out RPI 62 Virginia Tech at 21-11 (9-7) from the ACC and RPI 80 Alabama at 21-11 (14-4) from the SEC.

.
Quite simply, every single year there will be multiple 20+ win teams with winning conference records in the best conferences in the country that get left out. Going 11-7 in conference and losing our first BET game would mean 22-10 with an RPI of 60. Maybe that's good enough. But looking at that list above, I'm not sure it's any better than any of them were.

[MU82]

We'll have at least 32 total games, so at 21-9, we won't even have played Butler yet. But anyway...
.

• 2015: They left out RPI 47 Miami at 21-12 (10-8) from the ACC & RPI 68 Texas A&M at 20-11 (11-7) from the SEC.
  
• 2014: They left out RPI 53 SMU at 23-9 (12-6) from the AAC, RPI 77 Arkansas at 21-11 (10-8) from the SEC, and RPI 67 St. John's at 20-12 (10-8) from the Big East.
  
• 2013: They left out RPI 76 Virginia at 21-11 (11-7) from the ACC and RPI 60 Alabama at 21-12 (12-6).
  
• 2012: They left out RPI 61 Washington at 21-10 (14-4), RPI 63 Oregon at 22-9 (13-5) and RPI 76 Arizona at 23-11 (12-6) from the Pac-12.
  
• 2011: They left out RPI 62 Virginia Tech at 21-11 (9-7) from the ACC and RPI 80 Alabama at 21-11 (14-4) from the SEC.

.
Quite simply, every single year there will be multiple 20+ win teams with winning conference records in the best conferences in the country that get left out. Going 11-7 in conference and losing our first BET game would mean 22-10 with an RPI of 60. Maybe that's good enough. But looking at that list above, I'm not sure it's any better than any of them were.

So I guess we'll have to go at least 12-6 in the conference and then win our first BET game.

There. Problem solved!

(Seriously, thanks for that list. Very informative.)

[brewcity77]

So I guess we'll have to go at least 12-6 in the conference and then win our first BET game.

There. Problem solved!

(Seriously, thanks for that list. Very informative.)

If they left us out under that case (24-9, 38 RPI) I'd be shocked.

Right now, I'm just glad we look secure to go 11-2 in the non-conference, which was my main hope all along. Further, these guys should be really fun to watch the next three months. Whether it's growing pains, or falling short of the NCAAs but getting a chance to see postseason play in the NIT or CBI, or securing a bid and having a chance to make a little run, I definitely look forward to watching this team play.

This is a fun group of kids and I really feel we're already seeing them grow up before our eyes. I have a feeling if Belmont and Iowa came into the BC this week, we'd see much better results than we did a month ago, and I think we'll be even better come February and March than we are now. Can't wait for conference play to start and see some great basketball at the BC!

[MU82]

If they left us out under that case (24-9, 38 RPI) I'd be shocked.

Right now, I'm just glad we look secure to go 11-2 in the non-conference, which was my main hope all along. Further, these guys should be really fun to watch the next three months. Whether it's growing pains, or falling short of the NCAAs but getting a chance to see postseason play in the NIT or CBI, or securing a bid and having a chance to make a little run, I definitely look forward to watching this team play.

This is a fun group of kids and I really feel we're already seeing them grow up before our eyes. I have a feeling if Belmont and Iowa came into the BC this week, we'd see much better results than we did a month ago, and I think we'll be even better come February and March than we are now. Can't wait for conference play to start and see some great basketball at the BC!

I share both your optimistic view and your pledge to enjoy the Marquette basketball we see this season.

I refuse to be so focused on possible destinations that I neglect to enjoy the journey. Maybe around mid-February, I'll start thinking seriously about how this or that game will affect our RPI.

[Windyplayer]

I share both your optimistic view and your pledge to enjoy the Marquette basketball we see this season.

I refuse to be so focused on possible destinations that I neglect to enjoy the journey. Maybe around mid-February, I'll start thinking seriously about how this or that game will affect our RPI.

No better way to go about a season.

[Benny B]

Hmmm... SOS sucks at #289; however, OSOS is #24, that's not to be overlooked (SOS correlates to the OWP part of the RPI equation (50% of RPI) while OSOS correlates to the OOWP (25%)).  Obviously, as the season progresses, OSOS is going to fall, but SOS is going to rise, and I'm reading this as MU having an outstanding opportunity to raise its RPI monumentally simply by winning.

In other words, SOS is mostly irrelevant at this point (just like RPI is entirely irrelevant).  Just win and all will be well... a top 40 RPI is possible with an 11-7 record.

[wadesworld]

If we finish non-conference with 2 losses and finish top 5 in the #1 rated conference in the country, we're comfortably in the field.

[Jay Bee]

50% of our RPI calc projects to be fairly hosed. It's a tall order to get to the tourney this year.

**IF** all games go 'as they should' as of today, PLUS we 'upset', say... Butler and Xavier at the BC, that puts MU in the *conversation*, likely still with work to do in the BET. [assumes 21-10 (10-8) record before conf tourney]

I believe certain committee members look at any number of things.. some of them meaningless and not appropriate to consider, but.... MU's last four are: at Creighton, vs Nova, vs Georgetown, at Butler. Say we only win the Georgetown game... 1-3 in the last four... not a great look.

Let's hope we're in a position where those last four are meaningful and we pull out a few.

11-7 or better and we're likely deep in the conversation and feeling pretty good -- depends a bit on where games are won/lost though.

[g0lden3agle]

2014: They left out RPI 53 SMU at 23-9 (12-6) from the AAC

SMU should try to argue that the NCAA already enacted their post season ban back in 2014 with that screw job.

[MUMountin]

REALLY rough day at the RPI for us yesterday.  Without playing a game we dropped around 20 spots, and around five to ten in projected RPI.  And this is despite all the BE teams winning, including St. John's with an unexpected win over Syracuse.

Why did this happen? (current RPIs in parentheses)

Maine (316) lost at BC (289)
San Jose St (331), at home, lost to Montana St. (194) for the second time this season
LSU (212) continues its free-fall, losing at Houston in OT (161)
Chicago St. (278) lost at Northwestern (54) to remain winless

Not only are the teams we beat losing a lot of games--they are losing a lot of games to a lot of other bad teams.  Double shock to our RPI formula.

[Jay Bee]

Not only are the teams we beat losing a lot of games--they are losing a lot of games to a lot of other bad teams.  Double shock to our RPI formula.

Not true - RPI cares who you play, not who you beat.

[Windyplayer]

RPI is so utterly dumb to look at right now. We're currently at #151 per CBS' RPI ranking.

#150 is Western Kentucky (5-4) with wins over Stony Brook, Eastern Kentucky, Indiana State and Central Michigan; losses to Belmont, Duquesne, Drake and Xavier.

Teams ahead of us: [Decided just to post the link because there are so many historically, jaw-droppingly bad teams ahead of us]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/nitty-gritty-report

[brewcity77]

If we finish non-conference with 2 losses and finish top 5 in the #1 rated conference in the country, we're comfortably in the field.

So if the Big East standings look like this...

1) Xavier 17-1
2) Villanova 16-2
3) Providence 13-5
4) Butler 11-7
5) Marquette 9-9
6) Georgetown 8-10
7) Creighton 7-11
8) Seton Hall 5-13
9) St. John's 3-15
10) DePaul 1-17

You think we'll get in with 11 non-con wins, a 9-9 conference record, and a loss to Butler at MSG, and an RPI of 86? I'd be curious how many teams got an at-large bid with an RPI of 86 or lower. My guess is somewhere between zero and none. And even if we go 10-8, our RPI is looking at 69-71. Again, how many teams ever got in with an RPI that low?

At some point, the numbers are just too bad to be ignored. And this is all assuming current conditions, if LSU and Wisconsin continue to freefall and become sub-100 RPI teams, those wins matter less. What if Belmont finishes middle of the OVC and is a sub-100 team?

There are way too many variables to assume 11 wins and 5th place in the league gets us in. 23 wins gets us in, 22 gets us on the bubble, 21 or less and we'll be able to enjoy another home game at the BC this year. Nothing wrong with any of that.

[RushmoreAcademy]

Look, I have an easy solution to this.  Let's just go undefeated in conference.

[jsglow]

I share both your optimistic view and your pledge to enjoy the Marquette basketball we see this season.

I refuse to be so focused on possible destinations that I neglect to enjoy the journey. Maybe around mid-February, I'll start thinking seriously about how this or that game will affect our RPI.

Exactly.  Let's not get all worked up. While I'm not hoping for this at all I'll bet chick will be insisting that we head to NYC to watch our guys cut down the NIT nets if that's the way it goes.  Let's enjoy the ride.

[mu03eng]

So if the Big East standings look like this...

1) Xavier 17-1
2) Villanova 16-2
3) Providence 13-5
4) Butler 11-7
5) Marquette 9-9
6) Georgetown 8-10
7) Creighton 7-11
8) Seton Hall 5-13
9) St. John's 3-15
10) DePaul 1-17

You think we'll get in with 11 non-con wins, a 9-9 conference record, and a loss to Butler at MSG, and an RPI of 86? I'd be curious how many teams got an at-large bid with an RPI of 86 or lower. My guess is somewhere between zero and none. And even if we go 10-8, our RPI is looking at 69-71. Again, how many teams ever got in with an RPI that low?

At some point, the numbers are just too bad to be ignored. And this is all assuming current conditions, if LSU and Wisconsin continue to freefall and become sub-100 RPI teams, those wins matter less. What if Belmont finishes middle of the OVC and is a sub-100 team?

There are way too many variables to assume 11 wins and 5th place in the league gets us in. 23 wins gets us in, 22 gets us on the bubble, 21 or less and we'll be able to enjoy another home game at the BC this year. Nothing wrong with any of that.

There is no way we get in at less than 11-7 in conference with at least one road win over one of the following: Georgetown, Butler, Nova, Providence, or Xavier.  We are in agreement.

Having said that, I'm going to thoroughly enjoy this season.  This team is capable of going 12-6 or 8-10 but they will be a whole lot of fun doing it.  I also think it's import we acknowledge all of this because I don't want a bunch of people whining that they expected them to go 10-8 in conference and when they deliver that not understand how they aren't in the tournament.

[bamamarquettefan]

I know, lots of you don't like it.  End of the day, it is created by the NCAA and the NCAA is going to use what they create.  Dan Guerrero has told me this personally, he was head of the selection committee.  Doug Elgin, a friend of mine, also has been a head of the committee.  How much it is used, it dependent on each committee member and the value they see in it.
Peace

Agree completely. Everyone knows www.kenpom.com, Sagarin and other are more accurate. The problem is that if you use one of those then you give incentive to run up the scores like Virginia Tech and Florida were doing in the old BCS days before they took margin of victory away. If one of the others were used, it might be just as important to leave the starters in and try to beat Grambling by 66 points instead of 46 points to run up our score. Like it or not, RPI does not reward margin of victory and therefore the NCAA likes it.

My thought was always a compromise under which you could factor margin of error up to 15 points or something to reward a team for a 2-point loss on the road to a ranked team. Or you could take the square root of the victory margin so that there was little incentive to run up the score. Under that set up, turning a 4-point loss to a 4-point win would help your margin of victory as much as turning a 16-point win to a 64-point win. That would allow credit for strong showings but take away almost all incentive to risk injury and embarrassing the opponent by trying to run up a score late.

[jsheim]

I think we get in with 10-8   (add 11-2 nc, 1-1 bet) = 22-11 ... RPI will be 60-70.
having said that I don't like that we played so many cupcakes at home and only 1 real road game....kills RPI.

Xav, Vil, Prv = 1-5
GT,But = 2-2
Cre, SH = 3-1
STJ, DP = 4-0
===========
10-8

I see maybe stealing a game against X/V/P   and one against GT/BT   but that's all.
If they do better than that I will be all to happy to apologize.

[mu03eng]

I think we get in with 10-8   (add 11-2 nc, 1-1 bet) = 22-11 ... RPI will be 60-70.
having said that I don't like that we played so many cupcakes at home and only 1 real road game....kills RPI.

Xav, Vil, Prv = 1-5
GT,But = 2-2
Cre, SH = 3-1
STJ, DP = 4-0
===========
10-8

I see maybe stealing a game against X/V/P   and one against GT/BT   but that's all.
If they do better than that I will be all to happy to apologize.

I'm willing to wager we don't get in with what you propose.....it would have to be an awfully soft bubble and/or no auto-bids going to cinderellas

[brandx]

So if the Big East standings look like this...

1) Xavier 17-1
2) Villanova 16-2
3) Providence 13-5
4) Butler 11-7
5) Marquette 9-9
6) Georgetown 8-10
7) Creighton 7-11
8) Seton Hall 5-13
9) St. John's 3-15
10) DePaul 1-17

You think we'll get in with 11 non-con wins, a 9-9 conference record, and a loss to Butler at MSG, and an RPI of 86? I'd be curious how many teams got an at-large bid with an RPI of 86 or lower. My guess is somewhere between zero and none. And even if we go 10-8, our RPI is looking at 69-71. Again, how many teams ever got in with an RPI that low?

At some point, the numbers are just too bad to be ignored. And this is all assuming current conditions, if LSU and Wisconsin continue to freefall and become sub-100 RPI teams, those wins matter less. What if Belmont finishes middle of the OVC and is a sub-100 team?

There are way too many variables to assume 11 wins and 5th place in the league gets us in. 23 wins gets us in, 22 gets us on the bubble, 21 or less and we'll be able to enjoy another home game at the BC this year. Nothing wrong with any of that.

If we go 9-9 in the BE, we don't deserve to get in.

As I said earlier, if we deserve to be in the tournament it will be because we are a good team and we played like a good team. If we go 0-8 against 4 BE teams ahead of us and 10-0 against the 5 teams below us, we would not deserve in nay way to get in with a 10-8 record. Not in the real world.

MU is growing and getting better each game. That is what we want. If it continues, we will be in the tournament - not because of RPI, but because we are a good team and we beat good teams in the conference..

[brandx]

50% of our RPI calc projects to be fairly hosed. It's a tall order to get to the tourney this year.

**IF** all games go 'as they should' as of today, PLUS we 'upset', say... Butler and Xavier at the BC, that puts MU in the *conversation*, likely still with work to do in the BET. [assumes 21-10 (10-8) record before conf tourney]

Sorry, but you don't know how each game "should go". This is a young, improving team. It is not a finished product and the expectation is that young, talented players who are well-coached will improve.

Your expectation is that we will only beat the 4 worst teams in the conference and hope to get 2 wins against the other 5 teams. If that is the case, there is no way we deserve to go no matter how the numbers are spun.

[Jay Bee]

Sorry, but you don't know how each game "should go". This is a young, improving team. It is not a finished product and the expectation is that young, talented players who are well-coached will improve.

Your expectation is that we will only beat the 4 worst teams in the conference and hope to get 2 wins against the other 5 teams. If that is the case, there is no way we deserve to go no matter how the numbers are spun.

That's not my expectation. You're completely making things up.

Read my post again.. I said:

"**IF** all games go 'as they should' as of today, PLUS we 'upset', say"

If a stress on the 's and asterisks.

Nonetheless, it's a TALL HILL TO CLIMB to make the tourney.

-------------------
By the way, on the commentary on various systems and measurements.. they are all fine, you just need to understand their flaws and limitations. For example, kenpom is a PREDICTIVE system, yet doesn't know when guys are not going to play because of injury, suspension, etc.. it's very inflexible.

Vegas is going to beat that (even though people love to cry about the 'it's about $ that people will bet on the line') because they use real-time intelligence.

[mu03eng]

Sorry, but you don't know how each game "should go". This is a young, improving team. It is not a finished product and the expectation is that young, talented players who are well-coached will improve.

Your expectation is that we will only beat the 4 worst teams in the conference and hope to get 2 wins against the other 5 teams. If that is the case, there is no way we deserve to go no matter how the numbers are spun.

I'm over the non-con, but what you are saying is not true *if* all of our 300+ RPI buy games were actually 250-300 RPI buy games.  Our RPI improves by at least 20 points which at 10-8 and a single BEast tourney win allows us to "be deserving".  I get why the schedule is what it is but it now leaves no leeway.  To be fair, with the non-con, unless we went 12-1 we were going to have to get a 11-7 in conference to be eligible by the numbers.

[Benny B]

RPI is so utterly dumb to look at right now. We're currently at #151 per CBS' RPI ranking.

#150 is Western Kentucky (5-4) with wins over Stony Brook, Eastern Kentucky, Indiana State and Central Michigan; losses to Belmont, Duquesne, Drake and Xavier.

Teams ahead of us: [Decided just to post the link because there are so many historically, jaw-droppingly bad teams ahead of us]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/nitty-gritty-report

ZOMG... at least someone gets it.  Projecting RPI at this juncture is like tossing a bottle into the ocean and projecting where it's going to run ashore within 5 feet. 

ARKANSAS-FREAKIN-LITTLE-ROCK is #7 in the RPI right now; you know, the NCAA and other outlets didn't use to start releasing RPI until mid-January until a few years ago... I suppose this goes to show that one should never underestimate sports-obsessed morons' the general public's demand for useless statistics and false indicators/predictors.

RPI is too volatile until conference teams start playing each other... that's when numbers start to smooth out and become more meaningful.