RPI

[ChicosBailBonds]

I know, lots of you don't like it.  End of the day, it is created by the NCAA and the NCAA is going to use what they create.  Dan Guerrero has told me this personally, he was head of the selection committee.  Doug Elgin, a friend of mine, also has been a head of the committee.  How much it is used, it dependent on each committee member and the value they see in it.

So, with that out of the way so we can avoid the bitching about its flaws, how much it is used, etc.

Here's where we stand.

Today, 134.
Forecast season end, 105.
Probability to finish 22-9....4.31%
Probability to finish 20-11....16.46%

Out of Conference SOS....expected to finish around 321st....Horrific, but not surprising we loaded up with cupcakes this year
Total SOS...expected to finish around 100.

Still pretty early for the RPI, but this will solidify more in next 30 days or so.

The way I see it (JayBee, chime in), pretty obvious statement, can't lose at home moving forward.  Maybe, we allow one loss, but need to defend home court badly.  That brings a Gtown, Xavier, Butler win with it.  Absolutely cannot stub our toe against the Hall or DePaul, like we have over the years.  RPI today says we should split Creighton...we need to find a way to sweep Creighton.  So on and so forth.

Peace

[rocky_warrior]

with that out of the way so we can avoid the bitching about its flaws, how much it is used, etc.

Here's where we stand.

Today, 134.
Forecast season end, 105.
Probability to finish 22-9....4.31%
Probability to finish 20-11....16.46%

Out of Conference SOS....expected to finish around 321st....Horrific, but not surprising we loaded up with cupcakes this year
Total SOS...expected to finish around 100.

Well, you're not gonna stop people from complaining about the RPI calculation.  BUT, as bad as RPI can be for measuring strength of teams, it's even WORSE trying to use it to predict Ws and Ls.  And you should know that.

But, I think we all agree, we need to get lots of Ws this year to make up for our horrible SOS.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Well, you're not gonna stop people from complaining about the RPI calculation.  BUT, as bad as RPI can be for measuring strength of teams, it's even WORSE trying to use it to predict Ws and Ls.  And you should know that.

But, I think we all agree, we need to get lots of Ws this year to make up for our horrible SOS.

Every system has its flaws.

KenPom rewards efficiency that artificially inflates the values of some teams, like Wisconsin...who is currently 39th.  Seton Hall 60th.  Ohio State ranked ahead of us.  For the record, RPI has some of those same conclusions. My point is more about the bitching can go on forever, but the NCAA created the system and they are going to use the system they created.


And yes, I agree it is not a good system to use to predict wins and losses.

[BM1090]

Every system has its flaws.

KenPom rewards efficiency that artificially inflates the values of some teams, like Wisconsin...who is currently 39th.  Seton Hall 60th.  Ohio State ranked ahead of us.  For the record, RPI has some of those same conclusions. My point is more about the bitching can go on forever, but the NCAA created the system and they are going to use the system they created.

The win over Wisconsin is huge. Assuming we don't slip up the rest of non conference, 11-7 would put us on the 50s and pretty safe  via RPI Wizard

[jsglow]

Well, you're not gonna stop people from complaining about the RPI calculation.  BUT, as bad as RPI can be for measuring strength of teams, it's even WORSE trying to use it to predict Ws and Ls.  And you should know that.

But, I think we all agree, we need to get lots of Ws this year to make up for our horrible SOS.

I think that's the key.  I'm not focused on RPI at all right now.  Basketball is played on the court, not on some computer.  We play well, beat more than our share of the teams, and we'll dance.  Two more practice games to fine tune what we're trying to build and then a very important opening game against the Hall.

[Mods, Delete me please. 8/26/2020]

The win over Wisconsin is huge.

Wisconsin is 6-5 with losses at home to WIU and Milwaukee.   It's not huge at all.   

[MU82]

Just keep effen winnin'!

Go Warriors!!!

[brewcity77]

I think that's the key.  I'm not focused on RPI at all right now.  Basketball is played on the court, not on some computer.  We play well, beat more than our share of the teams, and we'll dance.  Two more practice games to fine tune what we're trying to build and then a very important opening game against the Hall.

Everything will be determined on the court, and I've thought all along that all the computer projections are underselling us.

I have felt all along we are an 11-12 win team in league. Our play in the last three quality games has been encouraging, but damn our league is good this year. I do look forward to watching this team grow and compete against the likes of Xavier, Villanova, Butler, Providence, and Georgetown.

[UticaBusBarn]

I know, lots of you don't like it.  End of the day, it is created by the NCAA and the NCAA is going to use what they create.  Dan Guerrero has told me this personally, he was head of the selection committee.  Doug Elgin, a friend of mine, also has been a head of the committee.  How much it is used, it dependent on each committee member and the value they see in it.

So, with that out of the way so we can avoid the bitching about its flaws, how much it is used, etc.






"End of day it (RIP) it is (was) created by the NCAA and the NCAA is going to use it ... How much it is used, it (is) dependent on each committee member and the value they see in it."

It was created by the NCAA, but each committee member can use it as he, or she sees fit? Seems to be a contradictory statement. Is RIP mandatory, or is it to be applied in a discretionary manner?

Thank you.

[Pakuni]

Wisconsin is 6-5 with losses at home to WIU and Milwaukee.   It's not huge at all.

At the end of the year, it's going to be a road win vs a top 100 RPI opponent.
Not huge, but helpful.

[esotericmindguy]

Every system has its flaws.

KenPom rewards efficiency that artificially inflates the values of some teams, like Wisconsin...who is currently 39th.  Seton Hall 60th.  Ohio State ranked ahead of us.  For the record, RPI has some of those same conclusions. My point is more about the bitching can go on forever, but the NCAA created the system and they are going to use the system they created.


And yes, I agree it is not a good system to use to predict wins and losses.

KenPom is the best system to use for predicting wins and losses. Just ask Las Vegas sports books. The lines are within a point of KenPom's predictions 90% of the time. I'm not counting OSU or UW out, it's early. Both well coached teams, just need shots to fall. Wisconsin had 20 more shots than Marquette yesterday. I'll take Wisconsin 9 out of 10 with that scenario. There's a reason they were 7.5 point favorites (KenPom predicting a 8 point win for UW).

He has Marquette at 8-10 in conference. However, he does have Marquette at 8-6 heading into the last 4 games.

I think KenPom's ranking of 71 is much more accurate than RPI's 134. Also, don't underestimate the power of a star player, it is a business after all. If Henry continues to evolve, the committee will give Marquette the tie breaker for having a lottery pick.

[ChicosBailBonds]

KenPom is the best system to use for predicting wins and losses. Just ask Las Vegas sports books. The lines are within a point of KenPom's predictions 90% of the time. I'm not counting OSU or UW out, it's early. Both well coached teams, just need shots to fall. Wisconsin had 20 more shots than Marquette yesterday. I'll take Wisconsin 9 out of 10 with that scenario. There's a reason they were 7.5 point favorites (KenPom predicting a 8 point win for UW).

He has Marquette at 8-10 in conference. However, he does have Marquette at 8-6 heading into the last 4 games.

I think KenPom's ranking of 71 is much more accurate than RPI's 134. Also, don't underestimate the power of a star player, it is a business after all. If Henry continues to evolve, the committee will give Marquette the tie breaker for having a lottery pick.

If I recall, Sagarin was even better at predicting wins and losses.  No question both are better than the RPI for that purpose.

As for the 71 vs the 134.  Hard to say.  We still haven't beaten a really good team.  LSU, ASU, UW...quite frankly...none are what I would call NCAA calibre teams right now.  So it's hard to say where we are.  The one absolute NCAA team we have played this year....smoked us. 

[Windyplayer]

Wisconsin is 6-5 with losses at home to WIU and Milwaukee.   It's not huge at all.

Rival, historically good (especially at home), and with a W at Cuse this year. It's a big win.

THOUGH, I was shocked that the Johnnies beat Cuse today. Maybe both UW and Cuse were grossly overrated this year.

[Eldon]

Every system has its flaws.

KenPom rewards efficiency that artificially inflates the values of some teams, like Wisconsin...who is currently 39th.  Seton Hall 60th.  Ohio State ranked ahead of us.  For the record, RPI has some of those same conclusions. My point is more about the bitching can go on forever, but the NCAA created the system and they are going to use the system they created.


And yes, I agree it is not a good system to use to predict wins and losses.

+100

It's inherent.  Trying to boil down all that information into one measure will inevitably leave something out (or weight something too low relative to something else).  Usefulness vs accuracy trade-off.

[brewcity77]

KenPom is the best system to use for predicting wins and losses. Just ask Las Vegas sports books. The lines are within a point of KenPom's predictions 90% of the time.

I'm pretty sure Pomeroy had an article a year or two back about how Vegas is more accurate than his system is. It may be the best season-long system, but on gameday, Vegas does a better job.

[BM1090]

Wisconsin is 6-5 with losses at home to WIU and Milwaukee.   It's not huge at all.

From an RPI perspective and with our non conference schedule, a road win over a likely top 100 RPI team is huge. For our tournament chances, it's huge.

As far as actual on court performance? Nah. It's not a great team that we beat. But if the tournament is the goal, this is a win that increases our chances substantially

[bilsu]

Does the RPI start out with predetermined rankings and then get switched to only actual results at some point? What I am referring to is the teams are ranked before the season actually starts. That could explain part of the reason UW is ranked so high. UW started out around 17th and has slowly been moving down. The rankings could cange a lot, if the preseason bias is removed.

[ChuckyChip]

He has Marquette at 8-10 in conference. However, he does have Marquette at 8-6 heading into the last 4 games.

Pomeroy has us 5-3 in conference before losing seven of the last ten.  Obviously those last ten Big East games will be critical.

[GGGG]

And I think it is entirely possible that, with a young team, Marquette is significantly better heading into those last ten games. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

Does the RPI start out with predetermined rankings and then get switched to only actual results at some point? What I am referring to is the teams are ranked before the season actually starts. That could explain part of the reason UW is ranked so high. UW started out around 17th and has slowly been moving down. The rankings could cange a lot, if the preseason bias is removed.

It resets each year, everyone starts out equal.

[MuMark]

It resets each year, everyone starts out equal.

Pomeroy is the 1 that makes some preseason assumptions that eventually go away.

[brandx]

I think that's the key.  I'm not focused on RPI at all right now.  Basketball is played on the court, not on some computer.  We play well, beat more than our share of the teams, and we'll dance.  Two more practice games to fine tune what we're trying to build and then a very important opening game against the Hall.

Same here, Glow.

I don't care about RPI. If we win enough and deserve to be in the Dance, we will be there.

Projections mean nothing at this point.

[ecompt]

Projections don't take into account how young this team is and how it should be much better in February than it is now. How can anyone project how good Haanif or Traci will be? Or how many big scorers Sandy will shut down? No way to tell.

[Tugg Speedman]

Here is our detail

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/269

LSU RPI now 210!

[Coleman]

Win the rest of the cupcakes and go 11-7 in the big east and we're dancing. They aren't leaving out a 21-9 team from one of the best conferences in the country.

It's not that complex.