Henry Draft Stock Article - ESPN

[The Lens]

Chad Ford has nice piece on Power Forwards in the 2016 Draft.  Henry is ranked 2nd in the Class for PF (7th overall for NBA prospects).   

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14056095/croatia-dragan-bender-marquette-henry-ellenson-top-power-forward-prospects-rankings-nba-draft-2016

If you're not a subscriber here's the Henry text:

Ellenson broke his hand in March, robbing him of the opportunity to show off his game to scouts at the McDonald's All American Game and the Nike Hoop Summit. Otherwise he would be more front of mind in NBA circles.

He's the rare big man with such a complete offensive package: great athletic ability, the strength to dominate in the post, the shooting ability to stretch the floor and terrific ballhandling skills. He dominated in a four-game trip to Italy for Marquette in August, averaging 21 points and 7.5 rebounds. In other words, he can be an instant impact player.

Concerns about his defense abound. And there were conditioning questions until he slimmed down during the past year to a svelte 228. Overall, he's the closest thing we've seen to Kevin Love since Love.

"He's the most underrated kid in this draft class," one NBA scout said. "His game and his body have improved so much the past year. Offensively, there isn't anything this kid can't do.

"He's a bit of a defensive liability right now, but there's no reason he has to be. He's got great mobility and long arms. He just needs to learn how to play on that end, too. I think he'll pick it up on that end with time. I wouldn't be surprised if you have him in your top five in June."

[wadesworld]

He gowne.

[Celtic Truth]

I heard from a good source recently that Henry is loving his time here at MU and that this source feels good about Henry staying(80%). He said that at the beginning of the year he felt it was more like 50%. I think Henry gets along great with his teammates and he is really close with Wally. I just don't think that he will leave his boys brhind after this year. I think that after this year the team will be very optimistic about next year and they will have unfinished business. If I was a betting man I would bet on him staying, but I obviously won't be shocked if he turns pro following this season

[The Lens]

I heard from a good source recently that Henry is loving his time here at MU and that this source feels good about Henry staying(80%). He said that at the beginning of the year he felt it was more like 50%. I think Henry gets along great with his teammates and he is really close with Wally. I just don't think that he will leave his boys brhind after this year. I think that after this year the team will be very optimistic about next year and they will have unfinished business. If I was a betting man I would bet on him staying, but I obviously won't be shocked if he turns pro following this season

He likes college? 

[Skatastrophy]

I heard from a good source recently that Henry is loving his time here at MU and that this source feels good about Henry staying(80%). He said that at the beginning of the year he felt it was more like 50%. I think Henry gets along great with his teammates and he is really close with Wally. I just don't think that he will leave his boys brhind after this year. I think that after this year the team will be very optimistic about next year and they will have unfinished business. If I was a betting man I would bet on him staying, but I obviously won't be shocked if he turns pro following this season

If he is projected as a top 5 pick at the end of the season, it would be a downright poor decision for him to stay at MU.

[MU82]

I am in the "possibly 2 years" camp.

But if he really gets the vibe that he will be top 5, it will be VERY difficult to stay.

Then again, at this time a few years ago Harrison Barnes was a top-3 draft prospect before he laced 'em up for UNC. Stuff happens.

I hope Henry is as incredible this season as many believe he will be. I hope he leads us into the second weekend of the NCAAs. And then I hope he has a tough decision to make.

If he goes, he goes. But even that won't be all bad for Wojo because it will show a 1-and-done talent can come to MU, prosper, and be a top-5 pick.

It's all good!

The only thing that might not be good are the 3 or 4 new posts every week on this topic!!

[dgies9156]

I heard from a good source recently that Henry is loving his time here at MU and that this source feels good about Henry staying(80%). He said that at the beginning of the year he felt it was more like 50%. I think Henry gets along great with his teammates and he is really close with Wally. I just don't think that he will leave his boys behind after this year. I think that after this year the team will be very optimistic about next year and they will have unfinished business. If I was a betting man I would bet on him staying, but I obviously won't be shocked if he turns pro following this season

With all due respect to our tradition, we're not a one-and-done school!

For that reason alone, I believe Henry is more than a one-and-done player. If he was one-and-donehe would not have gone to Marquette with a brand new coach and unknown system. He would have gone to Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, Duke, Maryland or maybe Florida. These are known powers with known capability to showcase the very best.

I'm looking forward to two or even three years! Unless we screw up along the way!

[wadesworld]

With all due respect to our tradition, we're not a one-and-done school!

For that reason alone, I believe Henry is more than a one-and-done player. If he was one-and-donehe would not have gone to Marquette with a brand new coach and unknown system. He would have gone to Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, Duke, Maryland or maybe Florida. These are known powers with known capability to showcase the very best.

I'm looking forward to two or even three years! Unless we screw up along the way!

No.

[GGGG]

If Henry is projected as a top five pick, and he sticks around for his second year, he's not thinking clearly.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If Henry is projected as a top five pick, and he sticks around for his second year, he's not thinking clearly.

No, he would be thinking just fine. Money is not the main motivator for everyone. If the kid wants to play another year with his brother or just loves college that much than more power to him.

[GGGG]

No, he would be thinking just fine. Money is not the main motivator for everyone. If the kid wants to play another year with his brother or just loves college that much than more power to him.

I am struggling to come up with someone who actually did that as a projected top five pick.

[NYWarrior]

I am struggling to come up with someone who actually did that as a projected top five pick.

Marcus Smart .... Chad Ford had him at #2 for the 2013 draft but he stuck around

http://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/2013/4/10/4207848/2013-nba-mock-draft-marcus-smart-orlando-magic

[GGGG]

Marcus Smart was pretty close after his freshman season, Chad Ford had him at #2

http://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/2013/4/10/4207848/2013-nba-mock-draft-marcus-smart-orlando-magic

OK.  You got me.

[The Lens]

Marcus Smart and Blake Griffin are the two best examples of guys who lived up the hype on the court and stayed. 

Unfortunately we are not in Oklahoma.

Forget money, I would think Henry would want to compete against the very best.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Yea, Marcus Smart is probably the best example. His stock took a hit too the next season.

[MU82]

Blake Griffin has been offered up as an example numerous times. Huge hype -- much more than Henry. Incredible physical specimen. But he stayed in college a second year.

Marcus Smart, as others just said (and have said before).

In this thread, I offered Harrison Barnes, who at this point in their respective careers was higher ranked than Henry.

Kyle Singler was higher-ranked coming out of high school and ended up playing FOUR years at Duke.

Years back, obviously, Tim Duncan. It was unusual to come out after one year back then, but not all that unusual to come out after two and certainly not after three -- especially given that he would have been the No. 1 overall pick. But he stayed for four.

I can't remember which thread it was, but there were plenty of other examples.

Stuff happens. Right now, all this is a bunch of chatter.

For some folks, money isn't the primary driver, especially when a person can convince himself that the money still will be there a year later and especially when that person's family isn't hurting financially.

I don't think Henry would be stupid at all to stay if he wanted to stay. Nor do I think he would be stupid to go if he ended up getting drafted later than he had been led to believe. It's his life. He should do what makes him happy.

[warriorchick]

I think the best chance we have of Henry staying for his sophomore year is if he believes we can make a very deep NCAA tournament run in 2017.

From what I gather, he was deeply disappointed when he had to sit out of his HS state championship game because of his injury.  He will never have the opportunity to do that again, just like he will never have the opportunity to play in the Final Four if he is a one-and-done (I'm assuming we only make it to the Elite Eight this year  ). And with the added bonus of doing it along side his brother - I can see it.

[Skatastrophy]

Yea, Marcus Smart is probably the best example. His stock took a hit too the next season.

As it should. It speaks to his decision making ability.

[Chili]

OK.  You got me.

Not hoops but Andrew Luck would have been the #1 overall pick but still stayed another year.

[79Warrior]

No, he would be thinking just fine. Money is not the main motivator for everyone. If the kid wants to play another year with his brother or just loves college that much than more power to him.

Disagree. Take the money and run if he ends up that high.

[Brewtown Andy]

As far as "taking the money" goes, there is the issue with the NBA's collective bargaining agreement, as there's an opt-out for both sides after the 16-17 season.  A 2017-18 rookie deal might end up being worth more than a deal that's in it's second year during the same season.

[wadesworld]

As far as "taking the money" goes, there is the issue with the NBA's collective bargaining agreement, as there's an opt-out for both sides after the 16-17 season.  A 2017-18 rookie deal might end up being worth more than a deal that's in it's second year during the same season.

This has been discussed before. The rookie wages will stay the same.

Not to mention, a player's rookie contract is not where a player makes his money. It's his second contract and beyond. The quicker a player gets to that, the more money he makes in his career.

If he stayed, he'd make $0.00 next year ('16-'17) and then make maybe an extra $200K for the next 2 years ('16-'18, '18-'19) assuming his draft stock goes slightly up (not a whole lot of room to go up when you're already a top 10 pick). Then in '19-'20, he'd continue with his "small" rookie contract instead of being able to cash in big time. That could be a net negative of about $17M.

So by staying, you lose out on, say, $2M next year, gain back $400K the following 2 years, and then lose out on maybe $17M the 3rd year. So, if you want to take the money and run, you absolutely leave college ASAP.

[naginiF]

Disagree. Take the money and run if he ends up that high.

That's exactly what I'd do to.

However, I'm sure we all know people who have made decisions we scratch our heads at: the super talented manager that quit to work at a non profit, the doctor who stopped practicing medicine to get a law degree, the kid who wanted to try his own thing instead of working at the family business, etc., etc.

Hopefully he'll do what makes him happy and not what he feels pressured, either way, to do.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

I am struggling to come up with someone who actually did that as a projected top five pick.

I'm pretty sure Noah was considered a potential #1 pick when he decided to stay at Florida to go for another title. 

[LA]

I think the Blake Griffin comparison is best. Everyone knew the talent was there, but still suggested things for him to work on. He also wanted to play with his brother Taylor in his senior year, and the family wasn't hurting.

I could see Henry staying to chase a deep run especially considering Luke and Duane will be talented upper classmen, and to finish out Wally's career.