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Author Topic: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)  (Read 73522 times)

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #75 on: December 03, 2015, 03:54:07 PM »
Who are the former McDonald's execs that started Chipotle and Smashburger?

Smashburger founder (one of them) is Tom Ryan, in 2007.  He was he was Executive Officer, Worldwide Chief Concept Officer for McDonald's Corporation.  Read he handed MCD the idea for Smashburger and they did not think it would fly.  Bad call, really bad call!

Steve Ells founded Chiptole in 1993.  In 1998 MCD began as an investor in it.  MCD sold its ownership in 2006 thinking the concept had peaked.   Split adjusted CMG was $22 when MCD sold out.  Today it is $565.  CMG is up 1,120% since 2006.  MCD is up 226% over the same period.  Bad call, really bad call!

The MCD suits are too entrenched, too uncreative and too bureaucratic to get out of their own way.  They have loads of brilliant people they employ ... that they do not listen too.  These brilliant people leave and Chipolte and Smashburger are created without MCD. 

ESPN is the same in their industry.


MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #76 on: December 04, 2015, 07:17:05 AM »
Who are the former McDonald's execs that started Chipotle and Smashburger?

I thought Smashburger was founded by the Mohegan Sun Casino here in Connecticut as a source of non-gambling revenue?

Benny B

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #77 on: December 04, 2015, 01:51:39 PM »
I thought Smashburger was founded by the Mohegan Sun Casino here in Connecticut as a source of non-gambling revenue?

I thought they were going to buy the Turnpike and turn it back into a toll road... if they did, I wonder if they'd refund the toll at Exit 79A 9.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #78 on: December 04, 2015, 09:07:58 PM »
Since you started it.......anyone that blames Obama for 2008 are as clueless as those that blame Bush for 9/11.

I have always thought Chicos is too close to the story.  It happens, same as tech execs were in 2001.  We all saw the changes happening but the crash was deeper than anyone anticipated.  Same may happen to ESPN.  If they make the right moves they can pull it out.

I've been on both sides of the table of this the last three years.  On the distributors side as a MVPD, as an OTT player (think HBO Now, Netflix), etc.   Look, I think eventually things go there, but the problem I continue to have with these gloom and doom scenarios is the timelines are insanely wrong. 

It's all about inflection points.  For HBO, it made sense because they were an a la carte anyway on all MVPDs.  In other words, you bought the service not part of the basic package.  For ESPN, they get enormous revenue from people buying a package that could care less about ESPN.  For them to equal that revenue, they would have to charge a pretty penny to go a la carte and plus they have MFN deals working against them that doesn't allow them to do it right now.

Eventually?  Sure....but that inflection point is some time away.


brandx

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #79 on: December 04, 2015, 09:23:29 PM »
Since you started it.......anyone that blames Obama for 2008 are as clueless as those that blame Bush for 9/11.

I have always thought Chicos is too close to the story.  It happens, same as tech execs were in 2001.  We all saw the changes happening but the crash was deeper than anyone anticipated.  Same may happen to ESPN.  If they make the right moves they can pull it out.

Excuse me... but get a clue?

Bush was president in 2008.  How could Obama be blamed for the crash when he wasn't even elected before he was even elected?


Bush was also president during 9/11.

ChitownSpaceForRent

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #80 on: December 04, 2015, 09:47:08 PM »
Excuse me... but get a clue?

Bush was president in 2008.  How could Obama be blamed for the crash when he wasn't even elected before he was even elected?

You miss read the semantics brand.
Bush was also president during 9/11.

brandx

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #81 on: December 04, 2015, 09:53:41 PM »


No - my point was that Obama was not president when either of those things happened. So why would anyone other than the "re-writing history" crowd blame Obama for happenings on Bush's watch.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #82 on: December 13, 2015, 07:11:06 PM »
As a Disney stockholder and former Disney employee  (Mouseschwitz is what we used to call it), I'm not worried one iota.

They beat earnings, they were short on revenue.  Sure the stock will get hit, but just wait until Star Wars next quarter and some of the pipeline content.

Put another way, I'm buying Disney today.

If it grosses less than $2 billion, Disney is in trouble.  More than $2.5 billion and Disney does well.  In between is a mixed bag.

Star Wars opens Friday (Dec 18).  Yes the lines will be around the block, everyone knows this.  Grossing at least $2 billion or bust.

Disney paid $4 billion for the franchise and $250 million to make the movie.  So it has to gross north of $2 billion (making it one of the top five movies ever, highest ever was Avatar at $2.7b)

Good luck to Disney

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #83 on: December 13, 2015, 07:26:41 PM »
If it grosses less than $2 billion, Disney is in trouble.  More than $2.5 billion and Disney does well.  In between is a mixed bag.

Star Wars opens Friday (Dec 18).  Yes the lines will be around the block, everyone knows this.  Grossing at least $2 billion or bust.

Disney paid $4 billion for the franchise and $250 million to make the movie.  So it has to gross north of $2 billion (making it one of the top five movies ever, highest ever was Avatar at $2.7b)

Good luck to Disney

Respectfully disagree.  The franchise can be milked for decades.  The gift that keeps on giving.  This is not a one movie situation.  They are already in production on the next one and will continue to make them into the future.  Star Wars land is being built right now at Disneyland, so on and so forth.  The merchandising dollars they are going to make on this thing are insane.  With Target, Chevy, etc.

But just for giggles, some are expecting them to make close to $5 billion.....on merchandise alone...for just this movie.

http://theconversation.com/how-disney-will-make-us-5-billion-from-star-wars-7-merchandise-47506

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/star-wars-merchandise-sales-could-819004

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/11/the-force-awakens-sales/417642/



ChicosBailBonds

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MU82

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #85 on: December 13, 2015, 10:49:42 PM »
I agree with Chicos. DIS is a great long-term, buy-and-hold company. Star Wars will be huge for them for decades.

I am hoping that the Fed will raise rates this week and give me one more shot at DIS under 100. I got greedy a few months ago and tried to wait for a chance at 90, but got burned.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #86 on: December 16, 2015, 10:59:28 AM »
Signaling the end of linear TV?

ESPN's Dilemma in Mobile Age Where Fans See Clips All Day
December 16, 2015 — 10:38 AM CST

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-16/espn-s-dilemma-in-mobile-age-where-fans-can-watch-clips-all-day

 *   SportsCenter' retools to target fans on the move, night owls
 *  Competition erodes audience at most-watched cable TV network

When Holly Holm delivered her vicious knockout against UFC champion Ronda Rousey last month, the highlight seemed perfect for ESPN’s “SportsCenter.”

Yet by the time the sports network’s flagship news program showed images of the fight, many had already seen the clip on Reddit and commented on Twitter.

That’s the dilemma for ESPN and “SportsCenter,” the news and highlights show the network introduced to pay-TV audiences 35 years ago. While ESPN remains the dominant sports outlet on TV and the Web, and the single biggest profit contributor at Walt Disney Co., competition is eating into its audience. To adapt, the company is reinventing “SportsCenter” for mobile viewing and online sharing, adding new late and early morning editions.

“Our producers have spent a lot of time working with our talent to really think about which audience we’re seeing through the course of the day,” Rob King, ESPN’s senior vice president for news, said in an interview. The show “is still relevant and meaningful to people. It’s a matter of where they are and how they consume it.”

One big change is set for February, when ESPN introduces a 7 a.m. edition of “SportsCenter.” The network will try to attract viewers on their way to school or work by encouraging them to watch on mobile devices, King said.

In September, Scott Van Pelt took over as anchor of a new late edition of “SportsCenter.” Van Pelt can compete with talk-show hosts like Jimmy Fallon and Jimmy Kimmel, King said, and his show is experimenting with new segments, including one that shows highlights of plays that would be of keen interest to bettors. A recent ad urging fans to “end your day on a highlight” included a spot with a college student watching late at night on his tablet from the roof of a frat house.
Media Meltdown

Disney itself cast a light on the troubles at ESPN in August when the company cut its profit outlook, citing a drop in the homes that get the sports network. The announcement renewed investor concerns that consumers are dropping or cutting back on pay-TV services and sent media stocks tumbling.

ESPN’s ratings are another sign of the changes rattling the TV industry.



Live editions of “SportsCenter” are down 10 percent this year in total viewers, according to ESPN, while the Sunday pregame show “NFL Countdown” is down 13 percent. Overall, viewership has fallen 10 percent in 2015, though network executives say that’s really 4 percent excluding World Cup and NASCAR events that didn’t air this year.
Same Pressures


“ESPN is so valuable because they have the most valuable live sports content,” said Liam Boluk, a media strategist at Jason Hirschhorn’s REDEF. “But the rest of their programming is under the same pressures as the rest of the industry.”

Meanwhile, audiences are growing at the Fox Sports 1 and NBCSN, which are up 14 percent and 25 percent in prime-time, respectively, though both networks draw only a fraction of ESPN’s viewers, according to Nielsen data. For NFL games this season, ESPN’s ratings are down 3 percent while two broadcast networks, NBC and CBS, have gained, according to data supplied by the programmers. ESPN says that’s largely because it has aired one fewer Monday Night Football matchup.

Bristol, Connecticut-based ESPN has been in a belt-tightening mode. In October, the network eliminated about 300 positions worldwide. Over the past year, it has parted with several prominent personalities, including Keith Olbermann and Bill Simmons, who says the number of people canceling pay-TV service caught ESPN by surprise.

“I don’t think they ever saw it coming. I really don’t,” Simmons said on his podcast last month. “They didn’t have a plan for this whole next generation of stuff.”

An ESPN spokeswoman said Simmons wasn’t privy to internal conversations about the company’s future.

Live Sports

ESPN’s abundance of live sports has helped it stay on top of the cable TV landscape. It’s the No. 1 cable network and its “Monday Night Football” telecasts outdraw all other networks on that night. The network also commands the highest monthly rate from pay-TV services, at $6.64, according to SNL Kagan. And not all of its talk shows are down. “Mike & Mike,” a radio show simulcast on ESPN2, is up 16 percent in viewers, the company said.

In prime time, which is dominated by live sports, ESPN’s audience is up slightly over the past two years, “which is great in today’s TV world,” according to Artie Bulgrin, the network’s senior vice president of global research.

“Our relative advantage in the marketplace is stronger than it has been in a long, long time,” Bulgrin said in an interview. “When everything can be time-shifted, live sports is going to win.”

ESPN executives say they are prepared for the changing TV landscape and are faring better than some entertainment-oriented channels. The network’s digital audience, which isn’t counted in the ratings, is growing, with the WatchESPN app adding 1.5 percent to ESPN’s “Monday Night Football” audience.

Earlier this month, the network unveiled live streaming on its main app, making it easier to alert mobile viewers “when something great is happening on ‘SportsCenter,’” King said.

Advertisers are following ESPN’s audience online as well. Amplifi, a division of the ad agency Dentsu Aegis Network that handles media buying for Microsoft Corp., General Motors Co. and Home Depot Inc., has shifted some spending to ESPN’s digital channels, according to Andy Donchin, chief U.S. investment officer.

“If you want to reach men, it’s kind of hard not to buy ESPN,” Donchin said. “They dominate the sports marketplace. They used to be the 800-pound gorilla. Now they’re the 795-pound gorilla.”
« Last Edit: December 16, 2015, 11:01:38 AM by Heisenberg »

brandx

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #87 on: December 16, 2015, 11:36:41 AM »
Signaling the end of linear TV?



I wrote about this happening over a year ago

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #88 on: December 16, 2015, 10:27:25 PM »
Part of the answer is them finally getting serious about piracy, sharing, etc.  The fun is just getting started in that area.  Oh the bitching from the millenials when they are hammered with fines.  Reminds of the days back when Napster and others got hit, individuals having to pay massive fines and all the complaining "it's just songs".  No different than going into a story and stealing a sweater.

Going to be fun to watch.

MUsoxfan

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #89 on: December 16, 2015, 11:06:10 PM »
Part of the answer is them finally getting serious about piracy, sharing, etc.  The fun is just getting started in that area.  Oh the bitching from the millenials when they are hammered with fines.  Reminds of the days back when Napster and others got hit, individuals having to pay massive fines and all the complaining "it's just songs".  No different than going into a story and stealing a sweater.

Going to be fun to watch.

True. But won't the piracy technology most likely always be a step ahead of the law?

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #90 on: December 16, 2015, 11:24:41 PM »
True. But won't the piracy technology most likely always be a step ahead of the law?

You impose harsh enough fines you can curb all kinds of behavior.  All of our cars are capable of going 100mph, but how many of us actually go that fast? The technology is there.  Just a matter of the will to do it.

They need to cut simultaneous streams to one, match logins to devices paired.  They have pixel tracking capabilities to know exactly who is stealing what, they just haven't decided to go after these folks. 

Oh the fun that will ensue.


jesmu84

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #91 on: December 17, 2015, 12:02:16 AM »
You impose harsh enough fines you can curb all kinds of behavior. All of our cars are capable of going 100mph, but how many of us actually go that fast? The technology is there.  Just a matter of the will to do it.

They need to cut simultaneous streams to one, match logins to devices paired.  They have pixel tracking capabilities to know exactly who is stealing what, they just haven't decided to go after these folks. 

Oh the fun that will ensue.

I wish we'd take that same kind of attitude towards wall street, fraud, corruption, etc.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #92 on: December 18, 2015, 09:43:32 AM »
This morning Rich Greenfield of the brokerage firm BTIG downgraded Disney to a Sell with a target of $90.  Dis down 3% to $108

@RichBTIG 37m
#FadeTheForce -- Even The Force Cannot Protect ESPN -- Downgrading Disney to SELL, $90 PT 

http://www.btigresearch.com/2015/12/18/even-the-force-cannot-protect-espn-downgrading-disney-to-sell-with-90-price-target/

He think Star Wars does $2.6 billion in box office (higher than the Wall Street expectation) so he arguing that ESPN is going to be a huge drag on Disney.

ESPN is the death star of Disney (his words).
« Last Edit: December 18, 2015, 09:46:34 AM by Heisenberg »

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #93 on: December 18, 2015, 09:52:35 AM »
I wish we'd take that same kind of attitude towards wall street, fraud, corruption, etc.

Me too....Obama promised.....

Same for gov'ts, unions, etc.


ChicosBailBonds

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #94 on: December 18, 2015, 09:52:59 AM »
Star Wars shatters opening preview night beating Harry Potter.....printing money

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #95 on: December 18, 2015, 10:02:25 AM »

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #96 on: December 18, 2015, 10:22:17 AM »
Yes Fandango has broken all sales records BEFORE the movie even opened!

‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ Breaks Fandango’s All-Time Ticketing Record; MovieTickets Sales Still Soaring


http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-the-force-awakens-ticket-record-fandango-1201668739/


But Disney's stock is down 3% today to $108 (down on the downgrade noted above).  Star Wars is no longer a story for Disney's stock.  Everyone knows it going to sell billions of tickets and the stock is still stuck at $108.  Wall Street looks forward and see a mega record movie and it is not moving the stock higher.

Why?  ESPN is a big big problem.  They are 45% of Disney's earnings and Wall Street thinks ESPN is "done"

It seems everyone gets this except people that live in Bristol CT.


Tugg Speedman

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #97 on: December 21, 2015, 10:15:47 AM »
Disney's stock getting smashed again today, under $106

The market knows that Star Wars is going to blow away every movie record ever.  But it's not good enough.  The "death star" of ESPN and its massive over-payment for sports right is too much for even the highest grossing film in human history to overcome.

The sports bubble is popping.  Thank god the Big East has nine more years on its FS1 contract.

-------------

ESPN and Disney's other media networks are the company's largest sales and profit contributor, accounting for 44% of revenues and 54% of income. And within the segment, cable networks account for 72% of sales and 87% operating income. 
« Last Edit: December 21, 2015, 10:19:43 AM by Heisenberg »

brandx

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #98 on: December 21, 2015, 01:15:59 PM »


The sports bubble is popping.  Thank god the Big East has nine more years on its FS1 contract.

 

If the bubble bursts, the contracts aren't worth the paper they are printed on.

MU82

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #99 on: December 21, 2015, 01:35:55 PM »
Disney's stock getting smashed again today, under $106

The market knows that Star Wars is going to blow away every movie record ever.  But it's not good enough.  The "death star" of ESPN and its massive over-payment for sports right is too much for even the highest grossing film in human history to overcome.

The sports bubble is popping.  Thank god the Big East has nine more years on its FS1 contract.

-------------

ESPN and Disney's other media networks are the company's largest sales and profit contributor, accounting for 44% of revenues and 54% of income. And within the segment, cable networks account for 72% of sales and 87% operating income.

I caution you against making long-term proclamations based upon short-term market movements.

If you truly think Disney is doomed, you should be mortgaging your house and selling everything you own to short the stock big-time. Then you'll be rich, rich, rich and you can laugh at the millions of pitiful Disney shareholders.

BTW, I do not own DIS. But I will be a buyer if it drifts under 100 again, and maybe even before that.
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