Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)

[Tugg Speedman]

They aren't going to pull back very far when Netflix pays as much as $750,000 per episode for streaming rights.

And if the networks want to stack shows for bing-watching via Video on Demand, then Netflix lowers their fees for those shows accordingly.

In the long run, though, Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime will find a way to work with the networks. They will find a way for all sides to maximize profits.

Despite all of CBB's protestations that Netflix was in trouble, they are the driver here.

Netflix will double its output of original shows to 31 next year

http://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-will-produce-31-original-shows-in-2016-2015-12

Netflix’s head of content, Ted Sarandos said on Monday that Netflix will basically double its output of original shows next year, according to Broadcasting & Cable. Sarandos revealed that Netflix will produce 31 scripted shows next year, up from 16 this year. Netflix also has the following in the pipeline, according to Sarandos: 10 feature films, 30 kids shows, 12 documentaries, and 10 stand-up specials.

Are they producing more stuff than Disney/ABC?  What about the quality?

Streaming titans Amazon and Netflix win big at 2015 Emmys
 
http://www.dailydot.com/entertainment/emmys-2015-winners-amazon-netflix/

Netflix and Amazon both marked their territory at the 67th Annual Emmy Awards Sunday, with the streaming titans bringing home five combined, high-profile statues.

It was a banner year for Web-based prestige TV, with 46 nominations between them for shows like Transparent, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, House of Cards, and Orange Is the New Black. Netflix's 34 nominations led the pack, and Amazon garnered the remaining 12.

How many did Disney/ABC get?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Wall Street is all about what the dividend growth rate will be in coming years, not the last five years.

And the dividend growth rate in the coming years looks very good, including two payments a year, not an annualized dividend like years in the past.

Incidentally, ONE analyst is saying sell.  Everyone else, buy, outperform or hold.

http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Forecasts?s=DIS:NYQ

[Tugg Speedman]

And the dividend growth rate in the coming years looks very good, including two payments a year, not an annualized dividend like years in the past.

Incidentally, ONE analyst is saying sell.  Everyone else, buy, outperform or hold.

http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Forecasts?s=DIS:NYQ

And they all said that when the stock was $120 in August, two week later it was $90.

90% of all analyst always have buys on stocks, even in the market panic of 2008 they were all saying buy too.

[brandx]

Netflix will double its output of original shows to 31 next year

And most are high quality shows - as the Emmy noms indicate. Prime is also upping the ante in that direction as well. The standup comedy shows and dcumentaries are also outstanding.

The original movies thus far? I'll pass on any Adam Sandler schlock.

[MU82]

And they all said that when the stock was $120 in August, two week later it was $90.

90% of all analyst always have buys on stocks, even in the market panic of 2008 they were all saying buy too.

But you knew differently in 2008, and you know differently today! That's why they call you The Sage of Wall Street.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Netflix will double its output of original shows to 31 next year

http://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-will-produce-31-original-shows-in-2016-2015-12

Netflix’s head of content, Ted Sarandos said on Monday that Netflix will basically double its output of original shows next year, according to Broadcasting & Cable. Sarandos revealed that Netflix will produce 31 scripted shows next year, up from 16 this year. Netflix also has the following in the pipeline, according to Sarandos: 10 feature films, 30 kids shows, 12 documentaries, and 10 stand-up specials.

Are they producing more stuff than Disney/ABC?  What about the quality?

Streaming titans Amazon and Netflix win big at 2015 Emmys
 
http://www.dailydot.com/entertainment/emmys-2015-winners-amazon-netflix/

Netflix and Amazon both marked their territory at the 67th Annual Emmy Awards Sunday, with the streaming titans bringing home five combined, high-profile statues.

It was a banner year for Web-based prestige TV, with 46 nominations between them for shows like Transparent, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, House of Cards, and Orange Is the New Black. Netflix's 34 nominations led the pack, and Amazon garnered the remaining 12.

How many did Disney/ABC get?

A few things.

I have two former Netflix employees on my staff, one former Hulu employee.  The dirty little secret is no one watches their originals...well no one is not correct, but not many.

Netflix barely makes a profit, they spend a ton of money, and that's why they barely make a profit.  Hulu has YET to be profitable...EVER.  Amazon Prime...if it were its own P&L...has NEVER made a profit. 

People just don't get it, but I don't blame them because they aren't in the industry and they don't understand the industry.  Is Netflix a player?  Of course, because they throw money around and studios are trying to monetize.  However, what some of the studios are finally realizing (and I and others said this would happen at least 4 years ago), they have traded digital dollars for digital dimes.  It's hurting their bottom numbers.  So they are pulling back, because they have no choice. 

I'm still a Netflix stockholder, though it is irrational.  They have a market cap of $55 billion on only $6 billion in revenue and $300 million in profit.  Tiny laughable.  Let me give a comparison, Time Warner has the same market cap of around $50 billion, but on $24 billion in revenue.  Fox, very similar, on $27 billion in revenue.  Netflix is so crazy over valued, but as long as the market is irrational then I'll hang on to it.  I have my sell puts in place.  Not one for the long haul for me as pricing pressures continue to hit them, growth is slowing, their SAC costs have exploded in the last 12 months. 

Everyone is getting into the game they used to be mostly alone in and barely made any money to begin with, but the difference now is you have huge companies getting in to preserve ecosystem revenues.

http://investorplace.com/2015/11/netflix-stock-gearing-another-epic-collapse-nflx/#.VoNehxUrIdV

[brandx]

A few things.

I have two former Netflix employees on my staff, one former Hulu employee.  The dirty little secret is no one watches their originals...well no one is not correct, but not many.

Netflix barely makes a profit, they spend a ton of money, and that's why they barely make a profit.  Hulu has YET to be profitable...EVER.  Amazon Prime...if it were its own P&L...has NEVER made a profit. 

ESPN finally made a profit in its 9th year.

Amazon finally made a profit in its 10 year.

For tesla, it was its 11th year.

For Turner Broadcasting, it took 21 years.

Some would have only seen deficiencies in these companies.

[brewcity77]

I have two former Netflix employees on my staff, one former Hulu employee.  The dirty little secret is no one watches their originals...well no one is not correct, but not many.

How many people watched Arliss? How many watched Sex and the City or The Sopranos in the late 1990s? In those days, most people viewed HBO series as novelty shows. The bulk of their programming was movies 24/7. Slowly, the word got around. By the end of its run, Sopranos was near must-watch television (and probably still had far lower ratings than Game of Thrones or True Detective). The same went for Weeds and Dexter when Showtime first started to seriously venture into original programming.

Netflix has really only been doing original programming about 2-3 years. House of Cards and Lilyhammer were the first ones I heard about as being worth watching (still haven't seen Lilyhammer), but it amazes me how many people are talking about Orange is the New Black, Daredevil, Jessica Jones, Making a Murderer, and Bloodline. For Netflix, this is what original programming was on HBO about 15 years ago. Of course no one was watching, but that doesn't mean viewers weren't coming.

If Netflix and Prime continue winning awards and getting the water cooler talk, people will watch. Maybe Making a Murderer is an exception here in Wisconsin because of the local nature of the story, but it's truly amazing how many people are talking about it. I haven't had a day in the past week where someone didn't talk about it unsolicited, and most people I talk to have already binge watched the entire thing.

Maybe not many are watching, but the broadcast model for shows has changed radically since HBO transitioned from movies to original programming as their primary draw, and I've no doubt in 10 years, Netflix will still be going strong with continued quality and vastly more viewers. Wouldn't surprise me to see some of their shows make it to syndication as well.

[ChicosBailBonds]

How many people watched Arliss? How many watched Sex and the City or The Sopranos in the late 1990s? In those days, most people viewed HBO series as novelty shows. The bulk of their programming was movies 24/7. Slowly, the word got around. By the end of its run, Sopranos was near must-watch television (and probably still had far lower ratings than Game of Thrones or True Detective). The same went for Weeds and Dexter when Showtime first started to seriously venture into original programming.

Netflix has really only been doing original programming about 2-3 years. House of Cards and Lilyhammer were the first ones I heard about as being worth watching (still haven't seen Lilyhammer), but it amazes me how many people are talking about Orange is the New Black, Daredevil, Jessica Jones, Making a Murderer, and Bloodline. For Netflix, this is what original programming was on HBO about 15 years ago. Of course no one was watching, but that doesn't mean viewers weren't coming.

If Netflix and Prime continue winning awards and getting the water cooler talk, people will watch. Maybe Making a Murderer is an exception here in Wisconsin because of the local nature of the story, but it's truly amazing how many people are talking about it. I haven't had a day in the past week where someone didn't talk about it unsolicited, and most people I talk to have already binge watched the entire thing.

Maybe not many are watching, but the broadcast model for shows has changed radically since HBO transitioned from movies to original programming as their primary draw, and I've no doubt in 10 years, Netflix will still be going strong with continued quality and vastly more viewers. Wouldn't surprise me to see some of their shows make it to syndication as well.

Absolutely correct on HBO.  I ran their business for DIRECTV for 6 years, and the viewership of their originals was often low, nowhere close to the movies product.  My point is, people talk about the originals, but few people watch them.  And yes, that is why they are doing it. 

The big difference, however, is HBO is massively profitable, while Netflix is barely profitable.  That is a MASSIVE difference.

[brandx]

Absolutely correct on HBO.  I ran their business for DIRECTV for 6 years, and the viewership of their originals was often low, nowhere close to the movies product.  My point is, people talk about the originals, but few people watch them.  And yes, that is why they are doing it. 

The big difference, however, is HBO is massively profitable, while Netflix is barely profitable.  That is a MASSIVE difference.

HBO has been running original programming for over 20 years. Netflix for less than 5 years.

There is a MASSIVE difference in how long the companies have been around.

[brewcity77]

HBO has been running original programming for over 20 years. Netflix for less than 5 years.

There is a MASSIVE difference in how long the companies have been around.

Exactly. Beyond that, HBO has been available as a premium service for 43 years with 20 years of original content. Netflix started out as a DVD delivery service 18 years ago and did that almost exclusively for the better part of a decade. They have been offering streaming for less than 10 years and original programming for less than 5.

Comparing the two is somewhat silly because for the most part, HBO has been offering the same type of service for over 40 years, while Netflix almost completely shifted their business model and has been offering this same type of service for 8 years.

Netflix may not be profitable now, but if they keep winning awards and earning viewers by word of mouth, then eventually, just like HBO they'll have the audience that follows. It's blatantly obvious that streaming is going to be the future of media delivery. I have to imagine anyone inside or outside the industry can see that. They are at the forefront of the streaming market with the best original content. That will certainly pay off in the long run.

[Tugg Speedman]

Exactly. Beyond that, HBO has been available as a premium service for 43 years with 20 years of original content. Netflix started out as a DVD delivery service 18 years ago and did that almost exclusively for the better part of a decade. They have been offering streaming for less than 10 years and original programming for less than 5.

Comparing the two is somewhat silly because for the most part, HBO has been offering the same type of service for over 40 years, while Netflix almost completely shifted their business model and has been offering this same type of service for 8 years.

Netflix may not be profitable now, but if they keep winning awards and earning viewers by word of mouth, then eventually, just like HBO they'll have the audience that follows. It's blatantly obvious that streaming is going to be the future of media delivery. I have to imagine anyone inside or outside the industry can see that. They are at the forefront of the streaming market with the best original content. That will certainly pay off in the long run.

5 years of Netflix stock below (black bars).  The stock has gone from $5 to $120.  How can this be?  They are losing money or barely profitable! 

Wall Street looks forward, current profitability is looking backwards.  Investors care about the future, not the past.

Wall Street believes in their business model and that is why they have gone up 20 fold in the last five years.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Going back and reading some of the comments in this thread and similar ones. 

It's amazing that a "broken model" brings in more money than 99.99% of businesses in the United States.  Industries would be killing for this broken model.  LOL.

[77ncaachamps]

Going back and reading some of the comments in this thread and similar ones. 

It's amazing that a "broken model" brings in more money than 99.99% of businesses in the United States.  Industries would be killing for this broken model.  LOL.

Timing is everything.

[ChicosBailBonds]

5 years of Netflix stock below (black bars).  The stock has gone from $5 to $120.  How can this be?  They are losing money or barely profitable! 

Wall Street looks forward, current profitability is looking backwards.  Investors care about the future, not the past.

Wall Street believes in their business model and that is why they have gone up 20 fold in the last five years.

No one here said it couldn't happen, of course it can.  They're betting on a dream, we'll see it comes through.  Amazon has only had one profitable quarter in years.  Now, having said that, it means if the dream takes a few hits, you're in serious trouble because there is no real dollars to prop you up.

I have Netflix stock and have owned it since Feb of 2013, but I have puts when to sell it because they are totally dependent on subscriber growth.  They're largely at that ceiling in the US, which means massive expenditures globally to continue to drive subscriber growth to fuel and pay for their $6.8 billion content costs.  Thus, paltry profits.  Hopefully they keep it going, works fine by me for my portfolio.  If they don't, then I'll have made my money and done just fine.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Timing is everything.

It can be, so can very good business plans, sharp people, some luck, and tremendous amount of hard work.

Of course, none of these are guarantees of anything either.

[brewcity77]

Called DTV yesterday and was able to save $25 on my bill, so my costs will go down instead of going up, mainly because I called Time-Warner first and they offered me the same thing for about $44 per month less. If my wife wasn't so adamantly against TWC, I'd probably be switching.

[mu_hilltopper]

I found this article interesting .. written from the "future" of 2026 about how TV is delivered.

http://consumerist.com/2016/01/04/a-message-from-the-year-2026-about-the-future-of-your-tv/

[Tugg Speedman]

I found this article interesting .. written from the "future" of 2026 about how TV is delivered.

http://consumerist.com/2016/01/04/a-message-from-the-year-2026-about-the-future-of-your-tv/

Good read, good find

[Tugg Speedman]

Sigh


"Despite the mounting worries about ESPN, though, most investors see the diversity of Disney's business units as a big plus. Analysts, on average, think Disney could be worth $119 a share in 18 months, which would be 13% upside from the current price"

Disney briefly traded under $100 today.  Down 15% since Star Wars was released.

The movie release is turning out to be a great sell signal.

[mu-rara]

Called DTV yesterday and was able to save $25 on my bill, so my costs will go down instead of going up, mainly because I called Time-Warner first and they offered me the same thing for about $44 per month less. If my wife wasn't so adamantly against TWC, I'd probably be switching.

Why would you let her have a say in a man's decision

[brandx]

Why would you let her have a say in a man's decision

Exactly. Her job is to cheer for whatever he decides.

I'm sure Chick does that with Glow

[mu_hilltopper]

Interesting article ..

https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20160114/06532833339/56-would-drop-espn-heartbeat-if-it-meant-saving-8-month-cable.shtml

Wish we'd pass a law .. no quoting of anything in monthly periods.

$8 a month is squat.  If they phrased it $96/year, that 56% would be 86%.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Interesting article ..

https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20160114/06532833339/56-would-drop-espn-heartbeat-if-it-meant-saving-8-month-cable.shtml

Wish we'd pass a law .. no quoting of anything in monthly periods.

$8 a month is squat.  If they phrased it $96/year, that 56% would be 86%.

What law would you like passed?

[mu_hilltopper]

Somewhat halfhearted here, but .. I think we can all agree that average America's financial acumen isn't high. 

Imagine the cable or phone industry, if they had to quote prices in annual numbers.   Your cable bill isn't $135, it's $1,620.  That's real money.

Your kid wants a cell phone?  You gripe about a $60/month fee but you say hell no to $720 a year.

Everything is affordable if you boil it down to a daily figure, eh. 

For just $25 a day, you too can drive a Jaguar!  That's pennies a minute!  You can find that in your couch.