2015 Non-conference Schedule

[chapman]

I think losing or even beating a division II game would end up costing you, if you are one of the bubble teams. It may not figure in the  RPI, but when  you are being compared to other bubble teams for the final few spots it is going to be noticed by the committee.

A DII game isn't going to be noticed by the committee, because they aren't even to consider it.  Doesn't count in the RPI, doesn't count in the SOS, doesn't count in the W/L for tournament consideration/seeding. 

So is a 20-11 record with one more win against Grambling better than a 19-11 record to the committee?  I really doubt it.  The "blind resume" would look exactly the same in terms of quality wins, conference record, quality wins and bad losses.  Except the 19-11 team would show an RPI ~9 spots higher and an SOS up to 20 spots higher, which will look far more appealing than one more win that's buried out of the quality wins or conference win metrics.

[Litehouse]

Your second point, yup.  And again, our schedule is not going to be what keeps us out of the tournament.  If we're a good enough team, we'll get in.  If not, we won't.

This is where I disagree with your argument.  The past few years of the "soft bubble", there are probably about 20 teams in bubble territory that are all pretty close.  The teams that are good enough to get in are not much different than those that don't.  A lot of craziness takes place as a college basketball season unfolds, and your non-conference schedule is one of the few things you have control over.  People have already shown that being more selective in the cupcakes you schedule can improve your RPI by about 30 points, which can make a huge difference when fighting with all the other similar teams on the bubble.  Coaches usually do everything possible to get a slight edge over the competition.  However, scheduling like this is only handicapping our chances of getting in the tournament or getting a better seed.

[hoyasincebirth]

...and Georgetown went to the NCAA tournament last year, and returns a much higher percentage of their team, and doesn't pay rent in their professional stadium because an alum owns it...

I wish that last part were true. Georgetown does pay rent for our stadium and I doubt we even get a better deal than Marquette does. Just because leonsis is an alum doesn't mean he's not a businessman first and foremost.

yes we have different teams so it's not entirely fair to say Georgetown has a great schedule so Marquette should too. But I never bought the logic of piling up wins against nobody to build confidence. That was fine back when JTjr was running things and RPI wasn't a huge part of the selection process, but it is now and there are consequences. I don't buy money as an issue for the schedule because as I said Georgetown has the same restrictions if not more. So it's clear that these games were scheduled either because they want a bunch of easy wins and no competition or because they're scared of playing a harder schedule.

[MU Buff]

This isn't a money issue. Wojo wants to build this young team's confidence up before conference play starts. I'm not saying I agree with it but that's the reason. Not money, scheduling conflicts, etc.

[The Equalizer]

This is where I disagree with your argument.  The past few years of the "soft bubble", there are probably about 20 teams in bubble territory that are all pretty close.  The teams that are good enough to get in are not much different than those that don't.  A lot of craziness takes place as a college basketball season unfolds, and your non-conference schedule is one of the few things you have control over.  People have already shown that being more selective in the cupcakes you schedule can improve your RPI by about 30 points, which can make a huge difference when fighting with all the other similar teams on the bubble. Coaches usually do everything possible to get a slight edge over the competition.  However, scheduling like this is only handicapping our chances of getting in the tournament or getting a better seed.

Where do you find any evidence to support this?

I look at the field last year and see this:

Indiana, LSU, Ole Miss, and Purdue had poor RPIs relative to the bubble, for the most part didn't bother to avoid bad cupcakes (each except Ole Miss had at least 4 or 5 250+ ranked non-conf opponents), and yet they all still got in.

Colorado State, ODU, Tulsa, and Iona had good RPIs relative to the bubble, largely avoided cupcakes (collectively had 4 250+ non-conf opponents), and none of them got in.

You'd be able to make the highlighted point if CSU, Iona, Temple and ODU were in, while Ole MIss, IU, Purdue and LSU missed the tourney.

If RPI made a "huge difference", wouldn't CSU be in the tourney ahead of Indiana?  Wouldn't Iona be in ahead of Purdue?  You can easily find 8 teams that go counter to the conventional wisdom that cupcakes make a "huge difference" come NCAA tournament time.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Where do you find any evidence to support this?

I look at the field last year and see this:

Indiana, LSU, Ole Miss, and Purdue had poor RPIs relative to the bubble, for the most part didn't bother to avoid bad cupcakes (each except Ole Miss had at least 4 or 5 250+ ranked non-conf opponents), and yet they all still got in.

Colorado State, ODU, Tulsa, and Iona had good RPIs relative to the bubble, largely avoided cupcakes (collectively had 4 250+ non-conf opponents), and none of them got in.

You'd be able to make the highlighted point if CSU, Iona, Temple and ODU were in, while Ole MIss, IU, Purdue and LSU missed the tourney.

If RPI made a "huge difference", wouldn't CSU be in the tourney ahead of Indiana?  Wouldn't Iona be in ahead of Purdue?  You can easily find 8 teams that go counter to the conventional wisdom that cupcakes make a "huge difference" come NCAA tournament time.

I think it is pretty obvious that your examples have more to do with conference affiliation than strength of cupcakes.  Just by nature of playing in much tougher conferences, Indiana, LSU, Ole Miss and Purdue had much more difficult schedules that CSU, Iona and ODU.

[Galway Eagle]

I think it is pretty obvious that your examples have more to do with conference affiliation than strength of cupcakes.  Just by nature of playing in much tougher conferences, Indiana, LSU, Ole Miss and Purdue had much more difficult schedules that CSU, Iona and ODU.

So then if the big east is as strong (or actually even a big less strong) as last year then we should be fine since it's about conference affiliation

[mu03eng]

So then if the big east is as strong (or actually even a big less strong) as last year then we should be fine since it's about conference affiliation

Assuming we can go at leat 10-8 in said conference perhaps....but we're afraid of a 250 RPI team at our house in December, what makes you think we can finish 10-8 in the big east?

[Galway Eagle]

Assuming we can go at leat 10-8 in said conference perhaps....but we're afraid of a 250 RPI team at our house in December, what makes you think we can finish 10-8 in the big east?

Well mostly the fact that December isn't January, or february or March makes me pretty convinced.  We'll have a fairly unheralded freshman playing point guard, I have no doubt he'll adapt or the three big time players will carry the team but it'll take some time to figure that system out against 250 RPI teams. 

Sweeps Creighton, St Johns, and Depaul/Seton Hall gets us 6.  Split Butler, Depaul/seton hall whichever we don't sweep and xavier gets us 9.  That's one win away for us against Providence Georgetown or Nova.

[fjm]

I get where Wojo is coming from on playing a different schedule this year for experience... but either way, I think this picture speaks for many of the STH's when it comes to Wojo right now... (Also my favorite Wojo pic for when we screw something up! And I love Wojo so far, so it hasn't been too frequently!)

[The Equalizer]

I think it is pretty obvious that your examples have more to do with conference affiliation than strength of cupcakes.  Just by nature of playing in much tougher conferences, Indiana, LSU, Ole Miss and Purdue had much more difficult schedules that CSU, Iona and ODU.

This is exactly the point.

People keep trying to make the case that RPI from cupcakes makes a huge difference.  Reality is that conference affiliation and conference performance easily outweigh any cupcake-driven negative RPI impact.

Based on their B1G performance, Indiana deserved about a 10 seed.  Their five 300+ cupcakes didn't affect that one bit. It didn't knock them out of the tournament.  It didn't reduce their seed.  Ditto with each of the other teams mentioned.  And it happens both ways.  CSU avoided 300+ cupcakes and improved their RPI rank to 29.  Didn't matter--they weren't in because they didn't win enough conference games despite playing in a weak conference.  Boosting non-conference cupcake strength did nothing for them.

[drewm88]

Your second point, yup.  And again, our schedule is not going to be what keeps us out of the tournament.  If we're a good enough team, we'll get in.  If not, we won't.  Which means butts will be in the seats if we're in, and butts won't if we're not.  Not because of a tough schedule or not, but because we're a good team or a bad team.

Your last point, I never made any kind of choice, so I'm not sure what you're getting at there.

Lighthouse has already responded to the beginning of this, so I'll leave it at that.

You said, "Winning 20-25 games a year against awful competition will do much more for selling tickets than losing 20 games a year but playing a top 35 strength of schedule.  There is absolutely, positively no doubt about that in my mind whatsoever." That suggests there are two choices--playing awful competition and winning or playing great competition and losing. It ignores the gigantic middle ground of mediocrity where we should be picking up relatively easy (but not ridiculously easy) wins over teams with RPI's around 200.

[dbwarriors]

Worst schedule ever.  You want respect, you need to earn it.

[Jay Bee]

The opposition's RPI doesn't directly affect our RPI and their RPI last season certainly doesn't do a thing to this season's RPI.

That said, you want to be playing relatively weak teams that will at least pick up some wins in their conference and not have a horrendous W-L record. That will play out.

Need to analyze the individual opponents for a projected Win-Loss in 2014-15... that's the key.

Certainly it looks like it'll project to something ugly for many of these teams.. but need to do that work.

[Pakuni]

Worst schedule ever.  You want respect, you need to earn it.

Which team ever earned respect by beating 200 RPI teams in December?
Were you impressed by DePaul last December because they beat UWM (207), Drake (269) and UIC (297)?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Assuming we can go at leat 10-8 in said conference perhaps....but we're afraid of a 250 RPI team at our house in December, what makes you think we can finish 10-8 in the big east?

That's a good question. I personally don't expect us to go 10-8 in the Big East. I don't think we will be near the tournament at all. I know it's not what people want to hear but unless several players exceed reasonable expectations then we won't be dancing this year. The NIT could even be a reach. We are scheduling cupcakes so we can feel good about winning some games. 2016-2017 is the year we should be excited about.

I hope I am wrong but stats say we won't be very good.

[dbwarriors]

Which team ever earned respect by beating 200 RPI teams in December?
Were you impressed by DePaul last December because they beat UWM (207), Drake (269) and UIC (297)?

What are you talking about? I never mentioned DePaul.

[bilsu]

A DII game isn't going to be noticed by the committee, because they aren't even to consider it.  Doesn't count in the RPI, doesn't count in the SOS, doesn't count in the W/L for tournament consideration/seeding. 

So is a 20-11 record with one more win against Grambling better than a 19-11 record to the committee?  I really doubt it.  The "blind resume" would look exactly the same in terms of quality wins, conference record, quality wins and bad losses.  Except the 19-11 team would show an RPI ~9 spots higher and an SOS up to 20 spots higher, which will look far more appealing than one more win that's buried out of the quality wins or conference win metrics.

I disagree with your counter argument. The selection is not made by computer. It is made by human beings, who at this point are looking for a reason to vote for the last team to get in or a reason to not vote for a team. The fact that you scheduled a division 2 team is a negative.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

This is exactly the point.

People keep trying to make the case that RPI from cupcakes makes a huge difference.  Reality is that conference affiliation and conference performance easily outweigh any cupcake-driven negative RPI impact.

Based on their B1G performance, Indiana deserved about a 10 seed.  Their five 300+ cupcakes didn't affect that one bit. It didn't knock them out of the tournament.  It didn't reduce their seed.  Ditto with each of the other teams mentioned.  And it happens both ways.  CSU avoided 300+ cupcakes and improved their RPI rank to 29.  Didn't matter--they weren't in because they didn't win enough conference games despite playing in a weak conference.  Boosting non-conference cupcake strength did nothing for them.

Right. The other point that you're seemingly dismissing is that MU isn't doing itself any favors scheduling the worst of the worst. I think everyone here after discussing it for a day or two agrees that this team needs some early cupcakes this season.

The difficult thing with the schedule is that most of the early nonconference games are actually against the better teams MU will play in the nonconference season (sans Wisconsin). The overall point is that if MU scheduled teams with RPIs in the 200s rather than teams with RPIs in the 300s, by the end of the year, our RPI and SOS would be better no matter how they do in the Big East.

Of course teams that play in power conferences have better strength of schedules by the end of the year than the teams that play in low major conferences. Most simply stated, Marquette has virtually no room for error with this schedule - the numbers that some have ran in this thread exhibit that quite clearly. 

[mu03eng]

Of course teams that play in power conferences have better strength of schedules by the end of the year than the teams that play in low major conferences. Most simply stated, Marquette has virtually no room for error with this schedule - the numbers that some have ran in this thread exhibit that quite clearly.

[chapman]

I disagree with your counter argument. The selection is not made by computer. It is made by human beings, who at this point are looking for a reason to vote for the last team to get in or a reason to not vote for a team. The fact that you scheduled a division 2 team is a negative.

I'd believe in the K-State scrimmage conspiracy before that.  Let me know the next time you hear anyone credible bring up a DII game from November in March.  Or see a game of "blind resume" in which they put an asterisk next to the team to note their record has removed a DII win. 

[bilsu]

Right. The other point that you're seemingly dismissing is that MU isn't doing itself any favors scheduling the worst of the worst. I think everyone here after discussing it for a day or two agrees that this team needs some early cupcakes this season.

The difficult thing with the schedule is that most of the early nonconference games are actually against the better teams MU will play in the nonconference season (sans Wisconsin). The overall point is that if MU scheduled teams with RPIs in the 200s rather than teams with RPIs in the 300s, by the end of the year, our RPI and SOS would be better no matter how they do in the Big East.

Of course teams that play in power conferences have better strength of schedules by the end of the year than the teams that play in low major conferences. Most simply stated, Marquette has virtually no room for error with this schedule - the numbers that some have ran in this thread exhibit that quite clearly.

Scheduling bunnies, which will include teams in the 200's takes away a chance to get a quality win. If you do not have any quality wins or very few quality wins it does not matter whether you play a team ranked 200 or 300. The 200 team is more likely to give you a bad loss. The three hundred ranked teams assuming we will not tlose to one of them will not cost MU a bid. Not winning some games against Belmont, Iowa, LSU, NC ST, UW, Villanova, Georgetown and Providence is what will cost MU a bid. MU needs 4/5 quality wins and no bad losses.

[The Equalizer]

Right. The other point that you're seemingly dismissing is that MU isn't doing itself any favors scheduling the worst of the worst. I think everyone here after discussing it for a day or two agrees that this team needs some early cupcakes this season.

And you're seemingly dismissing the point that MU certainly IS doing themselves some favors, as Wojo himself points out. Its the same view that Kevin O'Neill adopted (look at his non-conference schedule coming off his 11-18 2nd season). The schedule is intended to build confidence, gives Wojo a chance to experiment with lineups, rotations, etc with greatly reduced fear of losing.  And it won't have any impact on the team's NCAA chances or seed if they prove themselves in conference.

The difficult thing with the schedule is that most of the early nonconference games are actually against the better teams MU will play in the nonconference season (sans Wisconsin).

It would be ideal, but there are two constraints beyond our control:

A. Teams can't dictate when tournaments like the Legends or Gavitt are run--TV largely dictates those dates.
B. Most teams want their better games at home when students are on campus. Therefore, mid to late December is when you schedule your cupcakes.

The overall point is that if MU scheduled teams with RPIs in the 200s rather than teams with RPIs in the 300s, by the end of the year, our RPI and SOS would be better no matter how they do in the Big East.

And my response to that is "So what?"  RPI is a factor--but not the only factor, and certainly not the most important factor. People constantly try to make the case that RPI impacts of these cupcakes affects a team's NCAA appearance or seed. 

The 8 examples from the 2015 tournament suggest otherwise.

Of course teams that play in power conferences have better strength of schedules by the end of the year than the teams that play in low major conferences. Most simply stated, Marquette has virtually no room for error with this schedule - the numbers that some have ran in this thread exhibit that quite clearly.

You mean like Indiana last year?  Certainly you'd agree that they had no room for error with their 9-9 B1G record. The question is, do you think that if they had lost one more B1G game, that a higher quality of their cupcakes would ameliorate that?

I don't think anybody on that committee is going to say "Well, I know Indiana was only 8-10 in conference which ordinarily wouldn't be good enough, but, you know, they DID take on #123 Loyola and beat them--therefore, they should be in.  And with at least a 10 seed!  Loyola is *that* good, you know." 

Indiana last year got consideration despite their RPI because they were at least .500 in the Big Ten, warranting a discussion by the committee, which ultimately decided they were deserving. 

 

[mu03eng]

And you're seemingly dismissing the point that MU certainly IS doing themselves some favors, as Wojo himself points out. Its the same view that Kevin O'Neill adopted (look at his non-conference schedule coming off his 11-18 2nd season). The schedule is intended to build confidence, gives Wojo a chance to experiment with lineups, rotations, etc with greatly reduced fear of losing.  And it won't have any impact on the team's NCAA chances or seed if they prove themselves in conference.

It would be ideal, but there are two constraints beyond our control:

A. Teams can't dictate when tournaments like the Legends or Gavitt are run--TV largely dictates those dates.
B. Most teams want their better games at home when students are on campus. Therefore, mid to late December is when you schedule your cupcakes.

And my response to that is "So what?"  RPI is a factor--but not the only factor, and certainly not the most important factor. People constantly try to make the case that RPI impacts of these cupcakes affects a team's NCAA appearance or seed. 

The 8 examples from the 2015 tournament suggest otherwise.

You mean like Indiana last year?  Certainly you'd agree that they had no room for error with their 9-9 B1G record. The question is, do you think that if they had lost one more B1G game, that a higher quality of their cupcakes would ameliorate that?

I don't think anybody on that committee is going to say "Well, I know Indiana was only 8-10 in conference which ordinarily wouldn't be good enough, but, you know, they DID take on #123 Loyola and beat them--therefore, they should be in.  And with at least a 10 seed!  Loyola is *that* good, you know." 

Indiana last year got consideration despite their RPI because they were at least .500 in the Big Ten, warranting a discussion by the committee, which ultimately decided they were deserving. 

You are kind of proving our point by comparing to Indiana and them getting into the tournament,  Yes, they played a couple of 300+ opponents, I have no issue with that.  They did not play 8 300+ opponents.  Indiana's average RPI for opponents in the non-con was 166, MU is projecting to 217 with Wisconsin as an RPI #2.  Our RPI opponent average is almost what some teams have as their lowest RPI for a single opponent in their schedule.

Opponent       RPI
Miss. Valley St     345
Texas Southern  118
SMU                     12
Lamar                 219    
Eastern Wash    75
N.C. Greensboro 309
Pittsburgh    76
Savannah St.    329
Louisville            21
Grand Canyon    274    
Butler            31    
New Orleans    326    
Georgetown    25    


           RPI
Belmont   100
IUPUI   258
Iowa   40
LSU-neutral   65
NC State -neutral   32
Jackson State   317
Grambling St   351
Maine   338
San Jose State   336
@Wisconsin   51
Chicago State   333
Presbyterian   314
Stetson   335


I haven't figured out a way to definitively calculate it, but MU's schedule is so bad that if we had scheduled half of the 8 for 225-275 RPI opponents we could have afforded 2 additional losses in the Big East.  Basically our schedule requires us to go 11-7 to make the tournament.  If we are scared of playing 250 RPI in the non-con how is their anyway we go 11-7 in the vaunted Big East everyone keeps talking about it's great RPI building capability?

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

My first impression of this schedule is a vote of no confidence in the team.  Having four or five 300+ rpi teams is typical of an MU schedule.  (The zero 300+ rpi teams in both 2011-12 and 2012-13 is atypical.)  Having 7 is absurd!  This schedule is basically setup to go 10-3 in non-conf and hope to get 8 wins in BE play plus one in the BE Tourney.  Then hope that 19-14 record is good enough to get into the NIT.  And that might be the best case scenario.

I know the team is young, but even some slightly tougher cupcakes would give me more confidence.  Not that the team can't surprise us.  But I think the schedule is reflective of the expectations the staff has for the team.  A team with high expectations schedules tougher than a team with low expectations.  This year's schedule tells me to have low expectations.