2015 Non-conference Schedule

[bilsu]

There are a lot of reasons for optimism. However, there are just as many reasons or more for not being optimistic.  The top two options at point guard are freshmen. That alone can spell disaster. At this point we have no idea, if our star recruit, will be a foul a minute player like so many freshmen are? How far along is Fischer in recovering from shoulder surgery? Will all the players still be here starting the second semester? Will Duane be healthy the whole year? The talent is there, but a lot of things can go wrong. The discussion should probably center around does the NIT care how many 300+ teams we are playing.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I digress.  Bottom line, the schedule sucks.  I can see one's argument that Wojo wants his guys to get reps against poor competition, but they overdid it if that was the plan. End of story.

[Golden Avalanche]

I think the schedule is fantastic.

Cuse did this for nearly two decades (at least MU is leaving Milwaukee) gambling on their conference performance. Cincinnati under that leprechaun has done so the last half decade to rip roaring success of piling wins in their back pocket.

All hail Wojo's Warriors and I look forward to their 11-2 record entering the home game against Providence on the night before New Year's Day 2016.

[Litehouse]

People keep trying to make the case that RPI from cupcakes makes a huge difference.  Reality is that conference affiliation and conference performance easily outweigh any cupcake-driven negative RPI impact.

Yes, conference matters more, but you don't control your conference schedule, it is what it is.  Your non-conference games are the only thing within your control, so why not use that opportunity to maximize your chances of getting in the tournament.

Based on their B1G performance, Indiana deserved about a 10 seed.  Their five 300+ cupcakes didn't affect that one bit. It didn't knock them out of the tournament.  It didn't reduce their seed.  Ditto with each of the other teams mentioned.  And it happens both ways.  CSU avoided 300+ cupcakes and improved their RPI rank to 29.  Didn't matter--they weren't in because they didn't win enough conference games despite playing in a weak conference.  Boosting non-conference cupcake strength did nothing for them.

The point is that Indiana and CSU were both in the discussion.  A few things break either way for Indiana or CSU and the end results could have been very different.  If Indiana had a better RPI from avoiding the 300+ teams maybe they get a better seed, or if 1 or 2 of their conference games go the other way maybe they're out.  If CSU played some more 300+ games their RPI would be significantly higher and they probably wouldn't have even been in the discussion.  You need to at least get yourself close to have a chance, and playing all these games will hurt our chances.

[wadesworld]

Yes, conference matters more, but you don't control your conference schedule, it is what it is.  Your non-conference games are the only thing within your control, so why not use that opportunity to maximize your chances of getting in the tournament.

The point is that Indiana and CSU were both in the discussion.  A few things break either way for Indiana or CSU and the end results could have been very different.  If Indiana had a better RPI from avoiding the 300+ teams maybe they get a better seed, or if 1 or 2 of their conference games go the other way maybe they're out.  If CSU played some more 300+ games their RPI would be significantly higher and they probably wouldn't have even been in the discussion.  You need to at least get yourself close to have a chance, and playing all these games will hurt our chances.

That's true of any team in the country.  That's the point.  You have to win games against the teams on your schedule, and the most important thing is that you have to beat some quality opponents.  We will have plenty of quality opponents on our schedule.  If IU wins less conference games they're out.  Yup.  Just like if UW won less conference games they would've been out, or Kansas, or Duke, or Kentucky, etc.  They didn't lose those games though, so they were in.  Just like we only won 13 games so we were out, but if we had taken 8 of our losses and turned them into wins, we're in.  It's about winning basketball games.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Whatever the point of this horrific schedule is I think we can all agree that Marquette basketball games are gonna be an absolute snoozefest until January. I wanna see Henry play against the big boys. Not some 6'5" power forward from Stenson.

[Nukem2]

Whatever the point of this horrific schedule is I think we can all agree that Marquette basketball games are gonna be an absolute snoozefest until January. I wanna see Henry play against the big boys. Not some 6'5" power forward from Stenson.

Not totally true.  Belmont and Iowa will be quality home games.  Otherwise, well....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[Litehouse]

That's true of any team in the country.  That's the point.  You have to win games against the teams on your schedule, and the most important thing is that you have to beat some quality opponents.  We will have plenty of quality opponents on our schedule.  If IU wins less conference games they're out.  Yup.  Just like if UW won less conference games they would've been out, or Kansas, or Duke, or Kentucky, etc.  They didn't lose those games though, so they were in.  Just like we only won 13 games so we were out, but if we had taken 8 of our losses and turned them into wins, we're in.  It's about winning basketball games.

But we're giving ourselves a much smaller margin for error with something that is within our control.  I think someone else guessed that we'll have to win 2 more conference games to make up for the RPI hit of all these 300+ RPI games, and that sounds about right.  Go 12-6 in conference and we're in no problem, it's just a question of seeding.  Go 10-8 and we're all really nervous on selection day.

Looking at it the other way, go 10-8 in conference with an RPI at 40 and we're probably in, go 10-8 with an RPI of 70 and we're probably out.

[The Equalizer]

But we're giving ourselves a much smaller margin for error with something that is within our control.  I think someone else guessed that we'll have to win 2 more conference games to make up for the RPI hit of all these 300+ RPI games, and that sounds about right.  Go 12-6 in conference and we're in no problem, it's just a question of seeding.  Go 10-8 and we're all really nervous on selection day.

Looking at it the other way, go 10-8 in conference with an RPI at 40 and we're probably in, go 10-8 with an RPI of 70 and we're probably out.

Depends on what else goes with that 10-8.

Lose all five games to Belmont, Iowa, LSU, ASU/NCState and Wisconsin, plus lose in the first round of the BET, plus no wins against the 1st 2nd or 3rd place teams in the Big East standings, then we're not going. Not because of a low RPI, but because our body of work simply doesn't reflect being worthy of a bid.

On the other hand, if we sweep Belmont, Iowa, LSU, ASU/NCState and Wisconsin, plus win 2 in the BET, plus the 10 conference wins includes a couple against the contenders like Villanova and Georgetown, then 10-8 is not only going to get us in, we're in with a favorable seed.

Or we do something in the middle--10-8 with 2 or 3 quality non-conference wins, and 1-1 in the BET.  And we know what that profile looks like--Indiana in 2015 (actually Indiana was only 9-9 and not 10-8). And we know the NCAA does not exclude those teams due to cupcakes.

So it comes down to winning., specifically:

We have to get some quality wins--and at least two of the five non-conference. 
We have to get .500+ in the Big East. 
We have to avoid a first round exit in the BET.

Do those three things, and the cupcakes don't matter.
Don't do those three things, and the cupcakes don't matter.
 

[mu03eng]

Depends on what else goes with that 10-8.

Lose all five games to Belmont, Iowa, LSU, ASU/NCState and Wisconsin, plus lose in the first round of the BET, plus no wins against the 1st 2nd or 3rd place teams in the Big East standings, then we're not going. Not because of a low RPI, but because our body of work simply doesn't reflect being worthy of a bid.

On the other hand, if we sweep Belmont, Iowa, LSU, ASU/NCState and Wisconsin, plus win 2 in the BET, plus the 10 conference wins includes a couple against the contenders like Villanova and Georgetown, then 10-8 is not only going to get us in, we're in with a favorable seed.
This scenario nets us an RPI of ~55 in the country with a record against RPI top 100 of 11-6.  That would put us in, my guess would be a 4 or 5 seed.  But again, do we really think a team that can't schedule a better than 300 RPI team in non-con is going to go 11-6 against top 100 including our 5 very first games.  And if we are capable of beating Belmont, LSU,, etc early in the season why schedule 8 300+ games???

Or we do something in the middle--10-8 with 2 or 3 quality non-conference wins, and 1-1 in the BET.  And we know what that profile looks like--Indiana in 2015 (actually Indiana was only 9-9 and not 10-8). And we know the NCAA does not exclude those teams due to cupcakes.
This actually puts us out more than likely.  Wins over Belmont, LSU and Wisconsin in the non-con and 10-8 in conference gives us an RPI of 0.670 which would have been good for 75th best RPI.  Our record against RPI top 100 would be 9-8.


So it comes down to winning., specifically:

We have to get some quality wins--and at least two of the five non-conference. 
We have to get .500+ in the Big East. 
We have to avoid a first round exit in the BET.

Do those three things, and the cupcakes don't matter.
Don't do those three things, and the cupcakes don't matter.

I ran your specific examples and they prove our point, see bold

[jsglow]

I ran your specific examples and they prove our point, see bold

Thanks for running all the math 03.  I think most of us get that part now.  So why do you think Wojo did this?  I think we can all agree that it was on purpose.  For my dollar, I'm thinking that he feels the need to have some sustained success this year as he continues to build on a multi year plan.  If that means the NIT, he's fine with that.  Think about it.  We have exactly zero kids with NIT/NCAA experience.  Crazy, I know.  Weren't we just in Louisville and Lexington?

[The Equalizer]

I ran your specific examples and they prove our point, see bold

Did you use ASU or NC State in the Legends?
Which two Big East opponents did you use for the BET?

I'm not sure how this proves your point.

The first scenario (losing all five quality non-conference games), I'm assuming the lack of comment reflects that you apparently agree with me that we wouldn't get consideration regardless of our cupcake selection.

In the second scenario, you also apparently agree with me.  A 55 RPI would seemingly equate to a deserved 12 or 13 seed, but even you admit that with the body of work I described would get us a 4 or 5 seed.  Despite the cupcakes.   My answer to your question as to why schedule the 300+ opponents is the same as its been:  Because it doesn't matter.

For the third, I'm curious as to who you chose from the ASU/NC State to include as well as who you picked for the BET games. Plus, a .6700 RPI would have been 2nd in the country, between UK's .6779 and Vilanova's .6686, so there's obviously something wrong there. 

So in at least two of my three scenarios, in reality you agree with me, even though you're stating  disagreement.

And in the third, you rely solely on a calculator, and can only bring yourself to say "more than likely out," not absolutely out.  Which means that a 22-12 (10-8) record and 4th or 5th place Big East team would would be getting discussion from the committee.

So the question is which logic on the committee would prevail.

a) Screw the body of work, the RPI overrides anything else MU actually did.
b) The RPI doesn't accurately reflect MU's body of work so we should compare them in relation to the other teams on the bubble.

I think what you'd have to admit is that my 3rd scenario is a very unique situation.  In similar situations in the past, the committee has been shown to override the RPI and more heavily weight the actual body of work--just like it did to MU's benefit in 2011 when we were ranked 64th.

[bilsu]

I do not really think whether we schedule eight 200-299 or 8 300+ games matters much. What would matter is if we changed some of them to top 100 games.  Besides that in the end the rankings are determined by how a specific team does. One or more of our 300+ games could turn out to be better than 300. On the flip side a young team is almost for sure going to lose to at least one team in an 8 game 200-300 schedule and that would be a very bad loss. Avoiding the bad loss is just as important as getting a quality win. Either way we have to show significant success against our better opponents.

[mu03eng]

Thanks for running all the math 03.  I think most of us get that part now.  So why do you think Wojo did this?  I think we can all agree that it was on purpose.  For my dollar, I'm thinking that he feels the need to have some sustained success this year as he continues to build on a multi year plan.  If that means the NIT, he's fine with that.  Think about it.  We have exactly zero kids with NIT/NCAA experience.  Crazy, I know.  Weren't we just in Louisville and Lexington?

If I look at it objectively I get Wojo's perspective(assuming this wasn't a money thing, which I would have a HUGE issue with) he wants to try and make sure they can have some kind of post season opportunity.  I just think the logic is flawed.  The only significant difference between an RPI 275 and RPI 315 is going to be how the numbers count in a calculation.  I don't see how we can be afraid of an RPI 275 in December but expect to go at least 9-9 in the Big East.

Mostly, I'm reacting so negatively to this because I am disappoint in Wojo.  The only conclusion I can make is that he doesn't believe this team can make the NCAA and he is clearly playing for NIT.  I get it, but this team is suppose to be filled with talent, why are we hedging bets before we even get to the season?  I really don't want to go into yet another year thinking it won't end well....that makes 3 years now.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If I look at it objectively I get Wojo's perspective(assuming this wasn't a money thing, which I would have a HUGE issue with) he wants to try and make sure they can have some kind of post season opportunity.  I just think the logic is flawed.  The only significant difference between an RPI 275 and RPI 315 is going to be how the numbers count in a calculation.  I don't see how we can be afraid of an RPI 275 in December but expect to go at least 9-9 in the Big East.

Mostly, I'm reacting so negatively to this because I am disappoint in Wojo.  The only conclusion I can make is that he doesn't believe this team can make the NCAA and he is clearly playing for NIT.  I get it, but this team is suppose to be filled with talent, why are we hedging bets before we even get to the season?  I really don't want to go into yet another year thinking it won't end well....that makes 3 years now.

I've agreed with you all along here..and I still do.  One minor wrinkle...the RPIs of these teams last year are no guarantee to be their RPI this year.  Stranger things have happened than teams with 300+ RPIs one year moving into the 200s the next year. That said, many of these teams are annually the nation's worst, and most likely won't improve much.

The logic behind the schedule is indeed very flawed. 

[mu03eng]

Did you use ASU or NC State in the Legends?
Which two Big East opponents did you use for the BET?

I'm not sure how this proves your point.

The first scenario (losing all five quality non-conference games), I'm assuming the lack of comment reflects that you apparently agree with me that we wouldn't get consideration regardless of our cupcake selection.
Agreed we would not get in

In the second scenario, you also apparently agree with me.  A 55 RPI would seemingly equate to a deserved 12 or 13 seed, but even you admit that with the body of work I described would get us a 4 or 5 seed.  Despite the cupcakes.   My answer to your question as to why schedule the 300+ opponents is the same as its been:  Because it doesn't matter.
Your right, in the event that we can win all these hard games having 300 vs 200 makes no difference.  Do you think this is even remotely possible?  We may be lucky to start the season 2-3 let alone win all 5 of our first games.  This scenario seems pretty improbable and that still only gets us an RPI of 55

For the third, I'm curious as to who you chose from the ASU/NC State to include as well as who you picked for the BET games. Plus, a .6700 RPI would have been 2nd in the country, between UK's .6779 and Vilanova's .6686, so there's obviously something wrong there.
Typo on my part, I posted what the opponent constant was not RPI.  I used NC State as our loss in the Legends and the RPI at the end of the season would be 0.551 in that scenario.  I haven't added anything for the BET because that gets really speculative.  Additionally, in my calculation its a neutral impact unless you win more games than you lose, 1 loss = 1 win and the difference in quality of opponent balances out to a very minimal net impact

So in at least two of my three scenarios, in reality you agree with me, even though you're stating  disagreement. I'm in agreement in the middle scenario that we get in but its high improbable so not a thing and yes in the first scenario I agree we don't get in.

And in the third, you rely solely on a calculator, and can only bring yourself to say "more than likely out," not absolutely out.  Which means that a 22-12 (10-8) record and 4th or 5th place Big East team would would be getting discussion from the committee.

So the question is which logic on the committee would prevail.

a) Screw the body of work, the RPI overrides anything else MU actually did.
b) The RPI doesn't accurately reflect MU's body of work so we should compare them in relation to the other teams on the bubble.

I think what you'd have to admit is that my 3rd scenario is a very unique situation.  In similar situations in the past, the committee has been shown to override the RPI and more heavily weight the actual body of work--just like it did to MU's benefit in 2011 when we were ranked 64th.

You are absolutely correct this could happen, but that's not my point.  My point is by scheduling the way we did we are more likely than not forced into this very scenario.  If we schedule better we don't have to rely on a bubble decision.  Basically we have a 5% of getting in out right, 50% chance that we're bubble at less than 50/50 we get in and 45% chance we are out all together.  Better schedule shifts it to 10% chance we're in out right, 10% chance we're bubble at better than 50/50, 30% chance we're bubble less than 50/50 and 50% chance we out all together

[mu03eng]

I've agreed with you all along here..and I still do.  One minor wrinkle...the RPIs of these teams last year are no guarantee to be their RPI this year.  Stranger things have happened than teams with 300+ RPIs one year moving into the 200s the next year. That said, many of these teams are annually the nation's worst, and most likely won't improve much.

The logic behind the schedule is indeed very flawed.

This is the only thing that keeps me from totally jumping off the bridge.  We very well could end up with 1 250+, 3 275+ and 4 300+ teams, which would be just fine.  I hope that's how it works out.

I'm too lazy to do the research but I'd be curious to know how many teams that are RPI 315+ one year have been RPI 250-300 the next year

[jsglow]

This is the only thing that keeps me from totally jumping off the bridge.  We very well could end up with 1 250+, 3 275+ and 4 300+ teams, which would be just fine.  I hope that's how it works out.

I'm too lazy to do the research but I'd be curious to know how many teams that are RPI 315+ one year have been RPI 250-300 the next year

03eng, I just think you're getting too worked up about it.  First, we simply can't afford a 'bad loss' and Wojo's plan seemingly prevents it.  Second, our fate will be determined by our ability to generate some good wins, likely at home.  Worry about our home dates with GTown and Butler.  That is what determines the season.  And I think Wojo believes that our chances go up dramatically in those games if he can spend November and December teaching/adjusting coupled with overall general success that helps to build confidence.  I'm sorry that your calculator simply can't measure that.

[mu03eng]

03eng, I just think you're getting too worked up about it.  First, we simply can't afford a 'bad loss' and Wojo's plan seemingly prevents it.  Second, our fate will be determined by our ability to generate some good wins, likely at home.  Worry about our home dates with GTown and Butler.  That is what determines the season.  And I think Wojo believes that our chances go up dramatically in those games if he can spend November and December teaching/adjusting coupled with overall general success that helps to build confidence.  I'm sorry that your calculator simply can't measure that.

Right, like I said, my ultimate issue is what this schedule says about the teams mindset; they are planning to not make the NCAA.  That's where I'm disappointed.

[Brewtown Andy]

I get the argument for having a young team and needing to get them pulling in the same direction.

Would anyone really have a problem with a schedule of these cupcakes:

Navy
Grand Canyon
Samford
Niagara
Campbell
South Alabama
Florida Atlantic

All I did was boost the KenPom ranks of the teams MU is playing 50 spots up the chart, with two exceptions: One of them would have been IUPUI, which is already on the schedule, and another was South Florida, so I went one spot higher to get a lower conference than the AAC.

Teams that finished between 266 & 301 on KenPom last year.  Bad, but not bottom 50 bad.

Not saying WHY AREN'T WE PLAYING NOTRE DAME, just saying it's possible to play *slightly* better teams.

[chapman]

I get the argument for having a young team and needing to get them pulling in the same direction.

Would anyone really have a problem with a schedule of these cupcakes:

Navy
Grand Canyon
Samford
Niagara
Campbell
South Alabama
Florida Atlantic

Too challenging.  We would be unable to work through any early season kinks in execution against this caliber of competition, and it would hurt our young players' fee fees if they only win by 10 points.  Also, heaven forbid they have to deal with losing to a bad team that isn't DePaul we would incur the extra expense of having to fly all their moms to campus to comfort them.

[jsglow]

Right, like I said, my ultimate issue is what this schedule says about the teams mindset; they are planning to not make the NCAA.  That's where I'm disappointed.

I don't want to quarrel with you my friend but I believe that Wojo believes that the schedule as outlined gives him the best chance to get these guys to the NCAA despite the calculated RPI drain precisely because he thinks it'll improve our conference prospects after he's been able to experiment/teach for 2 months. 

I know that I can't get you off the math.  It's okay; I have lots of engineering friends that think the same way.  You can still buy chick and me a beer at the 'craft corner'.  Or perhaps we can come up with a beer bet on this.

[mu03eng]

I don't want to quarrel with you my friend but I believe that Wojo believes that the schedule as outlined gives him the best chance to get these guys to the NCAA despite the calculated RPI drain precisely because he thinks it'll improve our conference prospects after he's been able to experiment/teach for 2 months. 

I know that I can't get you off the math.  It's okay; I have lots of engineering friends that think the same way.  You can still buy chick and me a beer at the 'craft corner'.  Or perhaps we can come up with a beer bet on this.

ooohhh, you have my attention with the beer bet.  What would the terms of such a bet be?

At the same time, I hate to be in the pessimistic role...I'm a nearly eternal optimist so if I "win" the bet I'm gonna have to get drunk to overcome my sad feelings 

[jsglow]

ooohhh, you have my attention with the beer bet.  What would the terms of such a bet be?

At the same time, I hate to be in the pessimistic role...I'm a nearly eternal optimist so if I "win" the bet I'm gonna have to get drunk to overcome my sad feelings 

Maybe non-con record?  Your supposition is that this shows weakness.  Then we'll lose more of the 'big 5' non-con games, correct?  But I'd hate to make you bet against us.  That's no fun.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Right, like I said, my ultimate issue is what this schedule says about the teams mindset; they are planning to not make the NCAA.  That's where I'm disappointed.

If you look at our team on paper, we shouldn't even make the NIT. Expectations should be low. Being a realist sucks but it gets you better results in the end.

Fortunately, games aren't played on paper. I'm optimistic that several things that cannot be predicted on paper will happen. I think JjJ has a break out year, I think Wally will vastly outplay what one should reasonably expect from a transfer who averaged under 2 ppg at Minnesota, I think Carter is a lot better than his sub 100 ranking would have us believe, and I think one or more of the other freshmen will vastly outplay their ranking. If most of those things happen, then we have a shot at being a bubble team. But objectively, we have no proof to say that it will.