Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?

[MU82]

I've already realized nearly a 100% return of capital on investments I made just over a year ago and am projecting for a leveraged IRR of 30%+ over a three-year horizon.  Fear, uncertainty, and doubt played absolutely no role whatsoever... just the knowledge that it's nearly impossible to make short-term money in an ultra-efficient market.

Congrats, Benny. What have you invested in that has produced such fantastic returns? (If you don't mind me asking.)

[Benny B]

Congrats, Benny. What have you invested in that has produced such fantastic returns? (If you don't mind me asking.)

Private equity.  You know... those typically crappy, underperforming investments that take a 2% fee and 20% of the profits.

[MU82]

Private equity.  You know... those typically crappy, underperforming investments that take a 2% fee and 20% of the profits.

Well, sir, I congratulate you.

You have bigger onions than I do ... but of course you probably already figured that!

[Tugg Speedman]

75% proven, blue-chip, dividend-growing stocks;

about 15% bond and bond-like investments; and

about 10% cash.

It is up about 12% through the first 6 months of 2016,

about 13% the last 12 months and

about 24% since June 30, 2014.

Think of all the "events" that have happened these last couple of years ... and our simple, conservative portfolio of mostly brand-name companies is up 24%.

Not doubting you but I know guys that make seven figures a month that don't have this track record.

Here's why ...

75% proven, blue-chip, dividend-growing stocks

And index that replicates this is the S&P 500 Dividends Aristocrats
The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats index is designed to measure the performance of S&P 500 index constituents that have followed a policy of consistently increasing dividends every year for at least 25 consecutive years.

YTD = 11.53%
1-Year = 13.26
2-year = 20.24%

15% bond and bond-like investments
The proxy for this is the Barclays US Agg Total Return Value

YTD = 5.33%
1-Year = 6.01%
2-year = 6.07%


10% cash
The proxy for this is 3-Month Tsy Bill

YTD = 0.14%
1-Year = 0..22%
2-year = 0.32%

===============

YTD

75% of S&P 500 Dividends Aristocrats at 11.53% is 8.65%
15% of Barclays US Agg Total Return Value at 5.33% is 0.80%
10% of 3-Month Tsy Bill at 0.14% is .01%

Add it up and your benchmark is 9.46%.  You are up 12%

1-Year

75% of S&P 500 Dividends Aristocrats at 13.26% is 9.95%
15% of Barclays US Agg Total Return Value at 6.01% is 0.90%
10% of 3-Month Tsy Bill at 0.22% is .02%

Add it up and your benchmark is 11.05%.  You are up 13%

2-Year

75% of S&P 500 Dividends Aristocrats at 20.24% is 15.18%
15% of Barclays US Agg Total Return Value at 6.07% is 0.91%
10% of 3-Month Tsy Bill at 0.32% is .03%

Add it up and your benchmark is 16.12%.  You are up 24%


If your were a professional manager you would be a superstar outperforming over 99% of your peers with this track record.

[Tugg Speedman]

Private equity.  You know... those typically crappy, underperforming investments that take a 2% fee and 20% of the profits.

Private equity is not efficient?

The S&P 500 is down over the last year and this investment is up 100%.  You must be taking risk similar to putting your life savings on the come line in Vegas.  Glad it worked out for you.

Restated, How many buildings at MU will have the Benny on them because if I had these returns their would be buildings with my name on them in Milwaukee.

[GooooMarquette]

So now Heisenberg is calling himself the Boy Plunger?

Wonder if he realizes the Boy Plunger ultimately lost his huge fortune and killed himself?  Probably wished he'd just invested in low-cost index funds.

[Tugg Speedman]

Wonder if he realizes the Boy Plunger ultimately lost his huge fortune and killed himself?  Probably wished he'd just invested in low-cost index funds.

I stay at the Sherry Netherland hotel most of the time in NYC.

And he lost his fortune 4 times.

[naginiF]

I stay at the Sherry Netherland hotel most of the time in NYC.

And he lost his fortune 4 times.

nar·cis·sis·tic
ˌnärsəˈsistik/Submit
adjective
synonyms:   vain, self-loving, self-admiring, self-absorbed, self-obsessed, conceited, self-centered, self-regarding, egotistic, egotistical, egoistic; informalfull of oneself

Also.......really not that impressive.  You really need to know your audience before you start bragging about your lavish lifestyle.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Doom and gloomers.  STZ up 6 dollars today.  Drink up.

http://www.marketwatch.com/m/quote/stz

[Benny B]

Private equity is not efficient?

The S&P 500 is down over the last year and this investment is up 100%.  You must be taking risk similar to putting your life savings on the come line in Vegas.  Glad it worked out for you.

Restated, How many buildings at MU will have the Benny on them because if I had these returns their would be buildings with my name on them in Milwaukee.

Any vehicle is only as efficient as the products it buys.

See... you have such a narrow vision of private equity; you think it's a bunch of entitled fund managers sitting around a table thinking they can outperform the market by writing bigger checks.  But I don't think you've ever shopped at the market I play in.  Stocks, bonds, commodities, treasuries and forex aren't the only asset classes out there, but they are the only efficient ones.

The Benny B Thunderdome is slated for opening in 2035.

[Mutaman]

What a boring dick measuring contest.

[Benny B]

Private equity is not efficient?

The S&P 500 is down over the last year and this investment is up 100%.  You must be taking risk similar to putting your life savings on the come line in Vegas.  Glad it worked out for you.

Restated, How many buildings at MU will have the Benny on them because if I had these returns their would be buildings with my name on them in Milwaukee.

And by the way, the come line in Vegas is about as risk free as you get.  To get a 30% return with virtually no risk.... yeah, that's an investment I'm putting my life savings into.

[Tugg Speedman]

nar·cis·sis·tic
ˌnärsəˈsistik/Submit
adjective
synonyms:   vain, self-loving, self-admiring, self-absorbed, self-obsessed, conceited, self-centered, self-regarding, egotistic, egotistical, egoistic; informalfull of oneself

Also.......really not that impressive.  You really need to know your audience before you start bragging about your lavish lifestyle.

Ok ...

Jesse Livermore is arguably the most famous stock speculator that ever lived.  He might have been the first national stock market celebrity, what Warren Buffet is today.  Edwin Lafevre wrote a book about him in 1923 called Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.   It is one of the must reads in the investment community.

He started in the 1890s in a Boston bucket shop where he got the nickname Boy Plunger.

Livermore made and lost a ton of money in his life,  In 1940 after he wiped himself out again.  He finished a drink at the bar of the Sherry Netherlands hotel in NYC, walked into the cloak room, put a pistol in his mouth and killed himself.  In his suicide note he said he was too old to start over again.

A modern version of Livermore might be found in the energy business.  See the story of Aubrey McClendon.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=51125.msg816484#msg816484


Ok, does that explain my new handle and the Sherry Netherlands Hotel reference?

[Dr. Blackheart]

What a boring dick measuring contest.

Dickerrod, eno?

[MU82]

Not doubting you but I know guys that make seven figures a month that don't have this track record.

Here's why ...

75% proven, blue-chip, dividend-growing stocks

And index that replicates this is the S&P 500 Dividends Aristocrats
The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats index is designed to measure the performance of S&P 500 index constituents that have followed a policy of consistently increasing dividends every year for at least 25 consecutive years.

YTD = 11.53%
1-Year = 13.26
2-year = 20.24%

15% bond and bond-like investments
The proxy for this is the Barclays US Agg Total Return Value

YTD = 5.33%
1-Year = 6.01%
2-year = 6.07%


10% cash
The proxy for this is 3-Month Tsy Bill

YTD = 0.14%
1-Year = 0..22%
2-year = 0.32%

===============

YTD

75% of S&P 500 Dividends Aristocrats at 11.53% is 8.65%
15% of Barclays US Agg Total Return Value at 5.33% is 0.80%
10% of 3-Month Tsy Bill at 0.14% is .01%

Add it up and your benchmark is 9.46%.  You are up 12%

1-Year

75% of S&P 500 Dividends Aristocrats at 13.26% is 9.95%
15% of Barclays US Agg Total Return Value at 6.01% is 0.90%
10% of 3-Month Tsy Bill at 0.22% is .02%

Add it up and your benchmark is 11.05%.  You are up 13%

2-Year

75% of S&P 500 Dividends Aristocrats at 20.24% is 15.18%
15% of Barclays US Agg Total Return Value at 6.07% is 0.91%
10% of 3-Month Tsy Bill at 0.32% is .03%

Add it up and your benchmark is 16.12%.  You are up 24%


If your were a professional manager you would be a superstar outperforming over 99% of your peers with this track record.

Whatever you say, Smuggles.

[brandx]

Anyone notice that Heisy tries to convince us he has "skills" the same way chicas tried to convince us he had "friends"?

I, for one, remain unconvinced.

[MU82]

Anyone notice that Heisy tries to convince us he has "skills" the same way chicas tried to convince us he had "friends"?

I, for one, remain unconvinced.

It took me too long, but I've finally realized it's not worth engaging him. He is never wrong. He has all the answers, regardless of the subject. He not only admits to being
"smug" -- his word, not mine -- he also brags about it, as if it's a positive character trait.

Oh, and he knows what our investments are better than we do -- even if we have our brokerage account on the screen right in front of us.

He doesn't want a conversation, he wants a confrontation. Like Chicos, he likes to argue for the sake of arguing. It's just not worth it.

See ya, Smuggles! Maybe one of these days, you'll even learn the difference between "there," "their" and "they're"!!

[tower912]

His livelihood requires ramping up uncertainty and unease.   He flat out said he doesn't make money during a calm market.   So it is nature to look for and try to ramp up crises so he can make mo' money.    It carries over.   

[naginiF]

Ok ...

Jesse Livermore is arguably the most famous stock speculator that ever lived.  He might have been the first national stock market celebrity, what Warren Buffet is today.  Edwin Lafevre wrote a book about him in 1923 called Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.   It is one of the must reads in the investment community.

He started in the 1890s in a Boston bucket shop where he got the nickname Boy Plunger.

Livermore made and lost a ton of money in his life,  In 1940 after he wiped himself out again.  He finished a drink at the bar of the Sherry Netherlands hotel in NYC, walked into the cloak room, put a pistol in his mouth and killed himself.  In his suicide note he said he was too old to start over again.

A modern version of Livermore might be found in the energy business.  See the story of Aubrey McClendon.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=51125.msg816484#msg816484


Ok, does that explain my new handle and the Sherry Netherlands Hotel reference?

I knew who Livermore was, didn't know the story of his demise, still not wrong about narcissism.

[GooooMarquette]

Yeah, the story is well known.  Make and lose tons of money, stay at the Sherry Netherland, kill self.  Good times.

You say Buffet's strategy no longer works...but I'll bet he doesn't end up penniless and dead of a self-inflicted gunshot wound in a hotel.

[Benny B]

Yeah, the story is well known.  Make and lose tons of money, stay at the Sherry Netherland, kill self.  Good times.

You say Buffet's strategy no longer works...but I'll bet he doesn't end up penniless and dead of a self-inflicted gunshot wound in a hotel.

Buffett's strategy does work... guess who was buying earlier in the week while everyone else was panicking.

[GooooMarquette]

Buffett's strategy does work... guess who was buying earlier in the week while everyone else was panicking.

Agree.

I was referring to a comment by Jesse Livermore fka Heisenberg a couple of pages back that said Buffet's strategy stopped working around 2000.

[Tugg Speedman]

Yeah, the story is well known.  Make and lose tons of money, stay at the Sherry Netherland, kill self.  Good times.

You say Buffet's strategy no longer works...but I'll bet he doesn't end up penniless and dead of a self-inflicted gunshot wound in a hotel.

He was on his way in 2008 until TARP saved his arse.

And again.  Treasuries have beaten Buffett over the last 15 years.  And you cannot investment like him because he buys preferred stocks issued to him with amazing deals you can never get.

[GooooMarquette]

He was on his way in 2008 until TARP saved his arse.

And again.  Treasuries have beaten Buffett over the last 15 years.  And you cannot investment like him because he buys preferred stocks issued to him with amazing deals you can never get.

TARP saved every investor's arse.

And I don't care whether I can invest like him.  I was just pointing out that you were wrong in saying that he is no longer successful.  Your fallen hero, on the other hand....

[4everwarriors]

Free Chicos 2016