NBA Draft

[ChicosBailBonds]

Guard's game .... 7 of top 12 picks are 6'10" or taller.

And most of them will bust out compared to the guards.....want to wager?   Donation to Alzheimer's Association of America or American Juvenile Diabetes Association if I win.   Charity of your choice if you win.

Let's set up the parameters.


As a reminder, it's those wonderful GMs that also thought people like Zeller were lottery worthy.  LOL.  They fall in love with size, not talent.  The game is a guards game now, the rules keep making it more of a guards game.

[MerrittsMustache]

The NBA is a perimeter game. Whether you want to label them guards, small forwards, or wings, the most successful NBA teams have talent on the perimeter.

"Drafting big men" is to the NBA what "corner OFs must hit for power" is to MLB.

[brewcity77]

Any y'all know if any other #30 picks in the draft ever amounted to more than chit?

Lazar Hayward amounted to the kid from Sixth Sense.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

WTF happened? Russel gets drafted at 2 and the elite game changer does not even get a sniff? If a guy is an elite game changer and a great defensive stopper, WTF happened here? After all, the NBA is going small and he was a great rebounder for a PG. Obviously, the NBA staffs know nothing! Start a hash tag: Sign Derrick as a Free Agent.

Still a sad and lonely man I see

[GGGG]

Still a sad and lonely man I see

Dude give the guy a break.  It might be the last time he can trot out that line.

[Lennys Tap]

As a reminder, it's those wonderful GMs that also thought people like Zeller were lottery worthy.  LOL.  They fall in love with size, not talent. 

After that town you're moving to in Idaho gets a library, a movie theatre and a McDonalds maybe they'll get an NBA franchise. You can be their GM. Since you're so much smarter than the guys now running things it shouldn't take you long to win a championship. They'll come all the way from Boise to watch your team of 6' 4" and under guard crush the opposition. The Idaho Traditionals - I like it. Much more in sync with local culture and attitudes than the Utah Jazz, no?

[rmi210]

David Lee definitely. Off the top of my head besides Butler I don't know many more than that.

19.6 Gilbert Arenas
19.2 David Lee
18.8 Gheorghe Muresan
17.1 Jimmy Butler
15.9 Anderson Varejao

Those are the top five #30 picks for career PER

[frozena pizza]

And most of them will bust out compared to the guards.....want to wager?   Donation to Alzheimer's Association of America or American Juvenile Diabetes Association if I win.   Charity of your choice if you win.

Let's set up the parameters.


As a reminder, it's those wonderful GMs that also thought people like Zeller were lottery worthy.  LOL.  They fall in love with size, not talent.  The game is a guards game now, the rules keep making it more of a guards game.

Yes, what would the parameters be?  It would be interesting to rate the lottery picks by PER relative to draft position five years from now.  It's certainly possible that Russell and Mudiay (the only true "guards" in the group) would top the list but I wouldn't be so sure.

[withoutbias]

And most of them will bust out compared to the guards.....want to wager?   Donation to Alzheimer's Association of America or American Juvenile Diabetes Association if I win.   Charity of your choice if you win.

Let's set up the parameters.


As a reminder, it's those wonderful GMs that also thought people like Zeller were lottery worthy.  LOL.  They fall in love with size, not talent.  The game is a guards game now, the rules keep making it more of a guards game.

huh?  you mean the guy who averaged 8 and 6 as a 2nd year player last year for the hornets?  i'm going to go ahead and say he's played like one of the 13 best players from that draft class.  very few players in that class have done even close to those numbers.

or do you mean the guy who averaged 10 and 6 in his 3rd year last year for the celtics?  i'm assuming not him because he wasn't a lottery pick, but if you did, again, i'd say most teams in the 2012 lottery would be happy with that production from their draft pick for that year.  out of the 1st round picks, he's definitely one of the top 13 so far in that class.

so i think you got that example wrong.  just because crean couldn't figure out how to win with 2 top draft picks doesn't mean nba coaches can't.

[willie warrior]

Dude give the guy a break.  It might be the last time he can trot out that line.

But wait....it was Tamu's and Sultan's Butt Boy's line. Cannot you see the brilliance of Buzz anymore?

[GGGG]

But wait....it was Tamu's and Sultan's Butt Boy's line. Cannot you see the brilliance of Buzz anymore?

Hey as of today, I can actually *marry* Buzz if we want to!!!

[rmi210]

huh?  you mean the guy who averaged 8 and 6 as a 2nd year player last year for the hornets?  i'm going to go ahead and say he's played like one of the 13 best players from that draft class.  very few players in that class have done even close to those numbers.

or do you mean the guy who averaged 10 and 6 in his 3rd year last year for the celtics?  i'm assuming not him because he wasn't a lottery pick, but if you did, again, i'd say most teams in the 2012 lottery would be happy with that production from their draft pick for that year.  out of the 1st round picks, he's definitely one of the top 13 so far in that class.

so i think you got that example wrong.  just because crean couldn't figure out how to win with 2 top draft picks doesn't mean nba coaches can't.

Cody is 7th in win share for that class, or 9th in win share per 48.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2013.html

[Lennys Tap]

Cody is 7th in win share for that class, or 9th in win share per 48.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2013.html

Top 7 guys in win share  from that class are all bigs? Must be a misprint. Where are the guards? Don't the numbers know it's a guard's game?

[w0bbie]

Yes, what would the parameters be?  It would be interesting to rate the lottery picks by PER relative to draft position five years from now.  It's certainly possible that Russell and Mudiay (the only true "guards" in the group) would top the list but I wouldn't be so sure.

fivethirtyeight did a projection similar to this - they developed a model which "uses a player's college numbers, demographic data such as height and weight, and his draftboard ranking" to calculate the probability that a player would fall into the categories of star, starter, role player, or bust over years 2-5 of their NBA career.  (Full Article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/projecting-the-top-50-players-in-the-2015-nba-draft-class/).

Their model gives Russel the highest probability of being a star (15.2%) of anyone in the draft class, but also a relatively high change of being a bust (40.9%), which knocks his overall rank to #5.  Justise Winslow, on the other hand, projects as only 8.4% likely to be a star, but has the highest probability of being a starter level player (51.1%).  He ended up ranked #2 overall.  This seems unsurprising since multi-tool, big wings are the hot commodity in the NBA today - moreso than "guards" in the traditional sense.  Note, Mudiay and international players were not considered since they did not have college stats.

It will be interesting to see how well this projection compares to actual results.

[Galway Eagle]

Lazar Hayward amounted to the kid from Sixth Sense.

What ever happened to him? Is he on some vision quest right now?

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

Cody is 7th in win share for that class, or 9th in win share per 48.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2013.html

Zeller is actually a solid player, who I think still has some physical maturing ahead of him. He still looks like a college kid. I don't agree with the Frank K pick, but Zeller was a good choice by Charlotte.

[ChicosBailBonds]

The NBA is a perimeter game. Whether you want to label them guards, small forwards, or wings, the most successful NBA teams have talent on the perimeter.

"Drafting big men" is to the NBA what "corner OFs must hit for power" is to MLB.

Agree.  The rules have changed so much that the emphasis is on the perimeter.  Talented PG, guys that can shoot the 3, or penetrate with the option to dish or shoot.  The anchoring big men in the middle has become less and less common, and the rules haven't helped their cause.

[NotBuzzWilliams]

Some gems from JSComments:

Looney had chance to develop and give his skills under Bo Ryan but went to Hollywood and fell down draft boards. Lazy and unwilling to work

Doesn't sound like the Bucks will move up and go after Frank. Pretty disappointing

The Bucks are a disgrace. Hometown hero Sam Dekker and they select some jabroni. Enjoy Seattle

the bucks can go to hell. Could of had Decker and picked this loser. Screw the new arena let them move will not support this crap

Today is the day the Milwaukee Bucks franchise made it clear they do not want to stay in Milwaukee

bucks wont even draft decker the best player available in the draft.Screw them no new arena let them move.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Cody is 7th in win share for that class, or 9th in win share per 48.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2013.html

If I recall, drafted 4th.....and you're saying he is coming in 7th or 9th thus far.  As stated then and stated now, taken way too highly, but also by one of the worst GMs the sport has ever known.  Not surprising.

[withoutbias]

If I recall, drafted 4th.....and you're saying he is coming in 7th or 9th thus far.  As stated then and stated now, taken way too highly, but also by one of the worst GMs the sport has ever known.  Not surprising.

lol.  you went from "lol'ing" at gm's who "thought he was a lottery pick" to changing your opinion to "he dropped 3 spots!  way too high!" once it was proven he WAS worth a lottery pick.

so what you're saying is gm's damn well better not take a middle of the lottery pick player just 3 spots too high.  guess every gm better nail his pick in the exact order that the players produce on the court!  but it's alright if a guy like coach crean can take 2 of the top 10 players in college basketball and produce a s16 as the best he's done at iiii!

hilarious man.

[Lennys Tap]

If I recall, drafted 4th.....and you're saying he is coming in 7th or 9th thus far.  As stated then and stated now, taken way too highly, but also by one of the worst GMs the sport has ever known.  Not surprising.

Of the top 11 picks Zeller was #1 in win shares. Saying he was taken "way too highly" is absurd. The other 10 guys in the top 11 (especially Bennett), maybe. Not Zeller.

[GGGG]

lol.  you went from "lol'ing" at gm's who "thought he was a lottery pick" to changing your opinion to "he dropped 3 spots!  way too high!" once it was proven he WAS worth a lottery pick.

so what you're saying is gm's damn well better not take a middle of the lottery pick player just 3 spots too high.  guess every gm better nail his pick in the exact order that the players produce on the court!  but it's alright if a guy like coach crean can take 2 of the top 10 players in college basketball and produce a s16 as the best he's done at iiii!

hilarious man.

I guess we shouldn't be surprised any longer at his goalpost shifting...

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Some gems from JSComments:

Looney had chance to develop and give his skills under Bo Ryan but went to Hollywood and fell down draft boards. Lazy and unwilling to work

Doesn't sound like the Bucks will move up and go after Frank. Pretty disappointing

The Bucks are a disgrace. Hometown hero Sam Dekker and they select some jabroni. Enjoy Seattle

the bucks can go to hell. Could of had Decker and picked this loser. Screw the new arena let them move will not support this crap

Today is the day the Milwaukee Bucks franchise made it clear they do not want to stay in Milwaukee

bucks wont even draft decker the best player available in the draft.Screw them no new arena let them move.

Do Badger fans understand the concept of a depth chart? Absolutely no need for Dekker on the Bucks. I wouldn't have picked Vaughn personally, I was hoping for Bobby Portis. But he fell pretty far, someone seemed to know something about him.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

My biggest point of confusion from last night, why do the Sixers, who have Embiid and Noel, draft what seemed like 15 bigs and only 1 wing. What are they going to do with all those post players? I get that Okafor was the best available, makes sense. But all the other bigs they picked?

[JuniorCardigan]

My biggest point of confusion from last night, why do the Sixers, who have Embiid and Noel, draft what seemed like 15 bigs and only 1 wing. What are they going to do with all those post players? I get that Okafor was the best available, makes sense. But all the other bigs they picked?

Possibly trade fodder? They might do a lineup with Noel at 4 and Okafor at the 5, I think Embiid could be out for a longer period of time.

So I'm guessing some sort of trade. I was expecting them to trade down if Okafor fell to them.