2015 MLB Season Thread

[NavinRJohnson]

As it stands now, the worst thing that happened to the Brewers' long-term success may have been making a run in 2011.

Perhaps. Then again, I believe to this day that had they kept Aioki last year, they would have been in the playoffs and perhaps the WS. His departure hurt them both in the lineup, and in the OF. They had a bunch of guys who could hit (primarily for power), but few who could get on base. Had he been the left fielder, and lead off hitter, I believe they would have had a much more balanced and consistent lineup, and better defense to go along with good pitching, which could have prevented the horrible losing stretch in the second half that kept them out of the playoffs. Was a huge miscalculation by Melvin.

[🏀]

Perhaps. Then again, I believe to this day that had they kept Aioki last year, they would have been in the playoffs and perhaps the WS. His departure hurt them both in the lineup, and in the OF. They had a bunch of guys who could hit (primarily for power), but few who could get on base. Had he been the left fielder, and lead off hitter, I believe they would have had a much more balanced and consistent lineup, and better defense to go along with good pitching, which could have prevented the horrible losing stretch in the second half that kept them out of the playoffs. Was a huge miscalculation by Melvin.

This is a gross over-evaluation of a 1.0 WAR player.

[buckchuckler]

This is a gross over-evaluation of a 1.0 WAR player.

Well, he was a 3 WAR player his years with the Brewers.  I think the Brewers biggest problem is owing 110 million dollars to a guy that produced 1 WAR last year, has oddly diminished power, doesn't seem like a SB threat at all anymore, and adds no value defensively.

[Benny B]

This is a gross over-evaluation of a 1.0 WAR player.

Yes, but 1.0 WAR with the Brewers has to be like 16.5 WAR on any other team.

[🏀]

Yes, but 1.0 WAR with the Brewers has to be like 16.5 WAR on any other team.

[CreightonWarrior]

First 2-13 team since 98!

Attanasio says Roenicke and Melvin are safe. Blaming it on the players.

[NavinRJohnson]

This is a gross over-evaluation of a 1.0 WAR player.

WAR is one thing. Impact on the makeup of a team and a lineup is another. My theory is that aioki's presence in the lineup ultimately has a positive impact on everyone else's WAR, based on where they're batting in the lineup, situation when they're up, runners on base, opposing runners that don't take an extra bases on Khris Davis's puss arm, etc., etc. We'll never know, but I know.

[jesmu84]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-scouts-and-stats-agree-kris-bryant-is-going-to-be-dope/

[buckchuckler]

WAR is one thing. Impact on the makeup of a team and a lineup is another. My theory is that aioki's presence in the lineup ultimately has a positive impact on everyone else's WAR, based on where they're batting in the lineup, situation when they're up, runners on base, opposing runners that don't take an extra bases on Khris Davis's puss arm, etc., etc. We'll never know, but I know.

Aoki has a lot of positive attributes as a player, but if you are insinuating that he has a better than, well, anyone, I would say you are mistaken. 

[NavinRJohnson]

Aoki has a lot of positive attributes as a player, but if you are insinuating that he has a better than, well, anyone, I would say you are mistaken. 

Well, tough to argue with quality, intelligent analysis like that. You've convinced me, Nori Aioki is tne worst player in baseball. The a Brewers were definitely better off with Khris Davis in LF, and batting in the middle of their order last year.

[MerrittsMustache]

Well, tough to argue with quality, intelligent analysis like that. You've convinced me, Nori Aioki is tne worst player in baseball. The a Brewers were definitely better off with Khris Davis in LF, and batting in the middle of their order last year.

Interestingly, both Aoki and Davis had exactly 549 PAs last season and both had an oWAR of 1.7.

I'm not saying that Aoki wouldn't have made a positive difference, but it's quite a stretch to claim he was the missing piece to winning the NL pennant.

[🏀]

Interestingly, both Aoki and Davis had exactly 549 PAs last season and both had an oWAR of 1.7.

I'm not saying that Aoki wouldn't have made a positive difference, but it's quite a stretch to claim he was the missing piece to winning the NL pennant.

Knock it off with the quality, intelligent analysis!

Who even batted leadoff for the Brewers the most? Gomez? Gennett? There's .356 & .320 OBP compared to Aoki's .349. That doesn't justify only winning 31 games after the month of June.

[MerrittsMustache]

Knock it off with the quality, intelligent analysis!

Who even batted leadoff for the Brewers the most? Gomez? Gennett? There's .356 & .320 OBP compared to Aoki's .349. That doesn't justify only winning 31 games after the month of June.

My assumption is that the Brewers preferred Davis' power in the middle of the line-up since they had 2013 All-Stars in Gomez and Segura penciled in at 1-2.

[NavinRJohnson]

My assumption is that the Brewers preferred Davis' power in the middle of the line-up since they had 2013 All-Stars in Gomez and Segura penciled in at 1-2.

Yep, and that was the mistake they made. Went for power (and strikeouts) throughout the lineup, and also took a major hit defensively. Those extra bases runners take on Khris Davis's terrible arm, and the balls he doesn't get to matter too.

[MerrittsMustache]

Yep, and that was the mistake they made. Went for power (and strikeouts) throughout the lineup, and also took a major hit defensively. Those extra bases runners take on Khris Davis's terrible arm, and the balls he doesn't get to matter too.

IIRC, Davis had better defensive metrics than Aoki last season.

[buckchuckler]

Well, tough to argue with quality, intelligent analysis like that. You've convinced me, Nori Aioki is tne worst player in baseball. The a Brewers were definitely better off with Khris Davis in LF, and batting in the middle of their order last year.

Wow dude, really?  How the hell did you get that.  I said he is a good player at least twice in This thread.  I said he has a bad arm.  I must disagree with your very intelligent assessment of  my post.  Maybe you should let Khris Davis do your reading for you.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

Wow dude, really?  How the hell did you get that.  I said he is a good player at least twice in This thread.  I said he has a bad arm.  I must disagree with your very intelligent assessment of  my post.  Maybe you should let Khris Davis do your reading for you.

My favorite arguments always involve Nori Aoki.

[NavinRJohnson]

Knock it off with the quality, intelligent analysis!

Who even batted leadoff for the Brewers the most? Gomez? Gennett? There's .356 & .320 OBP compared to Aoki's .349. That doesn't justify only winning 31 games after the month of June.

That's just it though, those guys aren't coming out of the lineup, just gonna be hitting in a different spot. When they were so bad in July/Aug, they weren't scoring runs and lost a lot of close games. They needed to have a better constructed and more balanced lineup. once in a while you needed to be able to manufacture a scratch out a run. Did the struggles of Bruan, Segura, etc. play a roll? Of course, but my point is if they score one more run in a couple of those games, or keep one more opponent's run off the board because your defense is better, a guy doesn't take an extra base on your LF horrible arm, and you turn a few of those losses into wins, your season looks very different, you aren't losing 20 out of 25 or whatever the heck they did in one stretch, and you win more than 31 games in the second half.

Like I said, we'll never know, but they have proven that losing begets losing, and that seems to be accentuated when you have 1-8 swing for the home run ball, vs having a couple guys that can get a bunt down, hit a fly ball when needed, hit a ball to the right side when needed. These are all things they were (still are) terrible at doing.

[NavinRJohnson]

Wow dude, really?  How the hell did you get that.  I said he is a good player at least twice in This thread.  I said he has a bad arm.  I must disagree with your very intelligent assessment of  my post.  Maybe you should let Khris Davis do your reading for you.

You're right. how could I possibly come to that conclusion when you said...

...if you are insinuating that he has a better than, well, anyone, I would say you are mistaken. 

Your words, not mine, so yeah, dude, really.

[NavinRJohnson]

First 2-13 team since 98!

Attanasio says Roenicke and Melvin are safe. Blaming it on the players.

I like Attanasio a lot. I think what he has done with the Brewers is nothing short of amazing. ~3million fans a year is not an accident. Playoffs in '08, '11, and probably should have been there last year (though the way this year is going, that is looking like a strike against). That said, What the heck did he fly into town for? "Ronnie, you're doing a helluva job." Are we supposed to feel better, or conclude they aren't the worst team in baseball because he sat in with Bob Uecker for an inning?

I admit I don't really know what he's supposed to do, but when you look around and see the Cardinals, Cubs, and Pirates with plans, philosophies, and farm systems, Doug Melvin looks border line  incompetent. You better start positioning that story for your own team if nothing else, or your attendance is going to quickly kill any plans you do come up with.

[buckchuckler]

You're right. how could I possibly come to that conclusion when you said...

Your words, not mine, so yeah, dude, really.

Haha!  You are right, my bad.  I apologize.  What my brain wanted to type was that if you are insinuating he has a better ARM than anyone you are incorrect.  

I humbly apologize for my error.  

[NavinRJohnson]

Actually, as I think about it, I'd probably get rid of roenickie after they lose today. Will he be around after this season? Unlikely, so go ahead and pull the trigger and at least try to salvage something from this season. As much about last year as it is this year. With whom should he be replaced? Two options...

1) Craig Counsell - has been a candidate for other coaching and managerial jobs, he's already in house, so you don't take as big a hit on Eating roenickie's contract, and fans seem to like him. Seems like he may ultimately have his eye on Melvin's job though.

2) Ozzie Guillen - I am only half joking on this one because the guy is a total nut, but I think it'd be entertaining and would certainly change the culture and atmosphere.

Will it make a diffence? Nah, both would be sort of a gimmick to try to pull some positive out of this season, but they are gonna blow this thing up in six months or less anyway, so what harm can it do?

[NavinRJohnson]

IIRC, Davis had better defensive metrics than Aoki last season.

I don't think that's the case. Aioki was 2nd among RFers(UZR) and 14th among all  OFers last year.

I'll do you one better as far as impact goes. Had they had Aioki, I don't believe they would have traded for Parra. Instead, I believe they would have gone after a 1B who could hit to improve the lineup, or maybe even both. Would it have made a difference? We'll never know, but they were forced to address an area of weakness that they created in the offseason, and thus were not able to improve the horrible situation at 1B.

[buckchuckler]

Pretty nice brawl in the Sox-Royals game.  The Royals have been very umm fiesty this year.  Though they have been hit by a lot of pitches already too. 

[jesmu84]

The Cubs still look good.

- Lake with a solid first game up.

- Bryant is getting on base and hitting extremely well - lots of walks - without even a home run yet.

- Still a little surprised they decided to bring Russell up so early.

- Will Castro be able to continue his hot start?