Expectation for Next Year

[goldeneagle91114]

I think people need to let the excitement of a recent commit wear off before they make their decision. Next year we only return 2 starters, and while many may argue this will be "addition by subtraction", there are a lot of unknowns. Also, I believe the same issues that plagued the team this year will again return (maybe to less of a degree) next year.

Rebounding: We were soft on the glass all year and consistently out rebounded, even with Fisher in the line up. I hope Wojo fills one of the last 2 scholarships with a high energy, rebound machine. While Henry will help, i don't think we can expect him to make up 100% of our deficiency.

the PG position: Don't want to rehash all of the Du. Wilson conversations. But, even with Carter, next year is still a huge question mark. While I believe Carter will be great at MU, i don't think it will start Day 1. He will need time to grow into the position and get use to the speed of college basketball. while this takes place who fills the role?

Scoring: We lose Carlino, who makes up these points? while Duane Wilson has shown flashes of brilliance he has also disappeared for full games (case in point the DePaul game: 0 points, 1 assist, 3 turnovers) Granted, the best thing about freshman is that they become sophomores, but i still think he is a full year away from being our go-to scorer. Besides Wilson, who else is there that has impressed? JJJ? Cohen?

To sum it up, next year could go a million different ways. However, I don't think we should "expect" to make the NCAA Tournament... "Expectations" is the first word in the title of this thread.

[MUfan12]

To sum it up, Wojo has put together a great class on paper and my expectations are they play at a high level from day one. If we are not a NCAA team next year I will be disappointed.

Then you'll probably be disappointed. The jump from HS/AAU to high-D1 ball is big. The game moves much faster, and a lot of these kids haven't had the coaching to help them process things quickly enough.

There's no doubt this class looks really good on paper. And what gives me hope is that they're all known as smart players and gym rats. That gives Wojo and the staff a nice starting point to establish how they want to play. How quickly they pick up on it will determine if they can get to the postseason or not.

[JakeBarnes]

Then you'll probably be disappointed. The jump from HS/AAU to high-D1 ball is big. The game moves much faster, and a lot of these kids haven't had the coaching to help them process things quickly enough.

There's no doubt this class looks really good on paper. And what gives me hope is that they're all known as smart players and gym rats. That gives Wojo and the staff a nice starting point to establish how they want to play. How quickly they pick up on it will determine if they can get to the postseason or not.

I expect Henry to more or less have made the jump given his AAU/USA work. He's been in the faster game already. So I consider Duane, Steve, Luke, Henry and (hopefully) JJJ to have made the jump already.

Sacar, Haanif, Matty, Cohen and Traci need to get on the pace. The good news is a lot of prognosticators and scouts seem to think Traci has the focus and polish of a Big East PG already. He certainly has the body and ability to finish in contact. It also sounds like Sacar and Haanif have the defensive intensity to play for Wojo early on with the former developing a hell of a scoring game lately. Heldt will largely succeed if the Butch lessons he's gotten help him adapt to bigger bodies beating him up inside. And Cohen just needs to become a soph and gain a bit of control and poise. Let's hope those upsides are figured outl.

[brewcity77]

I think the forgotten guy is going to be Wally, and maybe I'm crazy, but I think he'll be an important piece of the puzzle. He was a freshman on a loaded Minnesota team under Tubby, then never given a chance by Pitino. The guy has had 3 years of high-major practices to get his body into shape and get ready for the nightly grind. As a HS player, he was a good shooter from range and good rebounder. He knows the expectations of a high-major player and will be ahead of the curve when it comes to the defense and Wojo's expectations. I think he's going to surprise a lot of people by how much he brings to the table.

Basically, his skillset is exactly what we need. Shooter, rebounder, defender. He won't necessarily lead us in any categories, but I do think he'll make a real impact on all three of those aspects of the game.

[JakeBarnes]

I think the forgotten guy is going to be Wally, and maybe I'm crazy, but I think he'll be an important piece of the puzzle. He was a freshman on a loaded Minnesota team under Tubby, then never given a chance by Pitino. The guy has had 3 years of high-major practices to get his body into shape and get ready for the nightly grind. As a HS player, he was a good shooter from range and good rebounder. He knows the expectations of a high-major player and will be ahead of the curve when it comes to the defense and Wojo's expectations. I think he's going to surprise a lot of people by how much he brings to the table.

Basically, his skillset is exactly what we need. Shooter, rebounder, defender. He won't necessarily lead us in any categories, but I do think he'll make a real impact on all three of those aspects of the game.

Oh crap. I totally forgot about him and I also completely agree. He has good range, can jump out of the gym and has also had a "red shirt" year to get a lot of practice time in Wojo's system. At worst he is a high energy guy. But I think he will be able to contribute 8-10 pts on any given night when we need him to.

[mu-rara]

I know this will be controversial, but I have to say it:  I wish we had Derrick for 1 more year.

That's not because I think Derrick is great, or that Carter is bad. But, Derrick is the perfect fit to share PG duties with a young PG. You could split time between the 2 of them and likely get pretty good production night in and night out.

As it stands now, if Carter has a rough game next year (all frosh do), MU is going to be in a really tough spot without a veteran PG on the roster.

With this said, I'm looking forward to next year. I want to see how Wojo does with young players, and see how much improvement they can make in 1 season.

Easy to talk smart when Ners is on hiatus. 

This is not a crazy thought at all.  A JC point or a Russell Wilson guy would help here.

[tower912]

I know this will be controversial, but I have to say it:

I wish we had Derrick for 1 more year.

That's not because I think Derrick is great, or that Carter is bad. But, Derrick is the perfect fit to share PG duties with a young PG. You could split time between the 2 of them and likely get pretty good production night in and night out.

As it stands now, if Carter has a rough game next year (all frosh do), MU is going to be in a really tough spot without a veteran PG on the roster.

With this said, I'm looking forward to next year. I want to see how Wojo does with young players, and see how much improvement they can make in 1 season.

Your logic tracks.   Most rational people would agree.  Having a senior defensive stopper to help calm things for 12-15 mpg?    We can only dream. 

[brewcity77]

I know this will be controversial, but I have to say it:

I wish we had Derrick for 1 more year.

That's not because I think Derrick is great, or that Carter is bad. But, Derrick is the perfect fit to share PG duties with a young PG. You could split time between the 2 of them and likely get pretty good production night in and night out.

Probably no surprise that I agree with this

I think Derrick is ideal to help lead a young team. Willing to defer, willing to do the dirty work, willing to teach. I'd love a grad transfer clone of Derrick, even better if he could hit 35% beyond the arc and 70% at the line.

[JTBMU7]

I know this will be controversial, but I have to say it:

I wish we had Derrick for 1 more year.

That's not because I think Derrick is great, or that Carter is bad. But, Derrick is the perfect fit to share PG duties with a young PG. You could split time between the 2 of them and likely get pretty good production night in and night out.

As it stands now, if Carter has a rough game next year (all frosh do), MU is going to be in a really tough spot without a veteran PG on the roster.

With this said, I'm looking forward to next year. I want to see how Wojo does with young players, and see how much improvement they can make in 1 season.

Totally agree, Derrick would be a perfect fit on next year's team. Timing obv. didn't exactly work out with everything else that transpired (Junior burning his red shirt in '10 was a terrible move). Defense, rebounding, low turnovers... would provide the perfect safety net to a young, developing, PG.

[dgies9156]

Based on this poll as of noon central, we certainly are expecting A LOT from our Freshmen!

Almost 60% of us expect an NCAA berth. Wow, if they're that good, I'm looking forward to going somewhere next spring.

Can we get an NCAA first and second round in Orlando or West Palm? There's personal reasons for that!

[mu-rara]

I voted for a low seed (7-10) for next year.  That is as good as it gets for next year. 

If I could vote for Low NCAA seed / NIT bid that is what I would choose.

[brewcity77]

Based on this poll as of noon central, we certainly are expecting A LOT from our Freshmen

I definitely don't think Wojo is done. I have a feeling at least one starter isn't on the roster yet. It may be unfair, but the easy Wojo has shown he can close the deal has me believing he will get a grad transfer that can have an immediate impact like Carlino did.

[tower912]

I definitely don't think Wojo is done. I have a feeling at least one starter isn't on the roster yet. It may be unfair, but the easy Wojo has shown he can close the deal has me believing he will get a grad transfer that can have an immediate impact like Carlino did.

In addition to one more starter not currently listed, it would not surprise me if there was one more departure, opening one more schollie.      BTW, I think Wojo's best option right now is to sit on those last two scholarships and see how (A) graduate transfers, (B) regular transfers, (C) decommits, and (D) coaching changes go.    2-3 options will present themselves.   

[JTBMU7]

In addition to one more starter not currently listed, it would not surprise me if there was one more departure, opening one more schollie.      BTW, I think Wojo's best option right now is to sit on those last two scholarships and see how (A) graduate transfers, (B) regular transfers, (C) decommits, and (D) coaching changes go.    2-3 options will present themselves.   

Exactly, with the end of each season comes about 150 players who open up when coaches change jobs/get fired/etc... best to be patient, see who opens up and get an experienced guy from that pool versus trying to grab another remaining uncommitted freshman.

[dgies9156]

In addition to one more starter not currently listed, it would not surprise me if there was one more departure. 

Who? We have five returnees for next year.

We know Duane, Luke and Sandy aren't going anywhere. As many as all three could be starting next year.

STjr will be a senior. It's unlikely he's going anywhere and given what we've seen, STjr is coming into his own and will be a critically important Warrior as we retool for next year.

That leaves JJJ. He'd be crazy to leave now. He's showing a lot of improvement and hinting that he's with the Wojo program. We have a great team coming in and lord knows, with some work over the summer, particularly on defense and his shot, he could be that "3" we need for next year.

I think anyone leaving now would be nuts!

[GOO]

I voted NIT.  I hope for better and things could break for the better, but for now, NIT.  We are a better team on paper going into next year than going into this year, so that seems reasonable.  A solid Point Guard and we could achieve better.   

As for transfers, one never knows.  Remember these guys have people in their ear telling them how great they are, how coach is holding them back, how they should have the offense running through them, etc, etc.  Think of Ners and Dawson.  Now think of a few people surrounding you like Ners, telling you things and encouraging you to move on... throw in a little ego or a hanger on with an incentive to get you to move to a different program, and it can be a recipe for an unhappy player.

[MU82]

I know this will be controversial, but I have to say it:

I wish we had Derrick for 1 more year.

That's not because I think Derrick is great, or that Carter is bad. But, Derrick is the perfect fit to share PG duties with a young PG. You could split time between the 2 of them and likely get pretty good production night in and night out.

As it stands now, if Carter has a rough game next year (all frosh do), MU is going to be in a really tough spot without a veteran PG on the roster.

With this said, I'm looking forward to next year. I want to see how Wojo does with young players, and see how much improvement they can make in 1 season.

I agree with this in theory ...

But any coach would have difficulty benching a senior captain who had played as many minutes as Derrick. And even rational people (in other words, those other than Ners and a select few others) would have difficulty accepting 30+ minutes for Derrick and 10-15 minutes for Carter.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Who? We have five returnees for next year.

We know Duane, Luke and Sandy aren't going anywhere. As many as all three could be starting next year.

STjr will be a senior. It's unlikely he's going anywhere and given what we've seen, STjr is coming into his own and will be a critically important Warrior as we retool for next year.

That leaves JJJ. He'd be crazy to leave now. He's showing a lot of improvement and hinting that he's with the Wojo program. We have a great team coming in and lord knows, with some work over the summer, particularly on defense and his shot, he could be that "3" we need for next year.

I think anyone leaving now would be nuts!

exactly what I thought about Burton before he left, he'd get tons of minutes this year after Luke joined the team but...

[goldeneagle91114]

I think people need to let the excitement of a recent commit wear off before they make their decision. Next year we only return 2 starters, and while many may argue this will be "addition by subtraction", there are a lot of unknowns. Also, I believe the same issues that plagued the team this year will again return (maybe to less of a degree) next year.

Rebounding: We were soft on the glass all year and consistently out rebounded, even with Fisher in the line up. I hope Wojo fills one of the last 2 scholarships with a high energy, rebound machine. While Henry will help, i don't think we can expect him to make up 100% of our deficiency.

the PG position: Don't want to rehash all of the Du. Wilson conversations. But, even with Carter, next year is still a huge question mark. While I believe Carter will be great at MU, i don't think it will start Day 1. He will need time to grow into the position and get use to the speed of college basketball. while this takes place who fills the role?

Scoring: We lose Carlino, who makes up these points? while Duane Wilson has shown flashes of brilliance he has also disappeared for full games (case in point the DePaul game: 0 points, 1 assist, 3 turnovers) Granted, the best thing about freshman is that they become sophomores, but i still think he is a full year away from being our go-to scorer. Besides Wilson, who else is there that has impressed? JJJ? Cohen?

To sum it up, next year could go a million different ways. However, I don't think we should "expect" to make the NCAA Tournament... "Expectations" is the first word in the title of this thread.

Well after today's loss to Nova i think there is a clear need for an experienced point guard and a high energy rebounder. Luke with only 2 rebounds... that just doesn't cut it.

the best thing that came out of today's game is that the underclassmen got t see how elite basketball is played.

[mileskishnish72]

Wow, I was surprised when I saw the results - 92% of responders think we'll be heading off to a tournament, and there's a majority that says it will be the Big Dance.

Wasn't there a formula on here a while ago using HS ratings and college experience to predict wins? It would be interesting to see what that method would predict. Hell, it would be interesting to see what it predicted for the year we just had (although I don't recall any provision for predicting player departures).

I just think that we are perhaps a tad optimistic. I think Steve has shown us who he is. Luke will likely show some development. Jajuan needs to work on the mechanics of his shot. Wally could contribute, and I think we all expect Duane to show us some stuff. Not going long on Sandy, and the rest are highly-rated, but freshmen. Hope you guys are right!

[Milkshakes]

I am surprised by how optimistic folks are. I hope I am wrong and all of you are right. However, getting to the NCAAs next year would be amazing. We won 4 Big East games this year. I am extremely excited about the incoming class and I am a big Wojo fan. I am sure he is the right guy and he will be a great coach. However, to expect what this poll suggests people are expecting from the freshman is just not realistic in my mind. Henry will be great but after watching some of his games he is still going to be a freshman adapting to a whole new game. The rest even more so. If we win 6 more games and go 10-8 and get in that would be an amazing season. I don't see it but I hope I am wrong.

[HutchwasClutch]

I get frustrated because we (Scoop folks) always seem to think that young guys cannot play at high level from the start. IMO the bar for next season should be set high and the guys need to play at high level. Too often we have solid freshmen that waste a year or two not playing at high enough level. I understand not every guy will be an impact player from the start but do think expectations need to be higher.

To sum it up, Wojo has put together a great class on paper and my expectations are they play at a high level from day one. If we are not a NCAA team next year I will be disappointed. These kids play AAU and are not freshmen from 30 years ago. The days of Al saying the best thing about freshmen is they become a soph are long gone. Other schools have impact freshmen and I am betting we will next season.

Goose nailed it!  Some of what I've read here about expectations for Henry next season are laughable.  The kid's going to come in right away and have a huge impact on the program.  Some have such a defeatist, don't be too optimistic, mentality here.  I don't know yet about the other four freshman, but Henry puts us on the map next year again, period.  Lightning can and will strike our program again, and that will be in the form of one Henry Ellenson stepping on campus next fall. Take it to the bank.

[HutchwasClutch]

That leaves JJJ. He'd be crazy to leave now. He's showing a lot of improvement and hinting that he's with the Wojo program.

Please, he showed mild improvement at best.  He's got a long way to go, and now he's got a bunch of talented newcomers competing with him for mintues. 

[MU82]

Goose nailed it!  Some of what I've read here about expectations for Henry next season are laughable.  The kid's going to come in right away and have a huge impact on the program.  Some have such a defeatist, don't be too optimistic, mentality here.  I don't know yet about the other four freshman, but Henry puts us on the map next year again, period.  Lightning can and will strike our program again, and that will be in the form of one Henry Ellenson stepping on campus next fall. Take it to the bank.

I don't know about "defeatist," but I do try to be cautiously optimistic and realistic. I think we will improve significantly next season. I think Henry and other freshmen will have an impact, perhaps even a major one, because they will have to given the bodies available to Wojo (not to mention obvious talent they have).

I think most people would rather be cautious and pleasantly surprised than over-the-top optimistic and unpleasantly surprised. That doesn't mean we are defeatist. Defeatist would be saying, "I think we'll suck again." I'm certainly not saying that, nor are most others I've read.

[HutchwasClutch]

I don't know about "defeatist," but I do try to be cautiously optimistic and realistic. I think we will improve significantly next season. I think Henry and other freshmen will have an impact, perhaps even a major one, because they will have to given the bodies available to Wojo (not to mention obvious talent they have).

I think most people would rather be cautious and pleasantly surprised than over-the-top optimistic and unpleasantly surprised. That doesn't mean we are defeatist. Defeatist would be saying, "I think we'll suck again." I'm certainly not saying that, nor are most others I've read.

Henry is a special player.  Guys like him don't come along very often.  I didn't vote, or even consider national championship, but you bet I checked NCAA.  If Henry were just another top 100 kid, I would have checked NIT.  But he's not just another top 100 kid.  You're talking about a kid who has the NBA's attention already!  

I'm not normally one for boundless optimism either, but sometimes you can just discard conventional wisdom and be bold in your thinking.  And Henry at MU gives me reason to be in that mindset.

I'm just trying to make a case for posters here to break out of their comfort zone, the way they always think and project, and realize what is coming next year with Henry.    And with guys like Luke (especially Luke), Duane, Sandy, and STJ, we know there are several returning guys to support this special player.