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27-10

Author Topic: Take a step back  (Read 18311 times)

tower912

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Take a step back
« on: March 10, 2015, 01:43:30 PM »
I am as thrilled as anyone that Wojo has added Traci Carter to an already really good class.    But before we start mentally hanging banners for next year I would suggest we collectively take a deep breath.   Next year will be better, simply due to size and numbers, but it isn't fair to assume all of the young guys are going to instantly come in and be great from day 1.    IMO, 18 wins is a fair expectation for this team, with the optimistic possibility that everything does gel and MU gets to 20-21 wins.
  What this DOES do is set up '16-'17  as having the potential to be something special.    Next year is going to be another roller coaster, albeit one with a higher ceiling.  
« Last Edit: March 10, 2015, 01:48:53 PM by tower912 »
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

brewcity77

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #1 on: March 10, 2015, 01:47:53 PM »
Agreed. The roster as assembled will be better, but we are still losing our leading scorer and two senior starters. I think we will be back in the tourney next year, but it won't quite be banner time yet.
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dgies9156

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #2 on: March 10, 2015, 01:49:09 PM »
I am as thrilled as anyone that Wojo has added Traci Carter to an already really good class.    But we start mentally hanging banners for next year I would suggest we collectively take a deep breath.   Next year will be better, simply due to size and numbers, but it isn't fair to assume all of the young guys are going to instantly come in and be great from day 1.    IMO, 18 wins is a fair expectation for this team, with the optimistic possibility that everything does gel and MU gets to 20-21 wins.
  What this DOES do is set up '16-'17  as having the potential to be something special.    Next year is going to be another roller coaster, albeit one with a higher ceiling. 

Tower, I aint hanging any banners either. But after this year -- and last year -- I am excited.

My mind wanders to November 1975, when we played the Russian Silver Medal Olympic Team in Milwaukee. They were a tough bunch of pros and we mauled them. We knew that night as we left the Arena we had something really, really special.

We don't have anything that special -- yet. But those of us who live, eat and breathe Marquette basketball and remember fondly the good ole days of the 1970s, are seeing the beginnings of the something special again. I really view our challenge as twofold. First, can Coach Wojo consistently recruit as he has this year. Second, can we keep him over the long-term.

Time will tell.

tower912

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #3 on: March 10, 2015, 01:51:44 PM »
dgies, I hope you are right.   But it could also be a re-run of KO's first recruiting class with Mac and Key.   They were not good as freshmen but developed into a really good team.    If the team doesn't gel instantly next year, I hope that those of us who live, eat, and breathe MU hoops can be patient with the process.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Dawson Rental

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #4 on: March 10, 2015, 01:54:01 PM »
Ahh, you left out an important detail.

You actually have a degree from Marquette?

Quote from: muguru
No...and after reading many many psosts from people on this board that do...I have to say I'm MUCH better off, if this is the type of "intelligence" a degree from MU gets you. It sure is on full display I will say that.

wadesworld

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #5 on: March 10, 2015, 01:55:58 PM »
7-10 seed next year.  2-5 seed the year after.
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mu03eng

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #6 on: March 10, 2015, 02:00:56 PM »
I get from a self preservation and sanity standpoint wanting to temper expectations but I think we are do for some excitement and enthusiasm for this team next year

I won't predict anything tangible until I see the schedule come out and see at least some Pro-Am action, but gun to my head right now.....we got a tourny team on our hands.
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chapman

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #7 on: March 10, 2015, 02:03:33 PM »
Nonsense.  Anything less than 27 wins and the Elite Eight is a terrible underachievement.  The recruiting stars given by the fortunetellers say so.

tower912

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #8 on: March 10, 2015, 02:04:20 PM »
We have a tourney team for 15-16?    Not ready to go that far.   Unless you are Kentucky, you can't count on an entire Freshman class contributing.      One senior.   Leading scorer gone.    Pick up a solid graduate transfer, and I will seriously consider jumping on the bandwagon.    As it is, I am still hesitant.  
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Groin_pull

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #9 on: March 10, 2015, 02:12:04 PM »
Don't see MU in the tourney next year. On the cusp, but ultimately, comes up short. The year after could be very interesting.

79Warrior

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #10 on: March 10, 2015, 02:33:24 PM »
We have a tourney team for 15-16?    Not ready to go that far.   Unless you are Kentucky, you can't count on an entire Freshman class contributing.      One senior.   Leading scorer gone.    Pick up a solid graduate transfer, and I will seriously consider jumping on the bandwagon.    As it is, I am still hesitant.  

This. Better for sure, but lots of young newcomers that may or may not contribute.

The Lens

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #11 on: March 10, 2015, 02:43:18 PM »
The best part about this class is there are 4 quality players surrounding Ellenson.  It is very doubtful that Henry is back for his sophomore year but Wojo has built a strong foundation regardless.

And before anyone accuses me of putting too much pressure on the young man, below is the top source for NBA Draft info:

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2016/

I'm just planning accordingly, as I would imagine is Wojo.
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T-Bone

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #12 on: March 10, 2015, 02:46:12 PM »
I will never step back!


Next year will be fun and frustrating (watching a HUGE chunk of the team learning to play college bball).  I think there's a possibility at making the tournament.  Given a healthy team and we're playing post-season - maybe not NCAA though.
But the year after should be something special.  
I'm like a turtle, sometimes I get run over by a semi.

GOO

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #13 on: March 10, 2015, 02:49:59 PM »
Going into this season, we had no proven players returning. Again we had not one proven player (maybe Carlino, but he was a high volume shooter who had question marks as to how he'd fit in).

Every position for this years team was at best a question mark as to what we could expect.  We only were decent if players developed at a much faster pace than counterparts at other schools and maxed out their young potential.

For next year, 2015-16, I see the following:

PT:  ? A big question mark.  Probably no worse than going into this year with the Carter commitment, but this is still a question mark until proven otherwise.  Still need a back up or one year transfer here.

2:  + We have what should be a solid starter in Duane.  We loose Carlino, and he will be missed, but with Duane we should be better than coming into this year.  I consider this position a positive for this team and will be a position that on any given night we have the better player at the 2.

3:  ? A big question mark for next year.  Probably Cohen's to lose, but he has to become more dynamic for him to establish himself at this position.  But, we got so little from this position this year (unless you consider Duane to be a 3 at times), that we shouldn't be worse off.  I do not consider Taylor Jr to be a 3 and can't imagine him guarding college 3's in space.  Not sure what will happen here.  Maybe Cohen, JJJ, maybe Cheatam.  

4:  + We have Taylor Jr or Ellenson here.  We will be no worse and probably better. I normally give little credence to freshman, but he will be an exception,  even though Ellenson has not proven a thing at the college level.  But given his skill set, even if he way underperforms, it should be a plus for this team and we should get better production here.  It is a wild card as to how we will rate compared to the competition, but we will be better here than this year or at least not worse.  If Ellenson can play some D and pull his big man outside, it could make our offense a lot more interesting and should be a decent position with him and Taylor.

5 ++ Luke is skilled and can play.  He is proven.  He may not be the second coming, but he is proven and will probably be better next year given his skill set and surrounding players.

I think Duane and Luke give us two very good players.  More than we had coming into this year.   We have three position where I feel pretty good about next year.  If the PT position turns out okay, we will have a solid team.

So, we lose Carlino.  We were a player away from winning 2 or 3 more games (getting us close to .500 in the big east).  If we can get decent point guard play, I suspect that shooting for .500 in conference is doable and will put us near the bubble.  

willie warrior

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #14 on: March 10, 2015, 02:57:42 PM »
dgies, I hope you are right.   But it could also be a re-run of KO's first recruiting class with Mac and Key.   They were not good as freshmen but developed into a really good team.    If the team doesn't gel instantly next year, I hope that those of us who live, eat, and breathe MU hoops can be patient with the process.
That is possible, although this is likely a better class than that O'Neil class. Those guys were good players, but were frosh. And Logterman had to play at PG and really struggled that first year. When he was able to move back to 2G the next year, he really blossomed. These 5 guys will all be frosh, playing in a top conference, so we should not expect a lot their first year. Other than Ellenson and Cheatham, none are ranked that high. On 247:
Ellenson 5 star ranked 12
Cheatham 4 star ranked 73
Heldt  3 star ranked 132
Carter 3 star ranked 157
Anim  3 star ranked 183
Hopefully they can be developed each year.
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mu03eng

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #15 on: March 10, 2015, 03:14:55 PM »
We have a tourney team for 15-16?    Not ready to go that far.   Unless you are Kentucky, you can't count on an entire Freshman class contributing.      One senior.   Leading scorer gone.    Pick up a solid graduate transfer, and I will seriously consider jumping on the bandwagon.    As it is, I am still hesitant.  

Here's what I don't think a lot of people have a way of judging because its never really happened for Marquette.....this is a ridiculously talented incoming class (with probably one more "starter" to come) and there is good talent at critical positions on the roster currently.  This is the most talented recruiting class we've ever had(including Wally), expectations should be high and this is more of a reloading class than a rebuilding class.
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warriorfan 14

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #16 on: March 10, 2015, 03:26:23 PM »
will have to see these guys play in a mu uniform before I get too excited. will be nice to have a full roster next year though

tower912

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #17 on: March 10, 2015, 03:54:48 PM »
Here's what I don't think a lot of people have a way of judging because its never really happened for Marquette.....this is a ridiculously talented incoming class (with probably one more "starter" to come) and there is good talent at critical positions on the roster currently.  This is the most talented recruiting class we've ever had(including Wally), expectations should be high and this is more of a reloading class than a rebuilding class.

You are falling into the same trap all of the  "we've-got-7-top-100-players-so-we-should-go-to-the-tourney" folks fell into this season.   At the start of next season, how many players will be on the MU roster who have accomplished anything at the COLLEGE level?    I know that this is a highly ranked class.   Of high schoolers.   They have to show me something at the college level before I buy in.   
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

GoldenZebra

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #18 on: March 10, 2015, 03:58:25 PM »
Its still going to happen. People are still going to hype the team and then get pissed when it doesnt pan out...

GOO

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #19 on: March 10, 2015, 04:02:45 PM »
You are falling into the same trap all of the  "we've-got-7-top-100-players-so-we-should-go-to-the-tourney" folks fell into this season.   At the start of next season, how many players will be on the MU roster who have accomplished anything at the COLLEGE level?    I know that this is a highly ranked class.   Of high schoolers.   They have to show me something at the college level before I buy in.  

At least two more proven players than we had going into this year (Duane and Luke). That is a start.

Can Henry Ellenson give us 10 and 6, ore even 8 and 5?  Who knows, but if he is even decent for his rating, that gives us three better players for next year than we had coming into this year.  

But I do agree that looking at ratings is very problematic.  The biggest difference is that last year we knew the limitations of the highly ranked players as we had one year of college evidence.  All but a very few posters (two to be exact) knew that their ratings didn't show what type of college players they were.  

With this years recruits, at least we can have some hope that their ratings will better transfer to the college bottom line.  Or that one or two become solid contributors.   

Anyone know how Wally has looked in practice?

MU82

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #20 on: March 10, 2015, 04:08:34 PM »
I am excited to have a team that will be more fun to watch and will give us more promise for the future.

If "the future" happens to be before the end of the 2015-16 season, all the better.

Some of us actually are patient, realistic observers.

I am psyched to see the team next season and beyond. Great job by Wojo.
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PGsHeroes32

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #21 on: March 10, 2015, 04:09:13 PM »
I don't think anyone is stepping to far ahead. Just excited that we will compete next year and have something special brewing for 16-17.

Since Ners is gone I can say this without it blowing up.

We are losing 3 guys and gaining 6 at least. We are losing carlino who was nice for us this year but still is what he is...a volume shooter and not much else. The other two you can argue all you want were great guys but we will already be better without them in the lineup.

Duane, Luke and Steve will all be better with the experience and off season. JJJ and Cohen are wild cards.

Henry might score more pts next year than derrick and Juan combined for in their careers. The other guys will contribute with cheatam and carter being key.
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

Tums Festival

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #22 on: March 10, 2015, 04:14:23 PM »
We're going into next year with still a great many variables. Not as many as this season, but things could go a lot of different ways. It seems that the posters on this board that were the most negative were those that way over estimated this year's team and couldn't (or wouldn't) admit it. Without knowing our OOC schedule for next year, trying to predict a win total, and if we'll go dancing, is a shot in the dark.
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GOO

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #23 on: March 10, 2015, 04:29:04 PM »
We're going into next year with still a great many variables. Not as many as this season, but things could go a lot of different ways. It seems that the posters on this board that were the most negative were those that way over estimated this year's team and couldn't (or wouldn't) admit it. Without knowing our OOC schedule for next year, trying to predict a win total, and if we'll go dancing, is a shot in the dark.

Totally true.  And, I hope our non-conference schedule is forgiving, to give this team a chance to come together and get some W's.

How about an over seas trip?

4everwarriors

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Re: Take a step back
« Reply #24 on: March 10, 2015, 04:29:21 PM »
Y'all, it's great to get a woody right now. And I'm a huge (see what I did there?) Wojo backer, but remember the cat has tons of playin' time to sell these recruits. If Steve can reel the big fishes when the classes are stacked, then we're goin' Uptown, ai na?
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