President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix

[mu03eng]

Seriously, Eng... you've got to see for yourself what's going on in Reno.  Even for someone in the commercial development industry, what Elon is doing right now in the north NV desert is amazing... what's mind-blowing is what else he might be doing there.

The sheer size of the plant aside, word on the street is that the gigafactory (or at least certain portions of it) is going to have security not ever before seen outside a government operation... one person described it as "Groom Lake without a halo."  I'm sure paranoia is playing a role here, but I've heard some speculation that Musk has his own Manhattan Project going that isn't just going to turn the automotive industry on its head, he's going to deadlift, spin around his head a few times, and body slam the entire energy production industry.  He's had 24/7 security at the site for several years (before they even had permits to do anything) doing nothing more than watching dirt, literally.

A bit of background is important here: consider that China's identified lithium resources (5.4M tons) are fifth behind Bolivia (9.0M), Chile (7.5M), Argentina (6.5M) and the US (5.5M).  Even though identified world resources total less than 40M tons, China has a ways to go before it acquires enough Li overseas to corner the market, and even still, amongst the US, our BFF Chile, and Argentina (who happens to answer every time we drunk dial her), the three of us control roughly half of the known Li resources (key word being known; more on that in a second).  But here's the kicker... annual production of Li is only around 30,000 tons/year, worldwide; at that rate, worldwide Li resources are enough to keep production going for well into the next millenium.

We know Musk is already planning a direct rail line to Silver Peak (largest active Li deposit in US), and the worst kept secret in Reno is that Tesla decided on the Reno site years ago despite only making the "official" announcement this past summer (publicly, SV, New Mexico, Phoenix, Tucson, and Texas were also being "considered") because of it's proximity to the Rock Springs Uplift.  If not familiar... think about what happens to the mom & pop retailers in a small town when Wal-Mart moves in... RSU's effect on the global lithium supply is essentially Walmart on steroids, novacaine, Nyquil, Darvon, some sort of fish paralyzer, and several cocktails.  Estimates vary, but a U of Wyoming researcher estimates as much as 18 million tons... now there may be enough for two millenia of production.

In 2003, 15.6M vehicles were sold in the US (six-year high), of which, about 0.65% were plug-in electric vehicles (PEV).  At 9-10 lbs. of Li per PEV on average, that would require increasing annual Li production by 34,000-38,000 tons annually, or just more than twice the current production, if the PEV goal is half of total cars being sold.  Bearing in mind that Li can be recycled an unlimited number of times, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that even if Elon doesn't have something up his sleeve, the Li supply is not the issue... the cost is the issue.  And that's the primary purpose of the gigafactory... to mass-produce the batteries and drive down the cost of the Tesla.

But if Elon is on to something and the secondary purpose here goes beyond simply growing Tesla's market share of vehicle sales, we're talking about one guy who could potentially piss off the Russians, Saudis, and the Chinese simultaneously (not even Hitler, Bin Laden or our last two PsOTUS were able to pull off that trifecta).  Irrespective of the conjecture, I am one person who is very thankful that Musk - despite his outside demeanor -  is a person on the side of advancement, not the status quo.

I get it, and I'm ultimately for it....but beware of too much sizzle and not enough steak.  Musk does a lot of things for appearance sake and the marketing value.  He very well may have something super secret going on....or he wants people to think he has something going on to generate interest.  He doesn't do things, IMO, for completely altruistic reasons, he is trying to get an edge.  I think his heart is in the right place but there is a very competitive nature to him.

[ChicosBailBonds]

One issue that will require significant investment and cost reduction is the energy storage method.  Currently the most efficient batteries are very costly and EXTREMELY unfriendly to the environment.  By-product of their production is similar to spent nuclear fuel rods from a nuclear reactor (has to be stored, can't be "disposed of").  So we can get there, but the battery is a technology that is unique to this application and is the real expense of the whole thing.

I'm all for this but there is a lot of work, time and money needed to get it to a scalable model.  We'll get there, just a question of when.

Exactly right....electric cars are as unfriendly to the environment in the long run as a gas car, but people don't want to hear it.  They don't want to know what it takes to generate the electricity or how the batteries are "disposed" of....as long as they don't see a tailpipe they think it's green.  LOL.

[ChicosBailBonds]

"We" don't love our fossil fuels. Fossil fuel companies (who wield amazing lobbying power both domestically and internationally) love their fossil fuels.

I love my fossil fuels.  Every bit as much as my solar panels.  My trees love my fossil fuels....so did my dad who was petroleum geologist \ geophysicist. 

Those fossil fuels have raised the standard of living for humanity X fold like nothing else in history.  Be it from heating, to making travel around the world or across town, medicines, textiles, plastics, etc. 

Yes, I LOVE MY FOSSIL FUELS and what they have done for humanity.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Honestly don't know why you put that in teal, that is probably the rationale indeed. Especially in California, where Tesla's charger network is quite built up. The state doesn't want to lose gas tax revenue, and a GPS system is the only way to assess based on usage of the roads.

In 10 years, I would say a majority of all new cars will be electric plugins. Government will have to adjust because the gas tax won't cut it anymore.

Maybe, but let's not forget it was only 4 short years ago that POTUS wanted 1 million electric cars on the road by the start of 2015.  We hit 280,000.   Dreadful.

As for the charger network out here....meh.  There are probably 25 Tesla's in the parking structure at work....I stick with my pickup truck....there are 5 charging stations.  At first the folks were getting that for free, but people bitched (as they should have) and now they must pay for them.  Sure there are chargers around.  In our town we have 2 charging stations for a total of 4 cars at one time, but they are still few and far between.   No doubt things will ramp up, but the dirty secret about how dirty these cars really are will ultimately get the ire of the environmentalists and that will raise the price of those cars even more for the "solution" they come up with.  In the meantime, oil production is absolutely knocking it out of the park and reserves have been found putting the "peak oil" nonsense out of it's misery for the next 1,000 years.

[ChicosBailBonds]

The primary reason for a mileage based tax is because of fuel efficiency gains. The Highway Trust Fund is the source of all federal $ for infrastructure. Everything from roads to bridges to river locks and ports on the coasts. The fund has been underfunded for several years now because of 2 issues.
1) the federal gas tax has not increased and efforts to tie it to a cost of living increase etc. have failed in Congress
2) more fuel efficient cars

Yup....they mandated higher CAFE standards, and got them.  Unintended consequences led to less trips to the pump, so now they need their hands in the cookie jar again, and this is how they plan on doing it.  Of course, it has tremendous privacy implications which many of us are hoping ultimately kills the bitch in it's tracks.

Examples like Anthems security breach is just one of many that people are highly suspicious of the data and what gov't or companies will do with it or how well they can protect it.

[MUsoxfan]

Maybe, but let's not forget it was only 4 short years ago that POTUS wanted 1 million electric cars on the road by the start of 2015.  We hit 280,000.   Dreadful.

As for the charger network out here....meh.  There are probably 25 Tesla's in the parking structure at work....I stick with my pickup truck....there are 5 charging stations.  At first the folks were getting that for free, but people bitched (as they should have) and now they must pay for them.  Sure there are chargers around.  In our town we have 2 charging stations for a total of 4 cars at one time, but they are still few and far between.   No doubt things will ramp up, but the dirty secret about how dirty these cars really are will ultimately get the ire of the environmentalists and that will raise the price of those cars even more for the "solution" they come up with.  In the meantime, oil production is absolutely knocking it out of the park and reserves have been found putting the "peak oil" nonsense out of it's misery for the next 1,000 years.

So you're saying that it's dreadful that we ONLY have 280,000 electric cars out there that are really bad for the environment....

Gotcha

[ChicosBailBonds]

So you're saying that it's dreadful that we ONLY have 280,000 electric cars out there that are really bad for the environment....

Gotcha

It's dreadful that we have 280K when the goal was 1 million....but gov't types have never been very good at goals, predictions, or numbers.  Or accountability.

Tell you what, can we dispose of all of these electric car batteries in the south side of Chicago?  Or maybe finally we can get Yucca Mountain opened up.....there's a problem with these things, but no one wants to talk about it.

[MUsoxfan]

It's dreadful that we have 280K when the goal was 1 million....but gov't types have never been very good at goals, predictions, or numbers.  Or accountability.

Tell you what, can we dispose of all of these electric car batteries in the south side of Chicago?  Or maybe finally we can get Yucca Mountain opened up.....there's a problem with these things, but no one wants to talk about it.

Again, you admit that these batteries are horrible for the environment but fault the government for not having more of them.

And trust me, my office is in the heart of ChiRAQ. Disposing the batteries in that area can only improve it 

[Spotcheck Billy]

Yup....they mandated higher CAFE standards, and got them.  Unintended consequences led to less trips to the pump, so now they need their hands in the cookie jar again, and this is how they plan on doing it.  Of course, it has tremendous privacy implications which many of us are hoping ultimately kills the bitch in it's tracks.

Examples like Anthems security breach is just one of many that people are highly suspicious of the data and what gov't or companies will do with it or how well they can protect it.

so how should we fund the Highway Trust fund? You rip the mileage tax as an option but what do you propose instead? Something needs to be done to fix that, we can't keep ignoring our infrastructure.

Traffic congestion is a huge cost to industry thus to each and every one of us, other countries not ignoring infrastructure have huge advantages over the US as a result

[WarriorInNYC]

Again, you admit that these batteries are horrible for the environment but fault the government for not having more of them.

And trust me, my office is in the heart of ChiRAQ. Disposing the batteries in that area can only improve it 

I think the points he was making were separate from each other.  Correct me if I'm wrong Chico's, but I think he is faulting the government for making such a bold statement that we are going to have 1 million, and yet they barely reached 25% of that.  This is regardless of how harmful he thinks the batteries are.

[WarriorInNYC]

so how should we fund the Highway Trust fund? You rip the mileage tax as an option but what do you propose instead? Something needs to be done to fix that, we can't keep ignoring our infrastructure.

Traffic congestion is a huge cost to industry thus to each and every one of us, other countries not ignoring infrastructure have huge advantages over the US as a result

I'm not sure what the solution would be to fund that.  I don't see how the mileage tax would get done.  Especially considering how the government has had a TON of privacy issues over the last couple of years with the NSA monitoring.

On top of that, there would have to be some considerable costs undertaken to implement this.  We are talking there would need to be some type of device that tracks miles driven.  This device would need to be secure enough from a data standpoint to control where this mileage info goes.  And how would this info be communicated?  Wirelessly?  On top of that, it would need to be regulated by some government party to ensure this is all being done accurately.  And there would have to be some way to ensure individuals are not tampering with the device to falsely report how many miles they drive.

And would this be on all vehicles?  Motorcycles as well?  Scooters and mo-peds?

[Spotcheck Billy]

I'm not sure what the solution would be to fund that.  I don't see how the mileage tax would get done.  Especially considering how the government has had a TON of privacy issues over the last couple of years with the NSA monitoring.

On top of that, there would have to be some considerable costs undertaken to implement this.  We are talking there would need to be some type of device that tracks miles driven.  This device would need to be secure enough from a data standpoint to control where this mileage info goes.  And how would this info be communicated?  Wirelessly?  On top of that, it would need to be regulated by some government party to ensure this is all being done accurately.  And there would have to be some way to ensure individuals are not tampering with the device to falsely report how many miles they drive.

And would this be on all vehicles?  Motorcycles as well?  Scooters and mo-peds?

The method tested by Oregon is plugging a small unit into the OBD2 box in cars. Many insurance companies already offer discounts if you plug their modules in there. Insurance companies can wirelessly monitor your driving habits via those modules. for a tax it would track mileage and report wirelessly. I get the privacy concerns, I have plenty of those as well and wish it were easy to live life without disclosing my SS # to every company.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Exactly right....electric cars are as unfriendly to the environment in the long run as a gas car, but people don't want to hear it.  They don't want to know what it takes to generate the electricity or how the batteries are "disposed" of....as long as they don't see a tailpipe they think it's green.  LOL.

You're mixing together a couple of things into a political talking point. Don't do that.

Break it down:

#1 Nobody in this thread has said that the electric car is going to save the planet or is the greenest option available.

#2 Electricity is dirty to make and batteries take a good amount of natural resources to create and dispose of.

So, knowing that, I still think the electric car is a superior solution. Electric motors are far more efficient, effective and dependable than an internal combustion engine could ever be.

Now, solving the power storage dilemma is a big challenge. Musk is taking it on and thinks he can figure it out. Now, even if we solve the battery dilemma, how are we doing to create and distribute clean electricity? It's not easy as MUENG correctly pointed out.

BUT... that doesn't mean we shouldn't try, or that we should be afraid of the evolution.

[Benny B]

Didn't someone find a buttload of Lithium in Wyoming?

That's the Rock Springs Uplift I alluded to.

[mu03eng]

The method tested by Oregon is plugging a small unit into the OBD2 box in cars. Many insurance companies already offer discounts if you plug their modules in there. Insurance companies can wirelessly monitor your driving habits via those modules. for a tax it would track mileage and report wirelessly. I get the privacy concerns, I have plenty of those as well and wish it were easy to live life without disclosing my SS # to every company.

I do this on my phone already, I have an OBD unit plug into my car and then the app Dash to track my data.  Great tool for understanding performance and dissecting the idiot lights.

[brandx]

You're mixing together a couple of things into a political talking point. Don't do that.

Break it down:

#1 Nobody in this thread has said that the electric car is going to save the planet or is the greenest option available.

#2 Electricity is dirty to make and batteries take a good amount of natural resources to create and dispose of.

So, knowing that, I still think the electric car is a superior solution. Electric motors are far more efficient, effective and dependable than an internal combustion engine could ever be.

Now, solving the power storage dilemma is a big challenge. Musk is taking it on and thinks he can figure it out. Now, even if we solve the battery dilemma, how are we doing to create and distribute clean electricity? It's not easy as MUENG correctly pointed out.

BUT... that doesn't mean we shouldn't try, or that we should be afraid of the evolution.

My God! How dare you suggest progress?

[brandx]

so how should we fund the Highway Trust fund? You rip the mileage tax as an option but what do you propose instead? Something needs to be done to fix that, we can't keep ignoring our infrastructure.

Traffic congestion is a huge cost to industry thus to each and every one of us, other countries not ignoring infrastructure have huge advantages over the US as a result

Cut defense.

Considering we have the largest air force (Air Force) in the world, why do we also need to have the 2nd largest air force (US Navy) in the world?

[reinko]

Cut defense.

Considering we have the largest air force (Air Force) in the world, why do we also need to have the 2nd largest air force (US Navy) in the world?

Why DO YOU HATE AMERICA??!?!??

[jesmu84]

Cut defense.

Considering we have the largest air force (Air Force) in the world, why do we also need to have the 2nd largest air force (US Navy) in the world?

[reinko]

So if China and Russia can build a big ass secret bridge we are effed?

[mu03eng]

Cut defense.

Considering we have the largest air force (Air Force) in the world, why do we also need to have the 2nd largest air force (US Navy) in the world?

Projection of power and being able to sustain it.  The Air Force can operate from the US but it's not sustainable so you have to have localized air bases.  A lot of places we can't get an air base in range so Navy has to do the job.

World has decided we are the police(whether they admit it or not) so we have to have the power to project globally.

[Benny B]

North Korea may have more submarines than anyone else, but they're not very intimidating.

[Benny B]

So if China and Russia can build a big ass secret bridge we are effed?

Unlikely... publicly, they have enough trust to be trade partners, but privately, they hate each other.  That's not to say that they wouldn't get into bed with each other, but it would be an S&M marathon so ugly that someone's walking out of that room with misshapen genitals.

[brandx]

Projection of power and being able to sustain it.  The Air Force can operate from the US but it's not sustainable so you have to have localized air bases.  A lot of places we can't get an air base in range so Navy has to do the job.

World has decided we are the police(whether they admit it or not) so we have to have the power to project globally.

Actually, I think WE decided we are the world's police.

I was being slightly facetious when posting about both air forces. I realize the difference in what they each do, but with a little cooperation rather than competition between the branches, there are hundreds of Billions to be saved.

[mu03eng]

Actually, I think WE decided we are the world's police.

I was being slightly facetious when posting about both air forces. I realize the difference in what they each do, but with a little cooperation rather than competition between the branches, there are hundreds of Billions to be saved.

I'll agree to disagree on the first part.

As to the second part.....the JSF begs to differ