Vander Blue versus Davante Gardner

[MU82]

In a game of HORSE I'd take Davante.

Not if dunks were allowed!!!!!!

[ATL MU Warrior]

The defensive rating formula is all kinds of complex. It takes the team defense and then adjusts based on how many box score stats a player collects.

As Juniors
Gardner ORtg 123.0 / DRtg 93.6
Blue ORtg 106.7 / DRtg 98.1

As Sophs
Gardner ORtg 119.5 / DRtg 91.7
Blue ORtg 99.3 / DRtg 93.9

Again, Gardner's defensive impact is probably over-stated and Blue's defensive impact is probably under-stated. Even then, the gap between Gardner's offense and defense is so much larger than the gap between Blue's. I just don't see how unavailable defensive stats would move the advantage towards Blue.

As for the best way to compare apples to apples, well, that's the $10K question. Pudner invented "Value Add" to answer that question. PAWS40 (position adjusted win score / 40 minutes) is another metric that compares relative contribution against similar positions.

Thank you.  This stuff is extremely interesting but I just can't get myself to devote the time to study it and truly understand it all.

That being said, I would still pick Vander!

[mu_hilltopper]

I reject your reality, and substitute my own!

[ATL MU Warrior]

I reject your admittedly incomplete version of reality, and substitute my own!

FIFY

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

MLB...middle linebacker.

Gotcha, I always use ILB

[mu_hilltopper]

FIFY

Ha, delicious edit.  I reject your reality, and substitute my own!  Again!

[NersEllenson]

There are a few things to parse out of this...

First, steals and blocks are inadequate to judge someone's defense.  Hollinger even admits in his PER ratings that steals and blocks are not a great way to judge defense because it gives a greater weight to those who take chances on the perimeter and rim protecting defenders.  There are all sorts of basketball people who don't put any weight at all in steals and blocks to determine someone's defensive abilities.  Gregg Popovich, who knows a thing or two about defense, doesn't care much for either.  Bruce Bowen, who everyone acknowledges was a great defender, didn't put up gaudy stats at all on the defensive end.  

Second, no one uses "charges taken" to judge a players defense.  We all know what you did here.  You knew that Blue didn't take a lot of them so you threw it in there to bolster your argument.

And finally, your eye test is a complete failure if you think that Blue wasn't tough, didn't have great instincts and wasn't a playmaker.  He was actually all those things, and that's what made him a very good defender.  

(And your MLB comparison is silly.  No one would chose Hawk over Lewis.)

LOL - Except a guy like you...who values all the "hidden" value that never shows up in a box score...i.e. - Vander's defense, Derrick at PG last season, Jake Thomas, etc.

And FYI - A guy with good defensive instincts is in the Top 1000 of ALL college basketball players in Steal Percentage.  Burton has GREAT defensive instincts - that's what shows up - and why he shows up in the box score.  Good defenders take chances - using football again - Charles Woodson...any premier cornerback or safety...they have instincts that allow them to think one step ahead of the opposition, and that leads to interceptions (forced turnovers/steals in basketball.) 

And please Blue was not a play maker.  Todd Mayo was a better playmaker than Vander Blue...Todd assisted at a higher rate, and also hit a ton of clutch shots.  Sadly Todd was only able to get on the floor for 23 minutes per game as a junior...Vander got 33.

[MU82]

A guy with good defensive instincts is in the Top 1000 of ALL college basketball players in Steal Percentage.  Burton has GREAT defensive instincts - that's what shows up - and why he shows up in the box score.  Good defenders take chances - using football again - Charles Woodson...any premier cornerback or safety...they have instincts that allow them to think one step ahead of the opposition, and that leads to interceptions (forced turnovers/steals in basketball.) 

Serious question, Ners: Do you think Burton was a better defensive player last year than Blue was?

[Spotcheck Billy]

Blue didn't play much defense at all last year

[jesmu84]

Everyone has their individual opinion. But the public opinion is in favor of Blue. Case closed.

[NersEllenson]

Serious question, Ners: Do you think Burton was a better defensive player last year than Blue was?

I think Burton will be a better basketball player than Blue ever was at Marquette, and that we will see that as soon as this year.

To answer your question specifically - Blue was a better one on one defender, and slightly* less foul prone than Burton.  Burton was a much better defender with regard to being disruptive (blocks/steals)defensively.  Burton stole the ball at the 5th highest rate of ALL players in college basketball last season.  That is elite level. As a freshman Blue's steal percentage was 2.7% - Burton, 5.2% - that essentially tells me he is twice as disruptive, and through those steals limits the opposition to even get off a shot in that possession.  

The whole point of all of this anyway was that Blue doesn't show up in any defensive categories as being elite - yet some here want to give him that label, even though in categories that can measure defensive value...Blue is largely middle of the road at best.

[Texas Western]

I think Burton will be a better basketball player than Blue ever was at Marquette, and that we will see that as soon as this year.

To answer your question specifically - Blue was a better one on one defender, and slightly* less foul prone than Burton.  Burton was a much better defender with regard to being disruptive (blocks/steals)defensively.  Burton stole the ball at the 5th highest rate of ALL players in college basketball last season.  That is elite level. As a freshman Blue's steal percentage was 2.7% - Burton, 5.2% - that essentially tells me he is twice as disruptive, and through those steals limits the opposition to even get off a shot in that possession.  

The whole point of all of this anyway was that Blue doesn't show up in any defensive categories as being elite - yet some here want to give him that label, even though in categories that can measure defensive value...Blue is largely middle of the road at best.

I saw the same things in both Burton and JJJ. An ability to anticipate defensively and create steals. That is something that takes special talent. i cant wait to see both of them on the floor together for extended minutes.

I thought Vander worked hard on his D and gave it full effort. That puts him ahead of a lot of players but doesn't necessarily make him a game changer. For example he wasn't anywhere near as disruptive as DJO was .

[MU82]

I think Burton will be a better basketball player than Blue ever was at Marquette, and that we will see that as soon as this year.

To answer your question specifically - Blue was a better one on one defender, and slightly* less foul prone than Burton.  Burton was a much better defender with regard to being disruptive (blocks/steals)defensively.  Burton stole the ball at the 5th highest rate of ALL players in college basketball last season.  That is elite level. As a freshman Blue's steal percentage was 2.7% - Burton, 5.2% - that essentially tells me he is twice as disruptive, and through those steals limits the opposition to even get off a shot in that possession.  

The whole point of all of this anyway was that Blue doesn't show up in any defensive categories as being elite - yet some here want to give him that label, even though in categories that can measure defensive value...Blue is largely middle of the road at best.

Thanks for the answer. I agree that Burton can be disruptive. He was last year in limited minutes, and those were just about the only easy buckets we got all season. We missed those tremendously from previous years.

Some others might say Blue was an "elite" defender. All I've said is that he was a good defender and easily our best perimeter defender. He was much better at staying in front of his man and denying his man than Burton was as a freshman, and that is disruptive in its own way. I think you lean on stats too much, especially given that stats do a terrible job of measuring good on-ball D.

I hope that we can put a lot of pressure on opposing guards with Duane, Burton and JJJ, because we will desperately need those easy points - not to mention we will desperately need to keep opponents from feeding the post.

[Dr. Blackheart]

This is a great thread...end of the day, MU will miss them both. I really wish Vander stayed one more year to mature. Rare athletic ability. In the end, it was hard to take Vander off the floor, while for DG, that was not true.  You cannot be "better" starting and sitting on the bench.

[BallBoy]

Thanks for the answer. I agree that Burton can be disruptive. He was last year in limited minutes, and those were just about the only easy buckets we got all season. We missed those tremendously from previous years.

Some others might say Blue was an "elite" defender. All I've said is that he was a good defender and easily our best perimeter defender. He was much better at staying in front of his man and denying his man than Burton was as a freshman, and that is disruptive in its own way. I think you lean on stats too much, especially given that stats do a terrible job of measuring good on-ball D.

I hope that we can put a lot of pressure on opposing guards with Duane, Burton and JJJ, because we will desperately need those easy points - not to mention we will desperately need to keep opponents from feeding the post.

Here are the number of defense rebs per game for both in the years they were together.  

Blue
2010-2011   1.973
2011-2012   2.829
2012-2013   2.647

Gardner   
2010-2011   1.2
2011-2012   2.7
2012-2013   2.8

Blue was a good defense rebounding guard. Blue out rebounded Gardner on the defensive end on a per game basis in 2 of his three years.  Gardner should have gotten more rebounds on the defensive end.  Gardner did get more offensive rebounds per game but that is to be expected. Blue did play 10MPG more than DG his first year and 6 MPG more his second year. Based on who we had I would expect more minutes to be available for OX but he didn't get the same minutes as Blue which tells me Blue earned his PT.

Henry S.  - What measure are you using to say DG had a better freshman year when he only played nine minutes.  Blue played more so he had to have more of an impact.

I will also add that Blue outscored Ox by 171pts in the three years they were together.

[GGGG]

LOL - Except a guy like you...

Except I wouldn't take Hawk over Lewis, so your assumptions about me and my thought process are obviously off.

[PaintTouches]

--goes off topic--

Don't get me wrong, #BANE is the most exciting player Marquette has this year and very well might be its best, but let's cool those Burton v Blue defensive comparisons.

As a freshman, Van gave up 127 points in 160 possessions defensively per Synergy for a .794 ppp, a mark in the 67% and one deemed Very Good.

Bane, in just over half the possessions Blue faced, gave up .977 ppp (84 points in 86 possessions). This was in the 21st percentile and deemed Below Average. In other words, he was significantly worse, in significantly fewer time.

Blue played 19.0 mpg despite his offense. Bane played 12.6 mpg despite his defense. They were completely inverse of each other.

And as for the whole disruptive factor, Blue had 33 steals to Bane's 35. I realize Blue played a lot more minutes (thus the steal rate discrepancy), but at the end of the day, Blue was head and shoulders the better defender. It's not even debatable.

--end--     

[ATL MU Warrior]

--goes off topic--

Don't get me wrong, #BANE is the most exciting player Marquette has this year and very well might be its best, but let's cool those Burton v Blue defensive comparisons.

As a freshman, Van gave up 127 points in 160 possessions defensively per Synergy for a .794 ppp, a mark in the 67% and one deemed Very Good.

Bane, in just over half the possessions Blue faced, gave up .977 ppp (84 points in 86 possessions). This was in the 21st percentile and deemed Below Average. In other words, he was significantly worse, in significantly fewer time.

Blue played 19.0 mpg despite his offense. Bane played 12.6 mpg despite his defense. They were completely inverse of each other.

And as for the whole disruptive factor, Blue had 33 steals to Bane's 35. I realize Blue played a lot more minutes (thus the steal rate discrepancy), but at the end of the day, Blue was head and shoulders the better defender. It's not even debatable.

--end--     

Would love to see these same numbers for Vander and Davante...

[Henry Sugar]

Here are the number of defense rebs per game for both in the years they were together.  

Blue
2010-2011    1.973 (defensive rebounding rate of 11.8%)
2011-2012    2.829 (dr% of 11.7%)
2012-2013    2.647 (dr% of 9.3%)

Gardner   
2010-2011    1.2 (defensive rebounding rate of 14.6%)
2011-2012    2.7 (dr% of 15.1%)
2012-2013    2.8 (dr% of 14.9%)

Blue was a good defense rebounding guard. Blue out rebounded Gardner on the defensive end on a per game basis in 2 of his three years.  Gardner should have gotten more rebounds on the defensive end.  Gardner did get more offensive rebounds per game but that is to be expected. Blue did play 10MPG more than DG his first year and 6 MPG more his second year. Based on who we had I would expect more minutes to be available for OX but he didn't get the same minutes as Blue which tells me Blue earned his PT.

I added the per-minute defensive rebounding stats. Yes, Blue was a good defensive rebounding guard. On a per-minute basis, Gardner was a better overall defensive rebounder. As he should be.

Henry S.  - What measure are you using to say DG had a better freshman year when he only played nine minutes.  Blue played more so he had to have more of an impact.

Gardner played 9 minutes per game. Blue played more minutes, but his overall impact was largely negative. He was inefficient and turned the ball over a ton.

I will also add that Blue outscored Ox by 171pts in the three years they were together.

Scorers are overvalued.

[Henry Sugar]

--goes off topic--

Don't get me wrong, #BANE is the most exciting player Marquette has this year and very well might be its best, but let's cool those Burton v Blue defensive comparisons.

As a freshman, Van gave up 127 points in 160 possessions defensively per Synergy for a .794 ppp, a mark in the 67% and one deemed Very Good.

Bane, in just over half the possessions Blue faced, gave up .977 ppp (84 points in 86 possessions). This was in the 21st percentile and deemed Below Average. In other words, he was significantly worse, in significantly fewer time.

Blue played 19.0 mpg despite his offense. Bane played 12.6 mpg despite his defense. They were completely inverse of each other.

And as for the whole disruptive factor, Blue had 33 steals to Bane's 35. I realize Blue played a lot more minutes (thus the steal rate discrepancy), but at the end of the day, Blue was head and shoulders the better defender. It's not even debatable.

--end--     

A. If only I had access to Synergy. /sigh

B. I'm assuming steals are counted in the defensive ppp. Meaning in 86 possessions, 33 of them ended in a steal. 38% of the time he stole the ball? Which means that in the remaining 53 possessions, opponents scored 1.58 ppp. That's not good. That means pretty much either Bane stole the ball or the opponent scored. Can that be right?

C. The same comparison says Blue stole the ball in 21% of defensive possessions while he was on the court, resulting in opponents scoring 1.02 ppp on remaining possessions. Again, is that right?

Would love to see these same numbers for Vander and Davante...

Agreed

[NersEllenson]

Except I wouldn't take Hawk over Lewis, so your assumptions about me and my thought process are obviously off.

Sorry, your posting history on this topic and our PG and SG position last season suggest the opposite.

[NersEllenson]

--goes off topic--

Don't get me wrong, #BANE is the most exciting player Marquette has this year and very well might be its best, but let's cool those Burton v Blue defensive comparisons.

As a freshman, Van gave up 127 points in 160 possessions defensively per Synergy for a .794 ppp, a mark in the 67% and one deemed Very Good.

Bane, in just over half the possessions Blue faced, gave up .977 ppp (84 points in 86 possessions). This was in the 21st percentile and deemed Below Average. In other words, he was significantly worse, in significantly fewer time.

Blue played 19.0 mpg despite his offense. Bane played 12.6 mpg despite his defense. They were completely inverse of each other.

And as for the whole disruptive factor, Blue had 33 steals to Bane's 35. I realize Blue played a lot more minutes (thus the steal rate discrepancy), but at the end of the day, Blue was head and shoulders the better defender. It's not even debatable.

--end--     

Can you provide the same numbers for Derrick Wilson and John Dawson from last season?  As I recall they were 1 and 2 on the team in PPP rating - and felt they were both below .794

But back on topic, as juniors:

Gardner:  Top 100 in 9 offensive categories, 0 in defensive categories

Blue:  Top 100 in 0 offensive categories, 0 defensive categories.

 

And PS.  Having a legitimate threat in the post, that Gardner was....makes life as a guard a hell of a lot easier.  Gardner was one of the most efficient big men in the country, and effective, in all of his years at MU.  And as we know last season, his O Rating was higher in games he played 30+ minutes, than those he played less than 30.  Buzz, for whatever reason, simply never wanted to give him 30-35 minutes.

[PaintTouches]

B. I'm assuming steals are counted in the defensive ppp. Meaning in 86 possessions, 33 of them ended in a steal. 38% of the time he stole the ball? Which means that in the remaining 53 possessions, opponents scored 1.58 ppp. That's not good. That means pretty much either Bane stole the ball or the opponent scored. Can that be right?

C. The same comparison says Blue stole the ball in 21% of defensive possessions while he was on the court, resulting in opponents scoring 1.02 ppp on remaining possessions. Again, is that right?

I'll try to do the full synergy comparison later tonight of Blue v. Gardner.

As to these questions, it's not quite that cut and dry. The Synergy people are very literal about defensive possessions, so they would only count it as a turnover during a possession if it was a strip of the attacking you are currently guarding. If you jump into a passing lane (or even take a charge), it wouldn't be a defensive possession. Without going through every possession, I wouldn't be able to give you the exact details. I know Bane was weak, there is no way he gave up 1.58 ppp.

[BallBoy]

Gardner played 9 minutes per game. Blue played more minutes, but his overall impact was largely negative. He was inefficient and turned the ball over a ton.

Define a ton.  Blue turned the ball over 1.4 times a game as a freshman. 
Wade turned it over 3 times a game in his "freshman" year.  His TO per minute is higher than Blue's
Cadougan turned it over 1.6 times his first full year in similar minutes
McNeal turned it over 3.8 times.  His turnover per minute is higher than Blue's
Wesley Matthews was 2.3 times.  His turnover per minute is higher than Blue's
Dwight Buycks was 1.7 times.  His turnover per minute was similar to Blue's
John Dawson was .7 but his turnovers per minute is higher than Blue's

Both Crowder and Butler had spectacular turnover rates.  So by a ton you mean less than some of the better players at Marq?

[Henry Sugar]

Define a ton.

Blue's turnover rate as a freshman was 22%. Average is about 18.5%. By comparison, Gardner's TO rate as a frosh was 16.4%.