NCAA...a crapshoot as always

[hairy worthen]

I know you've dug your heels in on this one, and will likely not back down.

But...if you're as reasonable as you'd like to claim to be, you'd have to admit it's somewhere between crap-shoot and talented teams going on a good run at the right time.

Crap-shoot implies anybody could win.  Certainly the best team doesn't always win, but crap-shoot implies the worst team would have a chance to win.  I certainly don't think that's true.

It is a crap shoot in the sense that any team can lose any 1 given game, we see that over and over again. However, you have to be a damn good team to win 6 in a row, so it's unlikely a very low seed could win it.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I know you've dug your heels in on this one, and will likely not back down.

But...if you're as reasonable as you'd like to claim to be, you'd have to admit it's somewhere between crap-shoot and talented teams going on a good run at the right time.

Crap-shoot implies anybody could win.  Certainly the best team doesn't always win, but crap-shoot implies the worst team would have a chance to win.  I certainly don't think that's true.

I don't think I've ever said differently.  You have to be good to get far, but being good is not enough in a tournament like this.  Teams are seeded for a reason, because they are deemed to be better (even if it is slight) than others. 

Do I think all 68 teams have an equal chance to win....nope.  Do I think more often than not the "best team" doesn't win the title...yup.  Do I think more often than not ONE of the best teams usually wins....yup, barely...but yes.   Do think a very good (second echelon team, sometimes third echelon team) has more than a fighter's chance...absolutely.

So I don't think we are disagreeing.  It's the people here that say the NCAA = best team that are off their rocker.  It never has.  It is a tournament champion.  Sometimes the best team wins, often it doesn't.  Even Al McGuire said that about his very own 1977 team.

[ChicosBailBonds]

It is a crap shoot in the sense that any team can lose any 1 given game, we see that over and over again. However, you have to be a damn good team to win 6 in a row, so it's unlikely a very low seed could win it.

Correct, though a mid level seed can.  Watch Monday night. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

Preseason #1 in title game.

#2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #8, #9, #11, #12, #13, #14, #15, #16, #17, #19, #21, #22, #23, #24, #25 couldn't even get to the Final Four.

#17 (Marquette)  couldn't even get to the NIT

Crap Shoot. 

[Lennys Tap]

All sporting events are a crapshoot. Everybody with a brain knows that by the second grade. A moron is somebody who posts hundreds of times screaming that the NCAA tournament (after his #1 seeded Hoosiers are bounced early) has to be the biggest one despite the evidence saying it's the NHL and the MLB playoffs.

[ChicosBailBonds]

All sporting events are a crapshoot. Everybody with a brain knows that by the second grade. A moron is somebody who posts hundreds of times screaming that the NCAA tournament (after his #1 seeded Hoosiers are bounced early) has to be the biggest one despite the evidence saying it's the NHL and the MLB playoffs.

As for you first comment, you may want to go back to read what you said about crapshoot and the NCAA a few years ago here....did you get through the second grade?  LOL

Only a moron would bring up MLB playoffs, especially when the team is different each game.  Or is your version of the MLB playoffs where a starting pitcher pitches every game.  Does Clayton Kershaw pitch every game?  Verlander?  Etc.  No.  Thus, each game is a different team, unlike college basketball or the NBA where 99% of the time its the same starting 5, same rotations generally.  

The NHL, their playoff format has changed so much through the years...some years the reseed, some years they haven't, this year even more radically different.  Plus, the top seeds are based on overall record when the you have teams in weak divisions that play their own division more than others piling up points to get the best record, even though they aren't the best team.  Don't confuse best team with best record, especially in a league where the scheduling is not balanced.

But, just to follow-up on the NHL.  In 1994 the NHL changed the playoff seeding system again.  Since then, a Division Champion has made the Stanley Cup Finals every year but once, and has won the Cup 14 of 18 times.   http://www.puckreport.com/2009/04/playoff-seeding-and-stanley-cup-wins.html

Not nearly the crap shoot you make it out

Glad you got a chance to bring in your favorite coach again....it's like a disease with you.

[HoyaPotter]

7 Seed gets to the championship game

Only one number 1 seed made the Final Four and doesn't make the final

UCONN barely won their opening game, going to OT against St. Joe's.

Anything can happen. 

Not really.

Kentucky has 8 lottery picks on their squad.

They've been in the final four 3 out of the last 4 years.
Have been in 2 NCAA finals and won one with the possibility of 2 championships in 4 years.

Seems rather predictable that the preseason #1 is in the final game.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Not really.

Kentucky has 8 lottery picks on their squad.

They've been in the final four 3 out of the last 4 years.
Have been in 2 NCAA finals and won one with the possibility of 2 championships in 4 years.

Seems rather predictable that the preseason #1 is in the final game.

LOL...that must be why they were an 8 seed.

[HoyaPotter]

LOL...that must be why they were an 8 seed.

Yeah they are really a cinderella team like Butler, Villanova, VCU, or Wichita State.  How wonderful it is that Kentucky has proven once again that the little guy can make the championship game.

[Lennys Tap]

As for you first comment, you may want to go back to read what you said about crapshoot and the NCAA a few years ago here....did you get through the second grade?  LOL

Only a moron would bring up MLB playoffs, especially when the team is different each game.  Or is your version of the MLB playoffs where a starting pitcher pitches every game.  Does Clayton Kershaw pitch every game?  Verlander?  Etc.  No.  Thus, each game is a different team, unlike college basketball or the NBA where 99% of the time its the same starting 5, same rotations generally.  

The NHL, their playoff format has changed so much through the years...some years the reseed, some years they haven't, this year even more radically different.  Plus, the top seeds are based on overall record when the you have teams in weak divisions that play their own division more than others piling up points to get the best record, even though they aren't the best team.  Don't confuse best team with best record, especially in a league where the scheduling is not balanced.

But, just to follow-up on the NHL.  In 1994 the NHL changed the playoff seeding system again.  Since then, a Division Champion has made the Stanley Cup Finals every year but once, and has won the Cup 14 of 18 times.   http://www.puckreport.com/2009/04/playoff-seeding-and-stanley-cup-wins.html

Not nearly the crap shoot you make it out

Glad you got a chance to bring in your favorite coach again....it's like a disease with you.

Blah,blah,blah. Derp, derp, derp. 18,300 mind numbing, repetitive after repetitive after repetitive, name dropping, please, please, please look at me, why's everybody always pickin' on me, secret sources, more name dropping, anti juco, pro traditional, bring back the 50s, inane chatter about Mom, Dad, wife and kids, etc., etc., etc. posts. And you probably have 1000 more posts on TC than anyone else here. Gimme a break. Give it a rest.

[mechaghidorah]

LOL...that must be why they were an 8 seed.

Isn't there a stat out there that shows that preseason number 1's do very well in the tourney, even if their end ranking isn't great?

[HoyaPotter]

That little school from Lexington, Kentucky sure proved that anyone can make the NCAA finals.
Against all odds.

Kentucky shocks the nation by reaching the championship game in Dallas. In a large arena and before a crowd bigger than any they've seen, the Kentucky players face long odds to defeat a team from Madison, Wisconsin whose players are taller and more athletic. But with Chitwood scoring at the last second, tiny Kentucky takes home the 2014 NCAA national championship.

Musical accompaniment:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnaP3k6E-M4

[ChicosBailBonds]

Yeah they are really a cinderella team like Butler, Villanova, VCU, or Wichita State.  How wonderful it is that Kentucky has proven once again that the little guy can make the championship game.

Who is calling them a cinderella team?   I had them beating Wichita State, so I certainly don't think they are devoid of talent, but let's not pretend they were the best team this year or even the best team in their own league.  They weren't.  Got hot at the end of the year, they are on a tear right now and finally playing like they are capable of...though it took a shot with 5.7 seconds left in the game to finally seal the deal for them.  The margin is very thin.

[ChicosBailBonds]

That little school from Lexington, Kentucky sure proved that anyone can make the NCAA finals.
Against all odds.

Kentucky shocks the nation by reaching the championship game in Dallas. In a large arena and before a crowd bigger than any they've seen, the Kentucky players face long odds to defeat a team from Madison, Wisconsin whose players are taller and more athletic. But with Chitwood scoring at the last second, tiny Kentucky takes home the 2014 NCAA national championship.

Musical accompaniment:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnaP3k6E-M4

You make it sound like Kentucky won by 25 points considering how talented they were...I guess they were just toying with them until 5.7 seconds left.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Oh Lenny, you didn't like what you wrote about crap shoot in the past ....especially after tonight saying anyone that doesn't think it isn't a crapshoot is in the 2nd grade?  LOL.  Kind of funny, isn't it.  I love the search function here, it's good stuff.

Look, I realize the last year has been really hard for you with the messiah crapping the bed for you and all of us, especially hard for you the last 10 days....drip drip drip....it's got to be devastating for you.  I don't know what you are going to do with the Buzz shrine at the house or the tattoo, but there are ways to quietly get rid of that stuff.  It can be done, with all the privacy you desire.

The good news is that since you had to give up on your favorite program growing up, you can now adopt a new program in Virginia Tech to fill the void.  See, you come out a winner.

[HoyaPotter]

You make it sound like Kentucky won by 25 points considering how talented they were...I guess they were just toying with them until 5.7 seconds left.

They are too talented and athletic.  They are actually under performing to their talent level because they really have little team work or fundamentally sound ball but are just athletically superior.

Honestly they should be winning these games by 10+ points but sound teams like Michigan, Wichita State, Wisconsin are playing lights out to keep it close.

But it's not a surprise at all that they are in the final.  That was actually very predictable and goes against your theory that the tournament is a crap shoot.

[ChicosBailBonds]

They are too talented and athletic.  They are actually under performing to their talent level because they really have little team work or fundamentally sound ball but are just athletically superior.

Honestly they should be winning these games by 10+ points but sound teams like Michigan, Wichita State, Wisconsin are playing lights out to keep it close.

But it's not a surprise at all that they are in the final.  That was actually very predictable and goes against your theory that the tournament is a crap shoot.

No is going to dispute their talent level.  However, to say it is VERY PREDICTABLE is one of the biggest crocks of crap I have ever read.

If that were the case, the ratings systems, Nate Silver, the oddsmakers, etc, etc would have made that VERY PREDICTABLE prediction. 

Let's not get your hyperbole in the way.  A very talented team, got hot at the right time, and still barely won the last three games....the margin of error very thin.  It's a crap shoot and if it was so predictable, let's see your bracket.  LOL

[HoyaPotter]

No is going to dispute their talent level.  However, to say it is VERY PREDICTABLE is one of the biggest crocks of crap I have ever read.

If that were the case, the ratings systems, Nate Silver, the oddsmakers, etc, etc would have made that VERY PREDICTABLE prediction. 

Let's not get your hyperbole in the way.  A very talented team, got hot at the right time, and still barely won the last three games....the margin of error very thin.  It's a crap shoot and if it was so predictable, let's see your bracket.  LOL

Not a crap shoot at all.  That's hyperbole if anything.

U-Con and Kentucky are two of the ultra elite programs in college basketball.  After monday they will have won 3 out of the last 4 national titles between them.  Think about that.  It's just the usual suspects.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Not a crap shoot at all.  That's hyperbole if anything.

U-Con and Kentucky are two of the ultra elite programs in college basketball.  After monday they will have won 3 out of the last 4 national titles between them.  Think about that.  It's just the usual suspects.

LOL.

So is UCLA, Arizona, Michigan State, Louisville, Duke, Kansas, etc....none of them are playing tomorrow night.  UCONN and Kentucky are talented teams, just as many other top programs are talented. Neither of those teams were earth shakers during the regular season, but they got hot at the right time.  Hell, a few years ago UCONN won it all after being an 11 seed in our conference...think about it.  Any quality team can get hot for 4, 5, 6 games and make a run, whether you are Duke, Butler, VCU, George Mason, Kentucky, Marquette, or whomever.

I'll go with the experts like Jay Bilas, Coach K, Coach McGuire, Coach Izzo, etc, etc that have said it is a crapshoot (or similar vernacular if not using that exact term). 

[HoyaPotter]

LOL.

So is UCLA, Arizona, Michigan State, Louisville, Duke, Kansas, etc....none of them are playing tomorrow night.  UCONN and Kentucky are talented teams, just as many other top programs are talented. Neither of those teams were earth shakers during the regular season, but they got hot at the right time.  Hell, a few years ago UCONN won it all after being an 11 seed in our conference...think about it.  Any quality team can get hot for 4, 5, 6 games and make a run, whether you are Duke, Butler, VCU, George Mason, Kentucky, Marquette, or whomever.

I'll go with the experts like Jay Bilas, Coach K, Coach McGuire, Coach Izzo, etc, etc that have said it is a crapshoot (or similar vernacular if not using that exact term). 

LOL,  Jay "The Big East is dead" Bilas.  Jay "VCU should absolutely not be in the tournament" Bilas.
That's your authority.  LOL.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Biggest crapshoot in all of sports

http://www.sfexaminer.com/sanfrancisco/ncaa-tournament-built-on-gambling-not-finding-the-best-team/Content?oid=2320718


There are literally 100's if not 1000's of articles over the past 15 years that say the same thing, with plenty of great quotes from current and former coaches, analysts, experts, players, etc. 

[MikeDeanesDarkGlasses]

Biggest crapshoot in all of sports

http://www.sfexaminer.com/sanfrancisco/ncaa-tournament-built-on-gambling-not-finding-the-best-team/Content?oid=2320718


There are literally 100's if not 1000's of articles over the past 15 years that say the same thing, with plenty of great quotes from current and former coaches, analysts, experts, players, etc. 

I would agree.  UConn and Wisconsin each had 2 home games in the tourney, which definitely helped each time out.  Look at how many games came down to a possession or free throw.... like tonight.  There is definitely an element of luck in the deal.  Seriously..... Harrison with 3 consecutive game winning shots?  How many simulations do you do, of the NCAA tournament and have that happening?  That's why it is the best post season event.

[HoyaPotter]

Biggest crapshoot in all of sports

http://www.sfexaminer.com/sanfrancisco/ncaa-tournament-built-on-gambling-not-finding-the-best-team/Content?oid=2320718


There are literally 100's if not 1000's of articles over the past 15 years that say the same thing, with plenty of great quotes from current and former coaches, analysts, experts, players, etc. 

That's a pretty naive way to look at it.

Since 1991,
Only 12 schools have won the NCAA championship in 23 years.
Duke 4 times
Kentucky 3 times (Pending +1)
UNC 3 times
UConn 3 times (Pending +1 )
Florida 2 times
Kansas
MSU
Arizona
UCLA
Lousville
(Arkansas, Maryland)

If you picked the 10 traditional elite basketball schools (minus Arkansas and Maryland), you would have a 91% chance of picking the national champion right.  That is hardly a crap shoot.

Your premise is basically that 7th seed UConn proves your crapshoot theory when history dictates otherwise.  If you've watched Big East basketball at all you should know what UConn is capable of.  They were 18th in the nation this year.  They were good last year but were ineligible for post season play because of the APR scandal.  It's hardly this fairy tale that you are trying to make UConn and UK success seem like.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Uhm, no.

My premise is that the nature of the tournament dictates the randomness of the ultimate results.   You have an off night, you're gone.  It isn't a best of 5 or best of 7.  In the NBA, 85% of the time you know who is likely going to win it.

You're looking at it through history to say these certain teams win more than others.  That's fine, and you're not wrong.  But you are arguing something totally different.  In some years, those teams are truly the best teams or one of the best teams, while in other years they are not.  I'm looking at it from a year by year basis.

THIS YEAR, only one of the #1 seeds made the Final Four.  None made the championship game.  Since seeding started, barely 50% of the time does a #1 seed (meaning one of 4 teams) win the title.  Note, I said a #1 seed, not the overall #1 seed, let alone the #1 ranked team going into the tournament. 

You are going to have years where the best team wins.  More often than not, that isn't the case.  That is what Bilas, McGuire, etc are saying.  The best team doesn't always win.  Supposedly, the experts said Florida was the best team according to the polls.  The stats guys like Nate Silver said it was Louisville or Michigan State to win it.  So on and so forth.  Not going to happen.  Some years it does, most years it doesn't.

How many times has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four?  Or three #1 seeds?   Did you know this is the 5th consecutive year where only one number seed has made it to the Final Four?

[MikeDeanesDarkGlasses]

Uhm, no.

My premise is that the nature of the tournament dictates the randomness of the ultimate results.   You have an off night, you're gone.  It isn't a best of 5 or best of 7.  In the NBA, 85% of the time you know who is likely going to win it.

You're looking at it through history to say these certain teams win more than others.  That's fine, and you're not wrong.  But you are arguing something totally different.  In some years, those teams are truly the best teams or one of the best teams, while in other years they are not.  I'm looking at it from a year by year basis.

THIS YEAR, only one of the #1 seeds made the Final Four.  None made the championship game.  Since seeding started, barely 50% of the time does a #1 seed (meaning one of 4 teams) win the title.  Note, I said a #1 seed, not the overall #1 seed, let alone the #1 ranked team going into the tournament. 

You are going to have years where the best team wins.  More often than not, that isn't the case.  That is what Bilas, McGuire, etc are saying.  The best team doesn't always win.  Supposedly, the experts said Florida was the best team according to the polls.  The stats guys like Nate Silver said it was Louisville or Michigan State to win it.  So on and so forth.  Not going to happen.  Some years it does, most years it doesn't.

How many times has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four?  Or three #1 seeds?   Did you know this is the 5th consecutive year where only one number seed has made it to the Final Four?

Don't forget that this is the first year in about 9 years, I believe, that a KenPOM top 20 defense/offense efficiency team will not win the NCAA championship.