Let's Just Get This Out of the Way

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24466354/hirings-and-firings-2014-college-basketball-coaching-changes


Buzz isn't going anywere but here is where you can keep track of the coaching carosuel.

For what it's worth, several names are mentioned with the Auburn job. Buzz isn't one of them. No names mentioned with the South Florida or VT job.

[ChicosBailBonds]

A bunch of guys on that list that had good gigs in former lives but weren't able to make it stick. Some were considered the up and comers in the mid majors and hired as major coaches.

Braun at Cal.  Jarvis at GW and St. John's if I recall.  Orr at Seton Hall.  Herrion at C of C.  Heath at Kent State and Arkansas.  Buzz Peterson at Tennessee. 

[mattyv1908]

http://tbo.com/sports/colleges/usf-bulls/usf-basketball-coaching-search-in-discovery-phase-20140316/

Can't read too much into these articles, but I found it interesting the term 'reported interest from' as the phrase used to describe Buzz's involvement with the story.

While I don't feel Buzz will be leaving, is it possible we're underestimating the effects of realignment and how it affects the Big East in terms of prestige and tradition?

Taking nothing away from Marquette or any team in the current Big East, but I don't see how your conference wouldn't suffer losing the likes of Syracuse, UConn and Louisville let alone the other perennial strong teams in the conference's previous configuration.

I'd venture to say Syracuse/Uconn/Louisville > Marquette/Georgetown/Villanova > Creighton/Xavier/Butler.

We replaced the three best schools from the old conference with three schools with less clout than the three best remaining programs returning to the conference.

Maybe part of the allure of coaching at MU had more to do with them being in the great 16 team league that was the Big East and less to do with the program itself.

I'm speculating of course but that's the only rationale that could possibly explain why Buzz would have 'reported interest in' the USF job, as in he's being proactive now instead of reactive later.

[mattyv1908]

I'll add that while I'm not trying to be all doom and gloom, let's honestly look at next year's Big East schools.

Creighton will be this year's Butler after the loss of McDermott.
Butler is in full rebuild mode after Stevens put together a solid nucleus that has now run it's course.
Marquette is in a transition year with a wide array of potential outcomes.
Providence has made good strides but it's tough to overcome the loss of a player like Cotton.
DePaul has some good young players but they're a year or two away from being a serious threat to competing.
Seton Hall is headed in the right direction and it wouldn't surprise me if they were competing for the league title.
Georgetown has some serious holes to fill with their departures but they should have a good crop of incoming talent.
St. Johns is chalk full of talent but Lavin has never been a good coach so whether they realize their potential is up for grabs.
Xavier has the best legitimate NCAA track record over time of the three BE imports but they have serious holes to fill as well.
Villanova will likely be the best team in the BE next year out of the gate and should return to the NCAAT.

Going into next year, it's easy to see how 5-6 BE teams have no real contention to make the tournament.  It's far more likely the conference sees only 2 bids than it does 5 bids.  My guess would be 3.

If the Big East is only a 3 bid league next season after getting 4 teams in it's first year following major realignment is it really a stretch to think that some coaches may see this as a conference in decline?

[Norm]

If the Big East is only a 3 bid league next season after getting 4 teams in it's first year following major realignment is it really a stretch to think that some coaches may see this as a conference in decline?

The only problem with that is that some of the coaches who may see this as a conference in decline are coaching teams that have "declined." JTIII and Buzz have had rough years. Its not like GU and MU are going gang busters but everyone else around them is tanking - they are contributors to the decline. Its hard to use complain about the league's decline when you're contributing to it.

[mattyv1908]

The only problem with that is that some of the coaches who may see this as a conference in decline are coaching teams that have "declined." JTIII and Buzz have had rough years. Its not like GU and MU are going gang busters but everyone else around them is tanking - they are contributors to the decline. Its hard to use complain about the league's decline when you're contributing to it.

I would mostly agree but JTIII should be under much more scrutiny than Buzz as his team has been the most disappointing NCAAT team the last five seasons.  Marquette has had one down year but I'm worried about the future.

[CTWarrior]

http://tbo.com/sports/colleges/usf-bulls/usf-basketball-coaching-search-in-discovery-phase-20140316/

Can't read too much into these articles, but I found it interesting the term 'reported interest from' as the phrase used to describe Buzz's involvement with the story.

I'd give that argument serious consideration with regards to Virginia Tech or Auburn, but South Florida?  The AAC is Memphis, Connecticut, Cincinnati, SMU, Temple and a lot of basketball crud.  Don't see how conference affiliation would help in that regard.  Now the ACC and SEC are certainly more powerful and stable than the Big East, so if that sort of thing were important to Buzz, it would be a job in a conference like that (Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, ACC, SEC) that I would be worried about. 

Not saying Buzz wouldn't leave for USF, because I have no idea what the man may be thinking or what his plans are, but I doubt it would be because of conference affiliation.

[avid1010]

the real question here...does jerry wainright return to UNC-Wilmington...our team photos would never be the same.

[WarriorFan]

If the Big East is only a 3 bid league next season after getting 4 teams in it's first year following major realignment is it really a stretch to think that some coaches may see this as a conference in decline?

Add SLU and Gonzaga and we're instantly a 5 bid conference.  Maybe 6 if the middle plays a strong schedule and wins.

[mu03eng]

Going into next year, it's easy to see how 5-6 BE teams have no real contention to make the tournament.  It's far more likely the conference sees only 2 bids than it does 5 bids.  My guess would be 3.

If the Big East is only a 3 bid league next season after getting 4 teams in it's first year following major realignment is it really a stretch to think that some coaches may see this as a conference in decline?

It's far to early to speculate but one thing to keep in mind is the Big East will have the top 1 or 2 recruiting class as a conference in the country.  If the recruits are coming the quality of play will as well.  You very well may turn out to be right but I just don't see enough information/evidence one way or another.  This year's draft class will be outstanding so the rest of NCAA basketball may "come down" to the Big East level.  Who knows, we'll see.

[tower912]

This year will be the outlier.   Going forward, at least in the intermediate and medium term, the Big East will continue to be the top non-football playing conference in the country.   If the BCS conferences split off and destroy the NCAA tournament, then all bets are off.   

[Benny B]

Add SLU and Gonzaga and we're instantly a 5 bid conference.  Maybe 6 if the middle plays a strong schedule and wins.

I'm going to stick to my early instincts and say I'd rather take SLU and Wichita State, and be a perennial 6-bid conference.

Remember, most teams are still on multi-year OOC contracts, i.e. many of the OOC games throughout the conference this year were committed to when the Big East was still 16 teams... going forward, the conference - as a whole - has made a commitment to improving the OOC matchups... so the middle 6 are going to be playing a stronger schedule regardless because the entire conference will be playing a stronger schedule.

Gonzaga will be a defacto member to the extent that you'll likely see at least one or two OOC matchups between the Zags and the Big East every year on some semblance of a rotation.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'd give that argument serious consideration with regards to Virginia Tech or Auburn, but South Florida?  The AAC is Memphis, Connecticut, Cincinnati, SMU, Temple and a lot of basketball crud.  Don't see how conference affiliation would help in that regard.  Now the ACC and SEC are certainly more powerful and stable than the Big East, so if that sort of thing were important to Buzz, it would be a job in a conference like that (Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, ACC, SEC) that I would be worried about. 

Not saying Buzz wouldn't leave for USF, because I have no idea what the man may be thinking or what his plans are, but I doubt it would be because of conference affiliation.

+1

Also, the AAC is not safe from realignment. The BCS conferences will eventually want to expand again. The Big 12/ACC have grant of rights. The PAC 12 is geographicall insulated. And the Big 10/SEC are at the top of the food chain. That leaves the AAC as the ripest harvest for these bigger conferences. The likes of UCONN, Memphis, and Cincy will be gobbled up one day.

And while the SEC is safe from realignment, it's not like the schools are much better there. You get to play Florida and Kentucky but after that? They were a three bid league despite having 14 teams. The BEast has more prestige.

The only remote threat here is Virginia Tech. And that place is a mess.

Meanwhile, we are insulated from realignment. We are at the top of the food chain of the basketball only schools. No one will leave us unless the BEast kicks them out.

[Benny B]

This year will be the outlier.   Going forward, at least in the intermediate and medium term, the Big East will continue to be the top non-football playing conference in the country.   If the BCS conferences split off and destroy the NCAA tournament, then all bets are off.  

I still fail to see how the BCS conferences are going to enhance their athletic programs (overall, not just in football) by splitting off.  Every BCS team is dependent upon non-BCS schools in all sports, including football.  Do you think OSU or Michigan is going to want a non-conference football schedule that includes games against the Pac-12, Big-12, SEC and ACC?  How would you like to be Wisconsin and have Alabama out of the gate, followed by Florida State, Stanford and Oklahoma?

Then you have basketball -- there is no way that the BCS conferences are going to collectively walk away from over $100M in proven (read: real, known, and contractually guaranteed) tournament money on mere speculation that they'll be able to recreate their own tournament with proportionate prestige.

And don't overlook the political & legal fallout... if the BCS seeks to exclude the rest of D-I from football and basketball, D.C. is going to be flooded with anti-trust lawsuits, class-actions, congressional hearings and the spontaneous combustion of any server tethered to the change.org domain.

Meanwhile, we are insulated from realignment. We are at the top of the food chain of the basketball only schools. No one will leave us unless the BEast kicks them out.

I'm perfectly fine with being the polar bear.  We'll happily concede the "king of the beasts" title to the lions of the BCS, but we're definitely the kings of our own domain, we can put up one hell of a fight in an individual match-up, and they're exponentially more scared of encroaching on our turf than we are of encroaching on theirs.

[Tugg Speedman]

Let me summarize this thread ... Buzz is going to leave because his thinks the NBE sucks?

In the history of the NCAA has a coach ever left his school because of how he perceives his conference, rather than how he perceives his team?  Crean left because Shumpert made him believe their was a recruiting ceiling here, nothing about the conference.  Brad Stevens took a better job, he jump to a storied NBA franchise.

I think this is complete BS.  If Buzz leaves its because he perceives a deficiency at MU that does not exist at his next job.  Or he takes what he beleives is clearly a better job.  That decision will never involve the perception of the conference.

[Benny B]

Let me summarize this thread ... Buzz is going to leave because his thinks the NBE sucks?

In the history of the NCAA has a coach ever left his school because of how he perceives his conference, rather than how he perceives his team?  Crean left because Shumpert made him believe their was a recruiting ceiling here, nothing about the conference.  Brad Stevens took a better job, he jump to a storied NBA franchise.

I think this is complete BS.  If Buzz leaves its because he perceives a deficiency at MU that does not exist at his next job.  Or he takes what he beleives is clearly a better job.  That decision will never involve the perception of the conference.

Agreed 100%.  If you're a basketball coach, and you want the perpetual guarantee of resources and attention that only a basketball school can provide, the Big East is your Valhalla.

[mattyv1908]

Let me summarize this thread ... Buzz is going to leave because his thinks the NBE sucks?

In the history of the NCAA has a coach ever left his school because of how he perceives his conference, rather than how he perceives his team?  Crean left because Shumpert made him believe their was a recruiting ceiling here, nothing about the conference.  Brad Stevens took a better job, he jump to a storied NBA franchise.

I think this is complete BS.  If Buzz leaves its because he perceives a deficiency at MU that does not exist at his next job.  Or he takes what he beleives is clearly a better job.  That decision will never involve the perception of the conference.

You don't have to look more than a couple years into the past to see this doesn't hold water.  Just look at what some current BE coaches along with former BE coaches now coaching former BE teams in both the ACC and AAC have said about the importance of playing in the BE at the time.  The conference you play in has big time ramifications that absolutely impact the viability of a program.

Had the Big East upon it's original formation not had their initial splash (multiple championships, 3 in the final 4,etc) and continued success would it ever have been considered a power conference?  Of course not.

Did Marquette's stature in the college basketball landscape not greatly improve when they joined the Big East?  You're lying to yourself if you think it didn't.

This conference as it is currently configured has to be viewed for what it is now, not what some other schools made it in the past.

And stop building straw man arguments.  Nobody said Buzz was leaving in this discussion at all.  I specifically said I didn't think he's leaving.

You've mastered hyperbole quite well.

[DienerTime34]

Pearl to Auburn. Probably means Buzz to ESPN to replace him. ESPN has a great team with young and veteran talent, nationally televised every game, and deep pockets of owner Walt Disney. He'll do anything for a winner. Buzz is good as gone.

[The Equalizer]

I still fail to see how the BCS conferences are going to enhance their athletic programs (overall, not just in football) by splitting off.  Every BCS team is dependent upon non-BCS schools in all sports, including football.  Do you think OSU or Michigan is going to want a non-conference football schedule that includes games against the Pac-12, Big-12, SEC and ACC?  How would you like to be Wisconsin and have Alabama out of the gate, followed by Florida State, Stanford and Oklahoma?

I think you're thinking too narrowly.  FBS + FCS.  158 total schools.  Gives you 90%+ of the money-earning basketball program, splits off 200 D1 basketball programs, most of which are money sucking, low-majors.   Still gives the likes of OSU and Michigan a tremendous number of options for their non-conference without resorting to Alabama or Wisconsin out of the gate.

But even barring that option, there would be nothing to stop the new association from permitting its members from schedling a certain number of games against NCAA members.

After all, the NCAA doesn't bar teams from scheduling D2 or D3 opponents.  Few of them do this from a practical perspective, but nothing would stop an Ohio State or Michigan from scheduling a lower-power team from outside its association.

Then you have basketball -- there is no way that the BCS conferences are going to collectively walk away from over $100M in proven (read: real, known, and contractually guaranteed) tournament money on mere speculation that they'll be able to recreate their own tournament with proportionate prestige.

An tournament that features Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina, UCLA, Indiana, Duke, etc. is going to suffer prestige and lack for a television contract when compared to one where the likes of Villanova and St. Louis represent the cream of the crop?   Hardly. 

Plus, I doubt that the CBS money is contractually guarnteed in the event that UK, KU, UNC, ULCA, IU, Duke, etc all leave.  I'm guessing there is a change of conditions clause that would unwind that contract pretty fast.

Plus, the new association could always invite participants from the old NCAA. 

And don't overlook the political & legal fallout... if the BCS seeks to exclude the rest of D-I from football and basketball, D.C. is going to be flooded with anti-trust lawsuits, class-actions, congressional hearings and the spontaneous combustion of any server tethered to the change.org domain.

If FBS+FCS leave the NCAA and form a 158 team all-sport association they aren't keeping anyone out.  If anything, they are providing their members a viable alternative to the NCAA, where all teams would be welcome to stay. 

They will simply set up a minimum requirement to have a football team with 85 scholarships, and probably some minimum stadium size requirement.  But that's no different than what the NCAA does or individual conferences do today.

If the DePauls and Marquettes and Xaviers of the world want to participate, all they have to do is start a football program and play in a 30,000 seat stadium.

[Tugg Speedman]

This conference as it is currently configured has to be viewed for what it is now, not what some other schools made it in the past.

Correct.  It is a 10  team conference with 7 or 8 schools that have the ability to make the NCAA each year (DePaul and Seton Hall have to prove themselves).  The schools pay coaches as much as any schools in the country and it has a lucrative TV contract with a major sports network that shows virtually ever game on national TV.

Conclusion, it is a major power conference.

This is the correct way to do it.

The incorrect way is to look at everyone roster for next year, assume everyone will suck (i.e., Butler) and conclude it is the next coming of the Horizon league, like this thread did at the top.

[mu03eng]

if the BCS seeks to exclude the rest of D-I from football and basketball, D.C. is going to be flooded with anti-trust lawsuits, class-actions, congressional hearings and the spontaneous combustion of any server tethered to the change.org domain.

Absolutely love this line, you get a gold star for the day 

[mu03eng]

I think you're thinking too narrowly.  FBS + FCS.  158 total schools.  Gives you 90%+ of the money-earning basketball program, splits off 200 D1 basketball programs, most of which are money sucking, low-majors.   Still gives the likes of OSU and Michigan a tremendous number of options for their non-conference without resorting to Alabama or Wisconsin out of the gate.

But even barring that option, there would be nothing to stop the new association from permitting its members from schedling a certain number of games against NCAA members.

After all, the NCAA doesn't bar teams from scheduling D2 or D3 opponents.  Few of them do this from a practical perspective, but nothing would stop an Ohio State or Michigan from scheduling a lower-power team from outside its association.

An tournament that features Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina, UCLA, Indiana, Duke, etc. is going to suffer prestige and lack for a television contract when compared to one where the likes of Villanova and St. Louis represent the cream of the crop?   Hardly. 

Plus, I doubt that the CBS money is contractually guarnteed in the event that UK, KU, UNC, ULCA, IU, Duke, etc all leave.  I'm guessing there is a change of conditions clause that would unwind that contract pretty fast.

Plus, the new association could always invite participants from the old NCAA. 

If FBS+FCS leave the NCAA and form a 158 team all-sport association they aren't keeping anyone out.  If anything, they are providing their members a viable alternative to the NCAA, where all teams would be welcome to stay. 

They will simply set up a minimum requirement to have a football team with 85 scholarships, and probably some minimum stadium size requirement.  But that's no different than what the NCAA does or individual conferences do today.

If the DePauls and Marquettes and Xaviers of the world want to participate, all they have to do is start a football program and play in a 30,000 seat stadium.

You really can't discount the legal and political ramifications of such a move.  Hell Georgetown alone has bestowed half of DC with a degree or another....you don't think that network puts up a fight in the halls of congress over something like this?

[mattyv1908]

Correct.  It is a 10  team conference with 7 or 8 schools that have the ability to make the NCAA each year (DePaul and Seton Hall have to prove themselves).  The schools pay coaches as much as any schools in the country and it has a lucrative TV contract with a major sports network that shows virtually ever game on national TV.

Conclusion, it is a major power conference.

This is the correct way to do it.

The incorrect way is to look at everyone roster for next year, assume everyone will suck (i.e., Butler) and conclude it is the next coming of the Horizon league, like this thread did at the top.

When did I conclude this conference was the next coming of the Horizon league?  Oh, right, more hyperbole.

I did say the Big East is more likely to be a two bid league next season than a five bid league next season.  I personally think it gets three teams in.  I hardly suggested everyone will suck, but I see very few NCAAT teams next season.

Hopefully I'm wrong but even though I think the seven basketball only programs did the best possible thing they could I just don't see this working for the better long term.  Look who our expansion teams were.  Butler just got through their perfect storm of success, Creighton is wrapping it up this season.  Only Xavier has legitimate NCAAT experience and success over a significant span of time.

We picked two mid major programs at the tail end of their peak of short term success and a lone quality basketball only school.  Sorry if I'm nold 100% sold on this working out well for the conference.

[Wojo'sMojo]

When did I conclude this conference was the next coming of the Horizon league?  Oh, right, more hyperbole.

I did say the Big East is more likely to be a two bid league next season than a five bid league next season.  I personally think it gets three teams in.  I hardly suggested everyone will suck, but I see very few NCAAT teams next season.

Hopefully I'm wrong but even though I think the seven basketball only programs did the best possible thing they could I just don't see this working for the better long term.  Look who our expansion teams were.  Butler just got through their perfect storm of success, Creighton is wrapping it up this season.  Only Xavier has legitimate NCAAT experience and success over a significant span of time.

We picked two mid major programs at the tail end of their peak of short term success and a lone quality basketball only school.  Sorry if I'm nold 100% sold on this working out well for the conference.

Since 1997 Butler has been to the tourney 11 times and Creighton 9 times since 1999. They have had more than enough current success to think they can sustain being a quality member of the BE. It's not like they caught lightning in a bottle for a couple years. They have proven to be quality programs over the years.

[Tugg Speedman]

When did I conclude this conference was the next coming of the Horizon league?  Oh, right, more hyperbole.

I did say the Big East is more likely to be a two bid league next season than a five bid league next season.  I personally think it gets three teams in.  I hardly suggested everyone will suck, but I see very few NCAAT teams next season.

You accuse me of hyperbole than then say its a 2 bid league.  You can't even name the players on our roster next year, let alone any other team.

Try this

5 bid league ... Nova, X, Prov, MU and GT are looking good for bids next year.

MU can't get one?  See 13-17 (5-13) Nova two years ago.  Many of the same players on this year's 2 seed team were on that team.

So, wait until you can name the rosters before you start with incorrect conference assessments.