Todd Mayo Last 9 Games vs first 20

[MUCam]

The numbers speak for themselves...Mayo should have been playing a lot more all year long.  Period.  If you want to split hairs....I'd think Butler, New Mexico, and San Diego State all were potential wins....and of course if we didn't totally and completely brick it (not to mention names responsible) against Providence we win that game.

Mayo's numbers - so closely parallel Vander's last year - that it is virtually a certainty that if he was given 33 minutes per game from the outset as VAnder averaged last year...it would have resulted in 113 more points over the course of the 29 game season.  Vander played in 34 games last year...scored 502 on the year for 14ppg average....subtracting 5 games for Mayo as we've played 5 less games results in 14x5 = 70 points less than Vander's season total (502-70)  432.  Todd scored 319 for the year through 29 games.  Think those 113 points left on bench or 3.89 per game could have helped this team win a few more games...

Have you heard of the logical fallacy called "denying the antecedent"?

If X, then Y.
Not X
Therefore, not Y.

In other words:

If Mayo plays more minutes in the first 20 games, then Marquette wins at least 3 more games.
Mayo did not play more minutes in the first 20 games.
Therefore, Marquette did not win at least 3 more games.

Logically flawed argument that, as pointed out earlier, that simplifies the world into black and white and does not take into account numerous other variables.

Maybe your conclusion is right. Maybe it is wrong. But your logic is fundamentally and conclusively flawed. Statistical analysis is a great weapon when used in sound argument. However, when coupled with flawed logic, it has the capability of declaring as true, under the guise of numbers, what cannot be determined definitively to be true or false.

If the world spent more time making logically valid conclusions, we'd have less bickering and more understanding that our positions are rarely as airtight as we espouse them to be.

[forgetful]

The numbers speak for themselves...Mayo should have been playing a lot more all year long.  Period.  If you want to split hairs....I'd think Butler, New Mexico, and San Diego State all were potential wins....and of course if we didn't totally and completely brick it (not to mention names responsible) against Providence we win that game.

Mayo's numbers - so closely parallel Vander's last year - that it is virtually a certainty that if he was given 33 minutes per game from the outset as VAnder averaged last year...it would have resulted in 113 more points over the course of the 29 game season.  Vander played in 34 games last year...scored 502 on the year for 14ppg average....subtracting 5 games for Mayo as we've played 5 less games results in 14x5 = 70 points less than Vander's season total (502-70)  432.  Todd scored 319 for the year through 29 games.  Think those 113 points left on bench or 3.89 per game could have helped this team win a few more games...

It's not splitting hairs, it is the fallacy in your argument.  Lets look at those games.

New Mexico, Mayo played 23 minutes he scored 10 points and committed 3 TO's.  You would like him to play 10 more minutes.  We'll give him an additional 5 points and 1.5 TO's.

Now the 10 minutes have to come from somewhere.  (The best for your argument would be to take 7 from JJJ, but you have advocated he needed more minutes so that wouldn't be right, but lets do it anyway...and assume he actually played 10 minutes).  JJJ had 0 points and 0 TOs so we would get a net of +5 points and +1.5 TOs.  The 1.5 TOs account for 2 additional possession, which at the 1.11 PPP New Mexico had would yield a net positive of 3.3 pts.  Insufficient to overcome the 7 pt deficit. 

If you took the time away from Juan Anderson or Jake Thomas the net affect would be substantially worse than the 3.3 pts.  So playing Mayo 10 more minutes would have meant nothing.

Against San Diego State Mayo played 24 minutes and scored 5 points.  Best case scenario lets have him play 36 minutes.  He gets us 2.5 points more in those 12 minutes...who do we take them from.  Again JJJ's 0 pt 0 assist 0 TO effort would be the best choice (same problem as above).  Best scenario net gain of 2.5 points, insufficient to overcome the 8 pt deficit.

Against Butler, Mayo played 26 minutes.  Scored 4 points and had 2 TOs.  The 2 TOs cost us at least 2 points (1 PPP), so his net is +2 for 26 minutes.  Give him an additional 8 and we can bring his net up to around +2.7 points (we gain 0.7 points).  Swap him out for JA and you could gain the 0.7 and avoid OT, but you would remove our best defender, according to advanced stats (JA ~10 points/100 possessions better than Mayo) that switch would cost us 1.7 points, meaning we would have lost in regulation by 1 point.

So in none of the games you selected would playing Mayo have affected the outcome.

As for your points scenario.  Let's also remember he was injured for 1 game and suspended for another so remover 28 more points, you are down to 85 for the season or 2.9 PPG.  But to achieve that you have to remove someone else's production.  You'd end up with a net wash.  Meaning all aspect of your argument are invalid.

[mu03eng]

It's not splitting hairs, it is the fallacy in your argument.  Lets look at those games.

New Mexico, Mayo played 23 minutes he scored 10 points and committed 3 TO's.  You would like him to play 10 more minutes.  We'll give him an additional 5 points and 1.5 TO's.

Now the 10 minutes have to come from somewhere.  (The best for your argument would be to take 7 from JJJ, but you have advocated he needed more minutes so that wouldn't be right, but lets do it anyway...and assume he actually played 10 minutes).  JJJ had 0 points and 0 TOs so we would get a net of +5 points and +1.5 TOs.  The 1.5 TOs account for 2 additional possession, which at the 1.11 PPP New Mexico had would yield a net positive of 3.3 pts.  Insufficient to overcome the 7 pt deficit. 

If you took the time away from Juan Anderson or Jake Thomas the net affect would be substantially worse than the 3.3 pts.  So playing Mayo 10 more minutes would have meant nothing.

Against San Diego State Mayo played 24 minutes and scored 5 points.  Best case scenario lets have him play 36 minutes.  He gets us 2.5 points more in those 12 minutes...who do we take them from.  Again JJJ's 0 pt 0 assist 0 TO effort would be the best choice (same problem as above).  Best scenario net gain of 2.5 points, insufficient to overcome the 8 pt deficit.

Against Butler, Mayo played 26 minutes.  Scored 4 points and had 2 TOs.  The 2 TOs cost us at least 2 points (1 PPP), so his net is +2 for 26 minutes.  Give him an additional 8 and we can bring his net up to around +2.7 points (we gain 0.7 points).  Swap him out for JA and you could gain the 0.7 and avoid OT, but you would remove our best defender, according to advanced stats (JA ~10 points/100 possessions better than Mayo) that switch would cost us 1.7 points, meaning we would have lost in regulation by 1 point.

So in none of the games you selected would playing Mayo have affected the outcome.

As for your points scenario.  Let's also remember he was injured for 1 game and suspended for another so remover 28 more points, you are down to 85 for the season or 2.9 PPG.  But to achieve that you have to remove someone else's production.  You'd end up with a net wash.  Meaning all aspect of your argument are invalid.

OHHH...BURNZZZ

All kidding aside, that is a great analysis

[NersEllenson]

It's not splitting hairs, it is the fallacy in your argument.  Lets look at those games.

New Mexico, Mayo played 23 minutes he scored 10 points and committed 3 TO's.  You would like him to play 10 more minutes.  We'll give him an additional 5 points and 1.5 TO's.

Now the 10 minutes have to come from somewhere.  (The best for your argument would be to take 7 from JJJ, but you have advocated he needed more minutes so that wouldn't be right, but lets do it anyway...and assume he actually played 10 minutes).  JJJ had 0 points and 0 TOs so we would get a net of +5 points and +1.5 TOs.  The 1.5 TOs account for 2 additional possession, which at the 1.11 PPP New Mexico had would yield a net positive of 3.3 pts.  Insufficient to overcome the 7 pt deficit. 

If you took the time away from Juan Anderson or Jake Thomas the net affect would be substantially worse than the 3.3 pts.  So playing Mayo 10 more minutes would have meant nothing.

Against San Diego State Mayo played 24 minutes and scored 5 points.  Best case scenario lets have him play 36 minutes.  He gets us 2.5 points more in those 12 minutes...who do we take them from.  Again JJJ's 0 pt 0 assist 0 TO effort would be the best choice (same problem as above).  Best scenario net gain of 2.5 points, insufficient to overcome the 8 pt deficit.

Against Butler, Mayo played 26 minutes.  Scored 4 points and had 2 TOs.  The 2 TOs cost us at least 2 points (1 PPP), so his net is +2 for 26 minutes.  Give him an additional 8 and we can bring his net up to around +2.7 points (we gain 0.7 points).  Swap him out for JA and you could gain the 0.7 and avoid OT, but you would remove our best defender, according to advanced stats (JA ~10 points/100 possessions better than Mayo) that switch would cost us 1.7 points, meaning we would have lost in regulation by 1 point.

So in none of the games you selected would playing Mayo have affected the outcome.

As for your points scenario.  Let's also remember he was injured for 1 game and suspended for another so remover 28 more points, you are down to 85 for the season or 2.9 PPG.  But to achieve that you have to remove someone else's production.  You'd end up with a net wash.  Meaning all aspect of your argument are invalid.

Nice analysis.  Some merit, some flaws.  Todd was getting choppy playing time early in the year...unlike the last 9 games where Buzz has ridden him for long stretches...10+ minute segments...instead of 4 to 6 segments of 4 to 5 minutes each.  Mayo is a guy like MANY players that need good run to get into the flow/rhythm.  Todd started off horrible against Providence...historically Buzz would have yanked him..tried him again for 4 minutes and if he didn't do well in those 4, bench city, then try him again...Buzz has said as much.

But, if you don't think 89 additional points on this team would have helped it win 3 more games....yes...we can disagree all day long.  Shifting 10 minutes a game from Juan to Todd alone results in 2.3 more points per 10 minutes played taking into consideration Juan's point per minute average and Todd's points per minute based on season averages.  I can't even believe we are debating Juan Anderson's value on the floor versus Todd Mayo - freaking ludicrous.

Then again, I know you also have posted arguing the merits of our leading minute getter, so that tells me all I need to know regarding your basketball mind.  Along with your belief that in "none of the games (I selected) playing Mayo would have affected the outcome."

[MU82]

Nice analysis.  Some merit, some flaws.  Todd was getting choppy playing time early in the year...unlike the last 9 games where Buzz has ridden him for long stretches...10+ minute segments...instead of 4 to 6 segments of 4 to 5 minutes each.  Mayo is a guy like MANY players that need good run to get into the flow/rhythm.  Todd started off horrible against Providence...historically Buzz would have yanked him..tried him again for 4 minutes and if he didn't do well in those 4, bench city, then try him again...Buzz has said as much.

But, if you don't think 89 additional points on this team would have helped it win 3 more games....yes...we can disagree all day long.  Shifting 10 minutes a game from Juan to Todd alone results in 2.3 more points per 10 minutes played taking into consideration Juan's point per minute average and Todd's points per minute based on season averages.  I can't even believe we are debating Juan Anderson's value on the floor versus Todd Mayo - freaking ludicrous.

Then again, I know you also have posted arguing the merits of our leading minute getter, so that tells me all I need to know regarding your basketball mind.  Along with your belief that in "none of the games (I selected) playing Mayo would have affected the outcome."

I guess I go back to an earlier commenter's unshakable statement that Mayo's increased playing time and the bump to the offense didn't stop us from losing our last three games, so why should one assume that had he played more earlier we would have won three more games. Hell, maybe we actually would have lost more for whatever reason.

Ners, you are stating an opinion. And, as you often do, you are stating it as fact: "If we had Starks, we'd be a Final Four LOCK!" You are entitled to your opinion, as we all are, but you are not entitled to assume your opinion is fact.

The only fact is this: We don't know if Mayo playing more earlier would have translated to more wins, more losses or the exact same record.

Some of us are of the opinion that we would have won more had he played more, however.

[77ncaachamps]

No logic needed when you know Todd is on the floor, there's a high probability that he's going to score more points in that one game than DWil in three games combined.

But the defense...

[NersEllenson]

I guess I go back to an earlier commenter's unshakable statement that Mayo's increased playing time and the bump to the offense didn't stop us from losing our last three games, so why should one assume that had he played more earlier we would have won three more games. Hell, maybe we actually would have lost more for whatever reason.

Ners, you are stating an opinion. And, as you often do, you are stating it as fact: "If we had Starks, we'd be a Final Four LOCK!" You are entitled to your opinion, as we all are, but you are not entitled to assume your opinion is fact.

The only fact is this: We don't know if Mayo playing more earlier would have translated to more wins, more losses or the exact same record.

Some of us are of the opinion that we would have won more had he played more, however.

I get your point....about assuming my opinion as fact...so will acquiesce on that.  Yet to deny 89 additional points from the guard spot this season would not have resulted in a few more wins is really hard to fathom...

And as for last 3 games...obviously with Mayo fouled out that killed us in St. John's..doubt the final play would have looked so bad..Buzz probably wouldn't have even called the timeout.  Providence...what can you say...we gave that game away...Villanova at home...well OT is a pipe dream if Mayo doesn't go en fuego.  But I know some of my strongest adversaries certainly won't place blame at the foot of say..our starting backcourt in Nova game  - that gave us 7 points in 66 minutes of action on 3 of 14 shooting...meanwhile Juan Anderson in Nova game gets 17 minutes and puts up a big fat 0 points.  Todd played 27....Jake 34...why??  Plus our defensive prowess backcourt gave up a career game to Darren Hilliard - 26 points - and kid averages 14.  Nova at Nova in a nutshell is a perfect example of how Buzz got it so wrong this year...hell DAwson scored 4 points in 8 minutes...while Derrick scored 2 in 32 minutes...

Nonetheless...I know you get it in general 82..

[forgetful]

Nice analysis.  Some merit, some flaws.  Todd was getting choppy playing time early in the year...unlike the last 9 games where Buzz has ridden him for long stretches...10+ minute segments...instead of 4 to 6 segments of 4 to 5 minutes each.  Mayo is a guy like MANY players that need good run to get into the flow/rhythm.  Todd started off horrible against Providence...historically Buzz would have yanked him..tried him again for 4 minutes and if he didn't do well in those 4, bench city, then try him again...Buzz has said as much.

But, if you don't think 89 additional points on this team would have helped it win 3 more games....yes...we can disagree all day long.  Shifting 10 minutes a game from Juan to Todd alone results in 2.3 more points per 10 minutes played taking into consideration Juan's point per minute average and Todd's points per minute based on season averages.  I can't even believe we are debating Juan Anderson's value on the floor versus Todd Mayo - freaking ludicrous.

Then again, I know you also have posted arguing the merits of our leading minute getter, so that tells me all I need to know regarding your basketball mind.  Along with your belief that in "none of the games (I selected) playing Mayo would have affected the outcome."

Still not quite right.  You don't get 89 points for free, we can't play 6-5.  If Mayo comes in someone else has to step out, which means the net gain for Todd playing more is probably close to 0.  Also shifting 10 minutes a game from Juan to Todd does not yield 2.3 more points per 10 minutes.  You are forgetting defense.  Juan is 10 points/100 possessions better on D than Mayo (I'm not a big fan of advanced stats, but this is the quickest way to make the point).  So for a 70 possession game that is 7 points or 1.8 points per 10 minutes.  The net at best is 0.5 points by swapping 10 minutes from Juan to Mayo.  That wouldn't have won us any additional games.

Let's not forget that Juan is a low offensive usage player, meaning when he is on the floor shots are going to other players (Gardner/Jake) who are two of our best offensive options.  Those shots (and points) will be gone so that Mayo can get his...in the end it very well may be a net loss.

I love Mayo, think he may very well be great for us in the tournament (miracle run?) and next year.  But playing him 10 more minutes a game across the entire season wasn't going to affect anything.  Especially since some of the less time early in the year was because of recovery from a knee (in the offseason), ankle (ASU) injuries and broken nose.

Your looking at these things in a vacuum and I really think your hatred for Derrick is blinding your ability to analyze this season.

[NersEllenson]

Still not quite right.  You don't get 89 points for free, we can't play 6-5.  If Mayo comes in someone else has to step out, which means the net gain for Todd playing more is probably close to 0.  Also shifting 10 minutes a game from Juan to Todd does not yield 2.3 more points per 10 minutes.  You are forgetting defense.  Juan is 10 points/100 possessions better on D than Mayo (I'm not a big fan of advanced stats, but this is the quickest way to make the point).  So for a 70 possession game that is 7 points or 1.8 points per 10 minutes.  The net at best is 0.5 points by swapping 10 minutes from Juan to Mayo.  That wouldn't have won us any additional games.

Let's not forget that Juan is a low offensive usage player, meaning when he is on the floor shots are going to other players (Gardner/Jake) who are two of our best offensive options.  Those shots (and points) will be gone so that Mayo can get his...in the end it very well may be a net loss.

I love Mayo, think he may very well be great for us in the tournament (miracle run?) and next year.  But playing him 10 more minutes a game across the entire season wasn't going to affect anything.  Especially since some of the less time early in the year was because of recovery from a knee (in the offseason), ankle (ASU) injuries and broken nose.

Your looking at these things in a vacuum and I really think your hatred for Derrick is blinding your ability to analyze this season.

Usually there is a reason a guy is low usage...similar to Derrick as well - they are severely challenged offensively...and since you can't play "help" offense, whereas you can play help defense - a player with severely limited offensive abilities hurts a team more than one who is slightly deficient defensively.  I get that someone has to shoot the shots, so if you have 5 high usage guys on the floor, their ultimate usage goes down...but..I would surmise their efficiency goes up significantly as the defense now has 5 legitimate scoring threats to defend on the floor...as opposed to 3, which is usually the case with Juan and Derrick on the floor together.  And yes, I do believe a greater efficiency from all players would improve our win/loss record.  There is a reason almost ALL coaches play their best players the most minutes...

Agree to disagree that those 10 more minutes per game for Mayo wouldn't have made a difference in a few games this year.

[MUCam]

I get your point....about assuming my opinion as fact...so will acquiesce on that.  Yet to deny 89 additional points from the guard spot this season would not have resulted in a few more wins is really hard to fathom...

Going to just ignore the question related to whether you understand logic and logical fallacies? Going to just keep beating the drum of your invalid conclusions?

Just curious.

Here's the deal: Playing Mayo more earlier in the season MAY have won us more games. In fact, there are strong points to be made that support that contention. There are also valid points to be made against that contention.

However, to say that it WOULD have won us more games, definitively, is just wrong. That is where you go wrong with the vast majority of your conclusions. To make a statement as fact that Mayo WOULD have given us 89 more points if played more and that Marquette WOULD have won 3+ more games is invalid. It completely simplifies things to black and white and throws out so many other variables that absolutely merit discussion and require further inquiry.

But, hey....keep on keepin' on.

[brandx]

Still not quite right.  You don't get 89 points for free, we can't play 6-5.  If Mayo comes in someone else has to step out, which means the net gain for Todd playing more is probably close to 0.  Also shifting 10 minutes a game from Juan to Todd does not yield 2.3 more points per 10 minutes.  You are forgetting defense.  Juan is 10 points/100 possessions better on D than Mayo (I'm not a big fan of advanced stats, but this is the quickest way to make the point).  So for a 70 possession game that is 7 points or 1.8 points per 10 minutes.  The net at best is 0.5 points by swapping 10 minutes from Juan to Mayo.  That wouldn't have won us any additional games.

Let's not forget that Juan is a low offensive usage player, meaning when he is on the floor shots are going to other players (Gardner/Jake) who are two of our best offensive options.  Those shots (and points) will be gone so that Mayo can get his...in the end it very well may be a net loss.

I love Mayo, think he may very well be great for us in the tournament (miracle run?) and next year.  But playing him 10 more minutes a game across the entire season wasn't going to affect anything.  Especially since some of the less time early in the year was because of recovery from a knee (in the offseason), ankle (ASU) injuries and broken nose.

Your looking at these things in a vacuum and I really think your hatred for Derrick is blinding your ability to analyze this season.

You had a good argument until you said that playing the better player "wasn't going to affect anything".

Sometimes we just forget common sense.

[jesmu84]

Going to just ignore the question related to whether you understand logic and logical fallacies? Going to just keep beating the drum of your invalid conclusions?

Just curious.

Here's the deal: Playing Mayo more earlier in the season MAY have won us more games. In fact, there are strong points to be made that support that contention. There are also valid points to be made against that contention.

However, to say that it WOULD have won us more games, definitively, is just wrong. That is where you go wrong with the vast majority of your conclusions. To make a statement as fact that Mayo WOULD have given us 89 more points if played more and that Marquette WOULD have won 3+ more games is invalid. It completely simplifies things to black and white and throws out so many other variables that absolutely merit discussion and require further inquiry.

But, hey....keep on keepin' on.

This. Thanks Cam

[forgetful]

You had a good argument until you said that playing the better player "wasn't going to affect anything".

Sometimes we just forget common sense.

You play the better player, but that doesn't mean you pick your best 5 and play them 40 minutes.  If Mayo wasn't playing at all there would be a big problem, but he has been getting significant minutes.  At that point there is no guarantee that additional playing time would affect anything.

I absolutely agree that the best players at each position (on both sides of the ball) should get the most playing time.

If it came off as me saying that we shouldn't play the best player, I didn't mean that.

[NersEllenson]

You play the better player, but that doesn't mean you pick your best 5 and play them 40 minutes.  If Mayo wasn't playing at all there would be a big problem, but he has been getting significant minutes.  At that point there is no guarantee that additional playing time would affect anything.

I absolutely agree that the best players at each position (on both sides of the ball) should get the most playing time.

If it came off as me saying that we shouldn't play the best player, I didn't mean that.

Mayo has been getting significant minutes the last 9 games...and his numbers look quite a bit better than they did the first 20 games....but I know, I know, we need to frame our arguments based on Phil 001 and Logic/logical fallacies...even though Mayo's last 9 games stats are better than Vander's were for all of last year, and in 4 less minutes per game...it is a logical fallacy to conclude that the previous 20 would have resulted in the same/similar.   Different illogical arguments have been offered up...such as coming off, off season knee surgery - yet he went for 20 in the first game of the year - or after the ASU game that his sprained ankle could still be bothering him - that he got some decent minute games the first 20 but didn't average 15ppg in those...yet as I wrote...Buzz for the first time in Todd's career has given him the ability to play through mistakes and slow starts these last 9 games..and it absolutely has made a difference.

Did you want to chime in on the notion that playing 5 high usage guys - which are usually your best players - may result in a usage drop, but overall efficiency would improve as you now have 5 guys on the floor who need to be defended, and thereby it creates better opportunities for all...versus the 3 on 5 model we typically face when Juan and Derrick play together..

[NersEllenson]

Going to just ignore the question related to whether you understand logic and logical fallacies? Going to just keep beating the drum of your invalid conclusions?

Just curious.

Here's the deal: Playing Mayo more earlier in the season MAY have won us more games. In fact, there are strong points to be made that support that contention. There are also valid points to be made against that contention.

However, to say that it WOULD have won us more games, definitively, is just wrong.

First, I said I'd ARGUE we'd have won 3+ more games...I didn't make a definitive statement saying we WOULD have won 3+ more games?  Do you not understand basic grammar/usage??

And as for answering your other question...aren't you the guy who submitted that Todd's offseason knee injury could have meant he wasn't ready/able to produce at a similar level as to what he has these last 9 games?  And I submitted that in the first game of the season he went for 20 points...and in Game 4 for 16...Game 3 played 29 minutes against Ohio State and scored 11 ...can't really think Buzz would jeopordize his health and play him if his knee wasn't ready, right?  Given he played 29 against OSU, is it not logically correct to assume his body was capable of playing 29 at that time?

But hey...carry on...straw man.  Note again...difference between saying - I'd ARGUE and We WOULD have won 3+ more games...and thus the debate has flowed from there...you and Forgetful dissent...fair enough...but please stop twisting words, and not responding to rebuttals of your flawed positions referenced above...and then call me out for doing the same in not responding to your arguments...

[rocky_warrior]

Last 9 games:  Marquette 5-4, 5 home games (3-2), 4 away games (2-2)

Previous 9 games:  Marquette 4-5, 4 home games (3-1), 5 away games (1-4)

More Todd, less Todd, we've gotten worse at home and better on the road? Or we're actually pretty consistent regardless of his numbers?

I'm rooting hard for Todd to be the guy next year, but please stop make assumptions about one guys minutes as to what could have or would have happened.  This year the TEAM did not do well, and Buzz couldn't get them to perform well as a TEAM.  I honestly don't think that if Todd had played every minute of every game that the results would have been much different.

[NersEllenson]

Last 9 games:  Marquette 5-4, 5 home games (3-2), 4 away games (2-2)

Previous 9 games:  Marquette 4-5, 4 home games (3-1), 5 away games (1-4)

More Todd, less Todd, we've gotten worse at home and better on the road? Or we're actually pretty consistent regardless of his numbers?

I'm rooting hard for Todd to be the guy next year, but please stop make assumptions about one guys minutes as to what could have or would have happened.  This year the TEAM did not do well, and Buzz couldn't get them to perform well as a TEAM.  I honestly don't think that if Todd had played every minute of every game that the results would have been much different.

Fair enough...just feel we left a lot of sorely needed GUARD points on the bench by not maxing Todd's minutes all year - especially given that we maxed the minutes of Derrick - who simply is ZERO offensive threat....needed all the help we could get on the perimeter and Mayo is clearly our most talented guard...opportunity cost applies to not having him on the floor..

But I agree that at the end of the day, Mayo's minute allocation was only runner up to another minute allocation decision as to what derailed this team thought to be a Big East title winner/contender at pre-season.

[forgetful]

deleted as there is no point to continue this debate further.

[PGsHeroes32]

Ners, your opinion may be right. But, it also might not be. As pointed out, there's lots of assumptions made in your thoughts. MUCam and Forgetful bring up a lot of good points. I'd actually say you could extend this conversation to Burton as well - he's playing more minutes now because he's improved in Buzz's eyes.

No they don't. It's the same garbage spewed here everytime to try and defend this awful 17-14 record.

people here for some reason would rather just chalk things up to a bad season then see that very clearly we had opportunities available. We are a better basketball team with Todd Mayo on the floor then not on the floor.

That was the case in November, it is the case now. We are literally the only team in the country that doesn't start their two best players or let them play 30 minutes a game.

And you see where it got us. Needing a miracle to make the tourney for the fist time in 9 years.

[PGsHeroes32]

It's not splitting hairs, it is the fallacy in your argument.  Lets look at those games.

New Mexico, Mayo played 23 minutes he scored 10 points and committed 3 TO's.  You would like him to play 10 more minutes.  We'll give him an additional 5 points and 1.5 TO's.

Now the 10 minutes have to come from somewhere.  (The best for your argument would be to take 7 from JJJ, but you have advocated he needed more minutes so that wouldn't be right, but lets do it anyway...and assume he actually played 10 minutes).  JJJ had 0 points and 0 TOs so we would get a net of +5 points and +1.5 TOs.  The 1.5 TOs account for 2 additional possession, which at the 1.11 PPP New Mexico had would yield a net positive of 3.3 pts.  Insufficient to overcome the 7 pt deficit. 

If you took the time away from Juan Anderson or Jake Thomas the net affect would be substantially worse than the 3.3 pts.  So playing Mayo 10 more minutes would have meant nothing.

Against San Diego State Mayo played 24 minutes and scored 5 points.  Best case scenario lets have him play 36 minutes.  He gets us 2.5 points more in those 12 minutes...who do we take them from.  Again JJJ's 0 pt 0 assist 0 TO effort would be the best choice (same problem as above).  Best scenario net gain of 2.5 points, insufficient to overcome the 8 pt deficit.

Against Butler, Mayo played 26 minutes.  Scored 4 points and had 2 TOs.  The 2 TOs cost us at least 2 points (1 PPP), so his net is +2 for 26 minutes.  Give him an additional 8 and we can bring his net up to around +2.7 points (we gain 0.7 points).  Swap him out for JA and you could gain the 0.7 and avoid OT, but you would remove our best defender, according to advanced stats (JA ~10 points/100 possessions better than Mayo) that switch would cost us 1.7 points, meaning we would have lost in regulation by 1 point.

So in none of the games you selected would playing Mayo have affected the outcome.

As for your points scenario.  Let's also remember he was injured for 1 game and suspended for another so remover 28 more points, you are down to 85 for the season or 2.9 PPG.  But to achieve that you have to remove someone else's production.  You'd end up with a net wash.  Meaning all aspect of your argument are invalid.

You cannot actually believe the garbage you right do you? I mean seriously why are you always devil advocate supporting the LOSS? It's disturbing.

Todd is better in spurts. If he has more minutes he is on the court for longer periods of time and actually gets into his rhythm as he has done the last 9 games. Do you even watch?

Or New Mexico. The game where we started down like 12-5 or maybe worse. Todd comes in and the offense takes off. He finds Jake for two great looks. Jake now gets looks because defenses can't key in on him with Todd and Davante in for Juan and Chris.

If you can't see this I really don't know what to tell you. The record speaks for itself. The last 9 speak for themselves. The numbers speak for themselves whether they are normal stats from Ners(todd being similar to vander) or Matty's advanced stats.

Buzz was wrong this year. It was his first screw up in 6 years, but he missed the boat and we suffered.

[jesmu84]

No they don't. It's the same garbage spewed here everytime to try and defend this awful 17-14 record.

people here for some reason would rather just chalk things up to a bad season then see that very clearly we had opportunities available. We are a better basketball team with Todd Mayo on the floor then not on the floor.

That was the case in November, it is the case now. We are literally the only team in the country that doesn't start their two best players or let them play 30 minutes a game.

And you see where it got us. Needing a miracle to make the tourney for the fist time in 9 years.

It's not garbage. I'm not defending our record, or play, or coaching or whatever. I am displeased with this season. I wish Buzz would have made changes long ago.

Having said all that... LOGICALLY, you cannot make some of the claims stated here. They don't hold up. That's all I was trying to point out.

PS. Matty's advanced stats support Derrick over Dawson 

[MUCam]

No they don't. It's the same garbage spewed here everytime to try and defend this awful 17-14 record.

I challenge you to find a post in the last two months where I have defended this record. Let me make the task easy for you; you won't.

This is the problem with message boards. People such as yourself throw out outrageous and increasingly volatile claims with reckless abandon. Rather than employ sound reasoning and logic to make points, you appear to be of this most unfortunate belief that if you yell louder and make your speech more inflammatory, your point will be stronger. That tactic fails and incriminates your inability to engage in rational discussion.

Before you start accusing people of spewing garbage, you may want to inspect your glass house to make sure it can withstand the rocks.

[NavinRJohnson]

The record speaks for itself. The last 9 speak for themselves.

Yes they do, as Rocky points out above, MU is the same medeocre team with Mayo playing more minutes as they were when he wasn't.

[NersEllenson]

It's not garbage. I'm not defending our record, or play, or coaching or whatever. I am displeased with this season. I wish Buzz would have made changes long ago.

Having said all that... LOGICALLY, you cannot make some of the claims stated here. They don't hold up. That's all I was trying to point out.

PS. Matty's advanced stats support Derrick over Dawson 

So we can use Matty's advanced stats to support Dawson over Derrick, but we can't use Todd's stats the last 9 games as an argument for more minutes/that he should have gotten more minutes all year long?  Okay.

And as for Dawson/Derrick - Dawson has 11 games where he played more than 10 minutes - which are all Pomroy will use to define as statistically relevant..as he knows what a player does in less than 10 minutes of PT isn't a true/good enough sample size to predict performance.  And in the games Dawson has played more than 11...they average out to approximately 12 minutes per game...hardly over the threshold for statistical relevance.  As I've said all year long...just wanted to see how Dawson would perform if given 25-30 minutes per game over a 4 game stretch to get a fair diagnostic.  Buzz had all the diagnostics he needed on Derrick...and let's be real....they aren't very good...and nor is the team's record.

And for those who want to point to last 9 games record not being much better...well...we absolutely GAVE away Providence game thanks to some really poor play/decision making by guards not named Dawson and Mayo.  Win that and we are 6-3 in last nine, which looks a lot better than the 4-5 prior to Mayo's minutes getting upped.  Throw St. John's on top of it 7-2...which was a real shot at a win if we had a guy who could hit a wide open 10' baseline shot.

[NavinRJohnson]

And for those who want to point to last 9 games record not being much better...well...we absolutely GAVE away Providence game thanks to some really poor play/decision making by guards not named Dawson and Mayo.  

LOL! You are so ridiculous. You're dug in on this thing, and that has caused some blinders where Mayo is concerned, but reading the comment above, its as if Mayo's two turnovers in the last minute and a half, or TWICE fouling a on a made three pointer didn't happen. For as much good as he did, how's that game end up if you take away just one of this poor plays/decisions, by a guard most definitely named Mayo.

I know, I know, in your odd little basketball world, this will somehow translate to me  defending Derrick Wilson, because that is always what you have to resort to when your quest for easy answers can't be supported.