Davante Gardner Big East advanced stats.

[mattyv1908]

I don't think this board realizes how good of a season our big man is having.  Here's a few key things that stood out at me while perusing the Big East conference leaders this morning.

1.  For your usual stats Gardner is 10th in made FGs, 5th in made 2pt FGs, 5th in 2pt FG%, 5th in FTs, 4th in FT attempts, 10th in FT%, 5th in Off RB, and 9th in points.

2.  For your advanced stats (which I heavily favor) here's where he really shines.

Gardner is 2nd in the league in player efficiency rating at 26.7 trailing only McDermott at 31.6.

Gardner is 5th in true shooting% at .602.

Gardner is 8th in Off Reb% grabbing 10.1% of all available offensive rebounds when he's on the court and 10th in Tot Reb% grabbing 13% of all available rebounds when he's on the court.

Gardner is 9th in points produced, (a stat dominated by guards) due to his ability as an effective passer.

Gardner has the HIGHEST ORtg of anyone in conference at 128.6 pts/100 possessions he's on the court.  McDermott is 2nd at 125.9.

Gardner is 4th in offensive win shares at 3.4 and 4th in total win shares at 4.5 trailing only McDermott, Cotton and Smith-Rivera in both categories.

Gardner is 2nd in win shares per 40 minutes with .227/game trailing only McDermott at .260.


The kid is having a huge season and without him I don't think Marquette is even a .500 ball club.

[NersEllenson]

Nice work Matty....Yet we still don't max his minutes consistently....he can play 30-32' per game without a point of diminishing returns..

[Sunbelt15]

I don't think this board realizes how good of a season our big man is having.  Here's a few key things that stood out at me while perusing the Big East conference leaders this morning.

1.  For your usual stats Gardner is 10th in made FGs, 5th in made 2pt FGs, 5th in 2pt FG%, 5th in FTs, 4th in FT attempts, 10th in FT%, 5th in Off RB, and 9th in points.

2.  For your advanced stats (which I heavily favor) here's where he really shines.

Gardner is 2nd in the league in player efficiency rating at 26.7 trailing only McDermott at 31.6.

Gardner is 5th in true shooting% at .602.

Gardner is 8th in Off Reb% grabbing 10.1% of all available offensive rebounds when he's on the court and 10th in Tot Reb% grabbing 13% of all available rebounds when he's on the court.

Gardner is 9th in points produced, (a stat dominated by guards) due to his ability as an effective passer.

Gardner has the HIGHEST ORtg of anyone in conference at 128.6 pts/100 possessions he's on the court.  McDermott is 2nd at 125.9.

Gardner is 4th in offensive win shares at 3.4 and 4th in total win shares at 4.5 trailing only McDermott, Cotton and Smith-Rivera in both categories.

Gardner is 2nd in win shares per 40 minutes with .227/game trailing only McDermott at .260.


The kid is having a huge season and without him I don't think Marquette is even a .500 ball club.

Now, can someone tell me why he doesn't start and get 32-35 mins. per game?

[jesmu84]

Nice work Matty....Yet we still don't max his minutes consistently....he can play 30-32' per game without a point of diminishing returns..

Source?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

He doesn't start because Otule has a higher tip winning percentage than any other player in the BEast...and starting him at the 4 has proven to be terrible.

I would like to max his minutes out. Buzz likes him being a little more fresh. In the end we are talking about a difference of 3-5 minutes

[esotericmindguy]

Source?

Watch the Providence game, he was fine playing over 30 minutes. The same guys said he couldn't play over 20 minutes last year, yet he's having his best year playing 26. You can try to defend Buzz all you want, but not playing Mayo and Gardner 30 minutes a game is a joke. Below are the games, past 2 seasons, where Gardner played 28 minutes or more and is offensive efficiency. Is that enough data for you?

Date                                                 MIN    ORat
Mon Nov 25 Arizona St. L, 79-77       33    144
Fri Nov 29    GW            W, 76-60       35    131
Sat Dec 21    New Mexico L, 75-68       29    94
Sat Jan 4    DePaul    W, 66-56    •    35    150
Thu Jan 9    Xavier    L, 86-79    •    37    120    
Sat Jan 11    Seton Hall    W, 67-66    •    34    82
Sat Jan 18    Butler    L, 69-57    •    42    112
Mon Jan 20 G"town   W, 80-72    •    40    138
Sat Jan 25  Villanova    L, 94-85    •    39    144
Tue Mar 4    Providence    L, 81-80       31    112
Tue Jan 1    UConn       W, 82-76       28    168
Sat Jan 12    Pittsburgh    W, 74-67       29    146
Sat Feb 16    Pittsburgh    W, 79-69       30    126
Mon Feb 25 Syracuse    W, 74-71       33    184
Sat Mar 30    Syracuse    L, 55-39       30   133

[esotericmindguy]

In the end we are talking about a difference of 3-5 minutes

That has been the difference between wins and losses in about 10 games this season.

[NavinRJohnson]

Watch the Providence game, he was fine playing over 30 minutes. The same guys said he couldn't play over 20 minutes last year, yet he's having his best year playing 26. You can try to defend Buzz all you want, but not playing Mayo and Gardner 30 minutes a game is a joke. Below are the games, past 2 season, where Gardner played 28 minutes or more and is offensive officiency. Is that enough data for you?

Date                                                 MIN    ORat
Mon Nov 25 Arizona St. L, 79-77       33    144
Fri Nov 29    GW            W, 76-60       35    131
Sat Dec 21    New Mexico L, 75-68       29    94
Sat Jan 4    DePaul    W, 66-56    •    35    150
Thu Jan 9    Xavier    L, 86-79    •    37    120    
Sat Jan 11    Seton Hall    W, 67-66    •    34    82
Sat Jan 18    Butler    L, 69-57    •    42    112
Mon Jan 20 G"town   W, 80-72    •    40    138
Sat Jan 25  Villanova    L, 94-85    •    39    144
Tue Mar 4    Providence    L, 81-80       31    112
Tue Jan 1    UConn       W, 82-76       28    168
Sat Jan 12    Pittsburgh    W, 74-67       29    146
Sat Feb 16    Pittsburgh    W, 79-69       30    126
Mon Feb 25 Syracuse    W, 74-71       33    184
Sat Mar 30    Syracuse    L, 55-39       30   133

May or may no mean anything, in fact none of the above may really mean anything, but the bolded area kind of leapt off the page at me. Could he maintain his efficiency if playing that many minutes over the course of an entire season?

[NavinRJohnson]

That has been the difference between wins and losses in about 10 games this season.

Evidence?

[esotericmindguy]

May or may no mean anything, in fact none of the above may really mean anything, but the bolded area kind of leapt off the page at me. Could he maintain his efficiency if playing that many minutes over the course of an entire season?

Funny you pick that 3 game stretch and not this one:

Sat Jan 18    Butler    L, 69-57    •    42    112
Mon Jan 20 G"town   W, 80-72    •    40    138
Sat Jan 25  Villanova    L, 94-85    •    39    144

Playing 40 minutes a game and his efficiency improves. May not mean anything? It's not a small sample size. Good Grief.

[esotericmindguy]

Evidence?

My point is, 3-5 minutes have been the diffence in many of Marquette's losses. Evidence provided above. Using reason along with those stats, I think it's safe to say Marquette would have been more successful.

He's also highly efficient at drawing fouls and offensive rebounding. For a player like this to only go 26 minutes is absurd. Again, plenty on this board said he couldn't go over 20 last year.

[NersEllenson]

Watch the Providence game, he was fine playing over 30 minutes. The same guys said he couldn't play over 20 minutes last year, yet he's having his best year playing 26. You can try to defend Buzz all you want, but not playing Mayo and Gardner 30 minutes a game is a joke. Below are the games, past 2 seasons, where Gardner played 28 minutes or more and is offensive efficiency. Is that enough data for you?

Date                                                 MIN    ORat
Mon Nov 25 Arizona St. L, 79-77       33    144
Fri Nov 29    GW            W, 76-60       35    131
Sat Dec 21    New Mexico L, 75-68       29    94
Sat Jan 4    DePaul    W, 66-56    •    35    150
Thu Jan 9    Xavier    L, 86-79    •    37    120    
Sat Jan 11    Seton Hall    W, 67-66    •    34    82
Sat Jan 18    Butler    L, 69-57    •    42    112
Mon Jan 20 G"town   W, 80-72    •    40    138
Sat Jan 25  Villanova    L, 94-85    •    39    144
Tue Mar 4    Providence    L, 81-80       31    112
Tue Jan 1    UConn       W, 82-76       28    168
Sat Jan 12    Pittsburgh    W, 74-67       29    146
Sat Feb 16    Pittsburgh    W, 79-69       30    126
Mon Feb 25 Syracuse    W, 74-71       33    184
Sat Mar 30    Syracuse    L, 55-39       30   133

Nice work esoteric....plenty large enough sample size....it's as though some want to insist there haven't been any miscalculations by Buzz in allocation of playing time.  I too recall the same "some" posters here saying Gardner couldn't go more than 20 minutes last year or he'd play worse due to stamina.  Mayo's playing time has also been disputed as far as that if he'd play more his efficiency would take a hit - just the opposite is true.  And then of course Dawson.

Buzz missed the boat big time this year not maxing Mayo and Gardner's minutes from the start...combined with maxing the minutes (more than any other player on the team), of the least efficient player we have.

Gardner far and away the focal point of the opposition's scouting report..he's a nightmare for the opposition to deal with...having him on the floor benefits the other 4 guys on court.  And his offensive excellence, far outweighs his limitations defensively..

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Trust me, I want me some more Davante Gardner. But looking at minutes alone doesn't work. Pace of the game matters. If Davante is playing a slow team where he gets to walk up and down the court, he could play all 40 minutes! But he could end up in a game where possession is going back and forth and he has to sprint up and down. Not only that, but it matters how Davante is feeling that day. Maybe he didn't sleep well. Maybe he ate a heavy meal. Maybe he's stressing about a test.

Now these things affect all players. My point is, Buzz has all the data. I guarantee you that he has seen every piece of data under the sun about his team and of all of his team's opponents. Buzz knows all the things we know...but he also knows a million more things than we do. We don't have all the data. Buzz does. I trust Buzz to make the decisions that are best for our team.

Not saying that Buzz is infallible. I love debating his decisions. But people here act as if they know everything there is to know when in reality we know less than 7% of what Buzz knows.

[NersEllenson]

May or may no mean anything, in fact none of the above may really mean anything, but the bolded area kind of leapt off the page at me. Could he maintain his efficiency if playing that many minutes over the course of an entire season?

Do you just argue to argue?  I mean its absurd.  Same guy who goes to bat for Derrick, tries to diminish Davante.  Unreal.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Do you just argue to argue?  I mean its absurd.  Same guy who goes to bat for Derrick, tries to diminish Davante.  Unreal.

He asked a question. He didn't diminish Davante. Questions do not equal dissent.

[NersEllenson]

Trust me, I want me some more Davante Gardner. But looking at minutes alone doesn't work. Pace of the game matters. If Davante is playing a slow team where he gets to walk up and down the court, he could play all 40 minutes! But he could end up in a game where possession is going back and forth and he has to sprint up and down. Not only that, but it matters how Davante is feeling that day. Maybe he didn't sleep well. Maybe he ate a heavy meal. Maybe he's stressing about a test.

Now these things affect all players. My point is, Buzz has all the data. I guarantee you that he has seen every piece of data under the sun about his team and of all of his team's opponents. Buzz knows all the things we know...but he also knows a million more things than we do. We don't have all the data. Buzz does. I trust Buzz to make the decisions that are best for our team.

Come on TAMU...I mean at what point do you just not concede this hasn't been Buzz's best year?  In my opinion, he's totally and completely ignored the most obvious of data - Mayo and Gardner are two best players on team - and Derrick is severely limited - yet he still can't concede more minutes to Dawson, and just play Davante a consistent 32'.  He's at least come around on Mayo FINALLY..and the results are obvious.

He's given more minutes to Derrick than any other player on the team....when all data and stats show he's extremely limited.  Buzz has given Dawson ONE game of 30 minutes at GTown...and he sure didn't lay an egg.  It is ludicrous....and other than Seton Hall - Dawson has not looked overmatched in any game.  Not quite the defender Derrick is...but my God...he can shoot the basketball, and is willing.  An 81% FT shooter has a good stroke.  His midrange game is there...and I have all the confidence he'll be a 35+% 3 point shooter in his MU career.

[NavinRJohnson]

He asked a question. He didn't diminish Davante. Questions do not equal dissent.

To Ners they do, particularly when asked to consider something beyond his simplistic strawman theories.

[NersEllenson]

To Ners they do, particularly when asked to consider something beyond his simplistic strawman theories.

LOL - You've represented yourself as quite the basketball genius this year.  Care to answer esoteric's rebuttal to try to get out of your strawman??

Funny you pick that 3 game stretch and not this one:

Sat Jan 18    Butler    L, 69-57    •    42    112
Mon Jan 20 G"town   W, 80-72    •    40    138
Sat Jan 25  Villanova    L, 94-85    •    39    144

Playing 40 minutes a game and his efficiency improves. May not mean anything? It's not a small sample size. Good Grief.

So on two days rest...Gardner went from a 112 after playing 42 minutes to a 138 playing 40 minutes....but nope..let's question if he could maintain it for a full season when given a 15 game sample size...and focus on the one true outlier (Seton Hall), to try to build a strawman argument!

Pot meet kettle.  You got owned by esoteric.  Own it.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Come on TAMU...I mean at what point do you just not concede this hasn't been Buzz's best year?  In my opinion, he's totally and completely ignored the most obvious of data - Mayo and Gardner are two best players on team - and Derrick is severely limited - yet he still can't concede more minutes to Dawson, and just play Davante a consistent 32'.  He's at least come around on Mayo FINALLY..and the results are obvious.

He's given more minutes to Derrick than any other player on the team....when all data and stats show he's extremely limited.  Buzz has given Dawson ONE game of 30 minutes at GTown...and he sure didn't lay an egg.  It is ludicrous....and other than Seton Hall - Dawson has not looked overmatched in any game.  Not quite the defender Derrick is...but my God...he can shoot the basketball, and is willing.  An 81% FT shooter has a good stroke.  His midrange game is there...and I have all the confidence he'll be a 35+% 3 point shooter in his MU career.

An argument was presented. It was backed by data. I pointed out a flaw with the data.

My point, as it ever is, is that Buzz has all the data. We have maybe 7% of the data. We can argue all we want about how to interpret it. For example, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and projected points per game actually favor Derrick over Dawson for point guard. But as you've pointed out, Dawson may be hindered by the short stints on the court that he gets. I don't accuse you of ignoring data, I just disagree with you interpretation.

But to state the Buzz IGNORES data is absurd. Buzz is one of the biggest statheads in the nation. He knows them better than any of us do. He also has access to more data than we do. You were an athlete, you know things that happen outside of the court can affect your performance on the court. Buzz knows what happens off the court.

As it happens, I agree on Davante. I want more of him. I think he's a mismatch nightmare and can only help us win.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

LOL - You've represented yourself as quite the basketball genius this year.  Care to answer esoteric's rebuttal to try to get out of your strawman??

So on two days rest...Gardner went from a 112 after playing 42 minutes to a 138 playing 40 minutes....but nope..let's question if he could maintain it for a full season when given a 15 game sample size...and focus on the one true outlier (Seton Hall), to try to build a strawman argument!

Pot meet kettle.  You got owned by esoteric.  Own it.

Butler and Georgetown are 2 of the bottom 4 teams in the BEast in pace per KenPom. Still want more Davante. But just showing that there are more factors. You can't pick one stat, throw it in someone's face, and say owned. Too much data out there.

[jesmu84]

Easy tough guys. One poster made a rather large claim. I simply asked for a source (if he had researched it himself, or seen the evidence somewhere). There was no statistics or evidence provided, initially. No need to get all worked up. I wasn't defending or attacking anyone for anything. Simply asked for the evidence.

Also, shouldn't the evidence be presented include his ORating after 30-32 minutes as compared to the first 30-32? I think, for me, that'd be more proof that there wouldn't be diminishing returns within a game itself, as opposed to multiple games.

[NersEllenson]

Butler and Georgetown are 2 of the bottom 4 teams in the BEast in pace per KenPom. Still want more Davante. But just showing that there are more factors. You can't pick one stat, throw it in someone's face, and say owned. Too much data out there.

Like 15 games of Gardner getting 28+ and in 13 of the 15 putting up ORatings of 112+...and a 138 on two days rest against GTown?  Where does Seton Hall rank on pace in Big East - as that was the game Navin tried to point to, to suggest that because of 1 outlier game...it could be a narrative that he wouldn't perform as well for a whole season.

Don't know about you, but if 13 of 15 games over 28 games all point toward Gardner playing at a high efficiency rating...I'd roll the dice, and certainly would think Buzz would too.

[mattyv1908]

Source?

Sports-Reference.com

[mattyv1908]

Trust me, I want me some more Davante Gardner. But looking at minutes alone doesn't work. Pace of the game matters. If Davante is playing a slow team where he gets to walk up and down the court, he could play all 40 minutes! But he could end up in a game where possession is going back and forth and he has to sprint up and down. Not only that, but it matters how Davante is feeling that day. Maybe he didn't sleep well. Maybe he ate a heavy meal. Maybe he's stressing about a test.

Now these things affect all players. My point is, Buzz has all the data. I guarantee you that he has seen every piece of data under the sun about his team and of all of his team's opponents. Buzz knows all the things we know...but he also knows a million more things than we do. We don't have all the data. Buzz does. I trust Buzz to make the decisions that are best for our team.

Not saying that Buzz is infallible. I love debating his decisions. But people here act as if they know everything there is to know when in reality we know less than 7% of what Buzz knows.

TAMU - offensive efficiency doesn't take into account pace as it's based on per possession basis.  The fact that he's putting up huge OReg numbers against multiple opponents playing multiple tempos suggests he's plenty capable of playing those minutes without his numbers dropping.

[mattyv1908]

Ok, here's the best way to have it make sense to the posters questioning Gardner getting more minutes being a detriment.

The difference between Gardner and Otule on a 40 minute basis is nearly 10 points/game better offensively for Gardner and roughly 1 point/game worse defensively for Gardner.  If you doubt those numbers simply look at both their Offensive and Defensive ratings and do the calculations yourselves.

Even if the difference between Otule and Gardner's offensive efficiency was cut in half from Gardner's 30th minute on, he'd still be nearly 5 points/game better than Otule.

This is simply a topic that shouldn't even be debated at this point as the numbers are so far in Gardner's favor it's willful ignorance to discount them.