Starters vs. Bench shooting percentage

[mattyv1908]

Starters:  5-23 (21.7%), 5-10 (50%) free throws

Bench:  13-22 (59.1%), 11-15 (73.3%) free throws


I'm going to give Thomas a pass as he knocks down shots consistently of late, but how on earth can our coaching staff justify this discrepancy?


Our bench outscored our starters 39-17.

Our starters played 119 minutes to our bench playing 81.


You cannot win games against quality opponents when your best players don't play as much as your role players.  Show me any other team in America having success with this method.

[mileskishnish72]

Good post, Matty. I had the feeling of this, but you have quantified it nicely. I do think we have to strongly consider a change in the starting five. Today wasn't as bad as usual, because I think Jake hit his three early. It was 8-6 and I felt if we got a stop we had a chance. We actually made two stops, but pissed it away on the other end rapidly. Next thing you know, it's an 8-pt. lead.

My thinking is sub Ox in ASAP, but start Todd instead of Juan - at least then there are 2-3 guys who are a threat to score.

[jesmu84]

So, you are saying that Buzz's methods are wrong and don't work. Is your feeling then that you would like us to get a new coach?

[mattyv1908]

So, you are saying that Buzz's methods are wrong and don't work. Is your feeling then that you would like us to get a new coach?

Is your one trick pony response to question one's allegience to our coach?

I'm generally very positive regarding Buzz, but I'm also a realist.  I think Buzz, to his credit, is a much better recruiter than he is a basketball coach.  He's personally recruited two NBA players (Butler, Crowder) and several others sniffing around the league (Blue, Byucks, DJO, Lockett).  He also has gotten quality NCAA players in Gardner, Jamil Wilson and Cadougan.

This year we're seeing Buzz Williams struggle from the side lines.  It's not all his fault, but let's not forget EVERY SINGLE ONE of these players has been recruited and coached by Buzz and the staff.  This is not a team he inherited.  This is a team he recruited.

Some kids have heart, some kids have talent, some kids have both heart and talent.

This year he keeps rolling out kids full of the former and lacking the latter.  While I greatly admire Buzz's commitment to these kids beyond the basketball court, let's not forget the most important reason he's getting paid big money.  He's paid to win basketball games, plain and simple.  Had he realized that this year's team wasn't responding to what usually makes his teams better, a different strategy could have yielded different results.  If a coach can't adjust to the kids he brought into the organization, how good of a coach is he?

Of course I don't want Buzz gone.  I think he'll actually be a better coach when he has a chance to reflect on this season after it's over.

Now can you please stop with your typical in Buzz we trust schtick?  It's unoriginal, lacking of intellect and just plain tiresome.

[jesmu84]

Is your one trick pony response to question one's allegience to our coach?

I'm generally very positive regarding Buzz, but I'm also a realist.  I think Buzz, to his credit, is a much better recruiter than he is a basketball coach.  He's personally recruited two NBA players (Butler, Crowder) and several others sniffing around the league (Blue, Byucks, DJO, Lockett).  He also has gotten quality NCAA players in Gardner, Jamil Wilson and Cadougan.

This year we're seeing Buzz Williams struggle from the side lines.  It's not all his fault, but let's not forget EVERY SINGLE ONE of these players has been recruited and coached by Buzz and the staff.  This is not a team he inherited.  This is a team he recruited.

Some kids have heart, some kids have talent, some kids have both heart and talent.

This year he keeps rolling out kids full of the former and lacking the latter.  While I greatly admire Buzz's commitment to these kids beyond the basketball court, let's not forget the most important reason he's getting paid big money.  He's paid to win basketball games, plain and simple.  Had he realized that this year's team wasn't responding to what usually makes his teams better, a different strategy could have yielded different results.  If a coach can't adjust to the kids he brought into the organization, how good of a coach is he?

Of course I don't want Buzz gone.  I think he'll actually be a better coach when he has a chance to reflect on this season after it's over.

Now can you please stop with your typical in Buzz we trust schtick?  It's unoriginal, lacking of intellect and just plain tiresome.

What's tiresome is the same people saying the same things over and over and over and over on this board. We get it, you (collective "you") don't like players or Buzz's decisions or minutes distribution or whatever. I just don't get the need to create dozens of threads throughout this season saying the same thing. You're not going to change people's minds. I get the discussion portion, but at this point, this team is what it is and isn't going to change. And, for the most part, Buzz's MO is going to remain the same. There are 100 variables that have led to the results this season, many in Buzz's control, some out of his control.

You seem confused by my and possibly other posters' stance. I don't think Buzz is infallible. I don't like where we are. I don't like when our players play like garbage. Hell, if you were in the gamechat today, you would have seen me make several comments questioning Buzz's decisions. I wish Todd started over Juan, but I'm also not going to cheer when Juan gets into foul trouble. I sincerely hope that he does reflect on this season and learn from it. I think he will find that what worked in the past just didn't work this season, for any combination of reasons.

The problem I find with these types of posts, is that it doesn't really invite discussion. It invites people to agree with your viewpoint or argue against it. It's inflammatory in nature.

[esotericmindguy]

60% of the starting 5 offers very little on the offensive end...one could make an argument Jamil adds little as well. It's fine against average teams, but good teams will continually handle Marquette. They are so easy to guard. Everyone in the building knows Juan and Derrick will not shoot and all you have to do is push Otule off the block and he's neutralized.

Every sane fan can see the best lineup is Wilson, Mayo, Thomas, Wilson and Gardner, yet buzz only plays them a 1/4 of the game together. 21.5% of the time he plays DWilson, Juan and Otule together and they get worked by every decent team. It's hard to be a fan when Buzz obviously is rewarding people not players. As a fan I don't give a darn if Derrick Wilson, Otule and Juan are good people. I want the best players on the court. I'm glad their good people of course, but this is high level basketball, perform or get out of the way. That's another good life lesson.

[mattyv1908]

What's tiresome is the same people saying the same things over and over and over and over on this board. We get it, you (collective "you") don't like players or Buzz's decisions or minutes distribution or whatever. I just don't get the need to create dozens of threads throughout this season saying the same thing. You're not going to change people's minds. I get the discussion portion, but at this point, this team is what it is and isn't going to change. And, for the most part, Buzz's MO is going to remain the same. There are 100 variables that have led to the results this season, many in Buzz's control, some out of his control.

You seem confused by my and possibly other posters' stance. I don't think Buzz is infallible. I don't like where we are. I don't like when our players play like garbage. Hell, if you were in the gamechat today, you would have seen me make several comments questioning Buzz's decisions. I wish Todd started over Juan, but I'm also not going to cheer when Juan gets into foul trouble. I sincerely hope that he does reflect on this season and learn from it. I think he will find that what worked in the past just didn't work this season, for any combination of reasons.

I don't have animosity towards any player on the team, I never jumped on benching Derrick Wilson (I've even supported him playing over Dawson as his offensive ratings are all far more efficient), and I really haven't questioned the overall playing time save for getting a player like Burton more game time experience in the non conference.

What I did with this post, like I have tried to do in the previous weeks, is show a different version of what we think we see while watching the games through various statistical analysis.

Today's shooting woes and playing time of our starters compared to our bench, and more specifically Gardner, Mayo and Burton was so appalling I compiled the numbers for the board to reflect upon.  Sorry if that bothered you.

Now how on earth does you asking if I think we need to make a coaching change have anything to do with our starting five shooting 20% and being outscored by our bench more than 2 to 1?

[jesmu84]

I don't have animosity towards any player on the team, I never jumped on benching Derrick Wilson (I've even supported him playing over Dawson as his offensive ratings are all far more efficient), and I really haven't questioned the overall playing time save for getting a player like Burton more game time experience in the non conference.

What I did with this post, like I have tried to do in the previous weeks, is show a different version of what we think we see while watching the games through various statistical analysis.

Today's shooting woes and playing time of our starters compared to our bench, and more specifically Gardner, Mayo and Burton was so appalling I compiled the numbers for the board to reflect upon.  Sorry if that bothered you.

Now how on earth does you asking if I think we need to make a coaching change have anything to do with our starting five shooting 20% and being outscored by our bench more than 2 to 1?

Doesn't bother me at all. I appreciate both current and former posters bringing stats to the board. I like being able to read things about our team as well as analyze the numbers.

The last line of your post is what got me. It's a very inflammatory statement. You didn't just post the stats and then them be. You're looking for people to agree with you. But why? Let's say every post in this thread said something to the effect of "No, there are no teams in the country who have success with this method." What's the end game? That's not really a discussion. It's pretty obvious that not playing your "best" players isn't going to work. So, again, what is the conclusion you were seeking with this post? Because it certainly didn't appear to be discussion of opinions.

[mattyv1908]

I'm not trying to be inflammatory, but the facts remain that we're 17-12, way outside the bubble and the only guys capable of making shots consistantly see less of the court than the guys that would struggle shooting on an 8' rim.

What is the point of a Marquette basketball forum if people are not honestly allowed to have discussions regarding what should've been possibly done differently?

I don't think this team was a final four contender, but I do think had this year been handled differently by the coaching staff we'd easily be sitting at 20-9 and safely in the field at this point.  Can we not talk about what seems obvious to the majority of this board yet seems to escape Buzz as to what is wrong with this team?

[jesmu84]

I'm not trying to be inflammatory, but the facts remain that we're 17-12, way outside the bubble and the only guys capable of making shots consistantly see less of the court than the guys that would struggle shooting on an 8' rim.

What is the point of a Marquette basketball forum if people are not honestly allowed to have discussions regarding what should've been possibly done differently?

I don't think this team was a final four contender, but I do think had this year been handled differently by the coaching staff we'd easily be sitting at 20-9 and safely in the field at this point.  Can we not talk about what seems obvious to the majority of this board yet seems to escape Buzz as to what is wrong with this team?

Ok, we'll do that. As I've said before, there are several players who don't see much court time who are better scorers than those who are seeing court time. Buzz seems to choose not to use that as a variable in distributing minutes. I have no idea why he does it that way, other than his statements about players playing to the scouting report and doing what he asks.

Now what? What else is there to say? Everyone is going to agree with the statement that if you don't play your best players, you're going to win less games than you could.

[GGGG]

Starters:  5-23 (21.7%), 5-10 (50%) free throws

Bench:  13-22 (59.1%), 11-15 (73.3%) free throws


I'm going to give Thomas a pass as he knocks down shots consistently of late, but how on earth can our coaching staff justify this discrepancy?


Our bench outscored our starters 39-17.

Our starters played 119 minutes to our bench playing 81.


You cannot win games against quality opponents when your best players don't play as much as your role players.  Show me any other team in America having success with this method.

One game discrepancy.

Derrick, Jake, Jamil, Davante, Todd are our five minute leaders and two of them come off the bench.  They account for 50+ of MU's 72 ppg.

[esotericmindguy]

One game discrepancy.

Derrick, Jake, Jamil, Davante, Todd are our five minute leaders and two of them come off the bench.  They account for 50+ of MU's 72 ppg.

Not really. Those five guys are clearly the best players and only play together 24.6% of the time according to KenPom. Why is that? The defense stinks regardless of who's out there, it was open shot after open shot, might as well play the best offensive lineup and hope the other teams miss.

[77ncaachamps]

I'm going to give Thomas a pass as he knocks down shots consistently of late, but how on earth can our coaching staff justify this discrepancy?

Don't give him the pass. He doesn't deserve it.

3/2 Nova: 2-8 FG, 1-7 3PT, 0-0 FT
2/27 GTown:  7-12 FG, 6-9 3pt, 2-2 FT
2/22 DePaul:  3-8 FG, 3-6 3pt, 0-0 FT
2/19 Creighton:  3-10 FG, 1-4 3PT, 2-2 FT
2/15 Xavier:  6-11 FG, 6-10 3PT, 0-0 FT
2/11 SHU:  2-7 FG, 1-6 3PT, 1-2 FT
2/4  Butler:  2-6 FG, 1-4 3PT, 2-4 FT
2/1 SJU:  4-7 FG, 3-5 3PT, 0-0 FT
1/30 PRov:  1-5 FG, 1-5 3PT, 0-0 FT
1/25 Nova:  0-2 FG, 0-2 3PT, 0-0 FT

In the last 10 games, he had TWO big games (22 vs Gtown and 18 vs Xavier) but only other ONE in double digits (SJU). He had one scoreless game! His FG% over the last 10 games? .381. Not deserving of a pass.

He averaged ONE FTA over the last 10 games! Not good enough for a shooting guard.
Hilliard had 10 attempts in ONE game vs MU!!!

smdh

[bilsu]

There were two key plays in the first half. The obvious one was Thomas not being given the timeout when he had the ball on the floor. The kid always hustles. The other one was were Derrick instead of hustling to get the ball tried to unsuccessfully screen the Villanova player from getting to the ball. Those plays led to 7 Villanova points. Everyone seems to think Thomas is out there, because of his shooting. He is not out there, because of his shooting. He is out there, because often times he is the only player that plays like every possession matters which is the most important thing in Buzz's mind.

[jesmu84]

There were two key plays in the first half. The obvious one was Thomas not being given the timeout when he had the ball on the floor. The kid always hustles. The other one was were Derrick instead of hustling to get the ball tried to unsuccessfully screen the Villanova player from getting to the ball. Those plays led to 7 Villanova points. Everyone seems to think Thomas is out there, because of his shooting. He is not out there, because of his shooting. He is out there, because often times he is the only player that plays like every possession matters which is the most important thing in Buzz's mind.

Derrick should have grabbed the ball. However, the Nova player was 100% out of bounds when he tapped it back.

[UticaBusBarn]

I think Matty, in this, and other posts, has raised valid questions. More importantly, the questions have been based on a statistical basis and not on subjective criteria.

Personally, I am a big fan of Coach Williams. However, this year, particularly when one ponders statistics from a variety of sources, one has to wonder what is it he is trying to do.

Usually, even an occasional fan (as opposed to the rabid fans who populate this board) can figure out a coach, his scheme, player rotation, starting five, first off the bench, etc. But, it seems to not be so clear this year with Coach Williams.

It would be helpful to all of us, if Homer, Strotty/PT, Mike what's his name, or someone with raise some these points with Coach Williams and ask some direct questions based on the sort of statistics Matty and others have referenced.

In the first years of coaching the Warriors, Coach Williams was always quoting mathematical reality, in response to questions about his coaching. Remember the story about his pants having a bigger pocket to kept all his notes and numbers?

This year, the only response we receive is "I love him, his family, his story"; or, "So and so plays because he always goes hard in practice and they are the ones who deserve to play."

Putting aside the fact that there are three o'clock players and there are players who only play when the lights come on, and putting aside the fact that Coach Williams is correct in trying to protect the culture he brought to the Warriors, he still should respond to the substantial data that does not seem to support some of his coaching actions this year.

[tower912]

He has.   He has mentioned that he has no idea what he is going to get from a number of players when he puts them in the game.   And as razor thin as the margin is, he doesn't feel he has more than a few possessions to waste figuring out what player X is going to show.  So if X doesn't go out there and immediately play to the scouting report of defense, make smart decisions with the ball on offense, he doesn't feel he can leave X out there.   His default mode is to go with the more experienced player with a track record.   Whether or not I agree with this is immaterial.   Buzz has made it clear in interviews and on his radio show that this is what he is doing this year. 
   Next year, with virtually no experience production returning, should be fascinating to watch.   

[g0lden3agle]

Don't give him the pass. He doesn't deserve it.

3/2 Nova: 2-8 FG, 1-7 3PT, 0-0 FT
2/27 GTown:  7-12 FG, 6-9 3pt, 2-2 FT
2/22 DePaul:  3-8 FG, 3-6 3pt, 0-0 FT
2/19 Creighton:  3-10 FG, 1-4 3PT, 2-2 FT
2/15 Xavier:  6-11 FG, 6-10 3PT, 0-0 FT
2/11 SHU:  2-7 FG, 1-6 3PT, 1-2 FT
2/4  Butler:  2-6 FG, 1-4 3PT, 2-4 FT
2/1 SJU:  4-7 FG, 3-5 3PT, 0-0 FT
1/30 PRov:  1-5 FG, 1-5 3PT, 0-0 FT
1/25 Nova:  0-2 FG, 0-2 3PT, 0-0 FT

In the last 10 games, he had TWO big games (22 vs Gtown and 18 vs Xavier) but only other ONE in double digits (SJU). He had one scoreless game! His FG% over the last 10 games? .381. Not deserving of a pass.

He averaged ONE FTA over the last 10 games! Not good enough for a shooting guard.
Hilliard had 10 attempts in ONE game vs MU!!!

smdh

In those 10 games he's 23-58 from three, good for nearly a 40% 3pt%. Thomas is what he is.  Shooting 40% from 3 is definitely what we should be happy to get out of him.

[tower912]

I don't dislike Derrick.  I don't dislike Jake.   The problem is them playing together.    If Derrick had a dynamic two guard next to him who could hit the 3 and create off of the dribble, getting into the lane at will, and creating opportunities for others, say a  Vander Blue type, we would see Derrick as an Eric Snow type game manager.   Snow played next to Shawn Respert for Sparty.   He couldn't shoot, couldn't make a free throw, but could defend.   And he could make a lay up in traffic better than Derrick.   
         If Jake had a dynamic PG next to him,  someone who could break down defenders and get into the lane at will, making floaters and creating for others down low on the dish off, we would be admiring Jake's abilities to be a catch and shoot guy who plays the game the right way and is a steadying influence on defense while the dynamic PG is all over the place taking chances. 
    Together, neither can create off of the dribble, neither can get their own shot.   And what truly pains me is not that Buzz keeps playing them but that none of the young guys has seized the opportunity to make it impossible for Buzz NOT to play them in front of these offensively limited model citizen/great teammate/hard worker/defending to the scouting report/would let your daughter date either/ players.   

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Starters:  5-23 (21.7%), 5-10 (50%) free throws

Bench:  13-22 (59.1%), 11-15 (73.3%) free throws

Just out of curiosity I reran the numbers when you insert Mayo/Gardner and take out Juan/Otule. I did this because even though Juan and Chris start, they don't get starter's minutes. I put more value on total minutes than when the minutes came. Here are the results:

Starters: 13-31 (41.9 %) 7-9 (77.8%, no front end misses)
Bench: 7-14 (50%) 9-16 (56.3% +2 front end misses)

What this tells me is that we need more of our best lineup: Derrick, Mayo, Thomas, J Wilson, and Gardner. With healthy doses of Otule, Burton, and Dawson. Juan and Taylor as role players. Johnson, I don't have enough data on.

I would like to see Mayo inserted into the starting lineup instead of Juan. I'm fine with Chris starting for the tip. However, I understand that Buzz has more data or may need to enforce some a particular kind of culture for his team. If he goes against his own values, he loses all credibility with his players.

[mattyv1908]

Just out of curiosity I reran the numbers when you insert Mayo/Gardner and take out Juan/Otule. I did this because even though Juan and Chris start, they don't get starter's minutes. I put more value on total minutes than when the minutes came. Here are the results:

Starters: 13-31 (41.9 %) 7-9 (77.8%, no front end misses)
Bench: 7-14 (50%) 9-16 (56.3% +2 front end misses)

What this tells me is that we need more of our best lineup: Derrick, Mayo, Thomas, J Wilson, and Gardner. With healthy doses of Otule, Burton, and Dawson. Juan and Taylor as role players. Johnson, I don't have enough data on.

I would like to see Mayo inserted into the starting lineup instead of Juan. I'm fine with Chris starting for the tip. However, I understand that Buzz has more data or may need to enforce some a particular kind of culture for his team. If he goes against his own values, he loses all credibility with his players.

Otule and Anderson each got at least 15 minutes.  While they did play less than Mayo and Gardner the difference wasn't staggering in terms of minutes.  While I agree that they don't get starter minutes, they do see the court for extended periods of time with the likes of Derrick Wilson, Jake Thomas, and Jamil Wilson.  Our starting line up consists of three non offensive factors (Otule, D Wilson, Anderson) and two extremely streaky and inconsistent offensive players (Thomas, J Wilson) and they play at least 8 minutes a game together.  That right there is a recipe for why this season has become what it is.

At this point Burton should be playing as much as Jamil Wilson.  For all the talk about his shot selection, he has the highest FG% of anyone on the team besides Gardner and Otule (both low post players).  For all the talk about his poor defense, he gives up the least points per 100 possessions when he's on the court and now manages to either create a steal or a blocked shot on 11% of opponents possessions - leading the team in both categories.

And do keep in mind what the defensive rating per 100 possessions stat is tracking.  It takes every possession Burton has played on the defensive end (regardless of the four other players) and divides that by 100 possessions.  If he's really costing the team points as the subjective eye testers on this forum claim, wouldn't his numbers reflect that?  Or better yet, how come the players who play far more minutes than Burton does allow significantly more (10+) points per 100 possessions with Burton on the bench the majority of that time?

The average defensive rating for the team is 101.4 pts/100 possessions.  Burton's is 92.6 pts/100 possessions.

[77ncaachamps]

In those 10 games he's 23-58 from three, good for nearly a 40% 3pt%. Thomas is what he is.  Shooting 40% from 3 is definitely what we should be happy to get out of him.

I agree but that's one-dimensional and he has no PG that could draw the defense off him.
That's why there are some here who thinks plays should be run for him.

I say, NO.