chances

[MU72491]

what happens if Marquette beats Providence and St. Johns and loses to Nova on the road.  Then come Big East toury time Marquette beats someone in the first round then loses its second game.  Are we in??? I know its obviously based on a bunch of different teams but could only 3 more wins give us a decent chance???

[Jay Bee]

what happens if Marquette beats Providence and St. Johns and loses to Nova on the road.  Then come Big East toury time Marquette beats someone in the first round then loses its second game.  Are we in??? I know its obviously based on a bunch of different teams but could only 3 more wins give us a decent chance???

Under that scenario I'd feel "decent" about our chances.

[Windyplayer]

what happens if Marquette beats Providence and St. Johns and loses to Nova on the road.  Then come Big East toury time Marquette beats someone in the first round then loses its second game.  Are we in??? I know its obviously based on a bunch of different teams but could only 3 more wins give us a decent chance???

"Decent" is the appropriate word, but we'd still have zero marquee wins. We'd have solid wins, but not great wins. A win tomorrow would cure almost all that is ailing us. It's really an unreal opportunity to have the chance to knock of a top 10 team on the road at this time of the year, given our current position. Also, doesn't hurt that it's on national television for some committee members to take in. I know the odds are against us, but it's fun to believe.

That being said, the committee would have difficulty ignoring an 11-7 team in a power conference assuming we lose to Nova, and then knock of Providence and SJU.

[muwarrior69]

Let's win the BET and not worry.

[Avenue Commons]

Winning 3/5 would put us at the magical 20 wins with 13 losses and 11-7 in conference.

Our chances at that point would depend a lot on random teams not gobbling up automatic qualifier bids.

To feel ok I think MU needs to run the table in the regular season and pick up at least one win in the Big East tournament. That scenario would put us at 21-12 and 14-7 in conference. That'd be a pretty decent resume. Now we just need to do it!

[Windyplayer]

Winning 3/5 would put us at the magical 20 wins with 13 losses and 11-7 in conference.

Our chances at that point would depend a lot on random teams not gobbling up automatic qualifier bids.

To feel ok I think MU needs to run the table in the regular season and pick up at least one win in the Big East tournament. That scenario would put us at 21-12 and 14-7 in conference. That'd be a pretty decent resume. Now we just need to do it!

If we ran the table in the regular season, we would be a stone-cold lock. No question. We would have won 9 of our last 10 with big road wins. We'd have a 13-6 conference record putting us comfortably in 3rd place behind two top 10 teams. We wouldn't even have to show up to the Garden. Your scenario would probably put us at a #8 or #9 seed in the Dance.

[ChicosBailBonds]

what happens if Marquette beats Providence and St. Johns and loses to Nova on the road.  Then come Big East toury time Marquette beats someone in the first round then loses its second game.  Are we in??? I know its obviously based on a bunch of different teams but could only 3 more wins give us a decent chance???

I would think outside looking in, probably first four out

[Windyplayer]

I would think outside looking in, probably first four out

Beat Nova, lose to either Providence or SJU and win one in the BE tourney?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Beat Nova, lose to either Providence or SJU and win one in the BE tourney?

That would give us roughly a 56 RPI without including the BE tourney win.

That's right on the border of not making it.  57 was Kentucky last year, just as an example.  La Tech, 51.  Both went to the NIT. 

[4everwarriors]

Under that scenario I'd feel "decent" about our chances.

You've never been decent, Boss.

[MauraDay]

No disrespect intended towards Wichita State, as the only teams you can beat are the ones on your schedule and they have done that, but it seems their only significant win is against St. Louis, and WS is a possible number 1 seed. My point is we haven't beaten anyone significant, but they almost haven't either.

I suppose the argument against this though is they haven't had the opportunity, but we have. I realize I may have just made my post pointless by arguing against myself.

[River rat]

Two things:
1) like it or not wichita state is 30-0 and if you do that u deserve ur ranking.   Additionally, much of the respect they receive is duly rewarded because of last year.  Return basically the same team that almost wins a national title n then goes 30-0.  They deserve it n are reaally good.

2) 4 wins n mu is in, 3 n all the intangibles hurt us n we miss out, imo

[ChicosBailBonds]

No disrespect intended towards Wichita State, as the only teams you can beat are the ones on your schedule and they have done that, but it seems their only significant win is against St. Louis, and WS is a possible number 1 seed. My point is we haven't beaten anyone significant, but they almost haven't either.

I suppose the argument against this though is they haven't had the opportunity, but we have. I realize I may have just made my post pointless by arguing against myself.

Gonzaga last year.  #1 seed shouldn't go to WSU, but they'll do it.  RPI has WSU 8th....that's barely a 2 seed. 

They do have three top 50 wins.  Tennessee, BYU, SLU.   Six total wins vs top 100, but you are right that most of their damage has been 101-200 where they are 14-0.

[79Warrior]

I would think outside looking in, probably first four out

This.

[copious1218]

Need four more wins in my opinion, regardless of who they come against.

[brandx]

what happens if Marquette beats Providence and St. Johns and loses to Nova on the road.  Then come Big East toury time Marquette beats someone in the first round then loses its second game.  Are we in??? I know its obviously based on a bunch of different teams but could only 3 more wins give us a decent chance???

Don't see any way to get in with only 3 more wins. Since we are not in the first 4 out or the next 4 out, chances would be pretty slim. Only possible out would be X losing its last 2 games (very possible) so that we would grab 3rd place alone in the conference - that might get us in although I am not convinced.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Gonzaga last year.  #1 seed shouldn't go to WSU, but they'll do it.  RPI has WSU 8th....that's barely a 2 seed. 

They do have three top 50 wins.  Tennessee, BYU, SLU.   Six total wins vs top 100, but you are right that most of their damage has been 101-200 where they are 14-0.

You put way too much stock into RPI. I would take WSU against any team in the country except Syracuse and Florida.

[ChicosBailBonds]

You put way too much stock into RPI. I would take WSU against any team in the country except Syracuse and Florida.

I like WSU, I may even put them in my Final Four depending on who is in their draw.  I like them a lot more than Gonzaga last year.  All that being said, I worry about putting stock in teams that haven't been challenged due to a weak schedule.  How will they react when they have to play someone good, are behind at the half or with 5 minutes to go, etc.

For giggles, here's how the other power rating systems have them

RPI 8
Sagarin 16
Ken Pom 7
Warren Nolan 1
BPI 6

[MarquetteDano]

You put way too much stock into RPI. I would take WSU against any team in the country except Syracuse and Florida.

They are a really good team.  But their schedule has done them no favors.... and I am not talking about seeding, SOS, RPI, etc..

They have basically played three close games all year.  That is a recipe for disaster come tourney time.  They haven't been tested by great teams for a large part of their schedule and when they are finally tested in a game,  they will probably lose.

Reminds me of that UNLV team after they won the championship.  They were blowing out everyone they played, including the NCAA tourney.  Then they finally played a close game against Duke and lost.

[forgetful]

Gonzaga last year.  #1 seed shouldn't go to WSU, but they'll do it.  RPI has WSU 8th....that's barely a 2 seed. 

They do have three top 50 wins.  Tennessee, BYU, SLU.   Six total wins vs top 100, but you are right that most of their damage has been 101-200 where they are 14-0.

And who beat Gonzaga last year?

[ChicosBailBonds]

And who beat Gonzaga last year?

WSU.  You could line up 15+ other teams that would have done the same thing. Gonzaga was a sham last year to be a 1 seed. 

[The Equalizer]

Winning 3/5 would put us at the magical 20 wins with 13 losses and 11-7 in conference.

Our chances at that point would depend a lot on random teams not gobbling up automatic qualifier bids.

To feel ok I think MU needs to run the table in the regular season and pick up at least one win in the Big East tournament. That scenario would put us at 21-12 and 14-7 in conference. That'd be a pretty decent resume. Now we just need to do it!

There is nothing "magical" about 20 wins.  Or 21 for that matter.  Even from a top 6 conference.

22 is the number where odds go better than 50/50 for a bid.

I went through all teams with 20 or 21 wins from a big 6 conference last year--same 68 slots to fill.

LEFT OUT:
Iowa with 21 wins.
Arizona State with 21 wins.
Alabama with 21 wins
Kentucky with 21 wins
Tennessee with 20 wins
Virginia with 21 wins
Maryland with 22 wins

IN:
Villanova made it with 20 wins, had victories over Louisville and Syracuse.
Minnesota made it with 21 wins, had a 12-1 nonconference, and victories over Indiana and Wisconsin
Colorado made it with 21, had a 10-2 nonconference and a win over Arizona
Cal made it with 20, had wins over UCLA and Arizona
Oklahoma with 20 made it, had a win over Kansas

In the top 6 conferences last year, 20 or 21 win teams all had a marquee win or two under their belts.

For those counting on the conference tournament, a cautionary note: none of the teams qualifying did so with their marquee win in their conference tournament--the were all regular season gams.  

In fact, Maryland's 22nd win came against Duke in the ACC tournament--and they were still left out.   I think this reflects the fact that the committee members already have their working brackets filled out before the tournaments begin.  Winning a game isnt' enough to grab their attention--winning the whole thing forces them to take notice.

Bottom line:  20 or 21 wins from a top six conference is less than a 50/50 proposition.  Making the tourney with 20 or 21 requires a marqee win prior to the conference tournament.

[forgetful]

WSU.  You could line up 15+ other teams that would have done the same thing. Gonzaga was a sham last year to be a 1 seed. 

That is pure speculation.  They only lost to WSU, that team went to the final four and lost to the eventual national champions by 4 points.

That team returns almost completely intact and is 30-0.  Gonzaga losing does nothing to say they didn't deserve a number 1 seed.  WSU's record says they earned it....and if they lose early in the NCAA tournament it will mean nothing.

[willie warrior]

There is nothing "magical" about 20 wins.  Or 21 for that matter.  Even from a top 6 conference.

22 is the number where odds go better than 50/50 for a bid.

I went through all teams with 20 or 21 wins from a big 6 conference last year--same 68 slots to fill.

LEFT OUT:
Iowa with 21 wins.
Arizona State with 21 wins.
Alabama with 21 wins
Kentucky with 21 wins
Tennessee with 20 wins
Virginia with 21 wins
Maryland with 22 wins

IN:
Villanova made it with 20 wins, had victories over Louisville and Syracuse.
Minnesota made it with 21 wins, had a 12-1 nonconference, and victories over Indiana and Wisconsin
Colorado made it with 21, had a 10-2 nonconference and a win over Arizona
Cal made it with 20, had wins over UCLA and Arizona
Oklahoma with 20 made it, had a win over Kansas

In the top 6 conferences last year, 20 or 21 win teams all had a marquee win or two under their belts.

For those counting on the conference tournament, a cautionary note: none of the teams qualifying did so with their marquee win in their conference tournament--the were all regular season gams.  

In fact, Maryland's 22nd win came against Duke in the ACC tournament--and they were still left out.   I think this reflects the fact that the committee members already have their working brackets filled out before the tournaments begin.  Winning a game isnt' enough to grab their attention--winning the whole thing forces them to take notice.

Bottom line:  20 or 21 wins from a top six conference is less than a 50/50 proposition.  Making the tourney with 20 or 21 requires a marqee win prior to the conference tournament.

Which is why we need at least 21, probably 22 with 2 signature wins. If you want to count GW for us as a signature, then we need likely 5 more wins which mean sweeping regular season and 1 win in tourney, or 3-1 regular season and play in tourney finals. We will not get in with 20 wins, and likely not 21.

[ChicosBailBonds]

That is pure speculation.  They only lost to WSU, that team went to the final four and lost to the eventual national champions by 4 points.

That team returns almost completely intact and is 30-0.  Gonzaga losing does nothing to say they didn't deserve a number 1 seed.  WSU's record says they earned it....and if they lose early in the NCAA tournament it will mean nothing.

Yup, it is speculation.  Of course, there were also a lot of smart people and rating systems that said no way Zaga should have been a 1 seed last year.  They were ripe and WSU more than happily obliged in taking them down.  In my opinion, someone else would have done the honors.  They came damn close to being the first 1 seed in history to go down...I believe it was the 4th closest 1 vs 16 game ever.