chances

[MarquetteFan94]

There is no way we get an at-large without beating Nova tomorrow. Losing tomorrow puts us 0-9 against the current top 25 - not worthy.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

There is no way we get an at-large without beating Nova tomorrow. Losing tomorrow puts us 0-9 against the current top 25 - not worthy.

Well arent you just a ray of sunshine?

[Fullodds]

If we end up with 11 BE wins it will make for an interesting discussion with the selection committee.  Most bubble teams with average RPI numbers also have other reasons to leave them out of the tourney, i.e., bad losses, weak conference, big blowouts, poor finishing games.

In our scenario, we could end up with 11 wins in a top 3 conference.  Many quality wins (not A+ exceptional but still quality) against GT (x2), GW, Xavier.  The key is we have absolutely no 'bad losses' and with the exception of Creighton, all losses were battles and close games.  Another vague variable is our tourney history, especially recently under Buzz.  For 3 years we have over-achieved in the tourney.

All this may not help but I'm thinking if we are sitting on the board against a team with a better RPI/SOS but who has bad losses or weaker conference or finished the season on a slide, etc. we may get the benefit of the doubt.  I cannot remember a bubble team with a resume as unique as MU's this year.  I also think the tourney will need 68 teams and if we win 3 games between now and selection Sunday we will be one of the 68 (and probably end up in the Sweet 16).

[ChicosBailBonds]

If we end up with 11 BE wins it will make for an interesting discussion with the selection committee.  Most bubble teams with average RPI numbers also have other reasons to leave them out of the tourney, i.e., bad losses, weak conference, big blowouts, poor finishing games.

In our scenario, we could end up with 11 wins in a top 3 conference.  Many quality wins (not A+ exceptional but still quality) against GT (x2), GW, Xavier.  The key is we have absolutely no 'bad losses' and with the exception of Creighton, all losses were battles and close games.  Another vague variable is our tourney history, especially recently under Buzz.  For 3 years we have over-achieved in the tourney.

All this may not help but I'm thinking if we are sitting on the board against a team with a better RPI/SOS but who has bad losses or weaker conference or finished the season on a slide, etc. we may get the benefit of the doubt.  I cannot remember a bubble team with a resume as unique as MU's this year.  I also think the tourney will need 68 teams and if we win 3 games between now and selection Sunday we will be one of the 68 (and probably end up in the Sweet 16).

We're not a top 3 conference, we're ranked 4th

Bad losses...depends on definition.  I've seen anything >100 as a "bad loss".  Butler is around 150th and we have that loss.

The thing about past performances....I would hope that never plays into the choosing of any team.  It certainly didn't last year as they kept out defending champion Kentucky.  It's supposed to be what you did this year and nothing more...thought it would help us this year, it could hurt is in other years.  In the back of someone's mind, sure it could creep in there with a pick, but my hope is that it doesn't happen.

[Jay Bee]

There are a million ways to consider MU's chances.. ultimately, it's a group of individuals with a lot of different information at their disposal... and like every year, it's a unique season.

Just three seasons ago MU was ranked #64 in the RPI. They got in.

USC was #67 and got in as an at-large.

We shall see.

Win the last two games + in the BET and I'm feeling DECENT. (For the first time ever?)

[Fullodds]

I guess a loss to Butler (150) on the road is not what I would consider a bad loss as compared to others in the past and especially a +100 loss at home.

Kenpom.com ranks the conferences and has BE as the 3rd place conference:

                 Conference   Rating   
1   Big Ten Conference   .8190   18   
2   Big 12 Conference   .8059   19   
3   Big East Conference   .7954   20   
4   Atlantic Coast Conf.     .7874   21   
5   Pac 12 Conference   .7812   22   

[ChicosBailBonds]

I guess a loss to Butler (150) on the road is not what I would consider a bad loss as compared to others in the past and especially a +100 loss at home.

Kenpom.com ranks the conferences and has BE as the 3rd place conference:

                 Conference   Rating   
1   Big Ten Conference   .8190   18   
2   Big 12 Conference   .8059   19   
3   Big East Conference   .7954   20   
4   Atlantic Coast Conf.     .7874   21   
5   Pac 12 Conference   .7812   22   

I'm going off what CBS puts on their screen, ESPN, etc. when the categorize "good losses" and "bad losses".  They include anything +100.

Fair enough on the Ken Pom. For others:

Sagarin Big East 4th
RPI Big East 4th
Warren Nolan Big East 4th

[Fullodds]

All right.  You win.  We have a bad loss and our conference is probably the 4th best.

Anyone interested in looking into bubble teams with our potential resume under the 68 team field?  I'd be interested to see if there is a comparable and if so, how did they do?

I'm going off what CBS puts on their screen, ESPN, etc. when the categorize "good losses" and "bad losses".  They include anything +100.

Fair enough on the Ken Pom. For others:

Sagarin Big East 4th
RPI Big East 4th
Warren Nolan Big East 4th

[ChicosBailBonds]

Not a matter of winning, just providing additional information.

Here's a USA today breakdown and they have "bad" as anything over 100.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2014/02/24/bubble-tracker-could-the-atlantic-10-ship-the-most-teams-to-ncaas/5773645/


Lots of bubble stuff here

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

[Jay Bee]

ESPN can't even come close to correctly calculating RPI. They are all f***ed up. Not being cute or joking around - their RPI is really screwed. But, they (and others) often hose things up.

I think a couple of things that give me hope...

With a loss tomorrow and a win in our final 2.. then going 1-1 in the BET.. that puts you at a .5957 adjusted winning percentage. That's acceptable.

Then it gets down to SOS.. and if the folks selecting teams understand what is truth - that is, "SOS" - whether it's RPI or projection system like KenPom - is NOT a measurement of how difficult a team's schedule is relative to wins and losses.

To determine how hard a team's schedule is requires real analysis and consideration. If that is done by the committee, MU's "bad SOS" becomes less of an issue and well it should. MU's NC schedule was difficult compared to most teams.

Put on your dancing shoes (or your slippers, in the case of ZFB).

[keefe]

There is no way we get an at-large without beating Nova tomorrow. Losing tomorrow puts us 0-9 against the current top 25 - not worthy.

Nailed it. Win tomorrow, or win the Tourney, or NIT

[ChicosBailBonds]

I'd keep my eye on dance card site.  We have a LOT of work to do.

[jesmu84]

Yup, it is speculation.  Of course, there were also a lot of smart people and rating systems that said no way Zaga should have been a 1 seed last year.  They were ripe and WSU more than happily obliged in taking them down.  In my opinion, someone else would have done the honors.  They came damn close to being the first 1 seed in history to go down...I believe it was the 4th closest 1 vs 16 game ever. 

couldn't that just be d/t it being a crapshoot?

[The Equalizer]

ESPN can't even come close to correctly calculating RPI. They are all f***ed up. Not being cute or joking around - their RPI is really screwed. But, they (and others) often hose things up.

I think a couple of things that give me hope...

With a loss tomorrow and a win in our final 2.. then going 1-1 in the BET.. that puts you at a .5957 adjusted winning percentage. That's acceptable.

Then it gets down to SOS.. and if the folks selecting teams understand what is truth - that is, "SOS" - whether it's RPI or projection system like KenPom - is NOT a measurement of how difficult a team's schedule is relative to wins and losses.

To determine how hard a team's schedule is requires real analysis and consideration. If that is done by the committee, MU's "bad SOS" becomes less of an issue and well it should. MU's NC schedule was difficult compared to most teams.

Put on your dancing shoes (or your slippers, in the case of ZFB).

Not including friday's PC/Seton Hall game, ESPN they had
Xavier at 48, Providence at 61, St. Johns at 62, and Georgetown at 65.

Realtime RPI (as of Saturday) has
Xavier at 46, Providence at 53, St. Johns at 61, Georgetown at 63

NCAA has
Xavier at 41, Providence at 60, St John's at 62 Georgetown at 65

CBS (as of Saturday)
Xaver at 46, Providence at 54, St. Johns at 61 and Georgetown at 65.

LiveRPI.com (3 PM  Saturday)
Xavier at 42, Providence at 56, St. Johns at 61 and Georgetown at 63

ESPN's numbers were from before Friday's Providence/Seton Hall matchup, which would explain why they had the worst ranking on Providence.

Thus, I'm not seeing how ESPN is "all f***ed up" and not even close.  They're in the same range as every other site--including the NCAA themselves.   

[brandx]

I guess a loss to Butler (150) on the road is not what I would consider a bad loss as compared to others in the past and especially a +100 loss at home.

   

Other than the fact that it may keep us out of the tournament 

(And yes - I realize you are talking schedule-wise)

[ChicosBailBonds]

couldn't that just be d/t it being a crapshoot?

Of course....then again....NEVER has a 16 lost to a 1

[forgetful]

Of course....then again....NEVER has a 16 lost to a 1

And they still haven't.

[jesmu84]

Of course....then again....NEVER has a 16 lost to a 1

right. i guess i just don't agree with that being evidence as to why Zaga should not have been a 1 seed.

[Jay Bee]

Not including friday's PC/Seton Hall game, ESPN they had
Xavier at 48, Providence at 61, St. Johns at 62, and Georgetown at 65.

Realtime RPI (as of Saturday) has
Xavier at 46, Providence at 53, St. Johns at 61, Georgetown at 63

NCAA has
Xavier at 41, Providence at 60, St John's at 62 Georgetown at 65

CBS (as of Saturday)
Xaver at 46, Providence at 54, St. Johns at 61 and Georgetown at 65.

LiveRPI.com (3 PM  Saturday)
Xavier at 42, Providence at 56, St. Johns at 61 and Georgetown at 63

ESPN's numbers were from before Friday's Providence/Seton Hall matchup, which would explain why they had the worst ranking on Providence.

Thus, I'm not seeing how ESPN is "all f***ed up" and not even close.  They're in the same range as every other site--including the NCAA themselves.   

There is one correct answer and they should all be able to get there. ESPN's basics are so horrendous that it's impossible they'd get to the correct answer. It's absurd how they could be as f'd up as they are.

The end result "isn't too far off", but with some of their errors they can not possible get it to be correct at any given time. It's horrible and sad. Errors that are inexcusable. You don't realize or understand what the errors are.. you only look the 'end result' at a given point in time..

Marquette beat Georgetown 75-73. For you, if ESPN said, "University of Marquette beat beat Washington State 76-72", you'd say, "well, close enough... pretty good."

I find it SICKENING.

GO ILLINI!

[MarsupialMadness]

We absolutely have to beat providence and St. John's. Those are must wins.

[79Warrior]

I'd keep my eye on dance card site.  We have a LOT of work to do.

It boils down to tomorrow. Lose and our only way in will be winning the BE tourney. To may folks living in fantasyland. We have to beat a Top 20.

[Aughnanure]

Which is why we need at least 21, probably 22 with 2 signature wins. If you want to count GW for us as a signature, then we need likely 5 more wins which mean sweeping regular season and 1 win in tourney, or 3-1 regular season and play in tourney finals. We will not get in with 20 wins, and likely not 21.

That's a little pessimistic. If we get Nova, then we'll have 3 top 50 wins and our RPI jumps to the the 50s. Even with a loss at Providence. Not to mention that our numbers will also jump in the other rating formulas (BPI, KenPom, Sagarin) where we are already in the 50s.

Agree I don't think  20 does it though. Some rando team in a 1-bid league is going to screw this up (not Wichita St winning). 21 with a win over Nova is getting close or 2-1 down the stretch with two wins in the BET.

[bilsu]

This is the way I am seeing it.
Lose to Villanova and beat Providence and St. John's results in Big East getting only three bids. Creighton, Villnova and Xavier.
Beat Nova and St. John's and Big East gets 5 bids. The above three plus MU & Providence.
Must wins for Big East to get 5 bids.
MU over Villanova
Providence over MU.
St John's could get in, if we beat Nova & Providence and lose to St. John's.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

This is the way I am seeing it.
Lose to Villanova and beat Providence and St. John's results in Big East getting only three bids. Creighton, Villnova and Xavier.
Beat Nova and St. John's and Big East gets 5 bids. The above three plus MU & Providence.
Must wins for Big East to get 5 bids.
MU over Villanova
Providence over MU.
St John's could get in, if we beat Nova & Providence and lose to St. John's.

Hmm. Interesting logic.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This is the way I am seeing it.
Lose to Villanova and beat Providence and St. John's results in Big East getting only three bids. Creighton, Villnova and Xavier.
Beat Nova and St. John's and Big East gets 5 bids. The above three plus MU & Providence.
Must wins for Big East to get 5 bids.
MU over Villanova
Providence over MU.
St John's could get in, if we beat Nova & Providence and lose to St. John's.

I think we get at least four. Don't forget that a non-lock could win the BET