+/- Results for GTown

[NersEllenson]

Some interesting data...interesting to look at not only on-court +/-, but also off court +/-, where in off court a positive number is a "negative" as it is the difference in points scored while player is on bench - points allowed while player is on bench...essentially off court +/- suggests the best relationship between scoring and defending....if you have a negative number in off court...means team is scoring less and giving up more while you are on bench..

http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2014/02/27/georgetown-73-marquette-75/plus_minus

Highlights - on court:
Gardner +9
Mayo +9
Dawson +7
Jake + 4

Off court +/- (Highest number is worst)
Otule +9
Derrick +8
Juan +7
Jamil +4

[CTWarrior]

Some interesting data...interesting to look at not only on-court +/-, but also off court +/-, where in off court a positive number is a "negative" as it is the difference in points scored while player is on bench - points allowed while player is on bench...essentially off court +/- suggests the best relationship between scoring and defending....if you have a negative number in off court...means team is scoring less and giving up more while you are on bench..

http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2014/02/27/georgetown-73-marquette-75/plus_minus

Highlights - on court:
Gardner +9
Mayo +9
Dawson +7
Jake + 4

Off court +/- (Highest number is worst)
Otule +9
Derrick +8
Juan +7
Jamil +4

I figured someone would post this sooner or later.  We had the big push to come back from early 15-4 deficit with Derrick and Otule and Juan on the bench, which I think is the big reason for these numbers. 

[NersEllenson]

I figured someone would post this sooner or later.  We had the big push to come back from early 15-4 deficit with Derrick and Otule and Juan on the bench, which I think is the big reason for these numbers. 

At one point we had a lineup of:  Derrick, Jake, Juan, Steve and Otule. 

Also found it baffling at toward end of game when Buzz got the "best" defensive lineup on the floor out of a timeout - Derrick, Jake, Juan, Jamil, Chris...he had them playing zone...and GTown knocked down a 3.

Why play zone against a great backcourt, when you've put your best man to man defending lineup in the game?

[GGGG]

I actually thought they should have played zone more often.  It stopped their pick and roll game almost completely.

[Windyplayer]

I actually thought they should have played zone more often.  It stopped their pick and roll game almost completely.

Oh really? Smith-Rivera had two wide-open 3s toward the end of the game as a result of zone break-downs that he uncharacteristically clanked. After those, Buzz went back to man-to-man knowing that he dodged a few bullets.

[mattyv1908]

Ners -

You do realize that +/- stats have been proven to be random over multiple seasons for NBA players and therefore a single game snapshot of a random stat over a couple hundred games is even more random and has no meaning.

Look at offensive efficiency ratings as they factor pts/poss which is way more predictive of how much a player helps his team.

[GGGG]

Oh really? Smith-Rivera had two wide-open 3s toward the end of the game as a result of zone break-downs that he uncharacteristically clanked. After those, Buzz went back to man-to-man knowing that he dodged a few bullets.

Thanks...I must not have noticed that.  The zone was effective earlier in the game.

[MarquetteDano]

Some interesting data...interesting to look at not only on-court +/-, but also off court +/-, where in off court a positive number is a "negative" as it is the difference in points scored while player is on bench - points allowed while player is on bench...essentially off court +/- suggests the best relationship between scoring and defending....if you have a negative number in off court...means team is scoring less and giving up more while you are on bench..

http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2014/02/27/georgetown-73-marquette-75/plus_minus

Highlights - on court:
Gardner +9
Mayo +9
Dawson +7
Jake + 4

Off court +/- (Highest number is worst)
Otule +9
Derrick +8
Juan +7
Jamil +4

This really shows the limitations of +/.  Mayo was not good offensively or defensively and yet he tied for the highest +/- in the game.  Not a consistently reliable stat.

[noblewarrior]

Some interesting data...interesting to look at not only on-court +/-, but also off court +/-, where in off court a positive number is a "negative" as it is the difference in points scored while player is on bench - points allowed while player is on bench...essentially off court +/- suggests the best relationship between scoring and defending....if you have a negative number in off court...means team is scoring less and giving up more while you are on bench..

http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2014/02/27/georgetown-73-marquette-75/plus_minus

Highlights - on court:
Gardner +9
Mayo +9
Dawson +7
Jake + 4

Off court +/- (Highest number is worst)
Otule +9
Derrick +8
Juan +7
Jamil +4

To me, this reflects Buzz's substitution patterns for this game.

[mileskishnish72]

Gotta agree, noble - this shows what one would expect given the numbers and types of possessions played. Chris had on court +/- of -7, and off-court +/- of +9. Does that mean he's a bad defender??? It more likely reflects the fact that he played more defensive possessions than offensive. His overall rating comes out to a -16 but clearly he wasn't the #1 detrimental factor out there.

[NersEllenson]

Ners -

You do realize that +/- stats have been proven to be random over multiple seasons for NBA players and therefore a single game snapshot of a random stat over a couple hundred games is even more random and has no meaning.

Look at offensive efficiency ratings as they factor pts/poss which is way more predictive of how much a player helps his team.

I agree that +/- is an iffy measure as a whole, and doesn't always provide a true reflection of overall value - as a lot can have to do with opposition rotation/substitution patterns, etc.

Just posted to highlight last nights game, as has been posted alternatively when the +/- stat would support Derrick's play and some want to jump on that as conclusive proof...of overall value.

I liked the minute distribution last night between John and Derrick, and would be pleased to see similar moving forward..unless one of the two clearly is on their A game...

[Eldon]

+/- is better than nothing I guess, but it strikes me as an effective measurement only if the sample size spans a long time (i.e., same player over a long period of time).  And even then there are other things that you'd have to control for (e.g., player development).  Perhaps +/- over time AND compared to the league average +/- for that position over that same time period.

[jesmu84]

I agree that +/- is an iffy measure as a whole, and doesn't always provide a true reflection of overall value - as a lot can have to do with opposition rotation/substitution patterns, etc.

Just posted to highlight last nights game, as has been posted alternatively when the +/- stat would support Derrick's play and some want to jump on that as conclusive proof...of overall value.

I liked the minute distribution last night between John and Derrick, and would be pleased to see similar moving forward..unless one of the two clearly is on their A game...

But what are you highlighting, exactly?

I think noble pointed out what the +/- of THIS game showed - some players played on the "offensive" lineup and some played on the "defensive" lineup.

[NersEllenson]

But what are you highlighting, exactly?

I think noble pointed out what the +/- of THIS game showed - some players played on the "offensive" lineup and some played on the "defensive" lineup.

That point holds no validity..because if the "defensive" lineup did their job (if you will) they'd be a +0...no points against...plus other than maybe 3 possessions where Buzz took a time out to specifically inject the offensive lineup in the game...the defensive lineup had offensive opportunities as well...which would factor into on court +/1

Additionally - for example Otule being on the bench...his off court stat was +9 - team scored 9 more than it yielded - which is in direct contrast with what you would intuitively think...and not to mention Derrick and Juan had the 2nd and 3rd worst off court +/-, whereby when they were OFF the floor, the team was growing a lead...which flies in the face of the thinking their defensive value is greater than the deficiencies they pose offensively...

[GGGG]

That point holds no validity..because if the "defensive" lineup did their job (if you will) they'd be a +0...no points against...

Even if a defensive line up only allowed an offense to score 10% of the time...and an offensive line up only scored 10% of the time...the offensive line up would "win" the +/- even though they are clearly a bigger problem than the defense.

[NersEllenson]

Even if a defensive line up only allowed an offense to score 10% of the time...and an offensive line up only scored 10% of the time...the offensive line up would "win" the +/- even though they are clearly a bigger problem than the defense.

I can't wrap my head around the point you are trying to make here...but let's not kid ourselves that the defensive lineup didn't have ample opportunities at the other end of the floor....as in the first 5 minutes to start the game and 2nd half practically..

[GGGG]

Let me give you the example of Juan and Todd.  During the last 6:14, Todd and Juan substituted for one another until both had four separate stints in the game.

Juan was -8....and Todd was +6.  So was Todd really 14 points better than Juan in that stretch?  Nope.  Juan was playing primarily on defense while Todd was primarily on offense.  During this time, Marquette's lead shrank from 4 to 2.

Before that 6:14 stretch, both were +3 for the game.

This is why it doesn't tell the whole story.

[NersEllenson]

Let me give you the example of Juan and Todd.  During the last 6:14, Todd and Juan substituted for one another until both had four separate stints in the game.

Juan was -8....and Todd was +6.  So was Todd really 14 points better than Juan in that stretch?  Nope.  Juan was playing primarily on defense while Todd was primarily on offense.  During this time, Marquette's lead shrank from 4 to 2.

Before that 6:14 stretch, both were +3 for the game.

This is why it doesn't tell the whole story.

Still having a hard time wrapping my head around your point...but I'll just say okay...and we both have agreed in the past that +/- as a whole, doesn't tell the whole story...which I also acknowledged in this thread.

I did think Buzz overcoached it last night...tried to get too clever...we got a win, so happy of course...yet you simply do not see the insane number of substitutions he reverted to again last night..and I'd hypothesize that you don't see it, because it isn't an overall effective strategy.

[GGGG]

Still having a hard time wrapping my head around your point...but I'll just say okay...and we both have agreed in the past that +/- as a whole, doesn't tell the whole story...which I also acknowledged in this thread.

I did think Buzz overcoached it last night...tried to get too clever...we got a win, so happy of course...yet you simply do not see the insane number of substitutions he reverted to again last night..and I'd hypothesize that you don't see it, because it isn't an overall effective strategy.

My point is that +/- is always going to make the offensive player look better in these types of situations because of a lack of a downside...and make the defensive player look worse due to a lack of an upside.

And I did see the game and thought Buzz's substitutions were fine.  He did was he always does and it has worked for him before...just like last night.

[UticaBusBarn]

The point is pretty simple. The Warriors have a good front court, and a fairly weak back court. For them to win, as Coach Williams says, they have very little margin for error.

Statistically, this is a very average team, with most of its offensive and defensive rankings outside of the top 100. Yet, they are in third place of the Big East.

Why? Because of late they have (finally) become driven and tough (Warriors) ... as in, if your family has to eat, or if my family has to eat, you go hungry.

[Lennys Tap]

I can't wrap my head around the point you are trying to make here...but let's not kid ourselves that the defensive lineup didn't have ample opportunities at the other end of the floor....as in the first 5 minutes to start the game and 2nd half practically..

I don't know why Sultan's point is so difficult for you to wrap your head around. Say Gardner and Otule each play 15 offensive and defensive possessions and then are subbed offense/defense for the next 5. If they both average scoring 1 point on each offensive possession and allowing 1 point per defensive possession Gardner will be a +5 (15-15+5) and Otule will be a -5 (15-15-5) even though they were equally effective. Capishe?