Nova Stats

[Henry Sugar]

Buzz is right that the offense was generally good enough. 1.17 ppp should be enough to win, but Marquette gave up 1.27 ppp.

There have been comments that MU lost due to offensive rebounds. I disagree. MU lost eFG%, Turnover Rate, AND offensive rebounding. The overall OR% was not significantly in Nova's favor.

One more point - Jake Thomas had the second worst "net points" game since I've been tracking the data. That's the second worst out of 900 data points. (The worst was Jamil Wilson @Florida)

[harigtad]

seems like that FG% for MQ is way above normal (might be the highest of the season?)

[Lennys Tap]

Yes, Villanova only beat us on the boards by a little. The point is that rebounding against a smaller team should have been decidedly in our favor. But our guards were out rebounded 14-6, 14-1 without Derrick. Other than Derrick, we got 1 rebound in 65 minutes from our backcourt. We were slow to the ball all game. If we compete with Nova's backcourt for loose balls and long rebounds we win.

[Henry Sugar]

Yes, Villanova only beat us on the boards by a little. The point is that rebounding against a smaller team should have been decidedly in our favor. But our guards were out rebounded 14-6, 14-1 without Derrick. Other than Derrick, we got 1 rebound in 65 minutes from our backcourt. We were slow to the ball all game. If we compete with Nova's backcourt for loose balls and long rebounds we win.

Remember that 50% of offense is eFG%, and we lost that by more than we lost OR%.

MU would have had to grab 50% of all ORs or they'd have to hold Nova to 22% OR% in order to overcome the other factors.

[Lennys Tap]

Remember that 50% of offense is eFG%, and we lost that by more than we lost OR%.

MU would have had to grab 50% of all ORs or they'd have to hold Nova to 22% OR% in order to overcome the other factors.

We got rolled in the overtime, where there eFG% was off the charts. So, yes, when you include the overtime that looks to be the case. I'm talking about what it would have taken to win the game in regulation. We lost a stat (maybe the only stat) we figured to dominate during regulation. Take care of that part of our business and we don't play overtime.

[madtownwarrior]

wow - think we could have won in regulation...

if Mayo does not get hot, does not hit a crazy three from the corner, does not get a fortuitous 3 pt foul, does not converts all three FT's and the refs don't gift wrap a call for MU at the end, this game is not even close to OT...

must have been watching a different game...

We got rolled in the overtime, where there eFG% was off the charts. So, yes, when you include the overtime that looks to be the case. I'm talking about what it would have taken to win the game in regulation. We lost a stat (maybe the only stat) we figured to dominate during regulation. Take care of that part of our business and we don't play overtime.

[MarquetteDano]

Remember that 50% of offense is eFG%, and we lost that by more than we lost OR%.

MU would have had to grab 50% of all ORs or they'd have to hold Nova to 22% OR% in order to overcome the other factors.

Henry, dig your posts but this is one of those times that stats lie.  In regulation we had quite a few possessions where our defense was solid and gave away an offensive rebound without boxing out and then they had an easy two or three.

What was their eFG% after an offensive rebound?

What is even worse is that we gave up all those offensive rebounds not playing zone and with no transition offense.  I can live with giving up offensive rebounds if you end up with a decent amount of transition baskets when you do get the board.  I do not recall many off of rebounds.

To me this game was lost not boxing out after a good defensive possession.  How we could give up so many offensive rebounds when we have considerable size advantage, equal to or better athletes, and no transition game I will never know.

[Lennys Tap]

wow - think we could have won in regulation...

if Mayo does not get hot, does not hit a crazy three from the corner, does not get a fortuitous 3 pt foul, does not converts all three FT's and the refs don't gift wrap a call for MU at the end, this game is not even close to OT...

must have been watching a different game...

I was watching the game in which much smaller Villanova scored a whole bunch of points (including at least 3 3 point shots) after missing their first shot. I was watching the game where almost every loose ball went to Villanova. I was watching the game where Steve missed two lay ups with nobody within 5 feet of him. And the game where we missed 10 free throws in the first 25 minutes. Lots of things could have rendered Todd's late game heroics unnecessary, but The missed shots don't bother me as much as what is either tentative play or lack of effort.

[Henry Sugar]

We got rolled in the overtime, where there eFG% was off the charts. So, yes, when you include the overtime that looks to be the case. I'm talking about what it would have taken to win the game in regulation. We lost a stat (maybe the only stat) we figured to dominate during regulation. Take care of that part of our business and we don't play overtime.

Both teams had the same number of offensive rebounds. Villanova had one less turnover and two more defensive rebounds.

Villanova hit ten three point shots. Maybe next time the gameplan should be "don't let the opponent shoot 28 threes"

Again, MU would have had to grab 50% of all ORs or they'd have to hold Nova to 22% OR% in order to overcome the other factors.

[NersEllenson]

Both teams had the same number of offensive rebounds. Villanova had one less turnover and two more defensive rebounds.

Villanova hit ten three point shots. Maybe next time the gameplan should be "don't let the opponent shoot 28 threes"

Again, MU would have had to grab 50% of all ORs or they'd have to hold Nova to 22% OR% in order to overcome the other factors.

MU faces such a huge deficit every game due to its not only poor 3pt shooting percentage, but also its overall lack of attempts.  We simply have a hard time even getting 3 point shots! And the ones we do, are usually quite rushed/not good looks which explains the low percentage.  Pretty sure this has to do with us having a PG who simply cannot break down the defense off the dribble, nor be a willing 3 point shooter.

If you don't have a good 3 point offense in college hoops - you are going to struggle to win games.  We are 314 in the country in 3 point percentage and 328 in the country on 3 point, point distribution.

I suspect playing Dawson, Mayo, Jake with Jamil and Davante would open things up quite a bit...mix in Steve Taylor in place of Jake on occasion...

[GGGG]

MU faces such a huge deficit every game due to its not only poor 3pt shooting percentage, but also its overall lack of attempts.  We simply have a hard time even getting 3 point shots! And the ones we do, are usually quite rushed/not good looks which explains the low percentage.  Pretty sure this has to do with us having a PG who simply cannot break down the defense off the dribble, nor be a willing 3 point shooter.

Here is the per game 3 point shooting last year compared to this year so far.

2012-13:  4.2/14.17  .2963  (35 games)
2013-14:  4.6/15.35  .2996  (20 games)

I know that you now have this idea that everything that ails this team is due to Derrick Wilson, but as you can see, we are basically taking and hitting as many threes this year as we did last year. 

"Eye test" fails again.

[Lennys Tap]

Henry, dig your posts but this is one of those times that stats lie.  In regulation we had quite a few possessions where our defense was solid and gave away an offensive rebound without boxing out and then they had an easy two or three.

What was their eFG% after an offensive rebound?

What is even worse is that we gave up all those offensive rebounds not playing zone and with no transition offense.  I can live with giving up offensive rebounds if you end up with a decent amount of transition baskets when you do get the board.  I do not recall many off of rebounds.

To me this game was lost not boxing out after a good defensive possession.  How we could give up so many offensive rebounds when we have considerable size advantage, equal to or better athletes, and no transition game I will never know.

+1

[MUfan12]

We also had a point guard that was really good at attacking seams, pushed the ball more effectively in transition, and made passes on time and on target.

So yeah, the shooting percentages from 3 might be equal, but it doesn't mean PG play isn't a big issue.

[MU82]

Here is the per game 3 point shooting last year compared to this year so far.

2012-13:  4.2/14.17  .2963  (35 games)
2013-14:  4.6/15.35  .2996  (20 games)

I know that you now have this idea that everything that ails this team is due to Derrick Wilson, but as you can see, we are basically taking and hitting as many threes this year as we did last year. 

"Eye test" fails again.

Yes, but this year we don't hit as many mid-range 2's, either. And we get little penetration from our guards to create either for themselves or others. And, in general, our defense isn't as good.

It is very difficult to go into a game knowing you will be outscored by 21 or more from 3-point range and by 30 or more by the opponent's backcourt because it is a guard's game.

We overcame our 3-point situation last year by getting very good all-around play from several players and a break-out season by Vander Blue, who became a dependable (and sometimes deadly) mid-range shooter.

And don't forget ... we almost lost to Davidson in great part because we couldn't hit 3s -- and then we beat them because we did hit three late 3s. Then we ultimately lost to Syracuse because we couldn't hit a shot more than about 30 inches from the basket.

You gotta make perimeter shots in today's basketball -- because your opponent will! (And it would be nice if you grab the rebounds when they miss theirs.)

[ATL MU Warrior]

We also had a point guard that was really good at attacking seams, pushed the ball more effectively in transition, and made passes on time and on target.

So yeah, the shooting percentages from 3 might be equal, but it doesn't mean PG play isn't a big issue.

APG     
Junior Cadougan    '12-13    3.8               
Derrick Wilson       '13-'14    3.8   

Yep, Junior was so much better at attacking seams and creating offense.           

[GGGG]

Yes, but this year we don't hit as many mid-range 2's, either. And we get little penetration from our guards to create either for themselves or others. And, in general, our defense isn't as good.

It is very difficult to go into a game knowing you will be outscored by 21 or more from 3-point range and by 30 or more by the opponent's backcourt because it is a guard's game.

We overcame our 3-point situation last year by getting very good all-around play from several players and a break-out season by Vander Blue, who became a dependable (and sometimes deadly) mid-range shooter.

I don't disagree with the mid-range jumper point.  However I would like to see where we end up with scoring.  

Right now we actually are scoring more ppg (72) than we did last year (68).  Although undoubtedly that will decrease as the season wears on.  Even if we only score 60 for the next ten games, we will be at 67.7.

[MUfan12]

                                         APG     
Junior Cadougan    '12-13    3.8               
Derrick Wilson       '13-'14    3.8   

Yep, Junior was so much better at attacking seams and creating offense.           

You honestly can't be arguing that Derrick is an equal to Junior offensively.

[GooooMarquette]

                                         APG     
Junior Cadougan    '12-13    3.8               
Derrick Wilson       '13-'14    3.8   

Yep, Junior was so much better at attacking seams and creating offense.           

Facts might get in the way of blaming everything on Derrick.

[MUfan12]

Facts might get in the way of blaming everything on Derrick.

Because there's no middle ground between saying PG play is an issue, and blaming everything on Derrick.

[Tugg Speedman]

Facts might get in the way of blaming everything on Derrick.

+1

[ATL MU Warrior]

You honestly can't be arguing that Derrick is an equal to Junior offensively.

This is what you said:  "We also had a point guard that was really good at attacking seams, pushed the ball more effectively in transition, and made passes on time and on target."

Making passes on time and on target to me = an assist.  Maybe you meant a pass on time and on target that didn't lead to a score?  Doesn't make much sense but that could be what you meant I guess.  

Derrick this year and Junior last year are averaging the same number of assists per game.  Not sure in what other way you could argue that one is better at creating offense for others than by the number of assists they get.  

Also not sure why you are now trying to change the argument to whether or not Derrick is equal to Junior offensively.  Junior scored about 3-4 more points per game than Derrick so that's obviously not the case.  

[WellsstreetWanderer]

getting an assist for passing to Davante who is 10' from the basket and backs his man down to the hoop for a layup or passing to Todd who drives,steps back ,creating space, and drains a three are not equal to passing to a cutting ST or driving the lane and  passing out to an open shooter. there are assists and then there are assists.

[ATL MU Warrior]

getting an assist for passing to Davante who is 10' from the basket and backs his man down to the hoop for a layup or passing to Todd who drives,steps back ,creating space, and drains a three are not equal to passing to a cutting ST or driving the lane and  passing out to an open shooter. there are assists and then there are assists.

Oh, ok.

How many of each kind does Derrick have?  How many did Junior have? 

Once we know that then we should be able to truly compare one against the other. 

[GGGG]

getting an assist for passing to Davante who is 10' from the basket and backs his man down to the hoop for a layup or passing to Todd who drives,steps back ,creating space, and drains a three are not equal to passing to a cutting ST or driving the lane and  passing out to an open shooter. there are assists and then there are assists.

And of course you have done an in-depth study of Junior's versus Derrick's assists?  

[ATL MU Warrior]

And of course you have done an in-depth study of Junior's versus Derrick's assists?  

Beat you by :45!